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中美最强暗战……

凭海观潮 2020-08-17


  凭海观潮 长按关注  

这些都还仅仅是开头,未来还会有很多续集……


中美最强暗战

作者/来源:如松


特朗普在2017年1月就任美国总统之后,在国际上做出的最大动作是什么?第一是对世界发起贸易战。贸易战对部分国家仅仅是经济问题,但对于另外一些国家却绝不仅仅是经济问题,会造成经济和社会体系的全面冲击,所以,贸易战对不同国家的影响是截然不同的,不可一概而论。以前说过这个话题,但现在已经不方便再说。第二就是退出伊核协议,这是美国对伊朗政策的彻底逆转。相当于原来美国、英国、法国、俄罗斯、中国、德国再加上欧盟和伊朗大家一起打牌,特朗普上任之后掀了桌子、拍屁股走人了。然后对伊朗重归强硬,采取了一系列的经济制裁措施。

特朗普的贸易战,主要目标之一就是中国,因中国是美国最大的贸易顺差国,贸易战也已经对中国社会造成了全方位的冲击。虽然在特朗普发动贸易战的过程中中国也做出了一定程度的反击,但这种反击很难对等,终归两国之间进出口是不平衡的,而且美国是发达国家而中国是发展中国家,就很难在贸易冲突中对等。

但你有“初一”,我有“十五”,今天,中国开始进行硬碰硬的真正反击。

特朗普希望通过经济制裁制服伊朗,解决伊朗对美国、以色列和沙特等国的威胁,当伊朗认怂之后,美国就可以撤出在中东的很多军事力量执行东方的亚太战略,同时,伊朗认怂,中俄在中东的政策也就失去了战略支点,这是特朗普摆明了的小算盘。

但如果有人打破美国对伊朗的封锁,相当于让特朗普在国际舞台上上演了一幕N级片,这是典型的裸奔事件。这不仅对特朗普而且对美国在世界上的声誉都会带来严重的打击,相当于被人当面啪啪打脸。

或许您说,特朗普是美国总统,美国到今天依旧还是世界上唯一的超级大国,谁敢这么干?但真有人这么干了。



据腾讯7月13日报道:近日,伊朗官方公布了这样一则消息,伊朗称中伊之间有意达成一份长达25年的战略协议,据悉这项协议,涵盖双方能源项目、基建项目、经济以及国家安全等诸多领域的合作。有媒体称,这份战略协议一旦签订后,中国将在25年内对伊朗各领域投资4000亿美元,这些项目将涵盖伊朗的银行行业、电信行业、港口项目以及铁路等项目,总投资项目在近100项。

这个协议实际包含两方面的内涵:上述所说的都是经济上的内涵,但真正能支撑经济内内容的是军事上的“协议”,因为伊朗在面对以色列、沙特、美国等国的军事压力,中国也在面对印太战略的压力,中国向伊朗输出的是资本和部分商品与服务,伊朗向中国输出的只能是石油,只有有效的军事合作才有可能保证原油的运输,让经济合作得以推进。同时,当双方进行军事协作之后,美军就无法从中东向亚洲收缩战线,可以打破美国的军事战略。

在历任美国总统中,奥巴马和特朗普在国际事务中都是很弱势的。或许有很多人不同意这个观点,但却无法否认下述事实。奥巴马在外事活动中居然被逼迫从专机的后门下机,而这位老兄居然可以忍气吞声,这不代表奥巴马“大人大量”,而是严重损害了美国的尊严。特朗普带领美国回归传统、发展经济、休养生息等举措,或许都是对的,但在外事活动中的所作所为也不敢恭维。比如,老大哥解体之后,美军在海外的重要军事装备几乎没人敢主动攻击,但在川建国任期内,美军的全球鹰无人机(这可是2亿美元一架的宝贝)就被伊朗明目张胆地击落;在以往,美国总统如果提出与某国领导人会面,这些国家的领导人都会“跑步”前往,但前些日子特朗普希望在美国召开面对面的G7会议,默克尔居然说“我没空”,而马克龙也说“既然人都凑不齐我也不去了”……

一代帝国的尊严已经严重受损。

如果中伊的合作协议得以执行,意味着特朗普对伊朗政策的彻底失败。此时,如果特朗普继续无所作为,手下的幕僚不干,军方也会有想法,甚至美国的民意也会剧烈爆发,他还能连任总统吗?结果,赶鸭子上架了,如此,就有了以下的密集动作:

第一,渔村国安法通过之后,美国国会全票通过了渔村自治法案,由于这个法案在国会是全票通过,无论总统签名还是不签名都会成为法律。但特朗普一直拖着,最后一天还是签了。

第二,4000亿美元的投资足以打破美国对伊朗的经济制裁,伊朗只能向中国输出石油归还投资款,而伊朗到中国的原油航线必然经过南海,所以也就有了“人民公敌”彭培奥关于南海问题的声明。过去在南海问题上,美国一直采取的是不选边站的政策,现在的声明,公然站到了越南、菲律宾等国一边,这是与谁为敌?很明显。

或许有朋友说,控制了南海不等于控制了马六甲海峡和印度洋,伊朗到中国东部沿海的原油航线依旧有问题,南海的意义没那么大。但如果中方控制了南海,就可以要求印太战略的各国保护中国油轮在马六甲、印度洋等地的安全,否则日本、韩国、弯弯家的油轮怎么通过南海?所以,控制了南海就可以进行利益交换,也就有了油路的安全。美帝在南海问题上转变态度,就是为了摆脱这种交换。

南海,是各方争夺的焦点,谁都没有退路,最终需要一战。

第三,既然经济制裁已经无法达到制服伊朗的目的,“影子战争”打响了。

两个国家之间具有重大影响力的协议,尤其涉及到了伊朗,要说美国和以色列的情报部门不会提前听到风声是不可能的,它们会比媒体更早知道相关内容。既然经济制裁已经难以达到效果,对伊朗的行动就升级了。

伊朗发展核能力主要威胁的是谁?第一是以色列,第二是沙特、阿联酋等中东逊尼派各国,第三是美国的利益。所以,正在伊朗爆发的影子战争自然与这三方有关。



据外媒报道,6月28日至现在,伊朗境内发生了十几次神秘的爆炸,包括纳坦兹核设施、德黑兰以东的帕尔钦军事基地、导弹仓库、一些电力化工基地和海港的舰船等都被炸毁。伊朗原子能机构发言人贝赫鲁兹·卡马尔万迪也承认,发生爆炸的核设施于2013年建造,用于开发先进的离心机,大火损坏了“精密和测量仪器”。一些国际观察家也认为,爆炸将让伊朗的核浓缩能力倒退数月甚至数年。

最严重的是,伊朗的关键设施不断被炸,自己也很想还手,可茫然四顾却找不到凶手,也就无法做出反击行动,伊朗现在正在与“影子”作战。如果仅凭猜测就向别国(以色列、沙特、阿联酋、美国等)反击,在国际上就得不到支持,也没人敢支持,这样的官司即便打到联合国也没戏。

但可以频繁地进入伊朗进行轰炸活动,只能是隐形飞行器(F35或无人机)所为。要知道伊朗必然会在自己的重要军事设施和基础设施附近安装雷达系统,这些地方也会部署防空导弹系统(伊朗既有国产防空导弹系统,也有俄罗斯的S300),但却无法阻止别人的飞行器静悄悄地来、静悄悄地走。谁有这样的能力哪?估计全世界有这种能力的国家不会超过三四个吧。再加上伊朗对以色列的威胁,以及以色列的行事风格,大概也就知道谁是凶手了。当然,沙特、阿联酋甚至阿塞拜疆等国出点钱或提供军事帮助也是可以理解的。

这肯定是“团伙作案”,因为伊朗的核设施威胁的不是以色列一个国家,众多黑手中有一只就应该是美国。

这场影子战争必定会载入军事史册,改变世界的军事史,因为它开启了全新的不对称战争。美国通过影子战争在警告伊朗,这里不仅有经济大棒,但如果你敢签订这样的协议,那就换狼牙棒。

所以,美国对伊朗的制裁、媒体透露的中国与伊朗之间的合作协议、人民公敌彭培奥在南海的声明、伊朗正在进行的“影子战争”、日本再次购买105架F35(主要目的之一当然是为了保护自己的海洋运输线)等,本质都是一件事。

最终要问一问,上述故事为什么会发生?

其一,自然是中国、美国、伊朗之间的战略博弈所决定的;其二,这是原油战争的现代版。

我以前说过二战时期的原油故事,从某种意义来说,原油决定了二战的进程与结果。因为战争是依靠经济能力支持的,而原油是一国经济的“血液”,原油供给的“血脉”也就决定了战争的结局。

在此必须申明,世界处于和平时期与冲突时期,原油的地位是有根本性不同的。缘于在于在经济全球化的和平时期,所有国家的能源供给基本上都是有保证的,因为“警察”在保护着世界的和平和所有海洋航线的安全,差异仅仅在于原油价格高低的问题,即原油供给问题可以通过钱来解决。逆全球化时代到来,意味着没有任何一个国家再有能力保护世界的和平,世界警察退休了,地缘政治冲突就会不断爆发,各国都会在自己的“自留地”里胡作非为,海运航线就不再安全。所以,当世界进入冲突模式时,原油供给已经不再是价格问题,这是钱解决不了的问题,对于有进口依存度的国家来说原油的地位就会跳升。(不仅原油,在动荡年代粮食和军火也是钱无法解决的问题)此时,亚欧多数经济大国(除俄罗斯外原油都无法自给)都会面临自己的工业能力、经济规模与原油供给之间难以匹配的问题,即获取原油的能力或无法支撑自己的经济规模;也会面临经济规模、原油需求与军事能力可能无法匹配的问题,源于此时必须以自身的军事实力来保证自己的原油供给地安全与海洋运输航线的安全,进而满足自己对原油的需求。此时,日本、韩国、中国、德国、法国、印度等都要自己为自己的原油供给和原油航线负责,在这样的背景下就有了中国与伊朗之间的故事以及俄罗斯与德国之间关于北溪-2号天然气管线的故事,大家都在修建自己的原油“动脉”。

因此,如果以历史的眼光来看,二战时期所发生的原油故事在今天依旧在上演……未来还会继续。也或者说,以原油脉络这个“眼光”来看,三战已经开始了,新冠病毒的全球大流行和在伊朗爆发的“影子战争”都可以归为三战的一部分。

但这些都还仅仅是开头,未来还会有很多续集……最终结果?还早着哪,只有历史会给出最终的答案。




50. All you can do is to try your best. Even with those small steps, you're closer to your goal than you were yesterday. 我们能做的只是拼尽全力,即使迈出的步子再小,也比昨天要更接近自己的目标。51. A smile is the shortest distance between two people. 微笑是人与人之间最短的距离。52. Do or do not. There is no try. 要么做,要么滚!没有试试看这一说。53. Courage is being afraid but going on anyhow. 勇气就是虽感恐惧,但仍会前行。54. A man can be destroyed but not defeated. 人可以被毁灭,但不可以被打败。55. A truly happy person is one who can enjoy the scenery while on a detour. 真正快乐的人是那种在走弯路时也不忘享受风景的人。56. No dream is too big, and no dreamer is too small. 梦想再大也不嫌大,追梦的人再小也不嫌小。57. It doesn't matter how many times you fail. What matters is how many times you stand up and try again. 失败多少次不重要,重要的是你能重新站起来多少次,并且继续前行。58. Silence is the most powerful cry. 沉默是最有力的呐喊。《美丽人生》 59. A little consideration, a little thought for others makes all the difference. 一点点体贴,一点点为他人着想,会让一切都不一样。60. Stop waiting for things to happen.Go out and make them happen. 别指望事情会自然发生,行动起来,让它们变成可能!61. Don't look forward to tomorrow, don't miss yesterday, to grasp today. 不憧憬明天,不留念昨天,只把握今天。62. Now we don't call it alive. It's just not to die. 我们现在不叫活着,这只是没有死去。《疯狂原始人》 63. You can change your life if you want to. Sometimes you have to be hard on yourself, but you can change it completely. 有志者事竟成。有时虽劳其筋骨,但命运可以彻底改变。《唐顿庄园》 64. Time will bring a surprise, if you believe. 时间会带来惊喜,如果你相信的话。《浮生物语》 65. What others think is not important . How you feel about yourself is all that matters. 别人怎么想并不重要,你怎么看自己才是关键。66. Don't cry because it is over,smile because it happened. 不要因为结束而哭泣,微笑吧,因为你曾经拥有。67. Tomorrow is never clear. Our time is here. 明天是未知的,我们还是享受此刻吧!《摇滚夏令营》 68. Life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all. 生活要么大胆尝试,要么什么都不是。69. Pursue excellence and success will follow. 追求卓越,成功自然来。《三傻大闹宝莱坞》 70. Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world. 爬上山顶并不是为了让全世界看到你,而是让你看到整个世界。71. Every step towards your dream today is a step away from your regret tomorrow. 今日为梦想所付出的每一份努力都会减少明日的一份后悔。72. It's never too late to be what you might have been. 勇敢做自己,永远都不迟。(乔治·艾略特) 73. It's time to start living the life you've imagined. 是时候开始过自己想要的生活了!95. How can men succumb to force? 男人怎么能屈服于“武力”之下?《海贼王》 96. Life is like live TV show. There is no rehearsal. 人生没有彩排,只有现场直播。97. Dress shabbily and they remember the dress; dress impeccably and they remember the woman. 穿着破旧,人们记住衣服;穿着无瑕,人们则记住衣服里的女人。(Coco Chanel) 98. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies. 希望是一件好事,也许是人间至善,而美好的事永不消逝。《肖申克的救赎》 99. There are so many beautiful reasons to be happy. 有太多太多美好的理由让你笑对生活。100. Where the more different you are, the better. 你们之间越是不同,越好。(Glee) 101. I'm only brave when I have to be. Being brave doesn't mean you go looking for trouble. 我只在必要时才勇敢,勇敢并不代表你要到处闯祸。《狮子王》 102. Behind every successful man there's a lot of unsuccessful years. 每个牛B的成功者都经历过苦B的岁月。(鲍博.布朗) 103. If you want something done, do it yourself. 靠谁都不如靠自己。《第五元素》 104. Life is a wonderful journey. Make it your journey and not someone else's. 生命是一段精彩旅程,要活的有自己的样子,而不是别人的影子。105. No matter how many mistakes you make or how slowly you progress, you are already ahead of those who never tried. 无论你犯了多少错,或者进步得有多慢,你都走在了那些不曾尝试的人的前面。106. Some things are so important that they force us to overcome our fears. 总有些更重要的事情,赋予我们打败恐惧的勇气。107. Say to yourself: "No matter how many obstacles I encounter in life, I will do all that I can to complete the whole course." 请对自己说:无论生活之路上会遇到多少障碍,我会竭尽所能地跑完这一程。108. No cross, no crown. 不经历风雨,怎么见彩虹。109. Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of value. 与其努力成功,不如努力成为有价值的人。(爱因斯坦) 110. Remember when life's path is steep to keep your mind even. 记住:当人生很苦逼的时候,你要保持淡定。111. If you're brave enough to say GOODBYE, life will reward you with a new HELLO. 只要你勇敢地说出再见,生活一定会给你一个新的开始。112. Sometimes the right path is not the easiest one. 对的那条路,往往不是最好走的。113. Just trust yourself, then you will know how to live. 只要相信自己,你就会懂得如何去生活。114. In life it's not where you go. It's who you travel with. 生命中,重要的不是你去哪里,而是与谁同行。115. Life is like a rainbow. You don't always know what's on the other side, but you know it's there. 生活像一道彩虹,你不知道另一端通向哪里,但你会知道,它总是在那里。116. When the world says,"Give up!"Hope whispers,"Try it one more time." 当全世界都在说“放弃”的时候,希望却在耳边轻轻地说:“再试一次吧”!117. I don't care about other questions and I just try to be myself. 我不在乎别人的质疑,我只会做好自己。118. Attempt doesn't necessarily bring success, but giving up definitely leads to failure. 努力不一定成功,但放弃一定失败!119. The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today. 对明天最好的准备就是今天做到最好。120. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart. 你已经一无所有,没有什么道理不顺心而为。(乔布斯) 121. Life is a journey, one that is much better traveled with a companion by our side. 人生是一场旅程,我们最好结伴同行。122. Sometimes you have to fall before you can fly. 有时候,你得先跌下去,才能飞起来。123. If you are able to appreciate beauty in the ordinary, your life will be more vibrant. 如果你擅于欣赏平凡中的美好,你的生活会更加多姿多彩。124. Be who you are, and never ever apologize for that! 坚持做自己,并永远不要为此而后悔!125. Consider the bad times as down payment for the good times. Hang in there. 把苦日子当做好日子的首付,坚持就是胜利!126. Do not pray for easy lives, pray to be stronger. 与其祈求生活平淡点,还不如祈求自己强大点。127. Everybody can fly without wings when they hold on to their dreams. 坚持自己的梦想,即使没有翅膀也能飞翔。128. There is no such thing as a great talent without great will power. 没有伟大的意志力,便没有雄才大略。129. You can't change your situation. The only thing that you can change is how you choose to deal with it. 境遇难以改变,你能改变的唯有面对它时的态度。130. Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. 凡是值得做的事,就值得做好。131. Perfection is not just about control.It's also about letting go. 完美不仅在于控制,也在于释放。《黑天鹅》 132. Dream is what makes you happy, even when you are just trying. 梦想就是一种让你感到坚持就是幸福的东西。133. Never frown,because you never know who is falling in love with your smile. 别愁眉不展,因为你不知道谁会爱上你的笑容。134. It's easy once you know how. 一旦你明白,就会很简单。135. In order to be irreplaceable, one must always be different. 要做到不可替代,就要与众不同。136. I honestly think it is better to be a failure at something you love than to be a success at something you hate. 宁愿失败地做你爱做的事情,也不要成功地做你恨做的事情。(George Burns) 137. Don't hide. Run! You'll make it to tomorrow. 别躲避,奔跑吧,你就会找到明天。138. Life comes with many challenges.The ones that should not scare us are the ones we can take on and take control of. 生活充满了挑战,唯有勇敢面对并自我掌控,我们才能克服恐惧。(安吉丽娜·朱莉) 139. Life doesn't just happen to you; you receive everything in your life based on what you've given. 一切发生在你身上的都不是碰巧。你获得什么,在于你付出了什么。140.You are more beautiful than you think. 你,要比你想象的更美丽。141. Throughout life's complications, you should maintain such a sense of elegance. 不管生活有多不容易,你都要守住自己的那一份优雅。142. When you feel like giving up, remember why you held on so long in the first place. 每当你想要放弃的时候,就想想是为了什么才一路坚持到现在。143. Enjoy your youth.You'll never be younger than you are at this very moment. 好好享受青春,你再也不会有哪个时刻会比此时更年轻了。144. You'd better bring, cause I'll bring every I've got it. 你最好全神贯注,因为我定会全力以赴!145. Take time to enjoy the simple things in life. 慢慢享受生活中的简单。146. As long as you are still alive, you will definitely encounter the good things in life. 只要活着就一定会遇上好事。147. Hold on, it gets better than you know. 挺住,事情会比你想像中要好!148. If you are fine,the sun will always shine. 你若安好,便是晴天。149. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 磨难会让你更强大。150. Every life deserves our respect. 每一个生命都应该被尊重。151. The best feeling in the world is when you know your heart is smiling. 世间最美好的感受,就是发现自己的心在笑。152. Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. 永远不要低估一颗冠军的心。(Rudy Tomjanovich) 153. There is nothing permanent except change. 唯一不变的是变化。154. The difference between successful persons and others is that they really act. 成功者和其他人最大的区别就是,他们真正动手去做了。155. Don't follow the crowd, let the crowd follow you. 不要随波逐流,要引领潮流。(Margaret Thatcher) 156. People pay in advance for a coffee meant for someone who cannot afford a warm beverage. 人们提前买咖啡,让付不起的人享受温暖。157. No one is born a genius.Just keep on doing what you like and that itself is a talent. 哪有什么天才!坚持做你喜欢的事情,这本身就是一种天赋。(大野智) 158. The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page. 世界是一本书,不旅行的人只读了其中一页。159. You can create something more glorious than the championship. 你可以创造比冠军更荣耀的事。160. You never get a second chance to make a first impression. 永远没有第二次机会,给人留下第一印象。161. You can always be a worse version of "him", or better version of yourself. 你不是要做一个单纯优秀的人,而是要做一个不可替代的人。162. Give every day the chance to become the most beautiful day of your life. 让每一天都有机会成为你人生中最美好的一天。163. Honesty is the best policy. 做人以诚信为本。164. To a crazy ship all winds are contrary. 对于一只漫无目标的船而言,任何方向的风都是逆风。165. The outer world you see is a reflection of your inner self. 你看到什么样的世界,你就拥有什么样的内心。166. Strike while the iron is hot. 趁热打铁。167. Knowing what you cannot do is far more important than knowing what you are capable of. 知道自己不能做什么远比知道自己能做什么重要。168. People cry, not because they're weak. It's because they've been strong for too long. 哭泣,不代表脆弱,只因坚强了太久。169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。     When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Like many who lived through the war, they had experienced enough excitement that, when it was over, they desired simply to settle down, raise a family, and lead a less eventful life. They had little money, so they moved to Wisconsin and lived with Paul’s parents for a few years, then headed for Indiana, where he got a job as a machinist for International Harvester. His passion was tinkering with old cars, and he made money in his spare time buying, restoring, and selling them. Eventually he quit his day job to become a full-time used car salesman. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later来源:小兵说天下

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