本文大概5600字，读完共需7分钟
作者何亚非系外交部前副部长、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员、全球治理研究中心主任，本文刊于11月15日中美聚焦网。
中国对当今世界的看法可以用习近平主席的话来概括，那就是“世界正在经历百年未有之大变局”。
对于中国的国际交往，我的结论简单明了：中国需要世界，世界同样需要中国。请注意，我说的“需要”，不应被理解成某些关系非有不可。
首先，中国已经成为世界第二大经济体，它的GDP达到了美国GDP的60%这一“红线”。在过去三四十年里，中国成为了全球供应链的重要组成部分，且随着地位的不断上升拥有了全球影响力。结果是，力量的平衡朝着有利于新兴国家和发展中国家的方向转变，而在全球治理中，中国的作用突出。很显然，在现有主导大国美国的眼里，这构成了对“美国世纪”或“美国治下的和平”，也就是70多年来美国领导的世界秩序的威胁。为此，尽管中国一再表示坚持和平发展，避免陷入所谓“修昔底德陷阱”的致命对抗，但美国为了遏制中国，为了与中国竞争，不惜重组其全球战略，与东方的对手发生地缘政治和地缘经济冲突。所以对中国来说，世界已经变得更加复杂和充满风险。简言之，这是中国与世界其他国家特别是美国关系最好的时期，也是最坏的时期。
其次，在全球尤其是美国、英国及其他发达国家出现的民粹主义和狭隘民族主义，导致出现了全球化与反全球化的拉锯战，中国对此忧心忡忡，因为中国的经济增长得益于它的改革开放政策，与上一轮全球化息息相关。中国当然希望全球化和全球治理体系能继续发挥作用，也许是以“全球化2.0”的形式。同时中国希望不断扩大的贫富差距，希望那种有利于资本而不利于劳动力的财富分配倾向能在世界范围内尽快得到妥善解决，减少其对社会凝聚力和社会和谐的不良影响。
第三，由于特朗普政府破坏基于规则的体系，退出联合国教科文组织、巴黎协议、中导条约、跨太平洋伙伴关系协定和伊朗核协议，甚至威胁放弃世贸组织，我们正在目睹以联合国为中心的全球治理体系及其机构的瓦解。如果世贸组织上诉机构法官的空缺在年底前仍未填补，法院将停止运作，我们将失去解决贸易争端的多边机制。
因此，中国面临着前所未有的两种抉择的挑战：要么坐视世界出现大的动荡，要么无论自愿或不自愿，站出来发挥领导作用，与志同道合国家合作，在现有体制的基础上实行某些关键性变革，开辟全球治理的新路径。
在这里我必须提一句，中国已经是130多个国家和地区的最大贸易伙伴，这是自然而然的结果。认为中国试图排挤美国的全球事务霸主地位，或取代美国成为世界领袖，那是误读或曲解，会促使美国把中国作为主要战略竞争对手重新评估，而不是像从前那样把中国当成存在一定竞争的合作伙伴。
第四，技术革命正在以惊人的速度进行，它将改变人类的生活方式和生产方式。几十年来，技术革命一直推动着经济增长和全球化，无疑它还将引领全球化进程，重塑全球供应链和生产链。中国正置身于这场革命之中，其研发投入已经占到GDP的2%，而且仍在增长。
在科技领域，中国有两个重点关心的问题：
一个是，中国在科技领域迎头赶上还有很长的路要走，而要想成为真正的大国，就必须尽快缩短与发达国家的差距。这说起来容易做起来难，需要大量艰苦工作、巨额投资和多年的努力。中国认为，实现科技现代化有助于更好地为世界和平与繁荣做更大的贡献。科技现代化也是中国计划到21世纪中叶实现的四个现代化目标之一。
另一个就是，其他大国对中国科技进步的不安反应，特别是美国。作为近一个世纪的霸主，美国认为中国对其长期以来所拥有的科技优势构成战略上的威胁。战略性科技竞争的思维方式支配着美国整个对华、特别是针对中国科技实力上升的战略与政策。美中两国进行战略性科技竞争不仅不明智，且会导致两国科技和经济发展“脱钩”。这是死路一条，会给全世界带来伤害。
为什么中国在国际交往中得出“中国需要世界，世界需要中国”的结论？
首先，中国的改革开放和取得的成功与全球化密切相关，同时也受益于与其他国家的良好关系，这其中既包括发展中国家，也包括发达国家，特别是美国。显然，如果没有良好的全球环境，中国就不会成为今日之中国。中国的进步不是在孤立中实现的，这是经过深入思考得出的结论。
中国现在是一体化且高度互联的世界经济的重要组成部分，过去它需要这个世界，现在和未来将更加如此。正是本着这种观念，习近平主席提出要与所有国家一起构建全球命运共同体。
其次，既然中国无法孤立地自我发展，那么如果环境不安全，它便无法实现自己的愿望。因此无论在本地区还是在全球，中国始终都是世界和平的促进者和捍卫者。中国以为，一个在政治和经济上更加互联互通的全球伙伴关系网，将成为集体安全的坚实基础，而这种集体安全对于我们大家都渴望的持久和平是至关重要的。本着要让自身及整个世界实现持久和平与经济繁荣的信念和决心，中国一再重申它的和平发展战略，并表示无意在本地区或全世界称霸。
这绝对不是宣传或公关噱头，而是中国过去40年参与全球化以及经历了百年“屈辱”之后汲取的经验教训，这也常常是众多学者专家研究中国的课题。对中国来说，拥有并维持一个安全的国际环境是最好不过的，可能的话，更好与美国保持一种稳定、平衡和可持续的关系。中国不想也不会发起对美国的战略竞争，相反，它将尽最大努力打造一种良性竞争、更多更广泛合作的互利双边关系。美国绝不应当把这看成是中方的软弱，中国时刻准备应对针对其主权、领土完整、国家安全或经济成就的任何挑战，这些是国家的核心利益。
第三，世界同样需要中国，这个结论并不是自我幻想，而是来自于中国过去70年的对外交往经验。中国面对过各式各样的情况，从全面对抗到全面合作，从被迫孤立到拥抱全球化，这些中国全都经历过。无论从哪方面衡量，中国现在都是国际社会的一个重要成员。中国是联合国安理会常任理事国，加入了500多个国际条约和协定。它也是世界上几乎所有政府间组织的成员。中国还是世界经济增长的强大引擎，过去十年对全球GDP增长的贡献超过30%。
图源：IMF
第四，中国对全球治理体系近乎本能和直觉的态度，以及它越来越愿意提供当今世界急需的“全球公共产品”——尤其在美国“退群”，正式抛弃联合国巴黎协定之际，这些都是深植于中国的文化，这种文化重视天人合一。
从这个角度说，“一带一路”倡议、构建人类命运共同体倡议、设立亚投行、认为一国安全只有在其他国家同样感到安全的时候才能实现，所有这些新建议和举措，都是为了中国，也是为了全世界。中国很早就意识到，“中国需要世界，世界同样需要中国”。随着中国经济的发展，它与世界融合的意识也越来越强。
第五，中国的对外投资和国内投资氛围正在朝同一个方向发展，都是旨在帮助中国实现可持续增长，并通过全球网络和互联互通的加强，借助溢出效应造福世界。
“一带一路”倡议就是很好的一个例子。基础设施是所有国家实现工业化和经济长期增长的关键，这是中国从过去70年特别是改革开放40年中得出的经验。发展中国家或欠发达国家要想赶上世界其他国家，并真正享受到全球化带来的好处，就必须弥补在基础设施方面的巨大差距。
从宏观角度看，中国坚定地认为，除非广大欠发达国家能够进入全球供应链和消费链（继而不断地向上攀升），否则世界经济很难进一步发展。而基础设施建设是第一步。中国钢铁、水泥和消费品的过剩产能也自然会以两种方式转移：在国内向欠发达的中国西部和西南部地区转移，在国外向需要和欢迎这类商品的国家转移。这对所有人来说都是双赢。
不幸的是，地缘政治的丑陋标签扭曲了人们的某些看法，中国被描绘得十分黑暗，而且具有威胁性，企图通过牺牲它的穷兄弟来获取经济和地缘政治优势。例如，债务工具就常被认为是中国“冷酷无情”对外直接投资的方式之一。事实上这与真相相去甚远。“一带一路”沿线所有项目都会在商业基础上评估，并使用适用的国际标准。
在这里，亚投行代表着发展性投融资的最佳实践。在决策过程中，如果有任何政治上的考虑，那么，项目融资可以采取商业贷款和外国援助相结合的方式，后者在某种程度上反映的是捐助国的总体外交政策，特别是对外援助政策。人们可以通过中国近代史清楚地看到，中国无意寻求自己的势力范围，也不会通过经济手段来建立地区霸权。这是习近平主席在多个国际场合一再重申的。而且，“一带一路”六年来的实践经验也证明了我的这一观点。
第六，中国经济正发生着巨大变化，其中一个变化就是更多依赖国内消费，这在GDP中所占的比重越来越大。2008年，中国的净出口占GDP的9%，2018年已经下降到1%。我相信，随着中国的进口持续增长（正在举行的第二届上海国际进口博览会就证明了这一点），至少在2019年和2020年，中国净出口占GDP的比重还会继续下降。麦肯锡咨询公司最近发表的一份报告就表示，中国对世界的依赖度（以其庞大的出口为参考）已经下降，而世界对中国经济增长和中国市场的依赖度却在上升。
China Needs the World and Vice VersaChina’s view of the world can be summed up succinctly by President Xi Jinping’s remark that “the world has been undergoing the most profound changes unseen in the last century.”
On China’s international engagements, my conclusion is pure and simple: China needs the world and the world also needs China. Please note carefully that I said “need,” which should not be taken to mean that some relationships are indispensable.Why has China come to view the world as a place full of challenges and opportunities on a scale unprecedented in the last hundred years or so?
1. China has grown to become the world’s second-largest economy, reaching the “red line” of 60 percent of the GDP of the United States and functioning as an integral part of global supply chain in the last three or four decades — with all the accompanying global influence that comes with that rising status. As a result, the balance of power has shifted in favor of emerging and developing countries, with China featuring prominently in global governance, which obviously was taken by the U.S., the incumbent dominant power, as a threat to the “American Century” or “Pax Americana,” the U.S.-led world order for more than 70 years.The resulting reordering of American global strategy toward containing and competing with China has set the U.S. on a geopolitical and geoeconomic collision course with its Eastern rival even though China has repeatedly pronounced its determination to persist in peaceful development and to avoid the so-called Thucydides trap of deadly confrontation. The world, therefore, has become more complicated and risk-laden for China. Simply put, this is both the best and worst time for China in its relations with the rest of the world — in particular with the U.S.2. The tug-of-war between globalization and anti-globalization driven by populism and narrow-minded nationalism the world over, especially in advanced economies like the U.S., the United Kingdom and others worries China a great deal, since its growth, which is underpinned by its policy of opening-up and reform, has been very much intertwined with the last round of globalization. China certainly hopes that globalization and the underlying global governance system will continue to function, maybe in the form of “globalization 2.0. And the growing gap between rich and poor, the lopsided distribution of wealth that favors capital versus labor, can be addressed properly and urgently in the world at large, thus reducing its poisonous effect on social cohesion and harmony.3. The global governance system and its institutions centered on the United Nations is disintegrating right before our eyes with the Trump administration attacking the rule-based system, withdrawing from UNESCO, the Paris Accord, INF, TPP and Iran nuclear agreement, and even going so far as to threaten abandonment of the World Trade Organization. If the WTO Appellate Court’s vacancy is not filled by the end of the year, the court will cease to function. We will have no multilateral mechanism available for any trade dispute settlement.China thus faces the unprecedented challenge of a bifurcated choice, either sitting on its hands and watching the world roller-coastering to wherever, or playing a leadership role, willingly or unwillingly, in concert with like-minded countries, to charter a new course for global governance based on the current system with some key modifications.In this connection, I would be remiss not to mention that China is already the largest trading partner with over 130 countries and regions. The latter seems to be the natural choice for China, but it will be misinterpreted or misunderstood as China tries to oust the U.S. from its hegemonic position in global affairs or to replace the U.S. as the world leader, which would dangerously reinforce the American strategic reassessment of China as being its major strategic competitor, rather than its erstwhile partner in cooperation intermingled with some competition.4. The tech revolution is running at breakneck speed and will change the way of life and production for mankind. It has been driving economic growth and globalization for decades and no doubt will continue to lead the course of globalization and reshape global supply and production chains. China is right in the middle of this revolution with R&D input accounting for 2 percent of its GDP and still growing.There are two key concerns for China in the tech area:One is that there is quite some distance to go before China catches up in the sci-tech field, and it is imperative that it shorten the distance with advanced economies soon if it is to be a genuine major power. This is more easily said than done. Lots of hard work, huge investments and years of effort are required. China believes that sci-tech modernization — one of the four modernizations it has set for itself to be realized by the mid-21st century — will put it in a better position to contribute more profoundly to world peace and prosperity.Another is the worrisome reactions to China’s tech advances from other major powers, especially the U.S., which, as the incumbent hegemonic power for almost a hundred years, views China as a strategic threat to the sci-tech superiority it has enjoyed for a long time.The mindset of strategic sci-tech competition has taken the reins in American strategy and policies toward China in general, and China’s sci-tech capability enhancement in particular. It is not only unwise for the U.S. and China to engage in sci-tech strategic competition, but it will lead the two countries to “decoupling” in sci-tech and economic development, with a dead-end-result that will hurt the whole world.Why has China concluded that “China needs the world and vice versa” when it comes to international engagements
1. China’s opening-up and reform and its ensuing success is closely intertwined with globalization and has been supported by fairly good relations with other countries, both developing and developed — especially with the U.S. It is clear that China would not be what it is today without a favorable global environment. It is a well-considered and well-thought-out conclusion that China’s progress cannot be achieved in isolation.China now is part and parcel of a well-integrated and highly interconnected world economy. It needed the world in the past and even more so today — and for the future. It is exactly in this spirit that President Xi proposed to build, together with all nations, a global community with a shared future and common destiny.2. Given that China cannot develop itself in isolation, it is also valid to suggest that it can’t deliver what it aspires in an insecure environment. China therefore has been a promoter and defender of world peace both regionally and globally. It believes that a more interconnected network of global partnerships both politically and economically will serve as a solid base for the collective security so essential to the lasting peace we all hope for. With its conviction and determination for long-term peace and economic prosperity, both for itself and the world at large, China has frequently reiterated its strategy of peaceful development and that it has no intention whatsoever to be a hegemon either in the region or the world.This is definitely not propaganda or a PR stunt. This is the lesson that China has learned over the last 40 years of involvement in globalization, as well as in the last hundred years of “humiliation,” which has so often been the subject of China study by numerous scholars and experts. The best course for China is to have and maintain a secure international environment, starting, if possible, with a steady, well-balanced and sustainable relationship with the U.S. China does not want and will not start a strategic rivalry with the U.S. Instead it will try its best to have a mutually beneficial bilateral relationship that combines healthy competition with more and broader cooperation. The U.S. should by no means take this as weakness on the part of China, which is ready to take up any challenge to its sovereignty, territorial integrity, national security or economic achievements, which form the core of its national interests.3. The conclusion that the world also needs China is not a self-induced fantasy. It comes from the country’s 70 years of international engagements. It has dealt with a wide range of conditions, from full confrontation to full cooperation, from imposed isolation to open-armed globalization. China has tasted it all. It is now by every measure an important member of the international community. It’s a permanent member of the UN Security Council and has joined more than 500 international treaties and agreements. It is also a member of almost all the world’s intergovernmental organizations. China also is a strong engine of world economic growth, contributing more than 30 percent to global GDP growth for the last 10 years.4. The almost instinctive and intuitive approach China has taken toward the global governance system and its increasing willingness to provide the much-needed “global commons” for today’s world — especially as the U.S.is “leaving the crowd” by formally starting the process of withdrawing from the UN Paris agreement — is strongly rooted in Chinese culture, which values the oneness of humankind and the universe.From this perspective, the Belt and Road Initiative, the proposal to form a community with a shared future; the setting up of the AIIB; the idea that a country’s security can’t be achieved unless others also feel safe and secure — all of these new proposals and initiatives are both for China and the world. The country realized long ago that “China needs the world and the world also needs China.” As China grows economically, the sense of world togetherness gains more traction.5. China’s external investments and domestic investment environment are moving in the same direction, which is designed on to help China achieve sustainable growth and to benefit the world with a spill-over effect through a global network and increased connectivity.The BRI serves as a good example. Infrastructure is key to industrialization and long-term economic growth for all countries, a lesson China has learned over the past seven decades, and especially in its 40 years of opening-up and reform. Infrastructure is where developing or less-developed countries have a huge gap to fill if they wish to catch up with the rest of the world and really enjoy the benefits of globalization.From a macro point of view, China believes firmly that it will be hard to develop the world economy further unless a large number of less-developed countries can move into (and then up) the global supply and consumption chains. Infrastructure building is the first step.Naturally China’s excess production capacity in steel, cement and consumer goods has to move in two ways — domestically moving toward less-developed regions in western and southwestern China, and abroad to countries that need and welcome such commodities. It is a win-win for everyone.Unfortunately, ugly geopolitical labels have twisted perceptions in some quarters to cast China as a dark and menacing figure trying to gain economic and geopolitical advantages at the expense of its poor brothers. Debt, for example, has often been singled out as part of China’s “cold-hearted” approach to direct foreign investment. In reality, that could not be further from the truth. Any project along the corridors of the BRI will be evaluated on a commercial basis, and with applicable international standards.Here, the AIIB represents the best practices of developmental investment and financing. If there is any political consideration involved in the decision-making process, the funding of a project could be done through a combination of commercial loans and foreign aid. The latter, to a certain extent, reflects the donor country’s foreign policy in general and foreign aid policy in particular. From the modern history of China, one can see with clarity that it has no intention of seeking its own sphere of influence. Neither would China through economic means try to establish regional hegemony, something reiterated by President Xi on numerous occasions internationally. Moreover, the reality of six years of experience with BRI implementation can also bear testimony to the point I am making here.6. China’s economy is undergoing tremendous changes, one of which is more reliance on domestic consumption, which is taking up an ever-increasing share of GDP. In 2008, net exports by China represented 9 percent of its GDP, and that number dropped to 1 percent in 2018. I am sure that it will continue to drop at least in 2019 and 2020, as China continues to import more — as demonstrated by the Second International Import Expo going on in Shanghai. The consultant firm Mackenzie issued a report recently saying that China’s dependence on the world — a reference to its huge volume of exports — has been reduced, while the world’s dependence on China’s growth and market is rising.中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。