CityReads│Why is migration both inevitable and desirable
Ian Goldin, Geoffrey Cameron, and Meera Balarajan,2011. Exceptional people: how migration shaped our world and will define our future, Princeton University Press.
source ：http://themigrationist.net/2013/03/26/mobility-past-present-and-future-inevitable-and-desirable/
“Exceptional People” takes the long view: the book starts with our shared migrating past when our common Homo sapiens ancestors first wandered out of Africa to populate the rest of the world. About a 125,000 ago the first Homo sapiens entered what is now the Middle East and slowly but steadily spread over the entire globe and its furthest corners – including Easter Island and other small islands in the Pacific Ocean which were only settled about 1500 years ago. Today, Homo sapiens are the most widely spread mammal in the world. With that introduction Goldin, Cameron and Balarajan seek to counter what has often been called the “sedentary bias” in migration studies (Bakewell, 2007), i.e. the assumption that being sedentary is the human norm and movement is the exception. Instead the authors go on to show over the next 250 pages that migration and migrants are a fundamental part of human life, history and civilization and that they have been for all of human history and that they will be for foreseeable future.
“Exceptional people” is split into three parts: Past, Present and Future. “Past” is a concise overview of human migrations through the ages, from pre-history to the present including the age of “gunpowder empires”, the Trans-Atlantic slave trade and indentured labour migration from South Asia and other places during colonialism. It provides a short overview of the first “Age of Migration” (1820-1920) when millions of Europeans headed for the “New World” in the USA, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Brazil to escape poverty, famine and persecution. Historical estimates suggest that more than 60 million Europeans left during this period, and the scale of this movement was unprecedented in human history. Currently, estimates suggest that there are 200 million migrants in the world; however, today’s migratory movements may outnumber the “Age of Migration” in absolute, but not in relative terms. The “Past” section concludes with the historical developments from 1914-1973, the impact of the two World Wars, the institutionalization of the international refugee regime as well as labor migration schemes to Western Europe that came to a sudden stop when oil prices quadrupled overnight in 1973.
The second part, titled “Present” seeks to cover a mix of historical developments since 1973, the major political and economic discussions, in particular the asylum crisis as well as the current political obsession with “managed migration” and border controls. The section also covers the main theoretical perspectives on migration: macro, meso and micro level explanations for movement are explained and discussed in a very accessible way.
The last part of the book entitled “Future” is undoubtedly the most controversial part. Unlike many academics, Goldin et al. are unafraid to engage in predictions and prescriptions for the future and they set out to argue that future immigration is necessary, desirable and inevitable. Based primarily on demographic forecasts for both the developing and developed world, the authors conclude that immigration is unlikely to subside in the 21st century. On the contrary, since sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are likely to go through a “population hump” where a large number of people enter the labor force at the same time, creating migratory pressures and migration is likely to increase. Simultaneously, the developed world is experiencing declining fertility and an aging population, this will eventually result in a contraction of the labor force as well as an increase in the dependency ratio between those active in the labor market and those outside of it (children and the elderly). This will also create a need for labor in sectors that hard to automate or outsource such as elderly and social care. These developments combined are likely to make immigration and human mobility necessary and inevitable in the 21st century.
Figure 1 A visualization of 20 years of global migration (1990-2010)
Soucer: http://www.humanosphere.org/basics/2014/04/two-important-visuals-new-global-migration-data/
1. By adapting, innovating, and combining knowledge across cultural barriers, migrants have advanced the frontier of development since humans departed from Africa, some 50,000--60,000 years ago. Outsiders have always encountered opposition from their adoptive societies. The names “immigrant” and “asylum seeker” have acquired negative connotations in many societies, echoing the ancient fear of the “barbarian.” Nevertheless, the direction of history points to the persistent expansion in the boundaries of community.
2. The twentieth century has witnessed the proliferation of states and the extension of government bureaucracies into the management of migration. International migration became regulated at the level of the nation-state.
3. In the current period, migration is defined as cross-border movement, and it has come to be seen as something to be managed-- a cost to be minimized rather than an opportunity to be embraced. The immigration regulations are using nation-based quotas to encompass a range of migration "channels": economic channels bringing in students and highly skilled migrants, as well as low-skilled workers; social channels recognizing families and particular ancestral groups; and political channels towards refugees and asylum seekers.
4. The contribution of migrants to economic and other aspects of life is severely underestimated. As a result, the focus of governments and public opinions often is on managing the perceived threats posed by migrants, rather than assisting them to fully participate in mainstream society.
5. International migration benefits sending countries, receiving countries and migrants themselves. In receiving countries, it promotes innovation, boosts economic growth, and enriches social diversity, and it is a boon for public finance. Sending countries have their economies stimulated by the financial and social feedback of migrant networks. Migrants reap the welfare benefits of higher wages, better education, and improved health when they move to relatively more developed countries.
6. High rates of migration do produce costs that are borne by particular localities and countries. The costs are often short-run, and they can be reduced through resource transfers and by building the capacity of public institutions to manage the social and administrative changes.
7. National competitiveness is already leading countries to dismantle barriers to mobility for high-skilled workers. Migration is a vital source of dynamism in economies and will become ever more important as societies age and fertility tumbles.
8. The twentieth century assumption that migration is a strictly national problem to be handled independently by nation-states is no longer valid. The most desirable future scenario for global migration agenda involves freer movement across borders. Global governance institutions are wanting.
9. While migration is a social phenomenon that stretches back to the first appearance of humans, globalization has made modern migration fundamentally different in its geographic scope, frequency, and intensity.
10. Migration processes are shaped by a range of interacting factors at the micro-, meso-, and macro-levels. At the micro-level, migration is a choice, albeit a constrained one. At the meso-level, networks and social capital inform the decision to migrate, lower barriers, and facilitate cross-border mobility for certain individuals and groups. Individual choices and social networks are created within the context of macro-level structures--demographic, economic, and political conditions that exert "push" and "pull" forces.
11. The migration transition--from sending country to receiving country--takes the form of a "migration hump" that follows rising wage levels. As real wages increase, more people can assume the costs and risks of migration, but as the wage gap closes, migration rates proceed to fall again.
12.The stylized migration process can be divided into five phases as a result of different network effects: pioneer effect, herd effect, network effect, weak network, and exclusion.
13. The impact of international migration is perhaps the most widely researched topic in the field of migration studies, but it is also the most commonly misunderstood in public discourse. Around 50 percent of respondents in both Europe and the United States perceive immigration as more of a problem than an opportunity, citing concerns about immigration leading to a rise in crime, increasing tax rates, and taking jobs away from natives. Governments respond to negative public perceptions by introducing populist regulations and policies intended to restrict the flow of migrants.
14. The impacts of migration are felt by receiving countries, sending countries, and individual migrants. In receiving countries, migration affects the economy through growth, wages, innovation. It also brings fiscal and social impacts upon host society. For sending countries--particularly developing countries--debate over the benefits of migration often revolves around remittances, the "brain drain", and the role of diasporas in development. When it comes to migrants themselves, the impacts of moving can be seen in terms of education, health, and employment, as well as vulnerability and the experience of isolation and xenophobia.
15. Both rich and poor countries would benefit from increased migration, with developing countries benefiting the most. Migration serves to reduce inequality between countries. Migration can even produce greater boon to the global economy and developing countries than free trade and development assistance combined.
16. While most of the benefits of migration are dispersed and generalized, the burden of bearing the costs falls narrowly and unevenly on particular people, sectors, and localities. The costs of migration are often short-run, while the full benefits of increased mobility appear only in the medium or long run.
17. The overwhelming conclusion of research on wages in that the impacts of immigration on native workers are very small at most, and may be irrelevant. Even if wages are slightly lower for the small share of the population competing directly with migrants for jobs, these affected workers gain through lower prices for goods and services. Higher level of immigration saw reductions in the costs of housekeeping, gardening, child care, dry cleaning, and other labor intensive services.
18. Migrant workers present additional competition for scarce jobs. This logic, however, is false. Low-skilled foreign workers often take jobs that are considered less desirable by natives, or they provide services--such as home care or child care--that release skilled workers into the labor market. Highly skilled migrants typically work in growing sectors of the economy, or in areas such as health care, education, and information technology that are short of native workers.
19. The US has long benefited from the creative and intellectual contributions of its migrants. Immigrants have made up more than three times as many Nobel Laureates, National Academy of Science members, and Academy Award film directors as have native-born American. Migrants have been founders of firms like GOOGLE, INTEL, PAYPAL, EBAY, AND YAHOO. More than a quarter of all global patent applications from the US are filed by migrants, although they are only about 12 percent of the population.
20. As high-skilled migration becomes more widely accepted and desirable for developed countries, public opposition to opening borders to larger flows of low-skill migrants is driven in part by concerns over their burden on public spending. There is a variation between countries in terms of migrant use of social services. In Canada, nonrefugee immigrants use less unemployment benefits, social security, and housing support than domestic residents. In many European countries, especially in Nordic countries, immigrants use more social security and unemployment benefits than the natives. In Germany, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and the UK, migrants are less or equally dependent on social services as local citizens. In general, labor force participation among migrants is higher than the native born.
21. While the overall national fiscal burden of migrants is marginal, the concentration of migrants in localities or regions can strain local government resources. While localities can expect to reap long-term wage benefits from immigration, in the short term, many will experience increased congestion and infrastructure overload. A study in the US found that while the fiscal impact of migration is "strongly positive at the national level", it can be "substantially negative at state and local levels." Managing the fiscal costs of migration may require redistributing tax benefits to address the excess burden placed on particular local and regional authorities.
22. The social impacts of migration reflect a similar pattern to that identified earlier: there are at times short-run and local costs, which are outweighed by the long-run and dispersed benefits promised by increasingly diverse societies. Diverse societies are more creative and dynamic, open, and cosmopolitan. Toronto is one of the most diverse cities in the world--47 percent of its residents are foreign born.
23. The economic competitiveness of the US in high technology fields is directly linked to its openness to outsiders, while the relative stagnation of Japan and Germany is tied to "closedness" and relative homogeneity. Openness to migrants pays dividends in the long run.
24. High-skilled emigration is depicted as the principal risk of mobility for developing countries. WHile Europe and East Asia actually send the highest number of educated migrants, Africa, the Caribbean and Central America send the largest proportions of their educated population overseas--around 20% from sub-Saharan Africa and more than 50% from most Caribbean and Central American countries. For sub-Saharan African countries, this loss is particularly significant because only 4% of the population possess university degrees. Caribbean and Central American countries have such small populations that the mass departure of graduates can hollow out the skill base of both the public and private sectors.
25. Examined on the surface, brain drain statistics paint a devastating picture of the impact of skilled emigration on some developing countries. More than 70 percent of university graduates from Guyana and Jamaica move to developed countries, and other countries have similarly high percentages of their graduates leaving: Morocco(65%), Tunisia (64%), Gambia (60percent), Ghana (25%), Sierra Leone (25%), Iran (25%), Korea(15%), Mexico (13%), and the Philippines (10%).
26. Most brain drain originates in developing countries with high rates of unemployment, and the evidence suggests that many graduates leave because they would otherwise be unproductive at home.
27. While the mass emigration of graduates may have short-term collective costs for some countries, research on the "new economics of brain drain" suggests that it may have medium- and long-term benefits. Migration is a harbinger of human capital gain and not the culprit of human capital drain.
28. Over the long run, the world is better off because of human migration. But the challenge is to manage the local and short-run economic and social strain that any concentrated and rapid influx of different people brings.
29. History teaches that rapid economic and political change- and increasingly, environmental change - dislodges people from their traditional routines, compelling them to seek opportunity and security in unfamiliar new homes. Against a backdrop of rapid globalization, the individual risks and costs of moving internationally will continue to fall with lower transport costs, better connectinvity, and growing transnational social and economic networks.
30. Migration policy should be reoriented away from an obsession with border control and toward a progressive embrace of international mobility as an integral and welcome feature of globalization. We see the ideal long-run outcome as one of freer cross-border movement, as we believe this is both ethically and economically desirable.
31. Advancing a global migration agenda requires a widespread acceptance—among stakeholders in government, business, and civil society—of the desirability of greater cross-border movement, and an understanding of its causes and consequences. Global coordination should be ideally be embodied in an international agreement and advanced and defended by an international organization.
32. The idea of freer movement and the need for a global institution to promote and protect it will end up like the other big ideas of history—democracy, free trade, global peace—that emerged from the margins of impossibility into the realm of the self-evident. As our distant ancestors would have told us, the earth is one country and all of humanity its citizens.