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法国千亿欧元经济复苏计划出炉

iGDP 零碳录 CCNT 2023-02-03

编者按:法国为期两年的1000亿欧元的经济复苏计划于9月3日发布。其中300亿欧元用于生态转型。请看欧洲动态法国(EURACTIV France)对此的详细报道。


图片来源:Energy Live News


法国总理让·卡斯特克斯(Jean Castex)于9月3日公布了一项详细的,两年内总额达1000亿欧元的国家经济复苏计划。法国智库可持续发展与国际关系研究所(IDDRI)的负责人对欧洲动态法国(EURACTIV France)评论说,此项计划与柏林和欧盟委员会制定的计划一致。
French Prime Minister Jean Castex unveiled on Thursday (3 September) a detailed national economic recovery plan amounting to €100 billion over two years. The plan is in line with those drawn up by Berlin and the European Commission, according to the head of the influential French think tank IDDRI. EURACTIV France reports.

法国的计划是“宏大的”,具有“历史规模”,并且对于环境而言似乎是“巨大的一步”。基调已定,信息也很明确:政府没有采取“中间措施”来恢复因新冠危机而倒下的经济,而是押注于所谓的“未来部门”。
France’s plan is “massive”, of “historic magnitude”, and appears to be a “giant step” for the environment. The tone has been set and the message is clear: the government is not taking half-measures to revive an economy brought down by the COVID-19 health crisis and is betting on what it calls the “sectors of the future”.

“这项千亿计划的体量几乎是为应对2008年金融危机实施的复苏计划的四倍。按照国家财富的比例,这是迄今为止欧洲主要国家宣布的规模最大的经济刺激计划。最重要的是,这是到2022年能够帮助我们的经济恢复到危机前的财富水平的资金数量。”总理卡斯特克斯说。
“One hundred billion is almost four times more than the recovery plan implemented to deal with the [financial] crisis of 2008. It is, in proportion to national wealth, the largest stimulus package announced to date in a major European country. Above all, it is the amount of money our economy needs to return to our pre-crisis levels of wealth by 2022,” said Prime Minister Castex.

图片来源:Financial Times


该计划被称为“法国重启”,约占法国GDP的9.5%,高于德国和英国宣布的复苏计划,后者分别占其该国GDP的6.9%和8.6%。但从绝对值上看,柏林宣布的计划更雄心,总额达1300亿欧元。
Dubbed“France Relance”,the plan represents about 9.5% of the country’s GDP, higher than the recovery plans announced by Germany and the UK, which account for 6.9% and 8.6% of their respective GDPs. In absolute terms, however, Berlin had announced a more ambitious plan amounting to €130 billion.

法国的复苏计划包括围绕生态转型(300亿欧元)、企业竞争力(350亿欧元)以及社会和领土凝聚力(350亿欧元)在内的70项措施。
France’s recovery plan includes 70 measures centred around the ecological transition (€30 billion), business competitiveness (€35 billion) and social and territorial cohesion (€35 billion).

在计划的1000亿欧元中,400亿欧元将来自欧盟的复苏计划,但要到明年夏天欧盟才能支付。但是,由于今年经济萎缩预计将达到创纪录的11%,因此必须提前筹集资金,以使国家能够快速复苏。
Of the €100 billion planned, €40 billion will come from the EU’s recovery plan – but will not be paid out until next summer. But because the economy is expected to shrink by a record 11% this year, the funds will have to be brought forward so it can recover fast.

这也是政府旨在到2022年恢复危机前的活动水平,并尽可能减少失业的原因。为此,政府正寄希望于供给侧政策,即长期投资和对企业的支持。
That is why the government’s aim is to get back to pre-crisis activity levels by 2022 and start cutting unemployment as soon as possible. To this end, the government is banking on an accelerated supply-side policy, i.e. on long-term investments and support for businesses.

但是随着下一次总统选举将在2022年举行,这一细节在政治上具有很大的分量。
But with the next presidential elections coming up in 2022, this detail carries a great deal of political weight.




法国、德国和欧洲计划之间的统一

Alignment between the French, German and European plans

IDDRI的所长塞巴斯蒂安·特雷耶(Sébastien Treyer)表示:“该计划与德国以及欧盟委员会的计划产生了强烈共鸣。对于这片大陆的参与者而言,这是一个强烈的政治和经济信号:生态转型即将到来。”
Sébastien Treyer, director-general of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), said “this plan resonates strongly with the German plan and with that of the European Commission. It is a strong political and economic signal for the continent’s players: an ecological transition is coming”.

实际上,巴黎将其复苏计划的三分之一用于生态转型,遵循了欧盟委员会确定的方针。
In fact, by devoting one third of its recovery plan to ecological transition, Paris is following the line defined by the European Commission.

图片来源:Open Organization


为此,政府将建筑能源改造、低碳交通和铁路放在首位,同时将绿色氢能作为降低工业部门碳排放的手段。
To this end, the government is giving priority to the energy renovation of buildings, low-carbon mobility and railways, as well as to green hydrogen as a means of decarbonising the industrial sector.

根据特雷耶的说法,这种策略使法国“与德国处于同一个阵营”。
According to Treyer, this strategy puts France “in the same league as Germany.”

此外,通过发展绿色氢能行业,法国还表明了与德国合作的意愿,这使得扩张绿色氢能行业成为法国加快向低碳经济转型的主要优先事项之一。
Moreover, by developing the green hydrogen sector, France is also signalling its willingness to cooperate with Germany, which has made expanding the sector one of its key priorities in accelerating its transition to a low-carbon economy.


细节决定成败
‘The devil is in the details’

但是,剩下的700亿欧元对企业竞争力以及社会和领土凝聚力意味着什么呢?
But what about the remaining €70 billion, meant for business competitiveness and social and territorial cohesion?

特雷耶说,人们应该能够检验复苏计划是否真正有益于生态转型。他同时强调:“监测条款是关键问题之一,这是要打赢的战斗之一。”
One should be able to check whether the recovery plan will truly benefit the ecological transition, according to Treyer. “Monitoring conditions is one of the key issues, it is one of the battles to be won,” he stressed.

IDDRI的负责人还指出,结构性的计划要比一系列困难企业紧急资金援助一揽子计划要好,因为它向所有经济参与者发出了持久的信号。在此基础上,可以对复苏计划的环境和社会效益进行良好的监控。
IDDRI’s director also noted that a structured plan is better than a succession of emergency financial aid packages for companies in difficulty, because it gives a lasting signal to all economic players. And on such a basis, it is possible to organise good monitoring of the recovery plan’s environmental and social effectiveness.

“但是细节决定成败,在这种情况下,在计划的实施中。当支出的压力越来越大时,就必须要有结构化的渠道:这对于建筑改造,对于农业部门蛋白质生产的建立尤其必要,”他警告说。
“But the devil is in the details and, in this case, in the implementation of the plan. When the pressure to spend a lot becomes strong, it will be necessary to have structured channels: this is particularly necessary for the renovation of buildings, but also for the establishment of protein production in the agricultural sector,” he warned.

为此,特雷耶建议成立一个监察委员会,这是2008年未采取的措施。但是,尽管他认为监测条款已经改善并获得了政治认识,但仍未宣布。
To this end, Treyer recommends setting up a monitoring committee, a measure that was not taken in 2008. However, while he believes that monitoring conditions have improved and gained political awareness, they have not yet been announced.

“我们还没有足够的可视性来进行这种监测,该如何组织?我们没能参与进这场特殊的辩论。”他补充说。
“We do not yet have enough visibility to do this kind of monitoring – how will it be organised? We have not been involved in this particular debate,” he added.


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