对话劳伦·邓普顿：价值投资正在重获活力，但千万不要试图把握市场时机
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多数投资人或许听过这样一句话：“牛市生于悲观，长于怀疑，成于乐观，死于狂热。”
这句话出自于金融界的传奇人物——有着“全球投资之父”和“20世纪全球十大顶尖基金经理人”之称的约翰·邓普顿。
约翰·邓普顿以其多年来令人印象深刻的“逆向投资”记录而闻名，其中一个著名的故事发生在二战期间。
1939年，在人们还在为萧条和战争恐慌时，邓普顿用借来的1万美元购买了104家公司的各100股股票，当时这些公司的股票价格都在1美元以下。
到1943年，邓普顿的这个投资组合的价值已经上涨至4万美元，年化回报率近50%！
约翰·邓普顿也是全球投资的先锋。他认为，由于有不同的经济盛衰循环，世界各国都具有获利的机会，投资不应限制在单一国家内。
发掘世界各地的投资机会不但可以分散风险，还可以获得更高的利润。
他的邓普顿共同基金曾经为全球的投资者带来数十亿美元的收益。他的投资哲学也已经成为邓普顿基金集团的投资团队以及无数投资人的永恒财富。
2022年5月，聪明投资者有幸采访了约翰·邓普顿爵士的侄孙女——劳伦·C.邓普顿。
劳伦·C.邓普顿。图片来源于Solar Industry官网，2020年，Solar Industry公司任命劳伦·邓普顿为独立董事。
劳伦从小就学习投资，并从她的叔祖父身上受益匪浅。
她曾对外形容，约翰·邓普顿“严格但非常友善”。他们会安排时间非常奇怪的会议约会，例如从下午2:17 到下午2:48，而且气氛非常紧张，她能感觉到与他在一起的时间有限。
例如有一次，在与他会面时，他从桌子上滑过劳伦打印的演示幻灯片说：“我已经读过了。你有什么新消息要告诉我？”
这位传奇的叔祖父对劳伦产生了巨大的影响。优秀的女性投资人屈指可数，而劳伦·邓普顿便是其中之一。
如今劳伦与丈夫一起经营着投资公司Templeton & Phillips Capital Management，该公司专注于世界各地的低价股——类似于邓普顿开创的投资风格。
作为约翰·邓普顿投资思想的传承人之一，劳伦还与丈夫一同撰写了一本书《逆向投资：邓普顿的长赢投资法》（《邓普顿教你逆向投资》的全新修订版），全面展示了约翰·邓普顿的投资生涯和投资原则。
如今，在全球局势动荡、美联储加息、通胀高企、疫情久未化解、人口资源不足等多重多种因素交织下，全球市场一度弥漫着悲观情绪。
桥水基金瑞·达利欧在上个月悲观地表示，接下来市场会像70年代的美国那样发展下去。
但对于逆向投资者来说，悲观往往意味着机会，参与熊市不可避免，也十分必要。
本次采访主要包含四部分内容：关于逆向投资法则、关于邓普顿本人、关于邓普顿的具体投资策略以及关于当今的全球局势。
聪明投资者整理并翻译了采访全文，并将全英文的版本附在“阅读原文”，与你分享……
逆向投资法则如何在中国应用？
聪明投资者 你认为《逆向投资》这本书的哪一部分特别适合中国投资者关注？
劳伦 书中有很多相关的讨论都很值得阅读，但也许“投资中国：巨龙从沉睡中觉醒”这一章会尤其有所帮助。
首先，我们对中国自1980 年代后期以来的长期经济发展持乐观态度。中国自改革开放以来创造了经济奇迹，并且仍有相当大的发展空间，我们相信它会在未来几十年继续前进。
简而言之，不要因短期不确定性或悲观情绪而过于沮丧；从长远来看，这些因素没那么重要。
此外，本章还讨论了如何实施投资策略：在短期的悲观情绪中进行明智的长期投资。逢低买入者必须认识到，股票变得便宜的唯一途径是来自其他人的卖出。
悲观的情况总归是暂时的，而这将孕育出最好的股价。
聪明投资者 逆向投资是一种非常有效的策略，但为什么很少有人遵循这种策略？
劳伦 这是一个很好的问题，因为许多投资者都认可这个策略，但未能执行。
我们认为，尽管他们的意图是最好的，但许多投资者未能认识到自己的心理和/或生理缺陷。重要的是要认清这些障碍，然后根据需要找到克服它们的方法。总而言之，人类并不是天生就是优秀的投资者。
大多数人说他们永远不会底部卖出，但还是屈服了。在我们看来，这个原因更多是生理性的。
神经科学研究表明，人脑每秒处理多达1000 万比特的信息，但只有多达 40 比特的信息被有意识地处理。如果这些信息刺激大脑中控制战斗或逃跑反应的杏仁核，也会影响你的决策过程。
当你看到屏幕上的绿色时，你的杏仁核已经增加了你的心率，造成呼吸急促，甚至可能出汗。你的头脑会有意识地调查这些闪电般的症状，并得出结论：一些非常真实和非常可怕的事情正在发生。
许多投资者难以承受这些情况，几乎是在下意识的反应中卖出。
对此，约翰·邓普顿爵士有两个解决方法。
首先，他经常保持良好状态，直到股票低于市场20%。在市场抛售或恐慌中，他会以理性的心态做出正确的购买决定。
其次，他总是在办公桌抽屉里放一张他想拥有的股票的“愿望清单”，但他认为它们太贵了。
在市场抛售期间，他已经知道自己想买什么，并且实际上很期待这个机会。他总是说“麻烦就是机会”。
聪明投资者 逆向投资在其他国家可能不如在美国有效。你如何看待这一战略在其他国家的应用，尤其是在“危机”时刻？
劳伦 约翰爵士会成为 20 世纪最伟大的投资者之一，就是靠着他在美国以外的市场应用逆向投资方法。这数十年的经验也是这一策略在全球各国能够成功的证据。
一个简单的事实是，所有金融市场都受制于人性，无论是在美国、欧洲还是亚洲，人们的行为都将是相似且可预测的。
逆向投资策略可能听起来很深奥，但正如约翰爵士解释的那样，这是常识问题。
约翰爵士说，股票成为便宜货的唯一途径是来自其他人的卖出，而投资者出售股票的最常见原因是悲观情绪。
如果投资者的目标是获得高于市场平均水平的回报，那么接受以低价购买股票是该过程的一部分，并且低价只会在公司或者经济困难的情况下出现，或两者同时出现。
聪明投资者 你能告诉我们一些你和邓普顿爵士之间的有趣故事吗？他是如何影响你的投资理念和人生轨迹的？
劳伦 我的最爱故事之一是在我职业生涯的早期，当时我正在巴哈马拜访他。那一年是2000 年，美国市场正接近科技股泡沫的顶部。
我天真地问他买的是什么科技股，他没有拒绝我的问题，而是借此机会将科技股正在发生的事情类比为他一生中多次目睹的另一件事。
他从他的一个童年故事开始说起，当时他和我的祖父都是小男孩，住在家乡田纳西州。
傍晚时分，他和我祖父会走到镇广场附近的一所房子里，那里聚集了许多其他邻居，一个男人会从房子里出来，向所有人挥手，然后回到屋里打开屋子里的电灯。这就是电的传播。
（注：这就是在描述人性，大家为什么往一个地方聚集。而灯也会熄灭，又打开……）
他说他研究过这个事件，然后他带我浏览了广播、电视、汽车、航空旅行中类似的市场猜测。
他向我展示，我们今天所看到的市场，过去曾发生过很多次，其在市场上的结果也是相同的。
聪明投资者 用三个词描述你心中的邓普顿爵士？
劳伦 目的性强的、理性的、有远见的。
聪明投资者 你和约翰·邓普顿都是在田纳西长大的。你能描述一下你的家乡吗？什么样的本土文化和邓普顿家族的哪些特点帮助约翰·邓普顿取得了成功？
劳伦 温彻斯特（Winchester）是田纳西州的一个小镇，位于坎伯兰高原脚下。
当我在那里长大的时候，当然也是当他在那里长大的时候，这个小镇很小，大多数人都互相认识。
在家庭文化上，我认为重要的是大多数人的地位与他们的性格与有关。诚实、有职业道德的人会拥有与之匹配的财富与智慧。
而我的曾祖父母就早早向约翰爵士和我的祖父灌输了人生目标感。
约翰爵士认为，每个人都被赋予了某些才能，人们有责任培养这些才能并与世界分享。他从小就相信自己有投资天赋，因此他成年后的大部分时间都致力于投资全球股票市场来帮助人们积累财富。
所以，我认为他非常聪明，是一位才华横溢的投资者，但他也为他的职业赋予了更深层次的精神意义，因为这是他帮助人们的方式——这是他的最终目的。
在他生命的后期，他重新致力于在精神上帮助人们，如今他的努力仍然通过他创立的基金会进行，即约翰·邓普顿基金会。
劳伦·邓普顿与约翰·邓普顿。图片来源于Budget Babe官网。
聪明投资者 你认为约翰·邓普顿投资生涯的里程碑是什么？什么样的信念促使他成为一名伟大的全球投资者？
劳伦 他很早就认识到人性在金融市场中所扮演的角色，以及人类行为的共同因素如何影响证券价格。
他告诉我，他在耶鲁时，他的同学和朋友只投资美国股票，他认为这种观点是有害的，无论是出于傲慢还是无知。
那时，他决定开始他的投资生涯，致力于在世界各地的交易所寻找投资标的，而不仅仅是在美国。
对他来说，重要的信念是知识上的谦逊，以及探索大多数人不看的机会，这是优秀的投资者的基本原则。
在华尔街建立自己的职业生涯后，他成了推广共同基金的早期先驱和信徒。他的公司推出了许多共同基金，他认为这对美国经济至关重要，这样中产阶级也可以通过股票市场积累财富。
他坚信，自由市场的力量可以推动人类进步和繁荣，而共同基金则能吸引更多参与者。这两个见解也使他被称为“全球投资之父”。
至于是什么让他成为了一位伟大的全球投资者，他了解人类行为，并且无论地域如何，所有金融市场的行为都基本相同。
确实，不同国家经济不同、财产权不同、会计不同，但人类行为在市场中的作用是不变的，他对这一点了解得很好，可以利用偶尔的短视、冲动、情绪等来做出明智的投资并产生卓越的回报。
聪明投资者 约翰·邓普顿是如何挑选公司的？在这方面你和他有什么相同点和不同点？
劳伦 他是一个自下而上的选股者，专注于寻找便宜货。
他寻找便宜货的基础主要是量化的、有方法论的。他专注于寻找相对于公司可能的长期收益而言过于低迷的股价，他想购买未来十年市盈率低于2倍的股票。
自从我向他学习后，我们的流程基本相同。我们寻找便宜货，并从量化过程开始。一个可能的区别是我会额外分析财务报表，但核心原则是相同的。
聪明投资者 你们都专注于全球价值投资。你认为如何做好全球价值投资？如何避免价值陷阱？
劳伦 成功的价值投资应该专注于寻找便宜货，并且为了很好地执行它，应该将当前股价与公司收益、现金流的可能业绩结果进行比较。
寻找便宜货的最佳机会总是在短视的悲观情绪中诞生，在这样的市场中，人们会因为悲观而卖出，而公司的未来价值却被忽视。
为了找到真正的便宜货并避免价值陷阱，重要的是识别具有合理长期未来的公司的股票。
在公司层面，投资者必须区分临时问题和永久性问题。
价值陷阱往往具有持久甚至永久的问题。如果一家公司的管理者以牺牲股东为代价来奖励自己，这可能是一个棘手的问题，并且会持续到未来。
如果一家公司的产品有被淘汰的风险，那也是一个持久的甚至是永久性的问题。那些负债累累的公司可能无法履行未来的义务，并将面临破产。
聪明投资者 通常当股票价格便宜时，客户会恐慌并倾向于赎回，而不是增加更多的资金投入。
在这种情况下，资产管理公司不得不卖出而不是买入更多股票。你能分享一些在这些情况下如何实施逆向投资的经验吗？而如果客户在恐慌时追加投资，如何进行仓位管理？
劳伦 是的，你描述了人性的一个共同问题。对于专业的便宜货猎手来说，这无疑是难以管理的。
在我们看来，第一个解决方案是本杰明·富兰克林的建议，即“一盎司的事前预防抵得过一磅的事后治疗”。
（富兰克林在1736 年创造了这个经典短语，以提醒费城市民对火灾意识和预防保持警惕）
因此，我们非常谨慎地传达我们的投资流程以及市场观点，努力确保我们的投资者了解交易。很幸运的是，我们拥有一个具有长期视野并了解参与熊市的必要性的客户群体。
不过，为了深层次解决你的问题，我们有一个机制可以引导我们在市场被高估时卖出，在市场被低估时买入。这就是自下而上的决策流程，以及对股价与内在价值匹配度的关注。
换句话说，这是一种自我纠正机制，可以通过自下而上的驱动流程提高现金水平，这与我们的理念一致。
即哪怕我们发现自己处于可以100%投资的市场环境中时，我们也将继续寻找比现有投资组合更好的机会。
约翰爵士认为，当你发现有一个东西比你手上的还要好50%时，更换当前持有的股票就是有意义的。
该指南对我们非常有帮助，我们可以持续专注于寻找更好的便宜货。
如何判断市场恐慌到了极致？
聪明投资者 如何判断市场恐慌到了极致？还是说你不会在投资时考虑这个问题？
劳伦 找不到的。不幸的是，直到恐慌过去你才能知道底部在哪里。
不过，我们的经验是，“市场最恐慌的位置在哪”并不像大多数投资者认为的那么重要。
在2008 年金融危机期间，我们从 2008 年 8 月开始买入，但直到 2009 年 3 月，即6个多月以后，市场才触底。在那段时间里，我们持续寻找新的甚至更好的便宜货，这相当于定期升级我们的组合。
我们没有等到最底部才买，但这也带来了多年的强劲投资回报。归根结底，我们并没有因为无法预测市场底部而受到损害。
没有人能把握市场时机，约翰爵士总是说“最好的投资时机就是当你有钱的时候”。他知道，试图把握市场时机会导致大多数投资者做出错误的决定。
聪明投资者 现在全球价值投资的机遇和挑战是什么？
劳伦 机会来自于撒下更大的网，但投资者也需要认识到不同会计准则和投资者保护水平所带来的挑战。
在后一种情况没有吸引力或不透明的情况下，多元化或较小的风险敞口可能是合适的。
聪明投资者 你如何看待在美上市的中概股和中美关系？中国如何融入下一阶段的全球化进程？有哪些机遇和挑战？
劳伦 在美国上市的中概股ADR的内在危险是美国投资者缺乏所有权和财产权。
ADR代表离岸住所的可变利益实体，并不代表标的公司的实际所有权。它们实际上是跟踪股票。
（ADR是一种用美元挂牌的股票工具，其英文全称为American depositary receipt，翻译为美国存托凭证，一般说的美股市场的中国概念股，都是ADR）
我们一直了解这些结构，但在2020 年年中，我们对中美之间的地缘政治局势感到紧张，并出售了我们自 2015 年年中就开始持有的阿里巴巴的剩余ADR。
全球化带来的机遇是巨大而明显的，自由经济制度下的创新推动人类进步，而我们都可以从中受益。
如今美国的中产群体享受着约翰·洛克菲勒都没有的生活水平，而今天的中国人享受着四十年前难以想象的生活水平。
然而，挑战也是艰巨的。
因为从西方的角度来看，产权（property rights）是一个组成部分，而这是西方自由企业资本主义制度的根本关键。
产权至关重要，因为它们支撑企业信任度，激励冒险精神和引领人类进步的企业家精神。当这些激励措施失效时，竞争就会减弱，进步会放缓，并可能导致生活水平停滞不前。
价值投资已死了吗？
聪明投资者 在过去的十年里，成长股（特斯拉、微软、谷歌等）的表现优于价值股，人们都在说价值已经死了。
追逐势头的投资者获得了可观的回报，而逆向投资者则处境艰难。这种现象背后的主要驱动力是什么？你认为这种现象会在未来十年继续吗？
劳伦 约翰爵士总是说：“在过去十年中最成功的股票和选股方法，在接下来的十年中往往是不成功的。”
过去十年科技股成功的两个主要因素可能是：持续的低利率、偏向无形资产的经济演变（即使用新技术开发服务）。
无形资产具有独特的属性，它们最重要的品质之一是它们在成功时能够迅速扩大规模。不同之处在于，这些资产的快速扩展导致赢家通吃，或者赢家最具竞争力的形态。
因此，像谷歌或亚马逊这样的公司可以成倍增长，并在几乎没有竞争的情况下主导他们的服务市场。
低利率的作用也是至关重要的，因为这意味着除了投资这些之外，投资者几乎没有其他选择来获得可比的回报或增长率。
这反过来又促使投资者继续为这些企业的增长提供资金，哪怕公司的损益表上还存在近期亏损。
今天，我们正面临着更高利率的出现以及更有活力的投资选择。
此外，传统的公司已经学习并成功应用了云技术和人工智能技术，这些技术正在推动经济发展，并且新冠疫情加速了这些服务的应用。
迪士尼和Netflix 之间的竞争就是一个很好的例子。
基本上，传统公司已经找到了扩大机会的方法，长期收益和现金流进一步增长的潜力将吸引投资者的资本，这可能会损害过去十年主导投资格局的公司（即成长股的主导优势会逐步消失）。
《逆向投资：邓普顿的长赢投资法》
劳伦·C.邓普顿 斯科特·菲利普斯 著
中信出版集团
出版时间：2022年5月
附 英文原文：
1. Which part of the book do you think is particularly suitable for Chinese investors to pay attention to?
There are many relevant discussions, but perhaps the chapter “The Sleeping Dragon Awakens” is helpful for a number of reasons. First, it shares Sir John’s optimism for China’s long-term economic progress dating back to the late 1980s. While China has produced an economic miracle since Deng Xiaoping’s early reforms, it still has considerable room for additional progress, and we believe it will continue to advance in the decades to come. Simply put, do not become too discouraged by short-term uncertainties or pessimism regarding Zero-COVID or regulatory changes; these factors carry less weight from a long-term perspective. Also, as the chapter progresses it discusses how to implement investment selection strategies that look through near-term pessimism to make wise long-term purchases. Bargain hunters must recognize and accept that the only way a stock can become a bargain is from other people selling. The best share price bargains will result from uncertain, difficult, and/or pessimistic circumstances that over time prove to be temporary.
2. Contrarian investing is a very effective strategy, but why are so few people following this strategy?
This is a great question because many investors both acknowledge and commit to these strategies but fail in their execution. We believe that despite their best intentions many investors fail to recognize their own psychological and/or physiological shortcomings. It is important to determine these impediments and then find ways to override them as needed. In sum, humans are not wired to be good investors. We believe that selling at the bottom is a “preconscious” decision, meaning that most people say they will never do it, but nevertheless succumb. The cause is more physiological, in our opinion. Neuroscientific studies have shown that the human brain is processing as many as 10 million bits of information per second, but only as many as 40 bits of information are being consciously processed. If this information stimulates a group of nuclei in the brain called the amygdala, which controls the fight or flight response, then it too will impact your decision-making process. By the time your conscious mind processes the red on your screen, your amygdala has already increased your heart rate, created shortness of breath, and perhaps even some perspiration. Your conscious mind will survey these lightning-quick symptoms and conclude that something very real and very horrible is occurring. So many investors struggle withstanding these circumstances and sell in an almost preconscious response. Sir John had two notable workarounds. First, he often kept standing good till canceled orders on stocks he liked 20% below the market. In market selloffs or panics, the correct decision to buy—also a preconscious one—had already been made by him in a rational state of mind. Second, he always kept a “wish list” of stocks he wanted to own in his desk drawer but had thought they were too expensive. During a market selloff, he already knew what he wanted to buy and was actually looking forward to the opportunity. He always said that “Trouble is Opportunity.”
3. Contrarian investment may be less effective in other countries than in the United States. What do you think of the application of this strategy in other countries, especially during unsettling times?
Sir John became one of the greatest investors of the twentieth century applying contrarian methods in markets outside of the U.S., so we can point to decades of empirical supporting evidence illustrating the success of these strategies. The simple truth is that all financial markets are subject to human nature and that whether the people are located in the U.S., Europe, or Asia, their behaviors will prove similar and predictable. Contrarian investment strategies may sound esoteric, but as Sir John explained they are a matter of common sense. Sir John explained that the only way a stock can become a bargain is from other people selling. The most frequent reason investors sell their shares is due to pessimism. If your goal as an investor is to generate returns above the market averages, then you must accept that purchasing stocks at bargain prices is part of that process and that bargains only appear under the guise of difficult near-term circumstances for the company, economy, or both.
4. Would you tell us some fun stories between you andyour great uncle? In what way did your great uncle influence your investment philosophy as well as your life trajectory?
Yes, one of my favorites was early in my career and I was visiting him in the Bahamas. The year was 2000, and the U.S. markets were approaching the top of a large bubble in technology shares. I made the innocent mistake of asking him what technology stocks he was buying. Rather than dismiss my question, he took the opportunity to frame what was occurring in technology shares as just another market event that he had witnessed multiple times during his life. He began with a story from his childhood, in which he and my grandfather were young boys, growing up in my own hometown of Winchester, TN. He said in the early evening he and my grandfather would walk to a house near the town square where many other neighbors were gathered and that a man would come out of the house and wave to everyone just before returned inside and switched on the lights to his home. It was the spread of electricity. He then said that he had researched this event and that the time to get of those stocks was three years prior. He then walked me through similar market speculations in radio, televisions, automobiles, and air travel, and by doing so showed me that what we were witnessing today had happened many times in the past, and its outcome in the markets would prove the same.
5. What do you think are 3 adjectives that describe Sir John Templeton?
Purposeful, rational, and future-minded.
6. Both you and your great uncle grew up in Tennessee. Could you describe your hometown? What kind of local culture and what characteristics of the Templeton family helped Sir John Templeton achieve success?
Yes, Winchester is a small town in TN located at the foot of the Cumberland Plateau. When I was growing up there, and certainly when he grew up there, the town was small enough that most people knew each other. I think what was important was that most people’s standing was measured in terms of their character. Their degree of honesty, and work ethic conferred as least as much, if not more stature as their wealth or intelligence. My great-grandparents instilled Sir John and my grandfather with a sense of purpose in life. Sir John believed that every human is endowed with certain talents and that we have a responsibility to cultivate those talents and share them with the world. He believed from an early age that he had a talent for investing, and so he dedicated most of his adult life to helping people accumulate wealth through their savings by investing on their behalf in the global stock markets. So, I think that while he was very intelligent and a talented investor, he also attached a deeper spiritual meaning to his career as it being his way to help people—which was his ultimate purpose. Later in his life, he rededicated his purpose to help people in spiritual matters, and his efforts there are still being conducted through the foundations he founded, namely the John Templeton Foundation.
7. What do you think are the milestones throughout John Templeton's investment career? What beliefs does he hold that made him a great global investor?
He recognized early in his life the role that human nature plays in the financial markets and how the common elements of human behavior affect security prices. He told me that when he was at Yale, his classmates and friends only invested in U.S.-based stocks, and he considered this view detrimental, whether owed to arrogance or ignorance. He decided from there that he would dedicate his investment career to looking for investments all over the world’s exchanges, and not just in the U.S. The important belief or mindset was one of intellectual humility and the need to explore opportunities where most people are not looking, which is a basic tenet of skilled investors. After he established his career on Wall Street, he became an early pioneer and believer in the spread of mutual funds. His firm launched many mutual funds, and he saw this as a critical matter for the U.S. economy so that the middle class could also enjoy the benefits of capitalism through wealth accumulation in the stock market. He was a fervent believer in the power of free-market-based capitalism as a path toward human progress and prosperity. He thought it was important for these ideas to spread, and he saw that drawing in more participants through mutual funds could help them spread. These two insights led him to become known as the father of global investing. In regard to what made him a great global investor, he understood human behavior, and that it was basically the same across all financial markets, irrespective of geography. It is true that economies differ, property rights differ, accounting practices differ and so on, but human behavior’s role in the markets is a constant and he understood it well enough to exploit its occasional short-sightedness, impulses, emotions, etc. to make wise investments and generate superior returns.
8. How did John Templeton pick companies? What are the similarities and differences between you and him in terms of that?
He was a bottom-up stock picker focused on bargain hunting. His basis for locating bargains was primarily quantitative and methodical. He was focused on finding share prices that were too depressed relative to the probable long-term earnings of the company. He wanted to purchase shares that traded at less than a 2x P/E on earnings ten years into the future. Since I learned from him, our process is primarily the same. We look for bargains and also begin with a quantitative process. One possible difference is that we have applied his methods through additional perspectives of the financial statements, but the core tenets are the same.
9. Both you and your great uncle focus on global value investing. How do you think global value investment should be done well? Do you think value investing is effective in China? How to avoid value traps?
Successful value investing should be focused on locating bargains, and in order to execute it well, the perspective should compare the current share price with the likely performance outcome of the company’s earnings and cash flows. The best opportunities for locating bargains will always be found in markets where short-sighted pessimism is driving the selling process, and the future values are being ignored. In order to find a real bargain and avoid a value trap, it is important to identify the shares in companies that have a reasonably good long-term future. As an investor, you must distinguish between temporary and permanent problems at the company level. Value traps often possess lasting or even permanent problems. If a company has managers that reward themselves at the expense of shareholders, that may represent a sticky problem that will persist well into the future. If a company has a product that is at risk of becoming obsolete, that too is a persistent or perhaps even permanent problem. Companies that have overloaded their balance sheets with debt may not be able to meet their future obligations and will face bankruptcy.
10. Usually when stocks are cheap, clients would panic and tend to redeem money rather than buy more shares. In this situation, asset managers may have to sell rather than buy more stocks. Would you share some experience on how to implement contrarian investing in this situation? And if your clients buy more at panic, how do you manage your positions?
Yes, you describe a common facet of human nature, and certainly a difficult circumstance for professional bargain hunters to manage. The first solution, in our opinion, is the advice of Benjamin Franklin, that “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of a cure.” So, at our firm, we are very careful to communicate our process and the role that these market events play in generating attractive returns. We try to make sure that our investors know the deal on the front end, and we are fortunate to be blessed with a client base that has a long-term orientation and understands the necessity of successfully participating in bear markets. To address the mechanics of your question though, our bottom-up process and reliance on share prices versus intrinsic values guide us towards selling as markets become overvalued and purchases when markets become undervalued. In other words, there is a self-correcting mechanism that raises levels of cash on a bottom-up-driven process that is consistent with our philosophy. When we find ourselves in market circumstances where we are fully invested, we will continue searching for even better opportunities than the ones present in our portfolio. Sir John believed it made sense to replace a current holding when you find one “50% better” and so this guideline has been very helpful to us so that we stay continuously focused on locating better bargain opportunities.
11. How to find the “peak of panic”? Or do you even consider this when investing?
No, and unfortunately this cannot be known until it has passed. However, our experience has been that it does not matter as much as most investors believe. During the financial crisis of 2008, we began buying in August of 2008, but the market did not bottom some six months later until March 2009. We continued to search for new and even better bargains across that time period, and this amounted to periodically upgrading our portfolio as the bear market persisted. It led to years of strong investment returns though, and in the final analysis, we were not undermined by an inability to anticipate the bottom of the market. No one can time the market, and Sir John always said “the best time to invest is when you have the money.” He knew that trying to time the markets would lead most investors to make poor decisions.
12. What are the opportunities and challenges of global value investing?
The opportunities come from casting a wider net, but investors also need to appreciate the challenges that come from differing accounting standards and levels of investor protection. In cases where the latter circumstances are unattractive or not transparent diversification or smaller exposures may be appropriate.
13. What do you think of US-listed Chinese stocks and the US-China relationship in the next decade? How does China integrate itself into the next phase of globalization? What are the opportunities and challenges?
The inherent danger through U.S. listed Chinese ADRs is the lack of ownership and property rights to the U.S. investor. The ADRs represent variable interest entities in offshore domiciles that do not represent real ownership in the underlying company. They are de facto tracking stocks. We had always understood these structures, but in mid-2020, we became nervous over the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China and sold our last remaining ADR in Alibaba, which we had owned since mid-2015. The opportunities from globalization are large and obvious, we can all benefit from the advance of human progress through innovation in a free-enterprise capitalist system. Middle-class Americans enjoy a standard of living that John D. Rockefeller did not, and the Chinese today enjoy standards of living that were unimaginable only forty years ago. The challenges are difficult, however, because from the Western perspective property rights are a component, and these are the fundamental lynchpin of the Western free-enterprise capitalist system. They are fundamental because they support trust and incentivize risk-taking and the entrepreneurial spirit that leads to human progress. When these incentives are dulled, competition erodes, progress slows, and leads a potential stagnation in the standard of living.
14. In the past decade, growth stocks (Tesla, Microsoft, etc.) generally outperformed value stocks. Some people say value investing is dead as investors chasing momentum stocks make decent returns, while contrarian investors had a hard time. What are the drivers behind this phenomenon? Do you think this phenomenon will continue in the next decade?
Sir John always said that “stocks and methods of selection that were most successful in the past ten years often prove unsuccessful in the next ten.” The two major factors supporting the successful tech stocks of the past decade were likely: persistently low-interest rates and the economic evolution towards intangible assets (i.e., the use of new technologies to develop services). Intangible assets carry unique attributes, and one of their most important qualities is their ability to scale rapidly when successful. The differentiating aspect is that the rapid scaling of these assets leads to a winner takes all, or winner takes the most competitive dynamic. Therefore, a company such as Google or Amazon can grow exponentially and dominate their market for services while facing little competition. The role of low-interest rates was critical because it meant that investors had few investment alternatives for comparable returns or growth rates outside of investing in these businesses. This in turn gave investors the mindset to continue supplying capital for these businesses’ growth despite the presence of near-term losses on the income statement. Today, we are facing the emergence of higher interest rates and the more dynamic investment alternatives that accompany them to generate returns. Moreover, old economy firms have learned and adopted the successful cloud-based and AI technologies that are proliferating the economy, and the adoption of these services has been accelerated due to COVID. The competitive dynamics between Disney and Netflix are a great example. Basically, firms outside of the traditional technology plays have found ways to expand their opportunity set, and the potential for additional growth in long-term earnings and cash flows will attract investor capital, potentially at the expense of the firms that dominated the investment landscape of the previous ten years.
编辑：伊娜
责编：艾暄
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全球投资之父约翰·邓普顿：
长期投资者要做好经历多个牛市、熊市的准备。
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