【目录】《中国与世界经济》（China & World Economy）2021年第4期

China & World Economy  / 1–34, Vol. 29,  No. 4, 2021

Reforming the World Trade Organization: Practitioner Perspectives from China, the EU, and the US

Bernard Hoekman, Robert Wolfe

Abstract

China, the European Union, and the United States are the world’s largest traders. They have a big stake in a multilateral system of rules to manage the inevitable frictions among interdependent economies organized on different principles. This paper discusses elements of the WTO reform agenda through the lens of positions taken by these three WTO members, identifying the extent of alignment on key subjects, including transparency, dispute settlement, and plurilateral negotiations. We draw on findings of a recent research project on WTO reform and use responses to an expert survey to assess the prospects for actions that all three trade powers might support. Our premise is that reforming WTO is a necessary condition for the organization to be a more salient forum for the three large economies to address trade tensions, and that agreement among these three trade powers, in turn, is necessary to resolve the problems of the WTO.

China & World Economy  / 35–62, Vol. 29,  No. 4, 2021

Urban Systems: Understanding and Predicting the Spatial Distribution of China’s Population

Pengfei Li, Ming Lu

Abstract

With urbanization and population migration, some Chinese cities fall into decline whereas others prosper. Using nighttime light data, we redefine the city based on economic function and evaluate the city size distribution in representative countries. The results provide evidence not only for Zipf’s law, but also for a distortion in China’s current city size distribution. This study proposes a feasible method to predict urban population distribution based on the role of geographical factors in regional development, following the idea of spatial equilibrium. This prediction suggests that the divergence of city size in China tends to be pronounced, with inter-regional income disparity being narrowed and the city size distribution following Zipf’s law. The Chinese government should further relax restrictions on population inflow into large cities and prepare for more migration in the future.

China & World Economy  / 63–88, Vol. 29,  No. 4, 2021

Consumption and Income Poverty in Rural China: 1995–2018

Yanfeng Chen, Qingjie Xia, Xiaolin Wang

Abstract

This paper studies consumption and income poverty in rural China during the period from 1995 to 2018 using Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) data. It finds that the wellbeing of Chinese rural residents has improved significantly during this period as part of China’s rapid industrialization and economic growth. The incidence of poverty has fallen substantially, either measured in terms of income or consumption. However, consumption poverty is not consistent with income poverty. It was the substantial growth of consumption or income that brought about the sharp fall in poverty, whereas the redistribution of consumption or income in particular during the period from 2002 to 2018 was unfavorable for poverty reduction. A large number of rural household workers moved away from household farming to participate in local or urban non-farming activities, resulting in a fall in poverty in the households that engaged purely in farming, and economic growth led to a sharp fall in poverty within different rural household groups.

China & World Economy  / 89–112, Vol. 29,  No. 4, 2021

How Do China’s Importing Firms Respond to Non-tariff Measures?

Xiaodan Hu, Yunhua Tian, Yanping Zhou, Lu Feng

Abstract

After the formation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, most countries gradually reduced their import tariffs to a fairly low level. However, the reduced tariffs could not be simply read as a reduction in trade barriers. Indeed, many suspect that countries tend to use more non-tariff measures (NTMs), substituting them for tariff barriers, to protect their domestic economies. This paper uses newly compiled and detailed Chinese NTM data, together with highly disaggregated firm import data and manufacturing firm operational data, to investigate the impact of China’s import-related NTMs on firm imports. The main empirical results show that, as in the case of tariff barriers, China’s trade policy NTMs mainly inhibit firms’ intermediate imports. In contrast, China’s public policy NTMs significantly improve the intensive and extensive margins of firm’s intermediate imports and raise the prices and quality of imported inputs. The greater the extent to which a firm engages in processing trade, the larger is the promoting effect of public policy NTMs on the firm’s import margins for intermediate inputs, and the greater is the restricting effect on the prices and the quality of the firm’s imported inputs.

China & World Economy  / 113–141, Vol. 29,  No. 4, 2021

Impacts of Import Refusals on Agricultural Exports during Pandemics: Implications for China

Rui Mao, Ziyi Jia, Kevin Chen

Abstract

Pandemic outbreaks disrupt agricultural trade. The possible strengthening of import barriers to products from countries at the epicenter of a pandemic by their trade partners could aggravate this situation. This paper examines the responses of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), import refusals, and subsequent trade impacts on the agricultural exports from the developing countries that were the epicenters of four pandemics in the past two decades. Using monthly data for the period 2002–2020, we find increased import refusals and amplified trade-impeding impacts on agricultural exports during pandemic outbreaks. Increased import refusals and the amplification of the trade-impeding effect of import refusals were especially large when China was the epicenter. We further examine possible differences in these results across products and FDA inspection methods, and the main conclusions remain robust. This paper offers a better understanding of the economic outcomes of pandemic outbreaks and provides policy suggestions for China.

China & World Economy  / 142–166, Vol. 29,  No. 4, 2021

Does Fintech Narrow the Gender Wage Gap? Evidence from China

Qing Guo, Siyu Chen, Xiangquan Zeng

Abstract

Information and communication technology promotes the rapid development of fintech, which has a far-reaching impact on wage distribution in China. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey and the Index of Digital Financial Inclusion, this study examines the impact of fintech on the gender wage gap. We find that fintech (i) narrows the gender wage gap; (ii) reduces capital constraints and operating costs, thereby promoting female entrepreneurship, driving more women into employment, and enabling women to increase their wages and bargaining power within the household; and (iii) positively impacts the wages of women (and men) who have lower family economic status, and helps women (but not men) counter the risk of decline in wages caused by childbearing and caring under the two-child policy. These findings have important policy implications and provide evidence of women’s improving economic conditions leading to a reduced gender wage gap.

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