CityReads│Ten Rules of Factful Thinking to Learn about the World

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Ten Rules of Factful Thinking to Learn about the World 

Be factful.

Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund, and Ola Rosling, 2018. Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--andWhy Things Are Better Than You Think, Flatiron Books.

Source:https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/

You are more ignorant about the world than you think.

You don’t think so? Please do the ignorant test below to see how you are doing.

1. In all low-income countries across the world today, how many girls finish primary school?

A: 20 percent

B: 40 percent

C: 60 percent

2. Where does the majority of the world population live?

A: Low-income countries

B: Middle-income countries

C: High-income countries

3. In the last 20 years, the proportion of the world population living in extremepoverty has? 

A: almost doubled

B: remained more or less the same

C: almost halved

4.What is the life expectancy of the world today?

A: 50 years

B: 60 years

C: 70 years

5. There are 2 billion children in the world today, aged 0 to 15 years old. How many children will there be in the year 2100, according to the United Nations?

A: 4 billion

B: 3 billion

C: 2 billion

6. The UN predicts that by 2100 the world population will have increased by another 4 billion people. What is the main reason?

A: There will be more children (age below 15)

B: There will be more adults (age 15 to 74)

C: There will be more very old people (age 75 and older)

7. How did the number of deaths per year from natural disasters change over the last hundred years?

A: More than doubled

B: Remained about the same

C: Decreased to less than half

8. There are roughly 7 billion people in the world today. Which map shows best where they live? (Each figure represents 1 billion people.)

9. How many of the world’s 1-year-old children today have been vaccinated against some disease?

A: 20 percent

B: 50 percent

C: 80 percent

10. Worldwide, 30-year-old men have spent 10 years in school, on average. How many years have women of the same age spent in school?

A: 9 years

B: 6 years

C: 3 years

11. In 1996, tigers, giant pandas, and black rhinos were all listed as endangered. How many of these three species are more critically endangered today?

A: Two of them

B: One of them

C: None of them

12. How many people in the world have some access to electricity?

A: 20 percent

B: 50 percent

C: 80 percent

13. Global climate experts believe that, over the next 100 years, the average temperature will

A: get warmer

B: remain the same

C: get colder

These questions were among those thrown at 12,000 people worldwide by Hans Rosling, possiblythe world’s most famous statistical guru because of his mesmerizing TED talks, which he illustrated with memorable bubble charts tracking the global trends that were the focus of his academic life.

To learn more about Hans Rosling, his talks and works, please read CityReads│The Joy of Stats, CityReads|Remembering Edutainer Hans Rosling,Who Made Data Dance, CityReads│Dollar Street shows how people live by photos.

Though answers are available in frequently used public sources, and used commonly in discussions about global economic and social trends, not a single one of Rosling’s respondents got all the answers right. Fifteen per cent of respondents scored zero. The average score was two.

“This ignorance is not an accident,” Rosling concluded. “Only actively wrong knowledge can make us score so badly. Everyone seems to get the world devastatingly wrong. Not only devastatingly wrong, but systematically wrong.” He made it his life’s work, with his son and daughter, to attack the roots of this “factlessness”.

Factfulness has been published in 2018, a little more than a year after he died of pancreatic cancer in February 2017. In the book Factfulness the three founders of Gapminder describe in practice how to use these rules of thumb in all kinds of situations and illustrate it with vivid stories from real life situations.

Rosling wrote in the book:

“This book is my very last battle in my lifelong mission to fight devastating global ignorance. It is my last attempt to make an impact on the world: to change people’s ways of thinking, calm their irrational fears, and redirect their energies into constructive activities. In my previous battles I armed myself with huge data sets, eye-opening software, an energetic lecturing style, and a Swedish bayonet. It wasn’t enough. But I hope that this book will be.

This is data as you have never known it: it is data as therapy. It is understanding as a source of mental peace. Because the world is not as dramatic as it seems. Factfulness, like a healthy diet and regular exercise, can and should become part of your daily life. Start to practice it, and you will be able to replace your over dramatic worldview with a worldview based on facts. You will be able to get the world right without learning it by heart. You will make better decisions, stay alert to real dangers and possibilities, and avoid being constantly stressed about the wrong things.

I will teach you how to recognize over dramatic stories and give you some thinking tools to control your dramatic instincts. Then you will be able to shift your misconceptions, develop a fact-based worldview, and beat the chimps every time.

I want people, when they realize they have been wrong about the world, to feel not embarrassment, but that childlike sense of wonder, inspiration, and curiosity that I remember from the circus, and that I still get every time Idiscover I have been wrong: 'Wow, how is that even possible?”

First: Realize that we don't see the world as it is.

Part is to accept that humans don't see reality just as it is. There's too much information for us to process it all. That's why we all have an attention filter in our heads. But this attention filter is hard wired to make us care more about dramatic information, which easily leads to a stressful over-dramatic impression of the world.

Second: Recognize what types of stories trigger our dramatic instincts

Next, you need to learn to recognize the common types of stories that trigger your dramatic instincts. Factfulness is the skill to recognize the common types of stories that tend to get all the attention because they trigger our dramatic instincts. This will help you control your intake of drama. Most people need to think twice to control their intake of sugar and fat. And it seems to be the same with drama. Here is the list of dramatic instincts and below this list wehave listed the concrete rules of thumbs that help you avoid over dramatic interpretations.

1. Gap instinct. Whenever there is a gap between one thing and another, from a data perspective, it is easy to fall into the temptation to focus on the two separate things, and lose sight of the fact that there are often more data points right in the middle, between the two.

2. The negativity instinct. We are bombarded withso much negative information, that it is easy to slip into a negative frame of mind. There are always plenty of positive things happening, and we need to be sure not to lose sight of that.

3. The straight line instinct. Trends often do not proceed along a straight line trajectory. An example of flawed thinking in thisarea: when managers somehow expect “productivity” to continue to increase until the end of time.

4. The fear instinct. Things that appear frightening tend to get our attention; and often the reason something might seem frightening is we have little information about it.

5. The size instinct. Whenever a single number isused to try to make a point about how small or how big something is, there isreason for suspicion. Look for other data points so that valid comparisons canbe made.

6. The generalization instinct. Although arranging things into categories is a natural human tendency, along with making generalizations based on clustering things together, it is a slippery slope toward drawing conclusions based on things that are not warranted by the data.

7.  The destiny instinct. It is easy to draw a conclusion that things are not changing, just because the rate of change is slow. When slow changes happen over a long period of time, however, the improvement can still be dramatic.

8. The single perspective instinct. No matter howcertain drawing a particular conclusion might seem, looking at it from adifferent perspective often leads to a completely different answer.

9.  The blame instinct. A rush to judgement happens far too frequently. Not only is this unfortunate for the subject of blame, it also halts further learning and introspection into what really happened and why.

10. The urgency instinct. When it seems like a decision has to be made right away, take a step back and search for clues as towhy that seems to be the case. Few are the instances where action in fact hasto be taken immediately.

Third: Use simple rules of thumb to resist over-dramatic stories

As soon as you start recognizing the ten most common types of dramatic stories that trigger your dramatic instincts, it’s much easier to control your feelings of drama, and avoid having them triggered.

1.  To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.

Beware comparisons of averages. If you could check the spreads you would probably find they overlap. There is probably no gap at all.

Beware comparisons of extremes. In all groups, of countries or people, there are some at the top and some at the bottom. The difference is sometimes extremely unfair. But even then the majority is usually somewhere in between, right where the gap is supposed to be.

The view from up here. Remember, looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but it's not.

2.  To control the negativity instinct, expect bad news.

Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better). Convince yourself that things can be both better and bad.

Good news is not news. Good news is almost never reported. So news is almost always bad. When you see bad news, ask whether equally positive news would have reached you.

Gradual improvement is not news. When a trend is gradually improving, with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvement.

More news does not equal more suffering. More bad news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening world.

Beware of rosy pasts. People often glorify their early experiences, and nations of tenglorify their histories.

3. To control the straight line instinct, remember that curves come in different shapes. Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines.

4.  To control the fear instinct, calculate the risks.

The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected—by your own attention filter or by the media—precisely because it is scary.

Risk= danger × exposure. The risk something poses to you depends not on how scared it makes you feel, but on a combination of two things. How dangerous is it? And how much are you exposed to it?

Getcalm before you carry on. When you are afraid, you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.

5. To control the size instinct, get things in proportion.

Compare. Big numbers always look big. Single numbers on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious. Always look for comparisons. Ideally, divide by something.

80/20. Have you been given a long list? Look for the few largest items and deal with those first. They are quite likely more important than all the others put together.

Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different-sized groups. In particular, look for rates per person when comparing between countries or regions.

6. To control the generalization instinct, question your categories

Look for differences within groups. Especially when the groups are large, look forways to split them into smaller, more precise categories. And …

Look for similarities across groups. If you find striking similarities between different groups, consider whether your categories are relevant.

Look for differences across groups. Do not assume that what applies for one group applies for another.

Beware of “the majority.” The majority just means more than half. Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.

Beware of vivid examples. Vivid images are easier to recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule.

Assume people are not idiots. When something looks strange, be curious and humble, andthink, In what way is this a smart solution?

7.  To control the destiny instinct, remember slow change is still change.

Keep track of gradual improvements. A small change every year can translate to ahuge change over decades.

Update your knowledge. Some knowledge goes out of date quickly. Technology, countries, societies, cultures, and religions are constantly changing.

Talk to Grandpa. If you want to be reminded of how values have changed, think about your grandparents’values and how they differ from yours.

Collect examples of cultural change. Challenge the idea that today’s culture must also have been yesterday’s, and will also be tomorrow’s.

8. To control the single perspective instinct, geta toolbox, not a hammer.

Testyour ideas. Don’t only collect examples that show how excellent your favoriteideas are. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find theirweaknesses.

Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field: be humble about what youdon’t know. Be aware too of the limits of the expertise of others.

Hammers and nails. If you are good with a tool, you may want to use it too often. Remember that no one tool is good for everything. If your favorite idea is a hammer, look for colleagues with screwdrivers, wrenches, and tape measures. Be open to ideas from other fields.

Numbers, but not only numbers. The world cannot be understood without numbers, and it cannot be understood with numbers alone. Love numbers for what they tell you about real lives.

Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions. History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions. Welcome complexity. Combine ideas. Compromise. Solve problems on a case-by-case basis.

9. To control the blame instinct, resist finding a scapegoat.

Look for causes, not villains. When something goes wrong don’t look for an individual or a group to blame. Accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to. Instead spend your energy on understanding the multiple interacting causes, or system, that created the situation.

Look for systems, not heroes. When someone claims to have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway, even if that individual had done nothing.

10. To control the urgency instinct, take small steps.

Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is triggered, your other instincts kick in and your analysis shuts down. Ask for more time and more information. It’s rarely now or never and it’s rarely either/or.

Insiston the data. If something is urgent and important, it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but inaccurate, or accurate but irrelevant.Only relevant and accurate data is useful.

Beware of fortune-tellers. Any prediction about the future is uncertain. Be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge that. Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case. Ask how often such predictions have been right before.

Beware of drastic action. Ask what the side effects will be. Ask how the idea has been tested. Step-by-step practical improvements, and evaluation of their impact, are less dramatic but usually more effective.

Here are the correct answers of the ignorant test:

1: C, 2: B, 3: C, 4: C, 5: C, 6: B, 7: C, 8: A, 9: C, 10: A, 11: C, 12: C, 13: A

Related CityReads

35. CityReads│The Joy of Stats,117.CityReads|Remembering Edutainer Hans Rosling,Who Made Data Dance169.CityReads│Dollar Street shows how people live by photos.

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