斯洛文尼亚前总统：疫情后续影响刚开始显现！是时候改变世界了（双语）

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编者按：1月30日，由“一带一路”智库合作联盟指导，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院和外文出版社联合主办，中国人民大学全球治理研究中心承办的“大变局下的中国与世界”国际研讨会暨图尔克新书《转型的世界：对国际体系、中国及全球发展的思考》云发布会在京举办。新书作者、斯洛文尼亚前总统、世界领袖联盟主席、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员达尼洛·图尔克（Danilo Türk）进行了主旨演讲，实录英文删减版刊于2月1日《环球时报英文版》，以下为演讲实录中英文全文。

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尊敬的中国人民大学刘伟校长，尊敬的中联部当代世界研究中心主任岳阳花女士，外文出版社总编辑胡开敏先生，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文先生，各位来宾，各位前总理，女士们先生们，

 我非常高兴和荣幸，能够在本次研讨会上发布我的中文版新书《转型的世界：对国际体系、中国及全球发展的思考》。

作为本书作者，此次发布会非常特别，因为它为读者提供了一个机会，能够直接与作者分享他们对于阅读这本书的感受和评论。我想感谢所有出席此次研讨会的嘉宾。我还要特别感谢我的几位朋友，正因为你们的大力支持，我的书才得以成功出版。请允许我说一下他们的名字：

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文先生，助理院长杨清清女士，外文出版社副总编辑于瑛女士，责任编辑熊冰頔女士。

我的书包含了过去十多年我的一些思考。我挑选了其中的一部分，并组织起来，目的就是给大家介绍我对国际体系中一些关键问题的看法，同时也要尽可能以连贯的、有条理的方式将它们呈现出来。

本书分为三大部分：国际体系、中国和全球发展。

第一部分论述了过去几十年间国际体系的变化，当时世界已经脱离了冷战结束后不久的短暂单极时期。一个新的多极世界随即出现。我们这个时代的多极化不同于过去的多极化体系。并不局限于权力的多极化，这是任何多极化的基本特征。世界正在经历不同发展模式和现代化模式的共同演化和竞争。但这场竞争不一定是暴力的。到目前为止，世界整体还是和平的。世界的发展可以，并且也确实应该以不同发展模式之间的相互尊重为基础，并可以以和平和富有成效的方式进一步发展。

这张世界全景图的核心要素就是中国的崛起。过去几十年，中国的崛起是和平的，是对全球进步的重大贡献。中国消除了极端贫困，为全球经济增长和联合国千年发展目标的实现做出了贡献。重要的是，全球战略平衡基本得到维持。因此，总体而言，中国的崛起一直是，并将继续是一个积极的全球现象。中国在这一进程中发生了转变，成为了经济、贸易和技术方面的大国。“一带一路”倡议为世界各国发展合作伙伴关系提供了新机遇。与此同时，全球出现了新的优先事项，如果想要防止全球变暖引起的地球灾难，全世界就必须团结起来。

因此，当今世界面临的主要挑战在于如何管理全球发展。中国的作用将至关重要。如果没有中国的积极参与，就很难制定出一个有效的遏制全球变暖的全球策略。反过来，这一策略又需要一个有效的多边机构系统和对现有体系的改革。联合国系统的政治和财政能力必须得以加强，以发挥其主导作用。世界贸易组织必须进行改革，以便更好地管理全球贸易流动。

达尼洛·图尔克（Danilo Türk）

女士们、先生们，这些就是我们今天发布这本书的主要内容。

我知道，世界各地的学者和政策制定者也在细细考虑本书中所讨论的问题。这种全球性的讨论仍将继续，我的书也试图对此做出一点贡献。因此，请允许我借此机会提出四个问题，这些问题需要各位专家学者和决策者的进一步研究。

问题1：以一个正确的历史视角来看待当前的世界转型；

问题2：战争与和平的基本问题；

问题3：对法治根本意义的认识；

问题4：对创新的迫切需求。

首先，从历史的视角谈几点我的看法。

中国的崛起及其对全球经济和政治发展的影响令许多人感到惊讶。在过去的几十年里，中国实现了崛起并成为了世界公认的“世界工厂”。相比之下，人们对中国快速的技术发展、技术竞争力以及金融影响力的关注却少得多。一些评论家至今仍难以认识到，中国不再是世界上的“规则接受者”，而是日益成为“规则制定者”之一。这是中国在世界的权重和重要性呈指数级别增长的自然结果。这就需要我们关注历史，更好地理解历史。

在我的书中，我提到了归还过去几个世纪从中国非法抢夺的艺术品的重要性。归还这些古董艺术品具有重要的象征意义。承认过去发生的不公正现象并加以纠正是十分必要的。在这个新时代中，合作必须建立在互相尊重和平等互利的基础上。殖民统治时代早已结束，一个合作与竞争的新时代已然开始。那些被蔑称为“全球边缘国家”或“南方国家”的地区，他们的角色已经发生了变化，它们的作用将越来越大。亚洲的崛起，特别是中国的崛起，是这种变化最清晰的表现。

重要的是要理解历史的长流，从而准确评估当前世界转型的本质和全球南方阵营（发展中国家）日益增长的重要性。对于拥有五千年文明发展历史的中国来说，这一点并不难理解。在欧洲，在整个西方社会，我们必须利用历史学家的工作，例如法国历史学家费尔南·布罗代尔（Fernand Braudel），他教会了我们长时段理论（histoire de la longue durée）的方法，通过对长期历史阶段所存在的大量历史模式进行分析从而得出结论。

殖民时期和刚结束的后殖民时期的失衡不会持续。今天，无论是治国之术还是国际关系的管理，都需要在现存的和新生的历史驱动力之间找到适当的平衡，以便使所有人的未来更加美好。

第二，战争与和平的基本问题。

维护和平是我们这个时代明智的决策和治国方略的基本要求。在撰写这本书的时候，国际讨论主要集中在作为我们这个时代崛起大国的中国与作为现存老牌大国的美国之间的关系上。崛起大国和现存大国之间的竞争，是会导致和平演化形成共存，还是必然以冲突和战争告终？这个问题也被描述为避免“修昔底德陷阱”的挑战。“修昔底德陷阱”是由美国政治学家格雷厄姆·艾里森（Graham Allison）提出的。

值得注意的是，格雷厄姆·艾里森本人特别强调了“避开修昔底德陷阱”的道德义务。事实上，决策者确实应该“避开修昔底德陷阱”。这是一个强大的道德根基，需要明确的政治选择。战争是可以避免的。我们的选择决定了是否发动战争。我们需要尽一切努力防止选择战争。这就要求我们对和平处理各大国之间的关系作出明确且长期的承诺，并建立一整套预防性措施。这些措施必须使人们能够准确地了解有关政治家们的意图和能力，解读关键决策者之间复杂成熟的交流，以及构建起一套健全的行为准则，能够在事件处理不当时，使人们能够防止大规模武装冲突的事件发生。这就是为什么目前制定南海航行和其他活动行为准则的努力如此重要。规则很重要，遵守仔细拟订和自由订立的规则是和平与发展的基本要求。

第三，法治的重要性。

法治的重要性在西方和中国都有悠久的历史。在欧洲，两千多年前形成的罗马法是不断完善法治、适应现代需求的基础。在中国，哲学家韩非子在罗马法在欧洲初具雏形的同时期，大致形成了法律的基本概念。

当然，我们必须谨慎地汲取历史教训，正确了解包括法律概念在内的不同现象出现时的历史背景。但同样重要的是，我们必须理解根据我们当今时代的需求来应用这些法律准则，并在需要时制定新的法则和规范。今天，我们必须要看到法治对每一个社会、乃至对整个国际社会和国家间关系管理的重要性。

如今，法治概念已成为管理中国与其全球合作伙伴关系的重要基础。就在几周前，中国和欧盟刚达成了中欧全面投资协定谈判。该协议为今后双方合作迈上新台阶提供了良好的法律基础。

此外，法治概念是国家间一系列相互交流的基础。其中一些互动是交易性的，例如刚才提到的中欧投资协定。还有一些其他互动是概念性的，例如中国和欧洲及其他国家已经批准的国际人权条约，现在已经在各自领土范围内得到了执行。这些条约及其执行有助于加强国家的发展，扩大人民的福祉以及增强国家间的信任和信心。

最后，我想谈谈创新的必要性以及创新在政治和法律上的重要性。

我们这个时代的特点是技术的快速发展，比如通信、人工智能、神经科学等领域的技术。这些创新的变革性效应已经反映在经济上，也需要在政策和法律上进行创新。

正在推进的“一带一路”倡议就是政策创新的典范，对世界具有积极的潜力。在“一带一路”执行过程中我们已经吸取了重要的教训，包括认识到，构成“一带一路”倡议的项目是由需求驱动的、环境可持续的和文化敏感的。但还有更多创新的空间。“一带一路”倡议的核心理念是互联互通，适用于不同领域。目前，于近日宣布的“健康丝绸之路”和“绿色丝绸之路”需要进一步的阐述和创新的方法来实现。

在国际贸易领域，必须提出创新的解决方案，并在世界贸易组织内进行谈判。必须以创新的方式解决诸如国家补贴和与贸易有关的知识产权等常见问题。此外，必须重新审视《贸易和投资协定》中的“社会条款”的问题，并找到创新的解决方案，以便更好地保护工人和更广泛的人民福祉。

最后，作为总结，我想说：这本书的发布时间正值人类应对几个世纪以来最严重的全球卫生危机之时。疫情对经济和社会的后续影响才刚刚开始显现。世界人民在克服过去积压已久的各种问题的过程中又遭遇了如此严重的困难。因此，这是世界各国携手合作、推动国际合作迈上新台阶的时代了。换句话说，是时候改变世界了。

谢谢大家。

（翻译：杨清清，刘睿）

以下为发言英文版

实录英文删减版在GT的版面截图

Mr. Liu Wei, President of the Renmin University of China,

Mme Yue Yanghua, representing the International Department of the CPC

Mr. Hu Kaimin, Editor-in-Chief of the Foreign  Languages Press

Mr. Wang Wen, Executive Dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies

Distinguished guests, former Prime Ministers,

Ladies and gentlmen,

It is a great pleasure and privilege to address you at this symposium, launching the Chinese translation of my book “A World Transformed: Reflections on the International System, China and Global Development.”

For an author, the book launch is very special – in particular because it provides an opportunity for the readers to share their first comments and questions with the author directly. I am grateful to all of you who came to participate at this symposium. My particular gratitude goes to my friends who made the publication of this book possible:

 – Mr. Wang Wen, Executive Dean, and Mme Yang Qingqing, Deputy Executive Dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies,

-as well as to Mme Yu Ying, deputy editor-in-chief of the Foreign Languages Press, and to Mme Xiong Bingdi,  editor at the first international publishing editorial department of the Foreign Languages Press.

My book consists of a number of reflections developed in the period of the past decade. I have selected and organised them with an aim to present the picture of my thinking on the key issues of the international system - and to present them in a structured manner, as coherently as possible. 

They are organised in three parts: The international system, China and Global Development.

The first part deals with the changes in the international system in the past decades when the world has moved away form a short unipolar period of the immediate post - Cold War era. A new multipolar world has arisen in that period.  The multipolarity of our era is different from the multipolar systems of the past. It is not limited to the multipolarity of power, a basic feature of any multipolarity. The world is experiencing the co-evolution and competition of different models of development and of modernity. This competition does not have to be violent. So far it has been mainly peaceful. It could, and, indeed, should be based on mutual respect among different models of development and can be developed further in a peaceful and productive manner.

The rise of China is a central element in this picture. The rise of China has been peaceful and has represented a major contribution to global progress in the past decades. It has eliminated extreme poverty in China and has contributed to global growth and to the realization of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. And, importantly, the global strategic balance has been largely maintained. So, overall, the rise of China has been and continues to be a positive global phenomenon. China was transformed in this process and has become a major power in terms of economy, trade and technology. The Belt and Road Initiative offers new opportunities for partnership with the world. At the same time, new priorities have emerged. The world has to come together if it wants to prevent a planetary disaster caused by global warming.

The key challenges today are therefore in the way the world will manage global development. The role of China will be critically important. It is impossible to imagine an effective global strategy to curb global warming without an active participation of China. Such a strategy will, in turn, require an effective system of multilateral institutions and reforms of the existing ones. The United Nations system has to be strengthened and empowered – politically and financially – to play a leading role. The World Trade Organization has to be reformed so as to manage global trade flows better.

These, ladies and gentlemen, are the main lines of narrative in the book we are launching today.

I understand, with humility, that academics and policy makers in every part of the world are attentively considering the issues discussed in this book. This global discussion, to which my book attempts to give a small contribution, will continue. So, let me use this opportunity to propose four questions that require further study, both in the academic world and among policy - makers.

1.  A proper historical perspective of the current transformations;

2. The basic question of war and peace;

3. The understanding of the fundamental importance of the rule of law;

4. The vital need for innovation.

First, a few remarks on the historical perspective.

The rise of China and the consequent effects on the global economic and political development has surprised many. In the past decades China has emerged and has become accepted as “the factory of the world”. Much less attention has been paid to its rapid technological development, its competitiveness and its financial clout. Some commentators still have a difficulty to recognise that China is no longer only a “rule-taker” in the world but is increasingly becoming one of the “rule-makers”, a natural consequence of the exponential growth of its weight and importance. This calls for attention to history and a better understanding of it.

In my book I mention the importance of the restitution of objects of art that were taken illegally from China in the past centuries. Restitution of these antique objects of art is of great symbolic importance. It is a necessary aspect of recognition of past injustices that have to be remedied and of a new era in which cooperation must be based on mutual respect, equality and mutual advantage. The era of colonial domination is long over, and a new era of cooperation and competition has already begun. The role of the part of the world that is sometimes condescendingly described as the “global periphery” or “global South” has changed. Its role will continue to grow. The rise of Asia, and China in particular, is the clearest expression of this change.

It is important to understand the long flow of history in order to accurately assess the nature of the current transformation of the world and the growing importance of the global South.  For China, with the five millennia of development of its civilization ,it is not difficult to understand that. In Europe, and in the West more generally,  we have to take advantage of the work of our historians  - such as the French historian Fernand Braudel, who taught us  about the long-term historical time (histoire de la longue durée), an approach that draws conclusions from historical patterns through analysis of vast time periods.

Imbalances from  the colonial and immediate post colonial periods will not last. Today, both the art of statecraft  and the art of management of international relations require finding the right balance among existing and emerging historical drivers, so that the future will be better for all.

This brings me to my second question, to the the basic question of war and peace.

Preservation of peace is the basic requirement of wise policy-making and of the statecraft of our era.  At the time of writing of the essays that make up my book, much of the international discussion focused on the relationships between China as the rising power of our era and the United States of America as the leading established power. Can the competition between a rising and an established power lead to peaceful co-evolution and co-existence or does it necessarily end in conflict and war? This question was described as the challenge of avoiding the “Thucydides trap” a term coined by the American political scientist Graham Allison.

Remarkably, Graham Allison himself makes a strong emphasis on the moral obligation to “steer away from the Thucydides trap”. Indeed, decision makers would be well advised to “steer away from the Thucydides trap”. This is a strong moral base requiring clear political choices. Wars are never inevitable. Wars start as a matter of choice. Every effort needs to be made to prevent the choice of war. This requires a clear and long term commitment to peaceful management of relations among the main powers and a whole range of preventive instruments to be put in place. These instruments have to enable an accurate understanding of intentions and capabilities of the relevant political players, a mature and sophisticated communication among the key decision makers and a sound code of conduct that enables prevention of incidents that could, if mishandled or unaddressed, lead to a large scale armed conflict. For example:  This is why the current efforts to develop a code of conduct for the navigation and other activities in the South China Sea are so important. Rules matter and observance of rules – carefully prepared and freely entered into - is a basic requirement of peace and development.

Therefore, my third point relates to the importance of the rule of law.

Both in the West and in China we have a long history of learning the importance of the rule of law. In Europe, the concepts of Roman law, developed more than two millennia ago represent the continued basis for improvement of the rule of law and its adaptation to the modern needs. In China, the philosopher Han Fei developed the fundamental concepts of law roughly at the same time when Roman law started to gain shape in Europe.

Naturally, we must be careful to learn the lessons of history with a proper understanding of the historical context in which different phenomena, including the legal concepts, have emerged. But equally important, we have to understand the need to apply them in accordance with the needs of our, modern era and to develop new legal principles and norms when needed. Today, we cannot fail to see the importance of the rule of law for each society, for the international community as a whole and for the management of relations among states.

Today, the notion of the rule of law represents an essential basis for management of relations between China and its partners in all regions of the world.  Just a few weeks ago, China and the European Union have concluded a Comprehensive Agreement on Investments. This agreement provides a good legal basis for a new level of their cooperation in the future.

Moreover, the notion of the rule of law is fundamental to a whole range of interactions among states. Some of these interactions are mainly transactional – such as, for example, the mentioned agreement on investment. Other interactions among states are conceptual – such as, for example, the international treaties on human rights that China and European and other states have ratified and are now a matter of implementation in their respective territories. These treaties and their implementation contribute to development and well-being of people as well as to trust and confidence among states.

Finally, a few words of the need to innovate and on the importance of innovation in politics and in law.

Our era has been characterised by rapid development of technology such as those in the fields of communications, artificial intelligence neuroscience and others. The transformative effects of these innovations have been reflected in the economy and require innovations in policy and law as well.

The ongoing Belt and Road Initiative is a good example of innovation in policy with a positive potential for the world. Important lessons have already been learned in its implementation. They include the realisation that the projects constituting the BRI are demand - driven, environmentally sustainable and culturally sensitive. But there is space for additional innovation. The core idea of the Belt and Road Initiative is connectivity - and connectivity is applicable in different domains. At present, the “health silk road” and the “green silk road” – both announced in general terms in recent past - require further elaboration and innovative approaches to their realisation.

In the field of international trade innovative solutions will have to be proposed and negotiated within the World Trade Organisation. They will have to address such familiar topics as state subsidies and trade related intellectual property rights in innovative ways.  And, last but not least, the problems of the “social clause” in trade and investment agreement will have to be revisited and innovative solutions found in order to better protect workers and the well being of people more generally.

Let me conclude.

This book is being launched at the time of the greatest global health crisis in centuries. The economic and social consequences of the health crisis are only starting to be felt. The world is experiencing serious difficulties in the efforts to overcome the accumulated problems. This is a time for the world to join forces and move international cooperation to new levels. In other words, this is the time for a world transformed.

I thank you for your attention.

《转型的世界：对国际体系、中国及全球发展的思考》 外文出版社（请点击图片购买）

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