Transmission Chain of Current COVID Outbreak
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From October 15th until the time of publishing, 9 cities in China have reported new COVID-19 cases. Fears have grown that chain of transmission may further extend after seven elderly people in a cross-provincial tour group tested positive for COVID-19. Relevant local governments have scrambled to track down their close contacts and test related personnel.
Transmission chain of current COVID-19 outbreak in China. Graphic: Zhao Jun/GT
Source likely ‘imported through ports in Inner Mongolia’
The virus that has triggered new outbreaks of COVID-19 linked to a tour group of seniors from Shanghai that have affected several regions of China likely stemmed from overseas, Chinese health experts said, as more than 20 positive cases linked to contacts of the group have been reported so far.
The group, which crisscrossed provincial regions in China's north and northwest, likely came into contact with the virus which may have arrived through port cities in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, although where exactly it came from and how it came into China is unknown, health experts said, noting the prevalent COVID-19 variants such as Delta now circulating globally could survive longer on products in cold weather, which may have triggered community transmission.
Beijing on Tuesday reported a locally transmitted COVID-19 case who returned to the capital from Northwest China's Gansu Province, another case linked to the tour group that had spread the virus to seven provincial regions and cities as of Tuesday, including port cities in Inner Mongolia and capital of Shaanxi Province.
The new case broke Beijing's record of no community transmitted cases for more than 70 days. The patient was a close contact of a confirmed case from Northwest China's Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, surnamed Ai, who in turn was a confirmed contact of the Shanghai tour group. The Beijing case was on the same train as Ai.
A couple from Shanghai who were tested in Xi'an, capital of Shaanxi on Saturday, were the first to test positive in this latest outbreak. The couple was part of the tour group along with five other seniors, and had traveled in Gansu Province, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. Later, the other five tourists also tested positive in Xi'an.
Extreme caution
Many places in China are enhancing anti-epidemic measures and accelerating the rollout of COVID-19 booster shots in face of increasing outbreak risk as winter sets in, bringing about a cold environment more suitable for virus survival and transmission.
But in general, it will be a stable winter for Chinese people with low probability of cluster outbreaks, experts said, while calling for extreme caution on personnel and items at ports and medical institutes.
The virus can survive for a longer time in a cold environment, which increases the danger of people contracting and getting infected. This was demonstrated in the previous year as both the domestic and overseas epidemic worsened in winter 2020, Wang explained.
Wang also warned that attention should not only be given to people who are often contact high-risk personnel, but also high-risk items such as imported goods, parcels and garbage from international airlines, given previous experiences.
Potential "twindemic" this winter
China's National Health Commission warns of a potential "twindemic" this winter and it stresses influenza prevention as flu activity in the southern provinces has increased since September with the flu season approaching and the remaining high risk of imported COVID-19 infections.
Autumn and winter are the two seasons with high incidence of respiratory infections such as influenza. The health commission released a notification on Friday to strengthen influenza prevention and control measures during the flu season which is combined with the risk of imported COVID-19 cases of new variants that will bring more uncertainties this winter.
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