编者按:近期,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文表示,2021年是世界低碳经济竞争的元年,中国需要从四方面提前布局。本文中文版刊发于4月12日《中国银行保险报》,原标题为《全球低碳经济战,中国须布局》;英文精简版刊发于4月13日《环球时报英文版》,为第77篇“变局”专栏。以下为文章的中英文版。
本文中英文版在《中国银行保险报》及 Global Times 的版面截图
美国总统拜登已邀请40位国家和国际组织领导人于2021年4月下旬召开全球气候峰会,使全球低碳经济竞争逐渐进入白热化阶段,堪称一场新型“全球绿色低碳经济战争”。中国须对此深入研究,提前布局,以免陷入被动。
随着气候变化问题的尖锐化,气候治理已成各国提升全球影响力、彰显国际领导力的新杠杆。目前,包括中国在内的110个国家作出到21世纪中叶实现碳中和的重大承诺,以期控制全球温度的上升。这些重大承诺体现了各国难得的共识,但承诺如何实现、靠什么实现、以怎样的规则去实现、谁来当领导者牵头实现、如何注资实现,都尚未确定。
对此,笔者曾提出,2021年可谓是中国碳中和元年,也是世界低碳经济竞争的元年,对于国际格局转变和大国博弈的影响相当明显。
从全球话语角度看,一场重塑低碳经济规则的国际竞争已开始。各国为实现碳中和的目标,纷纷进入到应对气候变化和发展低碳经济的快车道,但对新兴绿色低碳产业的行业认定、包括减排在内的各类低碳标准制定、包括碳交易在内的各款绿色规则约定、包括绿色金融在内的各种市场准入门槛等,都面临着新一轮的国际博弈和谈判进程。谁能在标准谈判上占据重要先机,谁就能掌握全球低碳新时代的大国话语权。
从国际经贸角度看,一场重组绿色经济贸易格局的重大转变已出现。碳中和倒逼各国加速经济转型,清洁能源的使用与发展面临重大机遇,传统化石能源则面临或改造或弃用的风险,商品原材料生产、加工、运输的价值链也随之发生位移,以绿色产业为重心的国际新经贸结构将逐渐成为未来支撑世界经济的主流。碳中和之路上的战略合作、利益博弈、贸易竞争将成为新大国竞争的主战场。
从技术创新角度看,一场围绕新兴绿色产业的研发竞赛已开足马力。作为未来的必争之地,欧美日等传统发达国家都已加大对绿色技术的研发投入,将其升格为与其他高新技术产业占据同等重要的地位,成为低碳经济发展与竞争的重要推动力,并为后续的技术授权转让、绿色产业升级等方面提供坚实基础与竞争优势。新兴经济体若不跟进,有可能失去这一轮以绿色升级为主要特征的新产业革命。
从资金流向角度看,一场受绿色行业带动的国际投融资转向已发生。未来国际资本将更青睐具备潜力与产能的绿色新产业,各国的绿色产业优惠政策也将成为吸引外国优质投资者的新条件。围绕环境信息披露、绿色股权融资配比、绿色供应链、碳金融市场、新能源技术、低碳法律配套、资源估值等为主题的新投融资规则,将升格为投资、证券、保险等金融市场的热门话题。
可以想象,带领美国重回《巴黎协定》的拜登政府大力推行“绿色新政”,注定不会放弃在诸上领域与中国的“激烈竞争”,试图彰显尚处于全球领导者地位的美国实力。4月全球气候峰会只是一个新起点,更多的是在国际话语、经贸规则、资金流向与技术创新等领域的对华压制。中国绿色事业近年来飞速发展,但总体上看,仍是多由政府引导,市场化程度较低,绿色产品和绿色技术市场规模相对较小,企业参与度还不够普及,特别是中小微企业对于绿色产业的投入并不够积极。一方面,这与中国作为发展中国家仍然存在的绿色技术相对滞后、绿色融资途径单一、绿色金融工具不够丰富、绿色资金缺口较大、中小微企业融资难等方面有关;另一方面,也与中国社会长期以来将气候变化、低碳发展视为后现代主义的产物,甚至只是发达国家责任的理念局限有关。著名经济学家刘世锦近期曾提出“绿色发展账户”的说法,颇有创意。绿色发展账户旨在从区域经济发展的指标上扭转过往单一的GDP宏观指标,在微观上也改变企业经营理念中“重利润、重产量”的桎梏。无论从政府到企业,甚至到个人,生态资本服务价值、碳排放和污染物排放指标都应该成为新的评价指标,将资源环境项目进行资产化的重新配置,并把绿色资产纳入央行资产负债表和国家资产负债表中,推动其可交易性。事实上,笔者所在智库中国人民大学重阳金融研究院也在联合相关机构研发以碳中和为目标的“绿色智慧城市监测管理平台”,希冀于从社会层面上推动新共识,这也正是3月中央财经委会第九次会议强调“实现碳达峰、碳中和是一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变革”之本意。
只有真正从社会观念上进行革新,碳达峰和碳中和目标才能进一步牵引国民产业经济的全面升级,从微观层面将原本落后、高污染、高能耗产业和企业全面向提高生产效率、降低资源消耗、停止环境污染为导向进行转型升级;从宏观层面则真正提升中国崛起不再重走近现代“大国崛起史就是一部分工业污染史”的老路,推动中国未来高质量发展的美好前景,体现在新一轮大国竞争进程的领衔实力。
具体来说,在这场新型的全球低碳经济战争中,中国至少能做四方面的提前布局:第一,在全球气候治理与国际碳中和进程中,中国既要表达自身的减排决心,也要对外多讲中国低碳发展的巨大付出。中国工业化进程还未实现,仍担当“世界工厂”的角色,从2030年碳达峰到2060年碳中和的过渡期只有30年,远远低于发达国家60-70年的时间,减排难度相当严峻,不得不以部分牺牲经济增长为代价。这是中国负责任的全球大国担当,更是对人类应对气候变化的贡献。
第二,在新一轮环境治理和绿色低碳产业发展中,中国既要与既有的国际标准加快对接,也要积极参与相关绿色国际标准的谈判和制定,大力开展气候环境信息的数据库建设,建立气候环境数据中心、碳排放检测数据中心与监测平台等,结合中外合作的实际情况,透析发展中国家与发达国家的利益分歧,提高国际气候治理的影响力与话语权。
第三,在国际经贸格局与投融资转向预期中,中国应主动推进金融、能源与产业政策的调整,利用数字技术,提升行业与企业(尤其是参与海外投融资的跨国企业)的气候环境与碳排放信息披露的主动性、积极性,计算出不同目标下的减排约束,合理安排、循序渐进推动碳达峰与碳中和的阶段性短期任务,参考国际披露标准,提升披露质量。
第四,在下一步大国博弈与中美合作中,中国可通过绿色经济、绿色金融为杠杆,撬动两国战略僵局的化解与经济发展的内在需求,引入地方特色标准与行业特色标准的附加项,相互吸引中美绿色投融资的国际流动,实现“绿色双循环”,为民族复兴增力添瓦。
Low-carbon economy war new power games
Illustration: Tang Tengfei/GTUS President Joe Biden has invited 40 heads of state to the Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22 and 23. This has heated up the global competition over the low-carbon economy. This new competition could even be called "a new global green and low-carbon economy war."As climate change becomes a more and more urgent issue, climate governance has become a new lever for countries to enhance their global influence and demonstrate their leadership in international affairs. Currently, more than 110 countries, including China, have made major commitments to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, hence limiting global temperature from rising further.These major commitments reflect a rare consensus among countries. But there are many questions to be answered. We still don't know how to achieve these commitments. Nor what they will be achieved by. We are still not clear about what rules will be used to achieve the goal, and who will take the lead in achieving them. Moreover, how funds will be invested to achieve these goals remains unknown.In this regard, 2021 can be considered the year that China starts its journey to achieve carbon neutrality. It can also be regarded as the year when the world's low-carbon economic competition begins. These new starts have quite obvious impacts on the transformation of the international landscape, and the game of great powers.From the perspective of global discourse, an international competition to reshape the rules of low-carbon economics has begun. In order to achieve carbon neutrality, many countries have increased the pace of addressing climate change and developing a low-carbon economy. But we are facing a new round of international games and negotiations on relevant topics such as the identification of new green low-carbon industries, formulation of various low-carbon standards including emission reduction, and the agreement of various green rules including carbon trading. Various market access thresholds including green finance need to be addressed as well. From the perspective of international economic and trade, a restructuring of green economics and trade patterns has appeared. Carbon neutrality forces countries to speed up economic transformations. The development of clean energy is faced with great opportunities, while traditional fossil energy is at risk of being transformed or abandoned. The value chain of raw material production, import and transportation, has also shifted accordingly. The new international economic and trade structure, with a green industry at the center, will gradually become mainstream - supporting the world economy in the future. Strategic cooperation, interest games and trade competition will become main battlefields of competition among major powers on the road of carbon neutrality.From the perspective of technological innovations, a research and development race around new green industries is already steaming ahead at full speed. As a place of strategic importance, Europe, the US and other traditional developed countries have increased investment in the race. They have also upgraded it with equal importance to other high and new technology industries. Green technology has become an important driving force of low-carbon economy development and competition. It is providing a solid foundation and competitive advantage for subsequent technology transfer and green industry upgrading. If emerging economies do not follow suit, they may lose this new round of industrial revolution, which is clearly characterized by industrial upgrading for green growth.From the perspective of fund flows, an international investment and financing shift driven by green industries has already taken place. In the future, international capital will favor new green industries with potential and production capacity. Preferential policies for green industries in various countries will also become new conditions to attract high-quality foreign investors. New investment and financing rules focusing on environmental information disclosure, green equity financing ratios, green supply chains, carbon financial markets, new energy technology, low-carbon legal support, as well as resource valuation, will become hot topics in financial market, such as investment, securities and insurance.The Biden administration, which led the US back into the Paris Agreement, is promoting its new climate proposal, the Green New Deal. It can be anticipated that it will not stop the fierce competition in many related fields with China. This is an attempt to display US' might as a global leader. The upcoming Leaders Summit on Climate is only a new starting point. It is more about suppressing China in terms of international discourse, economic and trade rules, capital flows and technological innovations.China aims to have carbon dioxide emissions peak before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. This is China's great contribution to global low-carbon development. China, which still plays the role as the world's factory, has not completed industrialization. China has only 30 years to reach carbon neutrality from carbon dioxide emissions peak, far less than the time for developed countries. China's mission to reduce emissions will be difficult. It will have to be achieved, to some extent, at the expense of economic growth. This is China's responsibility as a global power. Moreover, this is China's contribution to humanity as a positive response to climate change.(The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and secretary-general of the Green Finance Committee of China Society for Finance and Banking and Finance.)
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)成立于2013年1月19日,是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库,人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员,旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前,人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来,人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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