后疫情时期世界经济格局的变化与中国机遇——基于马克思经济危机理论视角
《上海财经大学学报》 2021年23卷第1期 页码：3 - 14 online：2021年1月23日
后疫情时期世界经济格局的变化与中国机遇——基于马克思经济危机理论视角
Changes of World Economic Pattern and New Development Opportunities for China in the Post Epidemic Period: From the Perspective of Marx’s Economic Crisis Theory
作者（中）：杨小勇, 吴宇轩
作者（英）：Yang Xiaoyong, Wu Yuxuan
作者单位：1.同济大学 马克思主义学院，上海 200092
摘要：新冠肺炎疫情引发的全球经济衰退将导致后疫情时期世界经济格局发生巨大变化。在马克思政治经济学视域中，经济危机是资本主义无法克服的固有现象。20世纪70年代之后，在新自由主义、经济全球化、金融化等经济发展模式的洗礼下，资本主义固有矛盾进一步激化，当出现新冠肺炎疫情这种破坏力极强的外生冲击的时候，西方主要资本主义国家迅速陷入经济衰退之中。新冠肺炎疫情与此次经济衰退之间存在直接联系，但不存在必然联系，在同样的新冠肺炎疫情冲击下，中国能凭借社会主义制度的优越性，迅速控制疫情，并成为目前唯一复苏的主要经济体。马克思经济危机理论能对此作出科学解释。在后疫情时期，随着中国社会主义制度优势的进一步发挥，世界经济的复苏将对中国经济产生依赖，这将为我国的国际融资、产业升级、消费复苏以及数字经济等领域带来新的发展机遇。我国应制定针对性政策，以此来化危为机，实现“六稳六保”的重要战略目标。
关键词：后疫情时期; 世界经济格局; 马克思经济危机理论; 机遇
Summary: The global economic recession caused by the new epidemic situation will lead to great changes in the world economic pattern in the post epidemic period: The economy of Western developed capitalist countries has been severely damaged, and the long-term economic trend of major developing countries is uncertain. China has basically entered the track of economic recovery. The huge blow to the world economic system caused by this epidemic is closely related to the endogenous contradiction of capitalist economy. In the perspective of Marx’s political economy, economic crisis is an inherent phenomenon that capitalism cannot overcome. After the 1970s, under the baptism of new liberalism, economic globalization, financialization and other economic development trends, the inherent contradictions of capitalism were further intensified. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, which was a devastating exogenous impact, the major Western capitalist countries quickly fell into economic recession. In order to deal with the epidemic crisis, most Western developed capitalist countries have adopted expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, trying to restore market confidence and revive the economy through economic stimulus policies. This will have the following impact on the capitalist economy in the post epidemic period: The transition from Neo liberalism to regulatory capitalism, and the reshaping of the traditional pattern of economic globalization. The impact of the epidemic will not disappear in a short period, and countries that are not in a good position to deal with the epidemic situation may fall into a long-term economic recession. The epidemic is directly related to the economic recession, but not necessarily. Under the same impact of the epidemic, China can quickly control the epidemic by virtue of the superiority of the socialist system, and become the only major economy recovering at present. Marx’s theory of economic crisis can give a scientific explanation. In the post epidemic period, with the further exertion of the advantages of China’s socialist system, the recovery of the world economy will depend on China’s economy, which will bring new development opportunities to China: The continuously optimized business environment is conducive to absorbing more international risk aversion funds, the increasing economic anti-risk ability in the post epidemic period will boost China’s industrial upgrading, domestic consumption recovery ushers in bright development prospects, and digital economy will become a new economic growth point. In order to grasp these opportunities, China should take the following measures: Build a stable and orderly new financial format, ensure the stability of the industrial chain, strengthen the key technologies related to digital economy, stimulate supply side and demand side jointly to help the recovery of consumption, take multiple measures to maintain the stability of employment, and actively participate in the construction of a more effective global governance system.
Key words: post epidemic period; world economy situation; Marx’s theory of economic crisis; opportunity
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jsufe.2021.01.001
收稿日期：2020-7-18
基金项目：国家社科基金年度项目 “全面建成小康社会目标下劳动收入应有份额及实现机制研究”（17BKS053）
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