春运返程在即！这个TED演讲告诉你，病菌是如何在飞机上传播的？（附视频&演讲稿）
大年初八，春节假期即将进入尾声，春运返程在即，但新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情依然还在持续。
据国家卫建委统计，截至1月31日24时，国家卫生健康委收到31个省（自治区、直辖市）和新疆生产建设兵团累计报告确诊病例11791例（江西省、陕西省、甘肃省各核减1例），现有重症病例1795例，累计死亡病例259例，累计治愈出院病例243例，共有疑似病例17988例。
提到返程，肯定有许多人们选择乘坐飞机出行，在这么严峻，而且传染率很高的疫情季节，搞懂飞机上病毒是如何传播无疑是预防被感染的第一步。
今天分享一个17岁的少年Raymond Wang利用流体动力学，他创建了飞机上空气流动的计算模型，并发现令人不安的事实。“如果有人打了个喷嚏， 周围空气会呈漩涡态反复打转， 然后才有机会从过滤器排出。”他分享了自己的获奖发明，一个能巧妙解决这个问题的小型设备。
Can I get a show of hands -- how many of you in this room have been on a plane in this past year? That's pretty good. Well, it turns out that you share that experience with more than three billion people every year. And when we put so many people in all these metal tubes that fly all over the world, sometimes, things like this can happen and you get a disease epidemic.
可不可以请大家举一下手—— 这里有多少人在过去一年中搭乘过飞机？看起来很多啊。那么，事实证明你每年会与 超过30亿人共享飞行的经历。当我们把这么多人放入所有这些 满世界飞行的金属管时， 有时会发生这样的事情—— 你会感染一种传染病。
I first actually got into this topic when I heard about the Ebola outbreak last year. And it turns out that, although Ebola spreads through these more range-limited, large-droplet routes, there's all these other sorts of diseases that can be spread in the airplane cabin. The worst part is, when we take a look at some of the numbers, it's pretty scary. So with H1N1, there was this guy that decided to go on the plane and in the matter of a single flight actually spread the disease to 17 other people. And then there was this other guy with SARS, who managed to go on a three-hour flight and spread the disease to 22 other people. That's not exactly my idea of a great superpower.
我最初开始这个课题， 是在去年听说了埃博拉疫情爆发的时候。事实表明， 尽管埃博拉病毒是在很有限的范围内， 以飞沫传染的方式进行传播的， 还有其它很多种疾病 也会在机舱中传播。最糟糕的是， 当我们看到一些数字时， 会感到很恐惧。携带有H1N1的这家伙 决定了要登上飞机， 就单个航班而言， 他可以把疾病传播给其他17个人。还有另一个家伙携带有“非典“病菌, 登上了一个三小时的航班， 并把疾病传播给了其他22个人。我原先并不知道这种传染性竟然这么强。
When we take a look at this, what we also find is that it's very difficult to pre-screen for these diseases. So when someone actually goes on a plane, they could be sick and they could actually be in this latency period in which they could actually have the disease but not exhibit any symptoms, and they could, in turn, spread the disease to many other people in the cabin.
看一下这张图，我们也会发现， 事先筛查出这些疾病是非常困难的。所以，当有人上了飞机， 他们可能是病人， 也可能处于疾病的潜伏期， 也就是说他们会得上这种病， 但是海没有表现出任何症状， 于是他们就可能把疾病传染给 机舱中的其他人。
How that actually works is that right now we've got air coming in from the top of the cabin and from the side of the cabin, as you see in blue. And then also, that air goes out through these very efficient filters that eliminate 99.97 percent of pathogens near the outlets. What happens right now, though, is that we have this mixing airflow pattern. So if someone were to actually sneeze, that air would get swirled around multiple times before it even has a chance to go out through the filter. So I thought: clearly, this is a pretty serious problem.
这到底是怎么传播的呢？事实上，空气由机舱的顶部和侧边进入， 就是你们看到的蓝色箭头的位置。然后，空气通过这些 高效的过滤器离开机舱， 出口附近99.97%的病菌都会被过滤掉。然而，目前的情况是， 空气是按这种混合气流的方式流动着。所以如果有人打了个喷嚏， 周围的空气就会呈漩涡态反复打转， 然后才有机会从过滤器排出。所以我觉得这明显是个严重的问题。
I didn't have the money to go out and buy a plane, so I decided to build a computer instead. It actually turns out that with computational fluid dynamics, what we're able to do is create these simulations that give us higher resolutions than actually physically going in and taking readings in the plane. And so how, essentially, this works is you would start out with these 2D drawings -- these are floating around in technical papers around the Internet. I take that and then I put it into this 3D-modeling software, really building that 3D model. And then I divide that model that I just built into these tiny pieces, essentially meshing it so that the computer can better understand it. And then I tell the computer where the air goes in and out of the cabin, throw in a bunch of physics and basically sit there and wait until the computer calculates the simulation.
我买不起飞机， 所以我决定弄台计算机试试看。事实表明，利用计算流体动力学， 我们就能够模拟这些情况， 相较于真正进入飞机获取数据， 这样其实更方便进行数据解析。我们的工作是从这些 2D图形开始的—— 网络上有很多关于这方面的技术论文。我把它们导入到3D模型软件中， 建立了那个3D模型。然后我把刚刚建好的模型分解成小块， 彻底打碎这个模型， 使得计算机能够更好地理解每组数据。然后我告诉计算机空气出入机舱的位置， 在机舱内放置一些物体， 然后基本就可以坐在一边 直到计算机模拟完成。
So what we get, actually, with the conventional cabin is this: you'll notice the middle person sneezing, and we go "Splat!" -- it goes right into people's faces. It's pretty disgusting. From the front, you'll notice those two passengers sitting next to the central passenger not exactly having a great time. And when we take a look at that from the side, you'll also notice those pathogens spreading across the length of the cabin.
若是用传统的机舱，我们得到的结果是， 中间的乘客打喷嚏时， 在“阿欠”一声后气流 就会喷向人们的脸部。实在有点恶心。从前面看，中间乘客身旁的 两位乘客， 肯定不会开心。从侧边观察一下， 你也会发现那些病菌 会在机舱内前后传播。
The first thing I thought was, "This is no good." So I actually conducted more than 32 different simulations and ultimately, I came up with this solution right here. This is what I call a -- patent pending -- Global Inlet Director. With this, we're able to reduce pathogen transmission by about 55 times, and increase fresh-air inhalation by about 190 percent.
我的第一反应是“这样可不好”。我实际上创建了 32个不同的情况的模拟， 并最终得到了这个解决方案。我称它为——专利审核中的—— 环流入口导向器。有了这个，我们可以把 病菌传播的可能性 降低55倍， 并可以增加190%可吸入的新鲜空气。
So how this actually works is we would install this piece of composite material into these existing spots that are already in the plane. So it's very cost-effective to install and we can do this directly overnight. All we have to do is put a couple of screws in there and you're good to go. And the results that we get are absolutely amazing. Instead of having those problematic swirling airflow patterns, we can create these walls of air that come down in-between the passengers to create personalized breathing zones.
那么在实际过程中如何使用呢？我们只需要把这块复合材料 安装到飞机上已经存在的这些位置。安装成本非常低， 只需要一个晚上就能全部安装好。所有的工作仅仅是要 上几颗螺丝，非常简单。我们得到的结果非常惊人。避开了那些有问题的漩涡气流模式， 我们能够在乘客中间， 建立起这些空气墙， 从而创造出私人的呼吸区域。
So you'll notice the middle passenger here is sneezing again, but this time, we're able to effectively push that down to the filters for elimination. And same thing from the side, you'll notice we're able to directly push those pathogens down. So if you take a look again now at the same scenario but with this innovation installed, you'll notice the middle passenger sneezes, and this time, we're pushing that straight down into the outlet before it gets a chance to infect any other people. So you'll notice the two passengers sitting next to the middle guy are breathing virtually no pathogens at all. Take a look at that from the side as well, you see a very efficient system.
这样你会发现当中间的乘客 再打喷嚏时， 我们就能够有效地迫使 带有病菌的空气向下流动， 直接经过滤器排出。从侧边再看一下， 可以看到我们能够直接让病菌向下流动。安装了这个新的设计， 现在再看一下同样的情形， 你会发现中间乘客打喷嚏时， 我们能够在其他人受到影响之前， 直接把病菌向下推送并排出机舱。可以看到中间乘客身边的两位乘客 安全不会吸入病菌。再从侧边看一下， 这是一个非常有效的系统。
And in short, with this system, we win. When we take a look at what this means, what we see is that this not only works if the middle passenger sneezes, but also if the window-seat passenger sneezes or if the aisle-seat passenger sneezes.
总而言之，有了这个系统，我们赢了。当我们再进一步看看它的效果， 可以看到这不仅在当中间位置的乘客 打喷嚏时有效， 也对窗边或者过道边的乘客 非常有效。
And so with this solution, what does this mean for the world? Well, when we take a look at this from the computer simulation into real life, we can see with this 3D model that I built over here, essentially using 3D printing, we can see those same airflow patterns coming down, right to the passengers. In the past, the SARS epidemic actually cost the world about 40 billion dollars. And in the future, a big disease outbreak could actually cost the world in excess of three trillion dollars. So before, it used to be that you had to take an airplane out of service for one to two months, spend tens of thousands of man hours and several million dollars to try to change something. But now, we're able to install something essentially overnight and see results right away.
那么，这个解决方案 对全世界意味着什么了？当我们把视角从计算机模拟 转换到现实生活时， 在利用3D打印 做好了这个3D模型后， 我们能够看到气流直接 对着乘客往下流动。在过去，“非典”足足花费了 全世界400亿美元。在将来， 一个大型疾病的爆发可能会 花费全世界 超过3万亿美元。以前，我们经常不得不让飞机 停飞一两个月， 花费大量人力以及巨资， 来试着解决一些问题。但现在我们只需花上一个晚上 安装一下这个东西， 效果就立竿见影了。
So it's really now a matter of taking this through to certification, flight testing, and going through all of these regulatory approvals processes. But it just really goes to show that sometimes the best solutions are the simplest solutions. And two years ago, even, this project would not have happened, just because the technology then wouldn't have supported it. But now with advanced computing and how developed our Internet is, it's really the golden era for innovation.
实际上，现在只需要 把这个结果拿去认证， 进行飞行测试， 再通过这些常规的 批准过程就可以了。事实表明，有时最好的解决方案 恰恰就是最简单的。然而就两年前， 这个项目甚至不可能实施， 只是因为那时的技术 还无法实现这种设计。但是有了先进的计算技术 和如此发达的网络， 我们现在真的处于创新的黄金时期。
And so the question I ask all of you today is: why wait? Together, we can build the future today.
所以今天我要问大家的问题是：还在等什么呢？一起努力，我们今天就能创造未来。
Thanks.
谢谢。