Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

ChengduExpat

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The Coronavirus that originated in Wuhan has led a lots of people to seak advise in WeChat groups, to appease their anxieties - however this causes a lots of unverified and contradictary infomation to arise; making it extra hard to decide...

Should You Stay or Should You Go?

In total, there are now 9811 confirmed cases, including 9619 in China, representing almost 99% of all cases worldwide. 213 people have lost their lives to this outbreak, all of them in China; our thoughts are with their families.

The continued increase in cases, and the evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China, are both deeply concerning. Although the numbers outside China are still relatively small, they hold the potential for a much larger outbreak.

So, what’s the deal, and should we be worried or even planning our evacuation until this blows over? Well, let’s have a look at some facts.

Facts and Perspective

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As of 31st January, we have had 7753 confirmed cases and 170 fatalities. SARS, which was a similar outbreak back in 2002/03, infected around 8000 people globally and killed just under 800, so approximately, this equates to a 10% fatality rate compared with around 2% for the current virus that has been dubbed 2019-nCov.

What this means is that the current virus has infected more people than SARS, but the mortality rate is significantly lower. In other words, you are more likely to get infected, but the effect will most likely be less serious, especially if you are young and in good health.

The overwhelming majority of fatalities has occurred among the elderly, many of whom have underlying health issues which undermines their immunity systems. Most of those who died would probably have died of regular influenza as well, if they had been infected. In fact, influenza affects millions of people every year – in the US for example, there have been well over 3000 influenza-related deaths this season (from 1st October till now) and in a bad year (2 years ago), as many as 61,000 people died from influenza in the United States, with over 90% of deaths coming from people aged 50 and over and 75% aged over 65 (source: Center for disease control). The fatalities for 2019-nCoV follow a similar pattern in terms of demographics.

Meanwhile the WHO Has Declared China Coronavirus a Global Health Emergency

The World Health Organization has finally declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) after an emergency committee reconvened Thursday in Geneva. They did stress they do not agree with travel or airline bans from countries outside of China.

"The main reason for this declaration is not because of what is happening in China, but because of what is happening in other countries," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Thursday. "Our greatest concern is the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems, and which are ill-prepared to deal with it."

Ghebreyesus commended China for its actions to limit the spread of the virus, saying that "we would have seen many more cases outside China by now -- and probably deaths -- if it were not for the government's efforts.

To read the recommendations laid out by the Emergency Committee, scan the QR code below:

Global Airliners Suspend Flights to China

Countries such as the US and UK have issued advisories to avoid all unessential travel to China as the outbreak persists. Airlines in three separate continents have suspended some flights to and from the PRC, with British Airways, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and American Airlines reducing their number of China flights, while Lufthansa Group and Austrian Airlines have canceled their flights to Shanghai and Beijing until February 9.

In addition to suspended flights, Russia declared the country will close its 4,000-kilometer border with China to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

List of Airlines that announced to cut China flights

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Viral Outbreak Reach Peak in 7-10 Days

The novel coronavirus outbreak may reach its peak in one week or around 10 days, said renowned Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan.

"It is very hard to say for sure when the outbreak will reach its peak, yet I think it can reach its climax in one week or about 10 days and then there will not be large-scale increases," Zhong said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency on Tuesday.

Vaccine may be available in '8 to 12 months'

One of the avenues of urgent investigation is the search for a vaccine. Among researchers across the world in a race against time to create a vaccine is Dr Paul Stoffels, the vice-chairman and chief scientific officer at Johnson & Johnson.

"We know that (the coronavirus) is spreading very far… that it is new to humanity," said Stoffels, who works at Johnson & Johnson's vaccine facility in the south Netherlands city of Leiden.

"That's why (the coronavirus) is a high risk," he added. "We know that it kills. It is very deadly for the elderly, weak people. And that is why we need to make sure that we contain it as quickly as possible."

But even with the hardest work, it may not be quick enough for some. Stoffels estimates that it may take eight months to a year before a vaccine completes the rigorous testing needed before public usage.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

So, should we head for the airports and get out of Dodge until this all dies down? There’s no straight-forward answer and it depends a lot on your specific situation. For example, do you have young children who are vulnerable, can you work remotely or take an extended holiday, do you have pets you are reluctant to abandon? If you are of a nervous disposition and worry about what MIGHT happen, perhaps for peace of mind, you should consider leaving until this blows over. It should be noted though that the mere act of being on an airplane with a few hundred others for a sustained period of time poses its own risks. On the other hand, the government is taking sensible steps to minimize the spread of the virus, learning from the SARS experience. Additionally, the risks are still relatively low and can be reduced further by taking sensible precautions like washing hands thoroughly and often, avoiding crowded, enclosed spaces (to be honest there aren’t many of these places at the moment), cook food thoroughly to kill of any germs.

When making what is obviously a very important decision, what’s important is to deal with facts and ignore the plethora of misinformation, rumours and fake news that’s floating around on social media as well as in some of the less responsible media outlets. These include scary tales of how the “real” infection rate is in the hundreds of thousands (if that were true, isn’t it odd that most people do not know anyone who has been infected), or that the airports are soon to shut down and everyone will be stuck. There are also rumours of food shortages and empty supermarket shelves, causing some people to stockpile food and water, but these are largely unsubstantiated or real situations taken out of context (lunar new year is always affected by some inventory issues due to fewer staff on duty and company shutdowns, but these quickly resolve themselves as we move away from the festive period).

Sources: WHO, CGNT, ThatsShenzhen, FamilyFunShanghai.