解读 | 现实很无情：朝鲜已是核武国家
North Korea’s once-unthinkable nuclear and missile capabilities are, as long as the country wants, here to stay.
With each North Korean nuclear or missile test, U.S. officials go through a ritual that appears increasingly at odds with reality.
They declare that they will not tolerate the rogue programs they have demonstrated little ability to slow, much less remove. They organize more of the talks or sanctions that have failed to alter North Korea’s strategic calculus. And they issue threats that, if carried out, would either change little or risk an all-out war.
But the best that Washington can hope for, analysts and former officials increasingly say, may be to freeze the program in place. Even this would most likely come at a steep cost, a grim recognition both that the threat is severe and that U.S. leverage is limited.
“The window for denuclearization closed a long time ago,” Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, wrote in a column this week.
“无核化的窗口很久以前就关闭了，”蒙特雷国际研究院(Monterey Institute of International Studies)东亚核不扩散项目(East Asia Nonproliferation Program)主任杰弗里·刘易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)本周在一篇专栏中写道。
The threat can be managed, he continued, only by “accepting the unacceptable” as a hard fact of life.
North Korea has achieved this through more than just missiles and bombs. By exploiting the dynamics of nuclear warfare and diplomacy, this otherwise weak country, whose economy is estimated to be smaller than that of Birmingham, Alabama, can dictate terms to the world’s most powerful country.
Ed Jones/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
— North Korea’s Asymmetrical Advantage
The United States now faces the hostile end of a nuclear deterrence model it was the first to develop.
In the early years of the Cold War, with American-allied West Germany facing down an overwhelming Soviet threat, the United States promised any attack would prompt nuclear retaliation.
It worked, deterring the Soviets even from an invasion of West Berlin that it could have completed in a matter of hours.
North Korea may have achieved a similarly effective deterrent. Though it would quickly lose any war, it could impose unacceptable costs on South Korea, Japan and potentially the United States.
North Korea has developed certain technologies that, taken together, demonstrate something analysts call “asymmetric retaliation,” with which it can guarantee a nuclear response to any attack.
Its medium-range missiles can hold South Korea and Japan, where tens of thousands of U.S. troops are based, at risk. Special canisters allow the missiles to remain pre-fueled, shortening launch time. Track-driven mobile launchers can hide in remote locations, forcing U.S. war planners to doubt that strikes could eliminate all such missiles before they are launched.
A missile submarine, while believed to be the only such vehicle in North Korea’s modest navy, increases the country’s odds of landing at least one retaliatory strike.
As a result, any conflict, even limited, would require the United States to be willing to sacrifice thousands of American lives and far more South Korean lives. Both countries are prosperous democracies — normally strengths that, up against the more risk-willing North Korea, become weaknesses.
US Forces Korea, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
— The Terrible Logic of First Strikes
There is another force working in North Korea’s favor, known as “first-strike instability,” in which both sides must fear that any exchange, however small, will escalate to nuclear launches.
In the Cold War, this kept the United States and the Soviet Union locked in a comparable balance of power. On the Korean Peninsula, it does something otherwise impossible: It puts North Korea on equal footing with the United States.
North Korea’s strategy makes clear that even a limited strike, either to eliminate its weapons or its leadership, would prompt a full retaliation.
Because North Korea sees the weapons as its only hope for survival, losing them risks provoking the country’s fears of a full invasion or an effort to topple the government. And because Pyongyang believes it can survive such a threat only by retaliating, its incentive is to do so before it is too late.
The United States’ overwhelming strength is, paradoxically, also a weakness. North Korean leaders must consider even a limited strike or accidental escalation as the start of a war they could lose within hours, virtually forcing them to immediately execute their full war plan.
This constrains U.S. options. Even a single strike — for example, to destroy a missile or merely to punish the government — risks provoking a full war.
This has held for decades. In 1969, when North Korea shot down a U.S. Navy plane, killing 31, the Nixon administration chose not to respond, fearing that North Korea would misperceive any attack as the start of a war. This logic has held as the stakes have grown.
Still, U.S. policy toward North Korea could always shift, particularly under President Donald Trump, who considers unpredictability an asset. While it is difficult to foresee a U.S. option that overcomes these risks, that does not prevent Washington from trying.
Ed Jones/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
— An Underlying Political Problem
In other such standoffs, military risks can be reduced by addressing the underlying political causes. Iran, for instance, was persuaded to surrender components of its nuclear program in exchange for integration into the global economy, which it saw as a more desirable way to secure its future.
North Korea’s political problems may be beyond amelioration.
“It is the regime’s awareness of a pending legitimacy crisis, not a fear of attack from without, which makes it behave ever more provocatively on the world stage,” B.R. Myers, a North Korea scholar at Dongseo University in South Korea, wrote in a 2010 book on North Korean ideology.
“它之所以在国际舞台上以愈发挑衅的姿态行事，是因为意识到即将迎来合法性危机，而非害怕来自外部的攻击，”韩国东西大学(Dongseo University)的朝鲜问题学者、曾在2010年以朝鲜的意识形态为题写过一本书的B·R·迈尔斯(B.R. Myers)说。
The country’s greatest threat is not American power but South Korean prosperity. Pyongyang’s official ideology of race-based nationalism requires describing the Korean people as one nation, temporarily divided.
But South Korea’s stronger economy and freer society leave the Pyongyang government with little reason to exist. Ending hostilities would risk a German-style reunification that would subsume the North under South Korean rule.
Only a perpetual state of near-war can stave off reunification while justifying the North Korean state. And only nuclear-armed missiles can make that standoff survivable.
No amount of U.S. power or will could impose a threat that North Korea will see as costlier than destruction nor offer an incentive more valuable than survival.
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
— A Symbolic North Korean Victory
William J. Perry, a former secretary of defense, said in January, “It is my strongly held view that we don’t have it in our power today to negotiate an end to the nuclear weapons program in North Korea.”
前国防部长威廉·J·佩里(William J. Perry)于今年1月表示，“我强烈认为，我们现在没有能力通过谈判终结朝鲜的核武器项目。”
Rather, he said, the United States should aim to “lessen the danger” by seeking an end to missile tests.
Mark Fitzpatrick, a scholar at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, this week advocated something known as “double suspension.” The United States would suspend its military exercises with the South while the North would suspend its nuclear and perhaps missile tests.
本周，国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的学者马克·菲茨帕特里克(Mark Fitzpatrick)倡导实施所谓的“双暂停”方案——即美国暂停与韩国的联合军事演习，朝鲜则暂停其核试验，或许还有导弹试验。
There has been a broader shift toward such thinking. The ambition is no longer to roll back North Korea’s programs, but to mitigate the risk they pose day to day.
This is a tacit acknowledgment that North Korea’s preferred negotiations model — in which the United States takes steps away from the Korean Peninsula in exchange for peace — is increasingly accepted.
Even if North Korea never achieves its vision of full victory, it has shifted the conversation to its terms.
Fitzpatrick and others say that the United States should pursue such steps only if they point toward North Korean disarmament, but some consider this optimistic.
Ankit Panda, a senior editor at The Diplomat, and Vipin Narang, a professor at MIT, wrote this week that there were “no good options” for the United States, “only bad ones and catastrophic ones.”
《外交官》(The Diplomat)杂志高级编辑安吉特·潘达(Ankit Panda)和麻省理工学院(MIT)教授维平·纳兰(Vipin Narang)于本周撰文称，对美国来说“没有好选项”，“只有坏选项和灾难性选项”。
Any viable deal with the North Koreans, they suggested, “would require explicit acceptance of their nuclear state status and significant rollbacks to the U.S. conventional military presence in the Northeast Asian theater, both of which are nonstarters for the United States.”
The likeliest outcome, they concluded, is that the world’s nations “learn to live with an ICBM-armed North Korea.”
“解读(The Interpreter)”是Max Fisher和Amanda Taub的专栏，内容是关于世界重大事件背后的想法与脉络。欢迎在Twitter上关注Max Fisher@Max_Fisher和Amanda Taub@amandataub。