城市规模、收支剩余与农民工市民化再考察——基于生存工资Anker法的实证研究

City Size, Surplus of Income and Expenditure, and Citizenization of Migrant Workers: An Empirical Study Based on the Anker Method of Living Wage

《上海财经大学学报》2023年25卷第1期 页码：34 - 48 online：2023年2月1日

作者

中：胡雯1, 张锦华2

英：Hu Wen1, Zhang Jinhua2

作者单位：1.北京大学 现代农学院 , 北京 100871; 2.上海财经大学 财经研究所 , 上海 200433

摘要及关键词

摘要：面临错综复杂的就业形势和经济发展任务，有必要分层推进不同规模城市的农民工市民化，以实现中国式现代化和以人为核心的新型城镇化战略。文章基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据和2019年上海财经大学千村调查数据，采用生存工资Anker法测算农民工的市民化经济门槛。研究发现：以典型的三口之家为例，城乡间和城市间的流动人口生存工资分别为3240元、4480元，有能力满足该标准的农民工比例为52.5%和42.6%；运用Biprobit模型识别有市民化需求的农民工，得到满足城市经济门槛的农民工市民化程度为35.5%；用Oaxaca-Blinder分解代际差异后，得到新生代和老一代农民工市民化程度分别为36.7%、33.1%，新生代农民工是市民化的主力；随着城市人口规模的提升，经济门槛也随之抬高，在超大城市的生活成本最高，生存工资城乡差距高达3000元，其他规模城市的经济门槛城乡差异仅为500~1000元。基于此，需要科学核算农民工在不同城市规模的收支差异和市民化意愿，实现“想落尽落，应转尽转”，避免“能落不想落、想落不能落”的窘境。

关键词：农民工市民化；经济门槛；生存工资；城市规模；子女教育

Summary: At present, the COVID-19 epidemic is still repeated, and the world economy is recovering weakly. It is urgent to explore new ways for the global economy to move towards a green, resilient and inclusive recovery. Faced with the complicated employment situation and economic development tasks, it is necessary to promote the citizenization of migrant workers in cities of different sizes in a hierarchical manner, so as to realize the Chinese path to modernization and the new urbanization strategy with people at the core.Based on the China Migrant Dynamic Survey data in 2017 and Chinese Thousand-village Survey data of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics in 2019, we use the living wage Anker method to measure the economic threshold of the citizenization of migrant workers which satisfies the decent survival needs of families. We measure the income and expenditure of migrant workers in cities of different sizes, such as wages, food expenditure, education expenditure and social security payment. The economic threshold lines of citizenization of high level (children’s education expenses are considered) and low level (children’s education expenses are not considered) are discussed. Finally, the Biprobit model is used to measure the citizenization degree of satisfying ability and demand, and Oaxaca-Blinder is used to decompose the difference of citizenization degree between different generations of migrant workers.The findings are as follows: We assume the average family size is three based on the Anker method. According to the two living wage lines of 3240 CNY and 4480 CNY corresponding to migrant workers and urban workers, it is found that 52.5% and 42.6% of migrant workers meet the conditions to settle down in cities. Based on the Biprobit model, we calculate the degree of urbanization is 35.5% under an economic threshold of 3240 CNY. Using the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, the citizenization degree of migrant workers of the new generation and the old generation is 36.7% and 33.1% respectively, and the new generation is the main force of citizenization. With the increase of urban population size, the economic threshold is also raised. The cost of living in megacities is the highest, and the urban-rural gap in living wages is as high as 3000 CNY. The urban-rural gap in the economic threshold of other cities is only 500 to 1000 CNY.Taken together, we should scientifically and accurately assess the income and expenditure differences of rural-urban migrant workers in different cities and their citizenization intentions. Our policy recommendations are as follows: First, accurately assess the living wage and match the economic threshold of citizenization. Second, the household registration reform needs top-level design and the cost-sharing mechanism of central planning.

Key words:citizenization of migrant workers; economic threshold; living wage; city size; education of migrant children

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jsufe.2023.01.003

收稿日期：2022-10-28

基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年项目“零工经济下农民工灵活就业选择研究：特征事实与作用机制”（72203003）；中国博士后科学基金面上项目“数字经济对农村劳动力就业的影响：理论机制与实证检验”（2021M700225）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“教育准入、职业选址与农民工市民化”（72173080）；上海市教委科研创新重大项目“解决相对贫困问题的长效机制研究”

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