【关注】何亚非：美国大选年对中国的挑战（中英双语）

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作者何亚非系外交部前副部长、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员、全球治理研究中心主任，本文刊于2月15日中美聚焦。

美国大选是美国政治非常重要的博弈场，也是观察美国内外政策走向的风向标。2020年是特朗普第一任期最后一年，不仅美国总统要选举，众议院全体议员和参议院1/3成员都要选举。美国国内早已风声鹤唳、暗流涌动，特朗普弹劾案无疾而终，共和党力挺特朗普连任，民主党候选人一波接一波，出现不少新面孔。然而，两党候选人的政策主张都明显偏激极端，虽然中国问题尚未成为大选焦点，但是大选对中美关系的影响和挑战不容小觑。

何亚非

一、从美国大选规律看，经济好坏依然是老百姓最关心的，这不仅涉及经济增长、股市涨落，更在于民众对收入不均、不平等、贫富差距扩大强烈不满，希望大选结果能给百姓带来实实在在的利益。

目前，世界经济不容乐观，周期性与非周期性因素叠加，贸易保护主义日盛，世界经济不确定性增大，下行压力持续加大。“震荡”很可能是2020年常态。

此前IMF对2019年世界GDP增速预测是3%，为2009年以来最低。WTO的新数据表明，2019年头六个月全球贸易增长仅1%，为2012年来最低。2020年贸易紧张局势有增无减，将出现负增长。专家预计2020年全球资产和股市泡沫破裂、经济衰退概率较大，果真如此，美国经济和股市很难独善其身。中国遭受新冠肺炎疫情也给中国以及世界经济带来新变数。

美国自2008年金融危机以来一直采取货币宽松和低利率政策，边际效应递减消失。目前已有超过30家央行竞相降息，世界经济进入“零利率”、“负利率”时代，金融风险不亚于2008年前。

大选年美国对华将继续推行“美国优先”、以邻为壑的经济政策，并把金融优势“武器化”，用经济金融制裁中国高科技企业，打压中国科技发展。两国虽然签署“第一阶段”贸易协定，能否顺利执行，如何进行下阶段谈判，还是未定之数。但美国在经济金融领域力图对华“得分”，给选民以美国“获利”的印象，是特朗普政府的既定政策，两党候选人都会予以支持。最近，美国商务部长甚至声称，中国新冠肺炎疫情将有利于美国制造业回归。这种极端利己主义的思维令人乍舌。

2020年中国金融开放迈开步伐，随着中国经济与世界经济相互依赖加深，美国等资本大举进入中国债市、股市、银行、保险、资管业务，加上“一带一路”等新型国际合作深入拓展，海外人民币资金池持续扩大，国际资金流动、汇率变化对中国金融的影响增大，这将考验中国金融业韧性和人民币国际化决心。

二、大选年美国以意识形态划线现象突出，“抹黑中国”无疑又是两党候选人争取选票的得力手段。

美国国务卿蓬佩奥称，中国共产党是美国的核心“威胁”，副总统彭斯等其他高官也有类似评论，充分暴露了美国极端势力对华浓厚的意识形态偏见，以及对中国制度优越性的“焦虑”和“惧怕”。中国发展及道路的成功再次证明美国“历史终结论”的破产。无论是在香港搞“颜色革命”，还是接二连三通过涉港、涉疆、涉藏议案法案，美国这些赤裸裸干涉中国内政、侵犯中国主权的行径都表明，它把中国锁定为“主要战略竞争对手”，带有强烈的“文明冲突”色彩。

美国大选政治受“身份政治”、民粹主义影响严重，两党候选人面对贫富差距和不平等持续扩大束手无策，既不能客观分析原因，又提不出好的解决办法，民众不满和怨愤长期累积，表现为与精英的社会矛盾更加尖锐，美国资本主义制度性、系统性危机浮现。制度性危机进一步撕裂社会架构，激化国内矛盾，使国内政治特别是大选政治极端化。同时，危机外溢效应凸显，政府竭力转嫁危机，寻找“替罪羊”和假想敌，对外政策的极端强硬面和军事冒险性增加，中国作为美国“主要战略竞争对手”很容易成为美国内各项矛盾的“替罪羊”，大选年尤其如此。

中国是近130个国家和地区的最大贸易伙伴，过去十几年每年贡献全球经济增量30%以上，是全球经济增长的重要引擎。中国需要世界，世界需要中国，已成为国际社会共识。而正是看到中国人民的制度自信不断加强，更加紧密地团结在中国共产党周围，齐心协力建设现代化美好中国，中国综合实力持续增强，美国才痛下决心进行对华高烈度战略竞争和博弈，不惜使两国陷入“修昔底德陷阱”。

三、大选年，美国在国际事务中的承受能力明显下降，常常对国家之间的矛盾和全球性挑战做出过激反应，从国际合作和国际组织“退群”与地缘政治冲突同步增强，致使大国关系更加紧张，全球治理更加无序。

近年来，国际战略稳定已经遭到严重削弱，欧洲、亚太、中东安全形势十分脆弱严峻，全球大国竞争突出。地区大国面临“力量真空”和“秩序混乱”，竞相争夺地区主导权，地区热点问题激化，局势更加混乱。

美俄围绕战略“挤压”与“反挤压”，在乌克兰、叙利亚、伊朗等问题上的矛盾加深。美国对伊朗实施更严厉制裁，涉及俄罗斯在伊朗和中东的利益。美国对欧俄合作的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目以及“土耳其流”项目实施“域外制裁”，任何参与管道建设的欧洲公司将遭受经济金融制裁，其在美资产将被冻结。美俄博弈虽然与美苏冷战性质截然不同，但是美国遏制俄罗斯恢复世界大国的力度不减当年，矛盾尖锐，不排除发生局部冲突的可能。

鉴于目前中美关系高度复杂敏感，竞争性突出，大选之年在攸关中国国家安全、主权利益的台海、南海等地区和问题上，美国对华战略压力加大，军事挑衅将更频繁、更直接，触碰中国的底线。全球性挑战和地区热点问题激化也将使中国对外政策包括对美外交更趋复杂，处理难度加大。

美国2019年中退出《中导条约》，并即恢复陆基中程导弹研发试验，宣布在欧洲和亚太重新部署此类导弹。美国还坚持要求中国参与新的导弹协议谈判，以期削弱对冲中国的部分非对称优势。与此同时，美国将退出《武器贸易条约》、美俄《开放天空条约》，高调声称永不批准《全面禁止核试验条约》，核武现代化、小型化步伐加快，企图逼迫中国进入大国核武竞赛，遏制中国发展势头。

中东地区、美国与伊朗数次走边缘，斩首伊朗军事领导人剑走偏锋，险些触发军事冲突，矛盾激化难以避免，下步走向将对地区局势产生决定性影响。围绕耶路撒冷地位，以及联合国“以土地换和平”原则受到美国将使馆迁往耶路撒冷等决定的冲击，巴以冲突再趋激烈。中国是中东石油的主要进口国，美国力图搞乱中东，逼升油价，造成石油市场动荡，中国首当其冲，国际政治经济压力增大。

大选年，美国两党候选人内顾倾向严重，民粹主义和保护主义盛行，将使现有国际秩序和全球治理体系更加“无序”，国际社会难以就应对气候变化、能源安全、网络安全、地缘政治冲突等全球性挑战形成共识，世界更不安宁，发生“黑天鹅、灰犀牛”事件的概率增大。

全球化发展趋势表明，全球生产链和世界消费市场的形成，商品生产和服务业的扁平化，技术革命的强大推动，都是全球化继续发展的重要支撑，全球化不会逆转。然而，全球化与反全球化博弈将持续升温，“治理赤字”的扩大已经使以规则为基础的治理体系四分五裂，重新制定国际规则，包括是否摒弃WTO，将成为大国竞争的焦点。美国大选年，全球治理将面临更大考验，中美在气候变化、WTO改革、全球核不扩散体系维护、处理不断升温的地区热点问题等诸多方面都将面临一系列合作还是分道扬镳的艰难抉择。

总之，美国大选年在美国政治上是特殊年份，两国关系的不确定性增大，关系更难处理，需要我们保持战略定力，从长计议，既坚持原则，又冷静观察，不急于对一些事情下结论。

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图源：中新网

Challenges for China in U.S. Election Year

General elections are an important arena for wrangling in American politics, and a weather vane for observing the policy orientation of the U.S. This year, the last full year of Trump's first term, there will be not only a presidential election, but a congressional election in which the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot.With the abortive impeachment effort, Republicans offer strong support for Trump's bid for re-election, even as there have been plenty of new faces among Democratic candidates.The policy proposals of both parties' candidates have been conspicuously radical. Though China has yet to become a focus in the upcoming campaign, the influences and challenges for China-U.S. relations should not be underestimated.

First, judging from past experience, what the general public is most concerned about remains the economy, which involves economic growth and the state of the stock market, but arguably has more to do with strong public dissatisfaction with income disparities, inequality and widening income gaps, not to mention the perennial hope for election outcomes that bring practical benefits.

The present state of the world economy allows for little optimism. Cyclical and anti-cyclical factors have joined forces to mar global growth prospects. Trade protectionism is rising, uncertainties are increasing and downward pressures press more heavily. Oscillation could become the new normal in 2020.

The International Monetary Fun has projected global GDP growth for 2020 at 3 percent, the lowest since 2009. According to the World Trade Organization, global trade in the first six months of last year grew 1 percent, the lowest since 2012. Trade tensions have only increased since the beginning of this year, and negative growth is inevitable. Experts predict that in 2020 the probability of bubbles in global assets, as well as stock markets going bust. So the probability of economic recession is high. Should that be the case, the U.S. economy and stock market cannot escape adversity. To make matters worse, the novel coronavirus outbreak is adding new variables to the Chinese and global economies.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. has maintained monetary easing and low-interest policies, and the marginal effects of such policies have steadily dwindled. More than 30 central banks have lowered interest rates, and the world economy has entered an era of zero, even negative, interest rates, brewing financial risk no less than before 2008.

In this general election year, the U.S. will continue to stick to the beggar-thy-neighbor “America first” policy with respect to China, and it will likely weaponize its financial advantages to suppress Chinese scientific and technological progress via economic and financial sanctions against Chinese high-tech firms. Though the two governments have signed a phase one trade agreement, what implementation looks like and how they would approach the sensitive next stage of negotiations remain unknown. Trying to score against China in the economic and financial sectors and leave voters the impression that the U.S. is “winning” is standard procedure for the Trump administration, and candidates of both parties will support it. The U.S. commerce secretary has just claimed the epidemic in China will facilitate the return of American manufacturers back home. Such extremely selfish thinking is astounding.

This year, China will make bolder strides in financial opening-up, with its economic interdependence with the rest of the world deepening. It will see a massive influx of capital from the U.S. and others in Chinese state bonds and stock markets, as well as in banking, insurance, asset management services and the extension of new international cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative. The overseas pool of funds in renminbi will continue to expand. The impacts of international capital flow and interest rates changes on Chinese finance will grow to test the Chinese financial sector as well as the determination for internationalizing the renminbi.

Second, given that ideological mudslinging is standard practice in U.S. general elections, China-bashing will undoubtedly be used as a tool by the candidates of both parties to woo voters.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called the Communist Party of China a core “threat” to his country. Vice President Mike Pence and other ranking officials have made similar remarks, fully revealing the deep-rooted ideological prejudices against China by radicals in the U.S. and their fear of the advantages of the Chinese system.China's progress and success on its chosen path has again demonstrated the collapse of the U.S. theory of the “end of history.” Naked U.S. attempts to interfere in Chinese domestic affairs and violate its sovereignty — such as the U.S.-directed color revolution in Hong Kong and successive legislative acts related to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet — all indicate the U.S. objective to label China as a “main strategic competitor” and carry heavy overtones of a clash of civilizations.

The politics of U.S. general elections is seriously vulnerable to identity politics and populism. Helpless in the face of wealth gaps and expanding inequality, neither party's candidates ever come up with objective analyses, explanations or solutions.The institutional crises of U.S. capitalism is on the horizon. It will further tear apart social structures, sharpen domestic contradictions and render domestic politics (particularly general election politics) even more radical. Meanwhile, the crises will have spillover effects, as the government tries everything possible to create crises, scapegoats and imagined enemies. Foreign policies will become extremely forceful, and military adventurism will continue its rise. As a “main strategic competitor” of the U.S., China may easily become an election-year scapegoat for various domestic troubles in the U.S.

China is the largest trading partner of nearly 130 countries and regions. It has contributed more than 30 percent of global annual growth for more than a decade and is an important engine of global economic growth. That China needs the world and the world needs China has become the international community's consensus. It is only after seeing the Chinese people's growing confidence in their system and national strength — uniting around the CPC to build a modern, beautiful China — that the U.S. has made up its mind to engage in high-intensity strategic competition and gaming, even though it may sink both countries in the so-called Thucydides trap.

Third, in a general election year, the U.S. presence in international affairs drops conspicuously. It often overreacts to state-to-state issues and global challenges, withdraws from international cooperation and organizations. At the same time, its geopolitical impulses strengthen, and tensions escalate in relations with major countries, creating disorder in global governance.

International strategic stability has been weakened seriously in recent years. Security conditions in Europe, the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are very fragile and harsh; major-power competition continues to be prominent worldwide; regional powers face power vacuums and disorder; competition for regional dominance remains complex and fierce; and regional hotspots have become even more dangerous. Conditions are becoming increasingly chaotic.

U.S.-Russia contradictions are deepening, as seen in their wrangling over Ukraine, Syria and Iran. The harsher sanctions against Iran involve Russian interests in Iran and the Middle East. The U.S. is also imposing extra-territorial sanctions on Nord Stream 2, the natural gas pipeline featuring cooperation between Europe and Russia, as well as the TurkStream natural gas pipeline project. Any European companies that participate in these projects will be subject to economic and financial sanctions, and their assets in the U.S. will be frozen.

Although U.S.-Russia wrangling is dramatically different in nature from what it was during the Cold War, the U.S. attempt to prevent Russia from coming back as a major power is equally tough. Given the ferocity of their competition, regional conflicts may be inevitable.Since China-U.S. relations today are highly complex and sensitive, as they involve prominent competition over Taiwan and the South China Sea, both of which concern Chinese national security and sovereignty. So U.S. strategic pressure on China will increase and military provocations will become more frequent and direct, touching China's bottom lines. Global challenges and flare-ups in regional hotspots will also complicate Chinese foreign policy, especially thos involving the U.S., and make them even more difficult to handle.

The U.S. withdrew from the INF treaty in mid-2019 and immediately restarted research and development, as well as tests of surface-based intermediate-range missiles. It declared it woule re-deploy such missiles in Asia and Europe, and has also insisted that China participate in negotiations for a new missile treaty in order to weaken and offset some of China's asymmetric advantages. Meanwhile, the U.S. will withdraw from the Arms Trade Treaty and the U.S.-Russia Outer Space Treaty, and it openly says it will never approve the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. It is accelerating its pace of modernizing and miniaturizing nuclear weapons as it attempts to press China into a nuclear arms race and hence contain China's development.

In the Middle East, by killing a key Iranian military leader the U.S. nearly triggered a military conflict with the Islamic Republic. Bilateral contradictions will inevitably intensify. How that situation evolves will make a decisive impact on regional conditions. Israel-Palestine contradictions surrounding the status of Jerusalem and the “land for peace” proposal have suffered a heavy blow from the U.S. decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem and is intensifying once again.China is a major importer of Middle East oil, and as the U.S. strives to disturb the region and create ups and downs in the oil market, China will be exposed to greater economic and political pressures.

Since the political candidates of both parties in the U.S. elections are becoming more seriously inward-looking, and as populism and protectionism gain popularity, the current international order and global governance regime will become even more disordered, making it more difficult for the international community to reach consensus on such global challenges as climate change, energy security, cybersecurity and geopolitical conflicts. The world will be even less peaceful, and the probability of black swan and grey rhino incidents will rise dramatically.

The trend of globalization comes with the formation of global production chains. A worldwide consumer market, flattens the commodity production and service industries, and a strong push from the tech revolution all provide important support for continuing globalization. Globalization will not be reversed.However, the wrangling between globalists and anti-globalists will continue to escalate. Enlarging “governance deficits” have torn apart the rules-based governance regime, remaking international rules, especially those surrounding the role of the World Trade Organization, and will be a focus of major power competition. In this year of U.S. general elections, global governance will face more severe tests on such topics as climate change, WTO reform, preservation of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime and the handling of various regional hotspots. China and the U.S. will face some difficult choices over whether to cooperate or go their own way.

To sum up, the U.S. general election this year will be a special one in American politics. Bilateral ties will see greater uncertainty, and relations will be even more difficult to handle. All of this suggests China needs to maintain strategic calm, think from a long-term perspective, adhere to principles, observe developments with a cool mind and avoid jumping to rash conclusions about certain matters as they suddenly crop up.

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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