25省份公布上半年经济“成绩单” 高速增长地区民间投资大幅回暖 Regional economy growth in H1
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25省份公布上半年经济“成绩单” 高速增长地区民间投资大幅回暖
Private investment recovers greatly in regions with rapid growth in H1
截至26日，全国已有25个省份公布了2017年上半年的经济运行情况。数据显示，重庆市、贵州省、云南省分别以10.5%、10.4%、9.5%的GDP增速领跑全国，北京和天津两地的经济增速比一季度有所回落，但结构升级态势明显。在经济高速增长的地区，投资尤其是民间投资活力明显增强，成为拉动这些地区上半年经济增长的主要抓手。
在已发布数据的地区中，共有19个省、自治区、直辖市上半年经济增速跑赢了6.9%的全国GDP增速，上海市、天津市、山西省的增速与全国持平，北京市、甘肃省、辽宁省低于全国增速。和一季度相比，北京市和天津市上半年的经济增速略有回落，但经济结构升级态势明显。以北京市为例，虽然该市上半年第二产业增加值增速回落3个百分点，但第三产业增加值增速提高了0.6个百分点。
北京市统计局有关负责人介绍，自2006年消费率首次超过投资率以来，目前北京市经济结构中消费的主导地位更加突出。今年上半年，市场总消费额增速高于全社会固定资产投资增速3.1个百分点。其中，服务性消费增长12.7%，增速超过商品性消费7.1个百分点，占市场总消费额的比重达到53%，对总消费增长的贡献率为70.5%，医疗保健、教育、文化娱乐、交通通信等升级类消费均实现两位数增长。
值得一提的是，在经济高速增长的地区，投资的拉动作用明显。以重庆市、贵州省、云南省为例，三地上半年固定资产投资增速分别为12.3%、21.0%、16.0%。其中，贵州省上半年全省固定资产投资增速高于全国水平12.4个百分点。其中，基础设施投资2422.32亿元，比上年同期增长28.3%，增速高于上年同期7.2个百分点，其中水利、环境和公共设施管理业投资1311.96亿元，增长51.7%。云南省上半年固定资产投资虽然增速比一季度回落1个百分点，但仍居全国第四位。
从经济增长良好的地区来看，上半年民间投资的活力大幅回暖。江西省上半年民间投资增长13.3%，比上年同期提高4.0个百分点，占全部投资的71.8%，对投资增长的贡献率达75.0%。
广东省上半年GDP增速为7.8%。据广东省统计局有关负责人介绍，从支撑因素来说，广东投资上半年的持续增长首先得益于民间投资。数据显示，上半年，广东实现民间投资9664.04亿元，增长13.4%。增速比2016年的19.6%虽有下降，但比2017年一季度的11.1%有所回升。
此外，山东省上半年民间投资增长8.5%，是去年以来的最高增速。最新数据显示，该省民间投资对固定资产投资增长的贡献率达到67.3%，比去年同期提高59.6个百分点。
对于未来投资走势，中国银行国际金融研究所研究员高玉伟告诉《经济参考报》记者，下半年投资增速有望保持在较高水平。从资金和项目看，制约投资增长的约束条件进一步放松。上半年，投资资金来源同比增长1.4%，累计增速年内首次转正，表明资金条件逐步改善，特别是财政、贷款及自筹资金增长持续加快。在施工项目计划投资额高速增长的同时，新开工项目计划投资额增长显著加快，五六月分别增长10.6%和20.5%。
高玉伟表示，从三大类投资走势看，一是企业效益改善增强了企业家投资信心，同时国内外需求总体上比较旺盛，供求两旺制造业投资内生动力增强；二是房地产投资增速连续两个月回落，但回落幅度收窄，鉴于部分中小城市房地产市场行情较好，未来投资大幅放缓的可能性不大；三是随着新开工项目增多和资金到位情况改善，基建投资仍将保持高速增长。
As of July 26, 25 provinces across China have unveiled economic data in the first half of 2017. Statistics showed that Chongqing municipality, Guizhou province and Yunnan province ranked ahead others with 10.5 percent, 10.4 percent and 9.5 percent GDP growth respectively, and economic growth of Beijing and Tianjin cities fell from the first quarter. Investment, particularly private investment, in regions with fast growing economy is greatly enhanced, becoming an important driver boosting economic growth in these regions in the first six months of this year.
Economic growth of 19 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government outpaced the 6.9 percent national GDP growth in the first half of this year, that of Shanghai, Tianjin and Shanxi kept flat with 6.9 percent, and that of Beijing, Gansu and Liaoning was lower than 6.9 percent. Economic growth of Beijing and Tianjin in the first half of this year fell from the first quarter, but showed obvious trend in economic structural upgrading. For instance, increase in added value of the second industry of Beijing dropped by 3 percentage points, but that of the third industry rose by 0.6 percentage points in the first half of the year.
An official from Beijing municipal bureau of statistics introduced that consumption rate exceeded investment rate for the first time since 2006 and consumption plays a more prominent role in the economic structure of Beijing at present. In the first half of this year, growth of total spending of the city was 3.1 percentage points faster than that of social fixed-asset investment. Specifically, service consumption gained by 12.7 percent, 7.1 percentage points higher than the growth of commodity consumption. It accounted for as high as 53 percent of total consumption of the city and its contribution to the growth of total consumption registered 70.5 percent. Consumption in healthcare, education, entertainment and transportation communication achieved double-digit growth.
It is worth noting that investment made great contribution to the regions with high-speed development. For example, fixed-asset investment in Chongqing, Guizhou and Yunnan rose by 12.3 percent, 21.0 percent and 16.0 percent respectively during January and June of this year. Growth rate of fixed-asset investment in Guizhou was 12.4 percentage points higher than the average growth of the whole country. Investment in infrastructure reached 242.232 billion yuan, an increase of 28.3 percent from a year earlier, which was 7.2 percentage points faster than that in the same period of last year. Investment in water conservancy, environment and public facility management amounted to 131.196 billion yuan, up by 51.7 percent. Growth rate of fixed-asset investment in Yunnan fell by 1 percentage point when compared with that in the first quarter, but it still ranked the fourth among other regions.
Private investment in regions with better economic growth recovered a lot in the first half of this year. Private investment in Jiangxi province surged by 13.3 percent in the period, 4.0 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year. It accounted for 71.8 percent of total investment of the province and its contribution to the investment growth came at 75.0 percent.
GDP of Guangdong province grew by 7.8 percent in the first six months of this year. According to Guangdong bureau of statistics, it was contributed by private investment. Statistics showed that during January-June period, private investment in Guangdong picked up by 13.4 percent to 966.404 billion. The growth rate was slower than 19.6 percent in 2016 but higher than 11.1 percent in the first quarter of this year.
In addition, private investment in Shandong province saw a growth of 8.5 percent, the highest growth since 2016. The latest data showed that contribution of private investment to the growth rate of fixed-asset investment posted 67.3 percent, 59.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year.
Gao Yuwei, a research fellow with the international financial institute of the Bank of China, told the reporter of Economic Information Daily that investment growth is expected to stay high in the next half of this year. In terms of capital and projects, restrictions over investment growth will be further relaxed. Investment capital source went up by 1.4 percent in the first half of this year. It is the first time that its growth rate turned positive in 2017, indicating that conditions about capital are being improved gradually and especially financial fund, loans and self-raised funds grew faster. When planned investment in projects under construction saw rapid development, planned investment in newly started projects hiked by 10.6 percent and 20.5 percent in May and June respectively.
Gao indicated that in terms of trend of three kinds of investment, firstly, improvement in corporate profitability strengthened entrepreneur’s confidence in investment. In addition, domestic and overseas demand was quite strong, boosting investment in manufacturing industry. Secondly, growth rate in real estate investment dropped for two consecutive months, but the decline narrowed. Therefore, investment is unlikely to slow down significantly in the future in view of good situation in real estate market in some small and medium-sized cities. Thirdly, as there will be more newly started projects and capitals will be put in place, infrastructure investment will keep rapid growth.
Source: Xinhua Finance Agency 丨Shanghai Securities News
Translated by Vanessa Chen