【专栏】“十四五”规划，志在引领全球的设计（双语）

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编者按：中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版11月3日刊发第57篇“变局”专栏，文章中文版刊于11月2日《中国银行保险报》，并被“学习强国”转载。文章以亲历出发，阐述“十四五”规划是志在引领全球的设计。本期人大重阳君为您推荐专栏的中英文版。

本文英文版在 Global Times 的版面截图

近一年来，笔者有幸受聘成为两个部委与一个西部省份的 “十四五规划”咨询专家，深刻体会到作为全球大国的中国“五年规划”编制的难度与复杂性，更切身感受到“十四五规划”所具备的全面性、持续性、实操性以及这一轮“五年规划”特别强调注重的全球视野。

“五年规划”不是简单的文字撰文，更不只是几个撰稿人就能完成的长篇演讲稿。它全称是“中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展五年规划纲要”，是指导国家重大发展与建设进程的长期计划，为国民经济、社会发展未来远景确立目标和方向的中国五年一度最重要政策执行纲领。

1953年中国开始制定第一个“五年计划”，2006年“十一五”正式更名为“规划”。过去近70年，每一次五年规划都全力汇聚全国、全党与全国各族人民的智慧。回顾每一个版本的五年规划，会很容易地从中发现中国经济发展的规律、路径、设计、经验的印迹。

以笔者的亲历为例，早在2019年底，中央就已召开研究部署“十四五年规划”编制专题会议。此后，相关部委也落实召集内部研讨会，邀请一些专家点评具体领域的“十三五规划”执行情况、面临问题以及未来建议。类似的会议往往不只一次，而是每次召开完后，就个别具体难点、疑点、痛点继续把脉问诊，有的还会特别委托专家赴某省、某企业具体调研。会议每次至少是司局长主持、全程聆听，有时则是副部长级别的官员到场听完全场，并现场互动、回应一些分歧点。

在新冠疫情期间，这些互动与会议从未间断过，或在线召开，严格保密；或到场召开，全程戴着口罩。笔者5月中旬便受委托到京外调研，撰写相关调研报告，相关部委会非常重视这些调研成果。个别重要的点，还会追加一些详细、长篇内容。据笔者所知，有相当一部分学者有类似经历。“十四五”规划编制更是首次在网上征集意见，在许多客户端与网站平台上设立规划建言专栏，邀请普遍民众建言献策，再汇总整理后上报相关决策层。

事实上，不只是部委，中央决策层更是重视“十四五规划”的编制。习近平总书记就在北京、长沙、合肥等多地密集地召开各个领域的座谈会，如7月21日的企业家座谈会、7月28日的党外人士座谈会、8月20日的扎实推进长三角一体化发展座谈会、8月24日的经济社会领域专家座谈会、9月11日的科学家座谈会、9月17日的基层代表座谈会等。

结合笔者在全球治理领域的研究经验与国际比较，不难发现“十四五规划”所体现的鲜明中国特色。

一是全面性。“十四五规划”与过去每次五年规划一样，都汇集全力，各部委密切配合，邀请各界人士深入调查研究，群策群力，前后须花一年左右的时间制定，尽可能地体现全国民众、各个产业、区域、机构利益与诉求的最大公约数。当下中国，东西部区域发展、城乡发展、贫富者之间的发展不平衡的矛盾仍很突出，要求“十四五规划”的制定更加精细，尽可能充分考虑与揉合所有民众的利益交集。与美国或西方其他国家诸如“四年战略计划”、“总统施政纲要”完全不同。欧美选举政治容易产生愈演愈烈的利益集团的固化与分化，一党支持的政策往往就是另一党反对的，诚如“历史终结论”提出者、美国著名日裔政治学家弗兰西斯·福山感叹道：“‘否决政治’几近让美国瘫痪”。

二是持续性。“十四五规划”承前启后，是在中国全面建成小康社会之后，开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的重大设计，延续着第一个百年奋斗目标之后的发展任务，承接着第二个百年奋斗目标进军的重要使命。在编制中，必须考虑国内发展与全球秩序剧烈调整背景下的可持续发展问题。比如，全球经济放缓、国际不确定性加剧，“十四五规划”就必须考虑全球化有可能逆转、国际分工发生重大调整的逻辑，寻找关键产业链的区域协同与新的全球布局。再比如，在检验“十三五”规划完成进度时，会发现生态、扶贫、消费结构等领域的明显改善，但也需要看到如营商环境、科技创新仍有待加速提升的内生压力。过往检验与未来设计，都需要考虑延承度，这与西方国家“一届政府一组政策”的惯例完全不同。事实也证明，西方国家的政治体制出现了严重“内卷化”状况，即无休止地循环重复，导致停滞不前或无法转化更高的发展状态。

三是实操性。“十四五规划”编制既要考虑预期完成的可能性，更要顾及上一轮“五年规划”的完成进度；既要考虑当下面临着重大战略机遇，更要防范在复杂国内外环境下的潜藏风险。“十四五规划”需要有明晰的战略与富有执行力的方案，每一个重大项目都需要有组织架构设计与人才团队做支撑，在目标设定与路径规划时需要有数据与设计的工具基础，还要有流程的考量。它不是像西方一些国家那样“是的，我们能”、“让国家再伟大”之类的夸夸其谈，也不是空有对国民许诺的空头支票，而是扎扎实实、一步一个脚印的前行。

相比于过去的“五年规划”，“十四五规划”还有前所未有的“全球性”考量。未来五年，中国在继此前十年相继成为世界最大制造业国家、世界最大货物贸易国家之后，跃升成为最大的商品消费国家、对外投资国家，甚至还有可能成为世界最大的经济体。面临着世界所经历的百年变局，中国必须学会与日趋复杂的国际博弈相共存，深刻认识到未来五年极有可能是矛盾与风险多发期、共振期，同时也要意识到中国已从过去的“跟跑者”、“搭便车者”升级为了“领跑者”、“被搭车者”的重大转变，“十四五规划”还要有着引领经济全球化的设计考量。对此，中国需要把握世界经济与政治的微妙走向，还要降低各类运营与增长的风险，更要准确克服本身的瓶颈问题，找到差距，趋利避害，奋勇前进。

 这肯定将是又一个不容易的五年。但只要把握规律，保持定力，增强风险与机遇意识，发扬斗争精神，善于在“危”中育新“机”，相信再过五年，中国又是一番全新的发展景象。

本文中文版在《中国银行保险报》的版面截图

以下为英文版

The 14th Five-Year Plan stresses global vision

By Wang Wen

In the past year, I have been honored to be employed as a consultant of the 14th Five-Year Plan by two ministries and a western province. I have deeply felt that it is difficult and complex for China, a global power, to formulate its five-year plan, and that the 14th Five-Year Plan is comprehensive, consistent and practical. The new plan stresses global vision.

The five-year plan is definitely not text writing, nor is it a long speech completed by several writers. It is a long-term plan to guide the country's major development and construction process. The five-year plan is China's most important policy program, which sets goals and directions for the national economic and social development.

Over the past 70 years, every five-year plan has collected the wisdom of the country, the Party and the people of all ethnic groups in China. It is easy to figure out the laws, paths, designs and experiences of China's economic development when we look back at the evolution of the five-year plans.

As early as the end of 2019, the central government held a special conference on the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Since then, relevant ministries have held internal seminars, inviting experts to comment on the implementation and problems of the 13th Five-Year Plan as well as offer their suggestions in specific areas. Such seminars are quite common. After each meeting, specific difficulties, problems and key issues would be studied.

Such interactions and meetings were never interrupted, even during the COVID-19 epidemic. Sometimes they were held confidentially online; sometimes they were held offline, with participants wearing masks. I was entrusted by relevant ministries in mid-May to conduct research outside Beijing and finish a research report, and they paid high attention on my research result. As far as I know, quite a number of scholars have similar experience to me. Public opinion was also collected on the internet when the 14th Five-Year Plan was formulated. Many apps and websites set up columns to call for the general public to offer suggestions. Their opinions were then summarized and reported to decision-making levels.

In fact, not only relevant ministries, the central decision-makers also have attached great importance to the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan. President Xi Jinping has held frequent symposiums on various fields in Beijing, Changsha and Hefei and so on.

Based on my research experience in the field of global governance, it's not difficult to conclude the distinctive Chinese characteristics of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

First, comprehensiveness. Like the previous five-year plans, the 14th Five-Year Plan draws all efforts and close cooperation among relevant ministries and departments. People from all walks of life were invited to conduct in-depth investigation and study. The process takes about a whole year. The plan takes into account the interests and demands of the whole country, various industries, regions and institutions. 

At present, the disparity between the western and eastern regions, the rich and the poor, cities and countryside is still wide, which demands the 14th Five-Year Plan to be more elaborate and fully consider the interests of all people. This is completely different from the four-year strategic plan or the president's policy speeches in the US and other Western countries. Electoral politics in Europe and the US tend to result in the increasingly fierce solidification and polarization of interest groups. The policies supported by one party are often opposed by the other party. Francis Fukuyama, US political scientist, said "vetocracy" leads the government to become paralyzed.  

Consistency is the second characteristics. The 14th Five-Year Plan serves as a link between past and future, continuing the development tasks of the first centenary goal and carrying on the important mission of the second centenary goal. It is a design to start a new journey of fully building a modern socialist country after China completes the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. 

When formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan, we must consider the sustainable development against the background of domestic development and drastic adjustment of global order. Currently, the global economy is slowing down and the international uncertainty is intensifying. Globalization is likely to be reversed and the international division of labor has undergone major adjustments. Therefore, the 14th Five-Year Plan must consider these facts and seek regional synergy of key industrial chains and new global layout. 

When we examine the 13th Five-Year Plan, we will find significant advancement in ecology, poverty alleviation, consumption structure and other areas, but we cannot ignore the endogenous pressures that the business environment and scientific and technological innovation still need to be improved. Consistency must be taken into account when reviewing the past and designing for the future, which is different from the practice of "one government, one set of policies" in Western countries. It has been proven that Western political systems have seen serious involution - the endless cycle of repetition leads to stagnation or an inability to move to a higher state of development.

Practicality is the third characteristics. The formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan should take into account both feasibility and the progress of the previous plan, both strategic opportunities and potential risks in the complex domestic and international environment. The 14th Five-Year Plan requires a blueprint with clear strategy and strong execution. Every major project needs a well-organized structure and the support of a talent team. Unlike empty slogans such as "yes, we can" or "make our country great again" in some Western countries, the 14th Five-Year Plan is not an empty promise.

Compared to previous five-year plans, the 14th one is unprecedentedly global. After becoming the world's largest manufacturing country and the world's largest trading country in the previous decade, China is expected to be the largest consumer of goods, the largest country of foreign investment and even the largest economy in the world. The world today is marked by changes unseen in a century. China must learn to coexist with the increasingly complex international competition, and realize that the next five years are likely to be a period of frequent contradictions and risks. 

At the same time, as China is no longer a follower but a front-runner, the 14th Five-Year Plan should consider how China can lead the global economy. In this regard, China needs to grasp the delicate trends of the world economy and politics, reduce the risks of various operations and growth. More importantly, China should accurately overcome its own bottlenecks, identify gaps and forge ahead while seeking profits and avoiding harms.

The following five years will not be easy. However, as long as we grasp the law, enhance the awareness of risks and opportunities, carry forward the spirit of struggle and be good at cultivating opportunities in crises, China will witness a completely new scene of development in the following five years.

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. ）

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

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