加力降杠杆 国企改革再提速 债转股有望加快落地 SOEs push de-leveraging
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加力降杠杆 国企改革再提速 债转股有望加快落地
De-leveraging, SOEs reform and debt-for-equity swap to speed up'
此前召开的全国金融工作会议明确，把降低国企杠杆率作为重中之重。国资委相关负责人此前指出，支持在“僵尸企业”处置中直接融资和市场化、法治化债转股，降低企业融资成本和杠杆水平，目前正“一企一策”制定“僵尸企业”处置和特困子企业治理工作方案，并将抓紧出台央企降杠杆控负债防风险指导意见。
专家指出，在配套政策驱动下，下半年，债转股作为去杠杆的有效工具有望在微观面加快落地，国企资产证券化，混改、去僵尸企业等方面改革也将全力推进，这将有助于降低中国经济和金融的系统性风险。
已签约债转股应尽快落地
据财政部25日公布的数据，6月末，国有企业负债总额941293.4亿元，同比增长11.4%；其中，中央企业负债总额498305亿元，同比增长9.2%；地方国有企业负债总额442988.4亿元，同比增长14%。另据国资委数据，2016年底，中央企业负债率为66.6%。今年3月末，中央企业负债率为66.5%。
“国企降杠杆已迫在眉睫，是现实当中不得不啃的硬骨头。”中国政法大学教授李曙光指出，国企杠杆率目前很高，尤其是钢铁、煤炭等行业，一些企业杠杆率显示其已到了破产的境地，只能采取降杠杆的措施来解决。降低国企杠杆率涉及整个供给侧结构性改革能否成功，涉及是否会引发金融风险，涉及经济能否持续健康发展。降低国有企业杠杆率，最重要的方法就是让企业该破产就破产，实现市场出清。对于还有救的企业，最重要的方式就是实施债转股，应促使已签约的债转股尽快落地。
李曙光建议，国资委在债转股方面应有顶层设计，在债转股名单、具体标准、程序、分类、作价方法、资产评估、优先股等方面给予明确。同时，在实施过程中债权能不能作为出资，实施机构的法律定位及是否能够顺利退出等方面也应加以明确。
莫尼塔研究首席经济学家钟正生表示，国企杠杆率高的直接原因是，国企主要集中在重资产、高杠杆、产能过剩的行业。市场化、法治化“债转股”，可在短期内减少国企债务“借新还旧”的规模，降低金融体系的资金供求压力，从而减轻金融高利率与实体低回报的冲突，助力金融去杠杆。债转股的核心是“以时间换空间”，在杠杆率阶段性降下来之后，必当辅之以加快推进国企治理机制的改革，更加注重激发民间投资活力，打破国企预算软约束，方能防止去杠杆的过程出现反复。
国企改革下半年再提速
“除了债转股，国企资产证券化、重组、混改等都是国企降低杠杆率的重要手段，未来国企改革力度还将进一步加大。”李曙光表示。
国务院发展研究中心企业研究所副所长张文魁指出，按财政部的统计口径，到今年年底国企负债总额会接近100万亿元。国资委应果断控制国有企业快速加杠杆的趋势，更重要的是推进国有企业改革，通过股权重组来推动债务重组，不但可以消除来自国有企业带来的宏观经济脆弱性，中长期来说还可以提高我国宏观经济潜在增长水平。
北京大学经济研究所宏观经济研究课题组发布的最新报告指出，国企去杠杆除了收缩信贷和债转股外，在国企改革方面还需在以下几个方面着力：一是处理僵尸企业。不仅有助于国有企业去杠杆，预防潜在的债务危机，还有利于缓解中小企业融资难问题。为了减少处理僵尸企业的难度，应通过多种方式妥善安置职工，比如鼓励新企业吸纳原企业职工、提供职业技能培训、完善社会保障制度等。二是资产证券化，尤其是PPP项目的资产证券化。PPP模式存在着名股实债等问题，由于股权融资存在发行审核周期长等问题，债券融资又存在发行条件弱、偿还期限同项目回报周期不匹配等障碍，资产证券化是解决PPP融资问题的一个关键。资产证券化不仅有助于国有企业去杠杆，还可以一次性解决银行坏账问题。三是国企混改。国有企业杠杆率高的根源在于存在预算软约束，国企混改可以在一定程度上解决该问题。另外，国企混改有利于建立现代企业制度改革，提高企业绩效，进而降低企业杠杆率。民间资本可通过出资入股、收购股权、认购可转债、股权置换等多种方式，参与国有企业混改。国企混改不仅有助于国企去杠杆，还可以为民间资本扩展投资空间。
看好债转股+国改投资机会
广发证券分析师廖凌认为，政策驱动下，债转股作为去杠杆的有效工具有望在微观面加快落地。在供给侧改革与国企改革的双重政策共振逻辑下，看好后续配套政策加速、利益厘清后带来的投资机会。一是“债转股+供给侧改革”方面，煤炭、钢铁供给侧改革的重心正逐步由“去产能”向“去杠杆”转移，有望成为债转股重点落地领域；二是“债转股+国企混改”方面，员工持股尚处于试点阶段，引入战投、股权激励等其他传统混改方式推进较慢，而市场化债转股有望开辟混改提供新的加速通道。
廖凌指出，后续可从两条主线重点关注债转股主题的投资机会：一是在供给侧改革推进下，重点关注高杠杆率的周期性行业，如钢铁、煤炭等。年内煤炭、钢铁行业去产能指标压力已不大，后续资产负债率是其主要考核目标，重点关注已经或可能参与债转股的高负债标的。二是AMC（资产管理公司）主线。市场化债转股变革下，债转股政策驱动社会资本通过地方AMC承接国企债务并转换为股权实现混改，重点关注集团拥有优质AMC资产的国企。
The recently held National Financial Work Conference highlighted that China will focus on reduce the leverage of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Relevant officials from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) pointed out that it support zombie enterprises to conduct direct financing and market-based and legal debt-for-equity swap to reduce the financing cost and leverage of enterprises. It is preparing individual plans on the disposal of zombie enterprises will speed up in introducing guidelines on reducing the leverage and debts of central enterprises and preventing risks.
Experts pointed out that driven by supporting policies, the debt-for-equity swap as an effective instrument in de-leveraging will speed up in implementation. The securitization of assets of SOEs, the mixed ownership reform as well as other reforms will advance. It will reduce systematic risks in China’s economy and finance.
Contracted debt-for-equity swap to speed up in implementation
Based on the statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on July 25, the total liabilities of SOEs reached 94,129.34 billion yuan as at the end of June, increasing 11.4 percent year on year. The total liabilities of central enterprises were 49,830.5 billion yuan, increasing 9.2 percent year on year. The total liabilities of local SOEs reached 44,298.84 billion yuan, increasing 14 percent year on year. Based on the statistics of the SASAC, the debt ratio of central enterprises was 66.6 percent as at the end of 2016. As at the end of March, the debt ratio of central enterprises was 66.5 percent.
“It is urgent for SOEs to cut the leverage and it is a difficulty to be solved in reality.” The leverage rate of SOEs, the iron & steel and coal industries in particular, is still high and some enterprises are on the verge of bankruptcy, said Li Shuguang, a professor from China University of Political Science and Law. It can only be solved through de-leveraging. The de-leveraging in SOEs determines the success of the whole supply-side structural reform and it concerns financial risks and the sustainable and healthy development of the economy. It is important to let enterprises on the verge of bankruptcy go bankruptcy in cutting the leverage of SOEs. For those with hopes, it should conduct debt-for-equity swap and promote the implementation of contracted debt-for-equity swap.
Li advised that the SASAC should have top designs on debt-for-equity swap and establish specific requirements on the list of debt-for-equity swap, specific standards, procedures, classification, pricing, assets appraisal and preferred shares. Meanwhile, it should also specify whether the creditor’s rights can make contributions, the legal positions of institutes and whether they can exit smoothly in the implementation.
The high leverage rate of SOEs is a result of the industries with huge assets, high leverage and excessive capacities, indicated Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist with Caixin Insight Group. The market-based and legal debt-for-equity swap can reduce the size of the liabilities of SOEs and reduce the pressure on capitals supply in the financial system to reduce the conflict between the high interest rate and low returns of entities. It will boost financial de-leveraging. The core of the debt-for-equity swap is to sacrifice time for space. After the leverage rate is cut, it should advance the reform of the governance mechanism of SOEs and vitalize social capitals to break the restrictions on the budget of SOEs and prevent repeated de-leveraging.
SOEs reform to speed up in H2
“Besides debt-for-equity swap, asset securitization, restructuring and mixed ownership of SOEs are key means in reducing the leverage rate of SOEs. The SOEs reform will expand in the future,” indicated Li.
Based on the statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the total liabilities of SOEs will reach nearly 100 trillion yuan by the end of 2017, indicated Zhang Wenkui, Deputy Director of the Enterprise Research Institute under the Development Research Center of the State Council. The SASAC should control SOEs in adding leverage and promote the SOEs reform. It should promote debt restructuring through equity restructuring to eliminate the macro-economic vulnerability and improve the potential economic growth in the medium to long term.
Besides shrinking credit and debt-for-equity swap, the SOEs reform should also focus on the following aspects, according to the latest report released by the Institute of Economy of Peking University. Firstly, it should deal with zombie enterprises. It will facilitate de-leveraging in SOEs and prevent potential debt crisis as well as solve the difficulties of small and medium enterprises in financing. It should make proper arrangements for employees, such as encouraging new enterprise to employ former staff, providing trainings and improving the social guarantee system, to facilitate the disposal of zombie enterprises. Secondly, it should promote asset securitization, the asset securitization for PPP programs in particular. The PPP model has such problems as debts in the name of equities. As it takes long time in approval for equity financing and the bond financing faces mismatching repayment periods and return periods, the asset securitization is a key to solve the problems in financing through PPPs. The asset securitization can help SOEs cut the leverage and solve the bad debts of banks. Thirdly, it should facilitate the mixed ownership reform in SOEs. The high leverage of SOEs is a result of the weak restrictions on the budget and the mixed ownership reform can solve the problem to certain extent. In addition, the mixed ownership reform will facilitate the establishment of the modern enterprise system and improve the performance to reduce the leverage of enterprises. Social capitals can participate in the mixed ownership reform of SOEs through the acquisition of equities, the subscription of convertible bonds and equity swap. It will facilitate de-leveraging in SOEs and bring investment opportunities to social capitals.
Bullish about investment opportunities in debt-for-equity swap and SOEs reform
Driven by policies, debt-for-equity swap as an effective instrument in de-leveraging will speed up in implementation, indicated Liao Ling, an analyst from GF Securities. Boosted by policies on supply-side reform and SOEs reform, it is bullish about investment opportunities brought by subsequent supporting policies. Firstly, for the “debt-for-equity swap plus supply-side reform”, the supply-side reform on the coal and iron & steel industries will shift from “de-capacities” to “de-leveraging”. They are likely to see the implementation of debt-for-equity swap. Secondly, for the “debt-for-equity swap plus mixed ownership reform in SOEs”, the employee stock ownership is under pilot and the introduction of strategic investors and equity stimulus and other traditional mixed ownership reforms are slow in advancing. The market-based debt-for-equity swap may provide new channels for the mixed ownership reform.
Liao pointed out that investors can focus on the debt-for-equity swap in the following two aspects. Firstly, cyclical industries with high leverage rate with the advancing of the supply-side reform, such as iron & steel and coal industries. Such industries face less pressure on de-capacity and the asset-liability ratio will be the key appraisal indicator. They are advised to pay more attention to subjects with high liabilities have or may participate(d) in debt-for-equity swap. Secondly, asset management companies (AMC). Driven by the market-based debt-for-equity swap, policies will drive more social capitals to undertake the debts of SOEs through AMCs and swap them into equities to achieve mixed ownership reform. Investors are advised to pay more attention to SOEs with quality AMC assets.
Source: Xinhua Finance Agency 丨Shanghai Securities News
Translated by Star Zhang