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编者按：2020年，21世纪的第三个十年开始，这不是历史的终结，而是新历史的重新开始，新时代像Alpha一样重新拉开，“东方思想的崛起”也只是迈出了人类思想富足的第一步而已。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在《环球时报》英文版专栏“Wang Wen on Changing World”的第21篇专栏文章《东方思想的崛起》于1月14日刊出，原英文标题为《Eastern mind-set foretells global future》，现将中英文内容转发如下：
At the beginning of 2020, I have once again been invited by the Observer Research Foundation, a think tank based in India, to attend the Raisina Dialogue, the most influential forum in South Asia, held every year in New Delhi. After coming across this year's agenda, I am more impressed with the global vision of Indian elites.
2020年第一次出国，是再次受印度观察家研究基金会之邀，赴新德里参加南亚最有影响力的论坛“瑞辛纳对话”。翻完今年议程后，我对印度精英的全球视野更加印象深刻了。不得不说，印度人对世界变局的思考比中国人更多维、更宽广。
The theme of this years' Raisina Dialogue is quite postmodern - "21@20: Navigating the Alpha Century." What does it mean? There is no explanation in the agenda. But according to the theme of each panel discussion, I assume the organizers of the forum might think the year 2020 is the starting point of the 21st century and marks the end of the 20th century, and what's coming next will be like the first letter of the Greek alphabet - Alpha - which signals a new era.今年的瑞辛纳对话用了一个非常后现代的主题：21@20导航阿尔法世纪。这是什么意思？议程中没有解释，但根据后面每一个分论坛的主题，我的理解是，论坛设计者或许认为，2020年才是21世纪开始、20世纪结束的承接点，而接下来的时代像是希腊字母表里第一个字母Alpha那样重新拉开。It is a theme designed with oriental imagination. It wisely responds to the global logic that has been misled by Western mind-set for 30 years. In 1989, when the Cold War was about to end, Francis Fukuyama, a young US political scientist, published an essay "The End of History?" in which he believed "the state that emerges at the end of history is liberal insofar as it recognizes and protects through a system of law man's universal right to freedom, and democratic insofar as it exists only with the consent of the governed." 这个富有东方想像力的主题设计，很睿智地回应了被西方思想界误导了30年的全球思考逻辑。1989年，冷战结束时，年轻的哈佛大学政治学博士弗兰西斯•福山写了一篇20世纪末最有影响力的论文《历史的终结》，认为冷战结束后，“自由、民主”的理念已作为社会进步的常识而被世人接受，市场经济与民主政治正在成为世界历史发展的终点。
Thirty years later, it turns out that young scholars sometimes can be too optimistic. In 2012, I chatted with Fukuyama for two hours at a café in Stanford University, California. He admitted that the Iraq War and the financial crisis changed some of his opinions. He even acknowledged that the American system might not be the same as the democratic one he envisioned. In his later books, State-Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century, published in 2004, and The Origins of Political Order, written in 2011, Fukuyama's thoughts are deeper and more respectable than his earlier concepts.30年后，事实证明了年轻学者有时会犯过于乐观主义的毛病。2012年，我在旧金山市Palo Alto区的斯坦福大学咖啡厅与福山教授聊了两个小时，他坦承后来的伊拉克战争、金融危机使他改变了一些看法。他甚至承认，美国制度与他所想像的民主可能不是一回事。正如大家所知道，他最近十多年的著作《国家的构建》、《政治秩序的起源》等与他早年的想法相比，变得更加深入、更令人尊敬。
The changes in Fukuyama's ideas reflect the changes in human understanding of the evolution of world history. When a system, a country, or an individual is arrogant and egoistic, it leads to decline. Yet the unscrupulousness and arrogance of the US government has not ceased. From the war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, to the Arab Spring and the assassination of a high-ranking Iranian general, the US seems to have claimed victories time and again, but as a matter of fact, it has been jeopardizing the foundation of international mechanism, on which the US has thrived. It is also destroying the values and beliefs once admired by mankind.
福山教授思想的变迁，折射的是人类对世界历史演进的认识变化。当一种制度、一个国家或个人狂妄到唯我独尊时，退步便会显现。美国政府的狂妄与骄慢没有止步，从阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争、叙利亚内战，到所谓的“阿拉伯之春”，再到现在暗杀伊朗高级将领，看似一次次的胜绩，其实是在磨损着美国赖以生存的国际机制根基，也在摧毁着曾经让人类敬仰的价值与信念。
2020, the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century, is not the end of history, but the start of a new one. History sprouted from the international financial crisis, with the rise of emerging economies as its main characteristic, and with the political awakening of non-Western countries as a main force. Human beings are slowly looking for a new path and a new destination.
2020年，21世纪的第三个十年开始，这不是历史的终结，而是新历史的重新开始。这段新历史萌芽于国际金融危机，以新兴经济体的崛起为主要特征，以非西方国家的政治觉醒为主要力量，人类慢慢地在寻找着新的出路与归宿。
From the perspective of Chinese scholars like me, the new way out is definitely not provided by the US. Indians probably think so too. Over the past two years, themes like "The Waning West" and "Exclusive trade in the Trump age" have been observed in Raisina Dialogue's panel discussions. It makes people feel that Indians do not fully agree with US values. Then, what is China's perspective of the future?在像我这样的中国学者看来，这个出路肯定不是美国给的。印度人估计也是这么想。近两年来的瑞辛纳对话里用了“衰落的西方”、“特朗普时代的排外贸易”等主题设计分论坛，多少让人感受到印度人其实也不完全赞同美国的价值观。那么，未来到底在哪里呢？中国人的答案是什么？President Xi Jinping has pointed out multiple times that the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. This represents the thinking of the Chinese people. Everything is changing, politics, economy, society, country, technology, lifestyle, mind-set… and all changes seem so uncertain. The biggest certainty is the fact that everything is uncertain.
习近平主席曾在公开场合说过至少100次“前所未有之大变局”，代表着中国人的思考。现在，一切都在变化中：政治、经济、社会、民族、科技、生活方式、思维模式……所有的变化都显得那么不确定。最大的确定性就在于一切都是不确定的。
China and India's in-depth predictions of the future represent the rise of the mind-set of 40 percent of the world's population. It means human beings have begun to get rid of the logic of dichotomy, which has its origins in Western Christian philosophy, to predict, promote and shape the future. People no longer think about their future with simple distinction between black and white, good and evil, but with more dimensions and more complicated logic. In my opinion, this is another major civilized evolution since the West-led globalization.中国与印度对未来世界的深度预测，代表着拥有全球40%人口的思想的大崛起，意味着人类开始摆脱了源于西方基督教哲学的二分法逻辑，去预测、推动与塑造世界的新未来。不再是黑与白、邪恶与善良、美与恶的简单区分，而是用更多维、更复杂的逻辑去思考未来。在我看来，这是1500年以来西方领衔全球化后的又一次重大文明演化。Human civilization has developed for thousands of years. But we can only expect all human beings to enjoy prosperous and fulfilling lives after 2030.当然，我不认为，东西方世界的思想是一种你赢我输、你优我劣的关系，相反，两者可能存在着相互补充、相互促进的关系。要知道，人类文明史发展了5000年，在1980年代前后，发达世界才解决“不挨饿”的问题，全人类要全面解决温饱还得等到2030年以后。
Human beings are still on the way to realizing the prosperity of resources. It is thus too early to fully reach the prosperity of thoughts. The rise of oriental mind-set is only the first step on the way. 物资富足的问题才正在解决进程中，思想富足的问题要彻底解决还为时尚早。所谓“东方思想的崛起”也只是迈出了人类思想富足的第一步而已。
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。