【访谈】罗思义：香港乱局，谁是幕后主使？谁从中获益?（中英文字幕）

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受访专家罗思义（John Ross）系前英国伦敦经济与商业政策署署长，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员，本文刊于8月8日CGTN。

Q1: In your opinion, what is the background of the protests in Hong Kong？

Q1: 你认为香港抗议的大背景是什么？ 

The background is the 150 years when Hong Kong was colonized by Britain. 

(抗议的)大背景是长达150年的英国殖民统治。 

This has created among a certain section of the population two things. 

恐怕这一历史成为了港独分子抗议的基础，并引发了两件事：

The first was big interference by Britain.

一是英国干涉中国内政。 

It's rather ridiculous at the present time that Britain criticizes the election system of the Hong Kong chief executive when, through the 150 years approximately that Britain ruled Hong Kong, it never allowed any elections at all.

我的意思是，英国批评香港特区行政长官选举制度是相当荒谬的，因为在英国统治的150年里，它根本不允许香港举行任何选举活动。 

The second is the existence of a situation whereby Britain always used to pursue a policy of divide and rule.

二是它成为了英国对香港分而治之的借口。 

It tried to create a big division between Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland. 

英国试图离间香港特区和中国大陆。 

They created a situation whereby the population was taught to look down on some people. And therefore the thing they were taught to look down on was the Chinese mainland.

他们故意制造一种紧张氛围，让香港的部分人群看不起中国大陆人。 

This is why you have the leadership of these currents in Hong Kong, people who want the so-called independence of Hong Kong. 

这引发了香港的阵阵示威暴行，这些活动的头目希望香港取得所谓的独立。

Although they put forward particular limited issues, the real goal is to try to split up China and China's not gonna accept it.

港独分子提出的诉求十分有限，其真正的目标是分裂中国，中国当然不会接受。 

Britain's sort of hypocritical interference is an element in the situation.英国的确在从中作梗，干涉中国内政。 

Q2: You mentioned British interference. Beyond public statements, what is the nature of the interference?

Q2: 你提到了英国干涉中国内政。撇开政府声明的内容不谈，这种干涉到底属于何种性质？ 

The claim that this movement is leaderless is completely nonsense. 

声称这场运动没有领导完全就是胡说八道。

The tactics used by demonstrators are highly organized. These people are taught how to deal with tear gas and riot police.

如果你看看活动组织(和)示威时使用的策略，就会发现这些行动都有高度组织性。这些人接受过专门培训，知道如何应对催泪弹，对付防暴警察。 

Somebody is teaching them to do this. 

有人在培训他们。  

If you find out who profits from the situation, normally you’re finding out who's causing it. 

想要知道谁是幕后主使，你只要想想谁最能从香港乱局中获益。

In this case, certainly a combination of the U.S. and Britain. Britain at the present time made very provocative statements. 

在这种局面下，美国和英国肯定会从中受益，近期英国还发表了非常具有挑衅性的声明。 

Q3: Given the special relationship between the U.S. and the UK, how would you characterize their response to the protests?

Q3: 鉴于美国和英国之间的特殊关系，你如何看待他们对抗议的反应？ 

I think there's a sort of division of labor going on here. 

我认为这两个国家似乎各有分工、相互配合。 

The U.S. is totally focused on the trade talks. 

美国完全专注于中美贸易谈判。 

I think they may see the situation (in) Hong Kong as a way to putting pressure on China in the trade talks.

我想他们可能会把香港局势视为在贸易谈判中向中国施压的一种方式。 

On the other hand, they know that some things are extremely explosive for China, for which territory integrity is the most important. 

另一方面，他们也知道有些事情是中国最为关切的，比如领土完整。 

President Donald Trump, after his election, took a phone call from Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen, and found out that unless he reaffirmed the one-China policy, he wasn't going to have any serious communication with China.

特朗普当选后，与台湾省领导人通过电话。他不久前才明白，除非他重申“一个中国”原则，否则中国不会与他进行开诚布公的对话。 

I think on the present situation, the U.S. doesn't want to get itself involved too much in the situation in Hong Kong. 

我认为就目前情况而言，美国不愿过多介入香港局势。  

But I also know that the British government in serious international matters can't act independently of the United States, or if it does, it carries it through fairly systematically.

同时我也明白，英国政府在处理重大国际事务时，多多少少都会看美国脸色行事。如果它不顾美国意见去采取行动，一定会事先考虑的非常周全。 

Former UK Prime Minister David Cameron, at the time of the "Occupy Central" protests in 2014, did actually keep out of the situation. 

在2014年的“占中”运动中，时任英国首相卡梅伦完全将自己置身事外。 

The reason for that was that at the time, China and Britain ties were in a certain golden period, and Britain wanted to attract Chinese investment. 

因为当时正处中英关系的黄金时期，他想吸引来自中国的投资。 

He wanted to calm relations with China. So he had a few words which were said, but you know that it was purely for form. 

他想缓和与中国的关系。所以当时他只是简单地评论了几句，纯粹是走个形式。 

Now, it seems, we are getting involved.

然而这次，英国是真的参与进来了。 

And at the same time, what we see with Brexit, the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson is becoming much closer to the U.S. Even his predecessor Theresa May was closer to the United States than was Cameron.

此外，从最近的英国退欧进程不难发现，新任首相约翰逊与美国走得更近了。甚至特蕾莎·梅也比卡梅伦更亲美。 

So I'm afraid I think it's more division of labor than any real difference.总的来说，英美两国并非独立行动，而是相互配合、分头行动。

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。