2nd COVID Wave over Winter 'Inevitable' in China, Expert Says

• Shanghai specialist points to situation in Europe, saying vaccine will be the only way to contain the pandemic – but that could be at least a year away.

• "Even if a safe and effective vaccine was developed, it could be at least a year before it is widely available".

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A second wave of Covid-19 infections in China over winter is “inevitable” and until a vaccine is available there could be further outbreaks in the country, according to an infectious disease expert.

But Zhang Wenhong, director of the infectious disease department at Huashan Hospital in Shanghai, said even if a safe and effective vaccine was developed, it could be at least a year before it is widely available, according to news website The Paper.

“In China, people have been asking if there will be a second wave of the pandemic in winter. Now that Europe is having a second wave, it is inevitable we will see a second wave of infections,” Zhang was quoted as saying in a speech at a forum in Shanghai end of September.

| Infectious disease expert Zhang Wenhong (centre) says even if a safe and effective vaccine is developed, it may not be widely available for at least a year.

Image: Weibo

He said a vaccine was the only way to contain the pandemic. “But it’s hardly likely that drug makers will be able to produce vaccines and supply them to the market within a year,” he said. He also noted that it could be difficult to identify infections because although the coronavirus was highly contagious, many people had mild cases with no symptoms.

“The biggest problem is that it’s not very lethal, with 80 per cent of people who contract the virus not showing symptoms. It’s so horrible,” Zhang said, adding that the elderly were most vulnerable to the disease and more younger people tended to get infected once health care systems were overwhelmed.

The comments followed similar remarks made by top respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan, who said last week that the virus would “continue to exist” in China over winter and in spring.

“A vaccine is the fundamental solution for the pandemic … it needs countries to collaborate, and it will take one to two years for widespread inoculation,” Zhong told a forum on September 18th, according to official newspaper Science and Technology Daily.

| China is expanding its vaccination programme beyond frontline health workers

© Thomas Peter/Reuters

 The push for a COVID-19 vaccine 

The world is in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic, and companies are racing to find a vaccine. Vaccines save millions of lives each year. Vaccines work by training and preparing the body’s natural defences --- the immune system--- to recognize and fight off the viruses and bacteria they target. If the body is exposed to those disease-causing germs later, the body is immediately ready to destroy them, preventing illness.  

Immunization currently prevents 2-3 million death every year from diseases like diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, influenza and measles. There are now vaccines to prevent more than 20 life-threatening diseases, and work is ongoing at unprecedented speed to also make COVID-19 a vaccine-preventable disease.     

Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker (Updated October 3, 2020)

| Image by Jonathan Corum, Sui-Lee Wee and Carl Zimmer (NY Times)

Vaccines typically require years of research and testing before reaching the clinic, but scientists are racing to produce a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine by next year. Researchers are testing 44 vaccines in clinical trials on humans, and at least 91 preclinical vaccines are under active investigation in animals.

Sources:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3102415/coronavirus-second-wave-over-winter-inevitable-china-infectious

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/covid-19-vaccines

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

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