ICC重磅：权威解读咖啡与制成品价格关系及国际贸易条件【咖啡专题】
大宗产业及金融知识库，有温度、有态度
点击上方蓝字扑克投资家关注！我们把微信做成了“搜索引擎”，形成这一垂直领域庞大的『知识库』，回复相应关键词提取各种干货资料集锦。负责人微信号：voyage620.商务合作：18616335129
专题导语：这是扑克投资家的第104期专题，我们的微信后台和群每天都会收到很多热心朋友的反馈，近期咖啡是一个热门关键词。作为世界三大饮料作物之一，每次厄尔尼诺的炒作都少不了咖啡的疯狂表演。在本期专题里，你可以看到周期内巨幅波动的咖啡价格、及其背后的产业链价值体系【后台回复关键词“咖啡”查看本期专题所有内容】
来自International Coffee Council 由扑克投资家编译，转载请注明
世界咖啡价格和制成品对比分析
本篇研究的方法论是建立在1965年至2013年期间，世界咖啡价格的月平均值，包括ICO综合指标，在期货市场（纽约和伦敦）的价格指数之上。我们将把这些价格的变化与咖啡出口国进口的价格变动进行比较。从此出发，我们还将观察到咖啡出口国和进口国之间的贸易条件的博弈。
INTRODUCTION
1. The methodology of this study is based on monthly averages of world coffee prices, including the ICO composite indicator, group indicator, and prices on the futures markets (New York and London), for the period 1965 to 2013. The evolution of these prices will then be compared with the behaviour of prices of manufactured goods imported by coffee exporting countries. This will allow us to observe the evolution of the terms of trade between coffee exporting countries and importing countries.
1，历史与世界咖啡价格近期发展
a.咖啡收购价变动的历史数据
2，图1显示了咖啡种植国家成本的公开市场价格变化。出口国包括巴西，哥伦比亚，厄瓜多尔，萨尔瓦多，埃塞俄比亚，危地马拉，洪都拉斯和印度。在过去的五年里，大多数出口国数据的峰值出现在年度2010-2011之间。剔除20世纪60年代的低价格水平，在几乎所有出口国，有记录的咖啡价格在2000-2001学年及2003-2004之间的处于较低水平。虽然种植者通常以当地货币结算，但这些都是以美分/磅报价，所以一些价格差异可以通过汇率波动来解释。
I. HISTORICAL AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OF WORLD COFFEE PRICES
a. Evolution of coffee prices paid to producers
2. Graph 1 shows the evolution of the price paid to coffee growers for selected countries where such data is available. The exporting countries selected include Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras and India. For most exporting countries, the highest observations were recorded in the last five years, peaking in crop year 2010/11. Excluding the low price levels of the 1960s, coffee growers in almost all exporting countries recorded their lowest prices between crop year 2000/01 and 2003/04. Although growers are generally paid in local currency, these prices are given in US cents/lb, so some of the variance could be explained by fluctuating exchange rates.
B.咖啡价格变化传导到最终消费
3.在进口国消费者支付的零售价格一般都较高，特别是在意大利和英国（见图表2）。在英国，这可以由消费者能接受的速溶咖啡的最高零售价来说明。零售价格也普遍自2008年达到峰值之后再次达到峰值，这里以美分/磅计价，不排除汇率波动带来的差异。
b. Evolution of coffee prices to final consumers
3. Final retail prices paid by consumers in importing countries have generally been much higher, particularly in Italy and the United Kingdom (see Graph 2). In the UK, this can be explained by the consumer preference for soluble coffee which retails at a higher unit price. Retail prices have also generally peaked since 2008. Again, prices are generally recorded in local currency, but are shown here in US cents/lb, so changes in the exchange rates could potentially have an effect.
C。在伦敦和纽约期货市场价格
4.期货价格是标准化合约的交易价格，与期货息息相关，即根据合约内容在特定日期的把特定数量和品位的咖啡在一个特定的交易场所进行交割。该份合同在期货市场每天连续竞价交易。纽约和伦敦期货市场是国际咖啡贸易的主要交易所，分别以阿拉比卡和罗布斯塔咖啡为合约标的。表3显示了纽约和伦敦期货市场上活跃咖啡合约的月平均价格变动。
c. Prices on the London and New York futures markets
4. The futures price relates to a fully coded and standardized paper contract for a particular quantity and grade of coffee deliverable at a specific place on a specific date. The contract is negotiated daily in the futures market. The New York and London futures markets are the main exchanges for the international coffee trade, dealing with Arabica and Robusta coffee respectively. Graph 3 shows the average monthly prices for the 2nd and 3rd positions on the New York and London futures markets.
D。ICO综合指数
5.图4显示了1965年至2013年ICO综合指数的演进轨迹，这一历史数据展示了咖啡市场的周期性和不稳定性。周期内的价格波幅巨大。可以看出，价格拐点的四个主要时间阶段。价格上涨的第一个周期是在1971年至1977年，并且在1975-1977年间达到高位，这一轮价格高涨的主要原因由巴西霜冻引起的供需不平衡导致。1972年，出口配额在国际咖啡组织协定的约束下被迫中止，紧跟着就是咖啡价格修复性下降周期(1978-1980)。这一下跌导致1980年配额价格的重新引入。咖啡价格在1981年回升，开启了价格上升的第二周期，并一直持续到1986年，这一时期的价格主要被巴西和其他生产国的气候问题所塑造。价格下跌的一个漫长的时期始于1986年下半年，尽管配额在1987年10月再次被引入依然无补。
d. ICO composite indicator and group indicator prices
5. Graph 4 shows the behaviour of the ICO composite indicator price from 1965 to 2013. The historical record of the composite price reveals the cyclical phenomena and instability that characterize the coffee market. The alternation between upward and downward price movements is evident. It can be seen that there were four major periods of rising prices alternating with periods of falling prices. The first and longest period of rising prices extends from 1971 to 1977, with very high levels from 1975 to 1977. This first period of rising prices is attributable to the imbalance between supply and demand, aggravated by frosts in Brazil. Export quotas under the International Coffee Agreement were suspended in 1972. This was followed by a brief period of slightly falling prices between 1978 and 1980 leading to the reintroduction of quotas in 1980. Prices began to recover in 1981 and there was a second period of rising prices lasting until 1986. This period was also characterized by climatic problems in Brazil and other producing countries. A lengthy period of falling prices began in late 1986 despite the reintroduction of quotas in October 1987 and a brief recovery in 1988.
6.自1989年7月开始，出口配额被完全禁止，而咖啡价格持续走低直到1993年，自1994年4月起，咖啡由于在巴西的恶劣霜冻天气而逐渐恢复并趋于稳定，分别在1994年和1997年的上半年到达峰值，此后持续下降。
在第三个时期1998年至2004年，在短暂的上升之后咖啡价格面临长期而持续的下跌。这一时期被称为咖啡危机，这是咖啡市场有记录以来的最糟糕的时期。在第四个时期，价格上涨开始于2004年年底，直到2011年依然保持坚挺，并在2012年开始下降。四个时期的咖啡价格都显示出了相似的变动轨迹（图5）。
6. The quota system was suspended in July 1989 and prices remained low until 1993. The recovery in prices that began in April 1994, due to another frost in Brazil, was subsequently consolidated, with prices reaching peaks during 1994 and the first half of 1997 before falling steadily. This third period of rising prices was followed by the longest period of falling prices lasting from 1998 to 2004, known as the coffee crisis, representing the worst period of low prices ever recorded. The fourth period of rising prices started towards the end of 2004 and remained firm until 2011 before a downturn in prices since 2012. Prices of the four groups of coffee showed similar movements (Graph 5).
II。制成品和ICO综合指数价格
7.一些被咖啡生产国所进口的工业制成品价格会影响他们的咖啡出口所产生的价值。在所有咖啡制成品的出口利润的影响因素之中最常被提到的是在咖啡种植中的成本投入，如拖拉机和化肥价格。但是，农业投入价格的可靠的数据并不容易得到，本篇研究采用发达国家的工业制成品出口的联合国指数作为代理变量。这是因为许多农业出口国，咖啡是外汇的重要来源，而机械化或工业生产要素一般都是进口的。因此，咖啡生产国的工业产品进口的外贸价值将对咖啡出口的相对价值产生重要影响。
II. PRICES OF MANUFACTURED GOODS AND ICO COMPOSITE INDICATOR PRICE
7. The prices of certain manufactured goods imported by coffee producing countries can affect the value generated by their coffee exports. Among the imported manufactured goods that can affect coffee export earnings, the most commonly mentioned are prices of the inputs used in coffee farming, particularly agricultural machinery, such as tractors, and fertilizers. While reliable data on agricultural inputs are not easily available, this study uses the United Nations index of manufactured goods exports in developed countries as a proxy. This is because for many exporting countries, coffee is an important source of foreign exchange, while mechanized or industrial inputs are generally imported. Therefore, the value of manufactures imported by coffee producing countries will have important consequences for the relative value of coffee.
A.农业机械和ICO综合指标价格的价格
8.在没有对拖拉机，机车，飞机价格的可靠数据的情况下，我们决定改用制成品联合国指数。（图6）
a. Prices of agricultural machinery and ICO composite indicator price
8. In the absence of reliable data on the prices of tractors, locomotives or aircraft, we have decided to use instead the UN index of manufactured goods (Graph 6).
0100200300400US cents/lbColombian MildsOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsRobustas
9.图7显示了ICO综合指标价格在名义和实际经联合国工业品指数的变化和演进。可以看出，从实际角度，国际咖啡价格在过去50年中表现远远逊色于其名义上的数据。尤其是，2011年的价格上涨行情并不如同先前预料到的一样引人注目，在2013年12月末，在被称为“咖啡危机”的时机前夕，真正的咖啡价格已经下降到与2000年中期相同水平。
9. Graph 7 shows the evolution of the ICO composite indicator price in nominal terms and real terms deflated by the UN manufactured goods index. It can be seen that, in real terms, coffee prices over the last 50 years have performed worse than in nominal terms. In particular, the price spike of 2011 was less dramatic than previously considered, and at the end of December 2013, real coffee prices had fallen to the same level as mid-2000, directly preceding the period known as the coffee crisis.
10.与生产商品指数相比，咖啡种植者的购买力在所有样本出口国都出现了侵蚀效应。(见图表8)
10. With regard to the price paid to growers compared to the index of manufatured goods, the purchasing power of coffee growers has been eroded in all selected exporting countries (see Graph 8).
11.从广义上讲，农业中使用的主要是有机肥料和无机肥料。矿质肥料是提高咖啡农业生产效率的最广泛使用的土壤养分，主要是氮、磷、钾肥。图9显示了自1965以来部分肥料价格的变化。
11. Broadly speaking two main types of fertilizer are used in agriculture: organic fertilizers and mineral fertilizers. Mineral fertilizers are the most widely used soil nutrients for improving productivity in coffee farming – these are mainly nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizers. Graph 9 shows the evolution of selected fertilizer prices since 1965.
12.自从2008年以来，进口化肥的价格暴涨之后，生产咖啡的成本提高，咖啡种植农购买进口化肥的动力下降。
12. It can be seen that the purchasing power of coffee farmers who make intensive use of imported fertilizers has fallen in recent years, as the price of fertilizers spiked since 2008, significantly increasing the costs of production for coffee producers.
13.一般说来，农业部门与制造业和服务业相比一般被认为是低生产率的部分。因此农产品出口型国家在与发达国家进行贸易的时候贸易条件往往趋于恶化。根据经济学家Raúl Prebisch和Hans Singer的观点，相比于工业制成品来说，矿产品和农产品的价格成下跌趋势，因为原材料的需求变动和全球的收入变动并不呈同比例。换句话说，收入每增长1%将会给初级产品的需求带来不到1%的提高。这一假说源自于经济上的恩格尔法则，即认为消费者的收入提高会导致食物消费占总消费的比重下降。然而，这对于农产品出口国尤其是咖啡出口国的影响强度将取决于初级农产品在总出口中的比重。
13. Generally, the commodity sector is considered a low-productivity sector compared to manufactured products or the services sector. As a result, commodity export-dependent countries are subject to the deterioration of their terms of trade with developed countries. According to this concept that was developed by the economists Rau?l Prebisch and Hans Singer, the prices of mineral and agricultural products compared to the prices of manufactured goods follow a downward trend as world demand for primary products does not change proportionally to a change in world incomes. In other words, an increase of 1% in income would lead to a less than 1% increase in the demand of primary products. This hypothesis is derived from Engel’s Law in economics which stipulates that consumers spend a smaller fraction of their income on food and other basic necessities as they get richer. However, the impact on the terms of trade of commodity exporting countries such as coffee producers will depend on the share of primary commodities in their total exports.
III.价值链分析
14.咖啡的价值链涵盖了咖啡产品从生产端到最终消费的一系列活动所产生的利润。然而，供应链中的所有参与者的经济数据，尤其是中介机构和交易者的确切股份数目，都是不容易获得的。因此人们根据最终节点上的消费价格来估计出全球咖啡产业的总市值。根据这一算法，我们可以得出2012年全球咖啡产业的总消费值高达1734亿元美元。（然而，必须记住的是，这一估计是建立在几个假设和估计的参数之上的。因此，对这个估计的结果必须保留一定程度的谨慎）
14. The coffee value chain covers the revenue generated by activities across the entire supply chain of the product, from production to final consumption. However, data on the exact economic shares of all actors in the supply chain, particularly that of intermediaries and traders, is not readily available. Nevertheless, an effort has been made to analyse the aggregate worth of the global coffee industry, based on the final consumer price paid at point of consumption. The result of this evaluation is that the total consumption value of the coffee industry came to US$173.4 billion in 2012 (see Annex I for full details). However, it must be kept in mind that this estimate is based on several assumptions and estimated parameters (such as the average retail price of coffee, the cost per cup of coffee, and the number of cups per kilogramme of roasted coffee) where precise data is frequently incomplete. Therefore, the results of this estimate must be approached with a degree of caution. Further information on the coffee value chain can be found in document ICC-106-1 (Coffee value chain in selected importing countries).
IV.结论
15. 最后值得指出的是，大量的发展中国家继续依靠农产品出口，尽管这一出口性质相比于制成品出口会给他们的贸易条件带来不利影响。但是，发展中国家的出口结构随着时间的推移而变化，初级商品在出口中的的重要性降低。此外，在过去的五十年中，在这些抽样的国家中咖啡的生产力已经显著上升，这将会给主要咖啡出口国的产量以及产出效率带来显著的提高，同时部分抵消掉这些国家在于发达国家贸易时的先天不利条件，也将使得我们的比较分析复杂化。现在，一些咖啡出口国也已成为发达国家的制成品提供者，这将进一步降低贸易条件恶化的影响。
15. In conclusion, it should be noted that a large number of developing countries continue to depend on exports of agricultural products with a negative impact on their terms of trade compared to manufactured goods. However, the structure of their exports has changed over time leading to a reduction in the importance of these primary commodities. Furthermore, significant increases in coffee productivity have been observed in many producing countries over the last 50 years. This has allowed coffee exporting countries to produce more coffee with greater efficiency, which will partially offset any losses in the terms of trade with developed countries, thus complicating the comparative analysis. Moreover, some coffee exporting countries have also become suppliers of manufactured goods to industrialized countries, which will further reduce the impact of declining terms of trade.
版权声明：部分文章推送时未能与原作者取得联系。若涉及版权问题，敬请原作者联系我们。
【欢迎分别回复咖啡 | 镍 | 饲料 | 玻璃 | 黄金 | 菜粕 | 玉米 | 甲醇 | 塑料 | 钢铁 |锌 | 铝 | 螺纹 | PTA | 橡胶 | 大豆 | 糖 | 煤炭 | 石油 | 铜 | 棕榈油 | 棉花 | ETF期权 | 铁合金 | 原油 | 铁矿石 | 茶油 | 鸡蛋 等关键词查看更多『品种系列』干货集锦】后台回复“咖啡”查看本期专题所有内容。
会员俱乐部：线上交友、线下沙龙、项目对接等多种玩法QQ二群：群号119578334，申请注明姓名-公司-职位四个专业微信群：矿业群、能化群、农业群、研究/交易群入群要求：大宗商品产业链从业者、衍生品投资者，每人限入两个群入群方式：添加个人微信号：tzdecode，并发送您的工作名片，我们的工作人员在审核后将安排您入群。由于目前申请人数较多，请您耐心等待，我们会尽快审核通过。
更多玩法：打开扑克投资家菜单栏“使用指南”有惊喜！
历来中国以茶文化著称，但咖啡的产业链体量不得小觑，扑克投资家的咖啡专题，还合您口味吗？