人类须有最低的底线思维变局（中英双语）

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编者按：环球时报英文版4月21日刊发“变局”专栏第34篇，作者中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文认为，这场疫情的冲击仍未见底，每一个人都应该有尽可能低的底线思维。

本文英文版在Global Times的版面截图

温斯顿•邱吉尔先生有句名言：你能看到多远的过去，就能看到多远的未来。新冠肺炎疫情一次次击穿人们此前的预设，原本以为只是新的一场SARS，后来又有预测可能夏天到了，疫情就能结束。现在已4月下旬，全球已近300万感染者，近20万人死亡，已有观点认为，疫情蔓延可能还只是在早期，扇动全球疫情飓风的那只蝴蝶的翅膀还没有完全展开。

人类显然已对未来充满着焦虑与恐惧，不知什么时候是疫情的终点。人类的茫然感，主要是源于漠视、轻视传染病作为人类头号敌人的变量。此时，最好的办法是静下心来，读一读历史书。

 其实，早在世界最古老的国家发源地古代苏美尔，就已经有人传人的传染病史证。传染病的伤害，首先是人口数量的削减。公元前3000年，在美索不达米亚平原，闪米特人出乎意料地快速地取代苏美尔人，最有可能的历史推测就是疾病造成的苏美尔大量人口死亡。诚如我此前专栏所说，传染病伴随着五千年国家兴衰史的始终。

 对当下仍是全球综合实力最强的美国而言，决策者们最好多读一读像修昔底德《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》、吉本《罗马帝国衰亡史》之类的历史著作，看看当年波斯帝国、强大的雅典帝国、亚历山大帝国与罗马帝国，是怎样在瘟疫面前变得弱不禁风。遇上大瘟疫，很短时间内，诸多古代帝国出现了社会混乱、饥馑、流浪者集聚、生产遭破产，由强变弱，甚至帝国的大厦一夜崩塌。可见，面对传染病这个敌人，越强大的帝国，越需要保持谦逊、防御，而不是狂妄、无知。

 对当下暂时取得阶段性防疫胜利的中国而言，精英们最好能读一读约翰•巴里《大流感：最致命瘟疫的史诗》。在1918年开始的那场人类社会与自然力第一次大对决之后，人们决定发展医疗技术和现代理念去直面自然的陌生力量。此后，美国医学界领袖们开始倡导革新，决心将美国从世界落后的医学国家提升为最先进的强国。中国人应汲取百年前的美国崛起营养，不必骄傲自满，更不必盲目放松，而是在取得领先于世界的防疫经验之后，继续积攒防疫常态化、有效复工复产的国家治理经验，获取更多可持续发展、真正解决民众疾苦的动能与力量。

 对每一位希冀洞悉未来的普通人而言，不妨读一读14世纪有关黑死病历史著作。那是人类文明史上最黑暗的时刻。欧洲约有1/3的人口死于疫情。在东方，蒙古人统治下的中国，战争与瘟疫的双重无情蹂躏下，人口从1.23亿减少到了6000万。但东西方的应对差异导致完全不同的发展前景。在中国，人们仍重复着封建王朝的更替。在欧洲，人们则勇敢地与过去割裂，开始反思自己的价值与权益，批判麻痹的宗教意识，最终唤醒了文艺复兴，创造了后来领衔于世界的西方文明。

 这场疫情的冲击仍未见底，每一个人都应该有尽可能低的底线思维。要知道，5000年文明史后的今天，人类仍然未彻底地打开传染病的生态龛。人类已经生活在这个星球最不可琢磨的生态动荡中，人与微生物、人与大自然的相处关系该如何破解，该如何重塑，呼唤着新的思想革命。

 几周来，基辛格、约瑟夫•奈、托马斯•弗里德曼、沃尔夫等几乎世界上最领衔的思想者们都在讲，2020年注定因新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延而作为“分水岭之年”记入史册。但到底是哪种类型的分水岭？像2008年国际金融危机那样的“经济周期分水岭”，或是像1991年冷战结束那样的“大国格局分水岭”，或是1945年二战结束那样的“世界秩序分水岭”，或干脆像1519年麦哲伦环行地球那样的“文明更替分水岭”？

 答案不只是在新冠肺炎疫情的未来态势中，也在每一个敢于思考的人手里。

以下为英文版

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Reading the past can help us see the future

Former British prime minister Winston Churchill once said: "The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see." The COVID-19 pandemic has repeatedly broken people's previous assumptions. At first people thought it was just a new SARS, then it was predicted to likely come to an end when summer arrives.

It's now already late April and over 2.4 million people have been infected and nearly 170,000 people have died worldwide. Now some people believe the pandemic may only be in its early stages, and the wings of the butterfly that spurred this global hurricane have not yet fully expanded.

People are clearly full of anxiety and fearful of the future. We do not know when the pandemic will end. 

This situation has arisen due to our indifference and contempt for infectious diseases, which are the number one enemy of human health. The best way to cope is to calm down and look for answers in history books.

Evidence shows that the ancient Sumer, one of the first civilizations in the world, suffered infectious diseases that were transmitted from person to person causing a reduction in the population. Around 3,000 BC, on the Mesopotamian plains, the Semites unexpectedly replaced the Sumerians. A reasonable assumption is that infectious disease led to mass deaths of Sumerians. As I said in my previous column, infectious diseases have caused countries to rise and fall over the last 5,000 years.

For the US, which is still the world's most powerful country in terms of overall strength, policy makers had better read History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides and The History of The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon. They would learn how the Persian Empire, Athenian Empire, Alexander Empire and Roman Empire grew weaken in the face of a plague. A short time after encountering a plague, many ancient empires experienced social chaos, famine, homelessness, bankruptcy, and even imminent collapse. When coping with an infectious disease, the stronger the empire the more modest it needs to be. Arrogance and ignorance have proven fatal.

China has successfully curtailed the worst of the epidemic, but to take a lesson from The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, by US historian John M. Barry, still can be helpful. 

After the first worldwide confrontation between humanity and nature in 1918, scientists developed medical technology and modern concepts to confront the unfamiliar force of nature. Since then, US medical experts have been determined to elevate the country from the world's medical backward to the most advanced. 

Chinese people should learn from the rise of the US. We should not be arrogant or blindly relax. Instead, after gaining world-leading experience in epidemic prevention, we should continue to accumulate experience, so as to gain more power for sustainable development and solving people's difficulties.

People who wants to know the future, should read the history of the Black Death in the 14th century. That was the darkest moment in the history of human civilization. About a third of the population in Europe died from the plague. In the East, the population of China during the Yuan Dynasty (1279-1368) suffered a sharp decline due to war and plague.

The different ways the East and the West dealt with the plague led to completely different development prospects. In China, people were still living under feudal dynasties. 

But in Europe, people bravely separated from the past and started to reflect on their values and rights. They criticized the paralyzing religious consciousness and finally awakened during the Renaissance, creating the Western civilization that later led the world.

The impact of this COVID-19 pandemic is far from over. Everyone should have the lowest possible expectations.Today, after more than 5,000 years of civilization, humans still have not completely understood infectious diseases. Human are living in the most unpredictable ecologically turbulent era this planet has ever faced. We need a revolution in our thinking about how humans reshape their relationship with microorganisms and nature.

The world's leading thinkers including Henry Kissinger, Joseph Nye, and Thomas Friedman have said that the COVID-19 pandemic will alter the world order. But in which way? Will the year 2020 be a watershed in economic cycles like the 2008 financial crisis? A watershed like the great power structure change after the end of the Cold War in 1991? A watershed like the one in world order at the end of WWII in 1945? Or even a watershed for civilizations brought by Ferdinand Magellan's voyage in 1519?

The answers to those questions will not only be found in our post-COVID-19 future, they are already in the hands of everyone who dares to think.

The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.

《强国长征路：百国调研归来看中华复兴与世界未来》（王文 著）中共中央党校出版社（请点击购买）

《数字中国：区块链、智能革命与国家治理的未来》（王文 刘玉书 著） 中信出版社（请点击购买）

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