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波兰前副总理嘲讽G7:都2021年了,还想给中国当“教师爷”?

人大重阳 2021-07-08

The following article is from 观中国 Author Grzegorz Kolodko

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作者格热戈日·科沃德科(Grzegorz W. Kolodko)系波兰前副总理兼财政部长,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员,本文刊于6月17日“观中国”微信公众号。


格热戈日·科沃德科

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现在已经是2021年了,但有些人似乎对此一无所知,仍然沉湎于自己过去的荣光而无法自拔。荣光总会褪去,妄自尊大的心态要不得,因为它不会带来任何政治上的好处。

01

昔日“辉煌”不再

中国的经济体量比“七国集团”(G7)中除美国外的其余6个国家总和还要大四分之一。如果按购买力平价计算,中国的GDP高达到26.7万亿美元,比美国还要高出17.5%,已经是世界第一大经济体;印度位列第三,俄罗斯、印尼和巴西分列第六至八位;G7经济总量占全球的30%,低于“金砖四国”(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国),且这个比重每年都在下降;土耳其和墨西哥的经济体量与意大利大体相当,韩国甚至比排名15的加拿大还高一位。因此,对于G7的横加指责,中国回应称:“世界命运由一小群国家决定的时代已经过去”,也就不足为奇了。G7国家人口还不到全球人口的10%,然而他们却自命不凡地认为自己有充分的资格对别人指手画脚,告诉人家应该做什么、如何做。

图片来源:中国日报

G7国家究竟都是些什么国家?有人说,G7代表了世界上最富裕的国家。但这不是事实——从人均收入看,新加坡、阿联酋比意大利和加拿大更富裕,奥地利比德国更富裕,比利时比日本更富裕。

还有人说,G7国家是“主要的民主国家”。这种说法更可笑了,那意思是说英国比荷兰更民主?法国比新西兰更民主?根据经济学人智库最新的“2020民主国家排名”,G7成员国中只有加拿大进入了榜单前10名。排名前三的全是北欧国家——挪威、冰岛和瑞典。G7中的另外两个成员国德国和英国排名位于第10-20之间。剩下的日本、法国、美国和意大利更是排在20名开外,其中法国、美国和意大利都被归为“有缺陷的民主国家”。

02

“压力”来自中国


当前美国的实力正经历相对下滑,尽管有些不情愿,但它也不得不承认,自己不再能够独自对抗中国,因此必须拉帮结派,寻求盟友相助。然而不幸的是,这些国家虽然看到了自身的弱点,但却开出了完全错误的“药方”。美国的“恐华症”程度之严重令人震惊。在特朗普的总统任期内,这在某种程度上还可以理解——当然,理解不代表接受——因为他对经济一无所知,不理解全球化的动态、国际竞争的机制,以及贸易平衡的本质,因此人们期待现任的拜登政府可能会采取更理性的做法。

图片来源:中国日报

拜登希望在对抗中国方面比他的前任做得更好,还想把其他国家也拉进来。然而,世界大势不可能轻易转向,如他所愿地走上“新冷战”轨道。通往美好未来的道路只有一条,那就是采取新实用主义理念,广泛开展超越国家间分歧的文化和经济合作——事实上,这种合作机会从来不缺。

我们需要对全球化进行重新阐释,让全球化更具包容性。在这方面,G7峰会上倒确实传来一些好消息——虽然也是老生常谈。峰会公报中大谈如何让世界变得更加公平正义、安全高效、清正廉洁……乍一看还以为是一场国际社会主义者的大会,谁能想到这竟是一个由信奉“金钱至上”的富国组成的“俱乐部”?

G7国家愿意支持贫穷国家办教育,让更多的儿童和年轻人,特别是女孩去上学,这很好。这些大国都已经认识到,必须解决收入差距过大的问题,这也很好。他们终于无法容忍多年来过高的全球税收,希望做出改变,这真是太好了。还有更好的呢,他们认识到必须有效地同贫困作斗争,减少社会隔阂。但这背后的原因,我想绝不是因为他们终于“良心发现”,而是在经历了“黄背心”运动和“黑人的命也是命”抗议活动之后,新自由主义者和保守派开始害怕自己的影子,开始意识到形势对他们来说越来越危险,他们所挚爱的所谓“自由民主”正处于危机之中。

图片来源:中国日报

形势之所以“危险”,是因为他们看到,中国已经成功消除了极端贫困,而中国的近邻——被他们树立为“亚洲民主国家样板”的印度,仍有1亿多人在赤贫中苦苦挣扎。形势之所以“危险”,是因为中国提出的“一带一路”倡议正在全球稳步推进,展现出强大的生机,而这正是是西方一些人所不乐见的。

拜登呼吁西方“民主国家”基于“我们共同的价值观”,共同抵制“一带一路”倡议——这真是令人震惊。如果这些富裕国家真的如他们在公报上所言,想在人力资本和基础设施投资方面加大对发展中国家的援助,那就不应该把反华的意图夹带进去,而是应该对包括世界银行和各开发银行(如亚洲开发银行、非洲开发银行等)在内的现行全球和区域治理框架进行调整和完善,这些银行也需要进行资产重组。

在推动世界经济发展的过程中,中国不是敌人,而是合作伙伴。

同样,在帮助欠发达国家民众接种新冠疫苗方面,中国和俄罗斯也不应被视为竞争对手。G7公报中承诺明年将为较贫穷的国家提供10亿剂疫苗,这个表态值得称赞,但如果与其他国家(尤其是中国)的行动结合起来,那就更值得称赞了。习近平主席呼吁让疫苗成为全球公共产品,这需要全球协调,而世界卫生组织无疑是最佳的协调者。然而不幸的是,即使是在这个人道主义问题上,G7也没有呼吁全球合作,而是试图用恶性竞争的方式来凸显自己“更好”。

图片来源:新华社

03

空谈多于实干


美国在无用的军费上不断增加开支,而不是为世界上的穷人提供经济援助。它不仅自己这样干,还施压其他国家也这样干,就好像军费一多,人类的繁荣就有了保障。如果把这种热情用在经济的低碳转型上该多好啊!在这方面,G7峰会确实取得了成果——起码做出了承诺。

但问题是,承诺不能只是一纸空谈。什么叫“一纸空谈”?2009年,G7国家宣布,将从2020年开始,每年向欠发达国家提供1000亿美元用以应对气候变暖——这就叫“一纸空谈”。

今年11月,联合国气候变化大会将在英国格拉斯哥召开,届时来自G7国家以及中国、印度和俄罗斯等国的领导人将齐聚于此。如果相关国家能把承诺变为负责任的现实行动,那么今年的G7峰会就算没白开。

G7峰会闭幕了,但它不应被视为一个“终点站”,而更应被视为今年G20峰会的“前哨站”。当然,由19个国家和欧盟组成的G20也并不是全世界,但毕竟要比G7更具多样性和代表性。如果这次G7峰会对社会表达关切的声音是真诚的,并在即将到来的G20峰会上得以延续,那将是好事一件。不过就目前来看,各国“大佬”们回去之后,仍旧是该借钱借钱,该印钞印钞,还是原来那老一套,好像这样一来,就啥都解决了。


以下为英文版

Quest for inclusive globalization

By GRZEGORZ W. KOLODKO


The G7 members should concentrate on working to ensure a more equal and fairer world rather than telling others what to doIt is already 2021, but some seem ignorant of this, still living in the delusion of their imperishable greatness. Well, greatness passes away, and it is better to get rid of megalomania because it does no good in politics.Aside from the United States, China produces one-fourth more than all the remaining six G7 members put together. With GDP(in purchasing power parity) of $26.7 trillion (17.5 percent more than the US), it is the world's largest economy. India is third, Russia, Indonesia, and Brazil-sixth, seventh, and eighth, respectively. The G7 economies produce a total of 30 percent of the global output, which is less than that of the BRIC countries-Brazil, Russia, India and China, and their share is dropping every year. Both Turkey and Mexico produce more than Italy, and the Republic of Korea more than Canada, which is only 15th in the world.Is it any wonder, then, that the Chinese respond to the scolding of the G7 by saying that a small group of countries cannot tell the whole world how to arrange things? The population of the G7 countries is less than 10 percent of the inhabitants of the Earth but this panjandrum think that this is enough to instruct others on what to do and how to behave.We are informed that the leaders of the seven richest countries in the world meet at the G7 Summit. But this is contradicted by the facts: in terms of income per capita Singapore and the United Arab Emirates are richer than Italy and Canada, Austria is richer than Germany, and Belgium is richer than Japan.It was reported that the leaders of the major democracies had gathered in Cornwall as if democracy is more advanced in the United Kingdom than in Holland or in France than in New Zealand. According to the latest ranking by The Economist Intelligence Unit, there is only one G7 member-Canada-in the top 10 of the "major democracies". The rankings are led by the Nordic countries-Norway, Iceland and Sweden. Two of the G7 members-Germany and the UK-are in the second 10.Japan is 21st, the US ranks 25th, and Italy 30th, and the latter two are described as "flawed democracies".The US is getting relatively weaker and is unwillingly to admit that it is no longer able to stand up to China on its own. It is looking for allies.Unfortunately, they draw fundamentally wrong conclusions from the fact of their own weakness. American Sinophobia is astonishing. While during Donald Trump's presidency it could somehow be understood-understood, not accepted-as a result of his economic ignorance, as he did not comprehend the dynamics of globalization, the mechanisms of international competition and the essence of the trade balance, a more rational approach could rather be expected from the Joe Biden administration.The way forward cannot involve the change of emphasis in the new Cold War suggested by the current US president, who wants to be better in terms of confrontation with China than his infamous predecessor and is trying to draw others into this game. The only healthy way to a better future is through the new pragmatism, cultural and economic cooperation that also transcends divisions, which will never be in short supply.What is needed is a reinterpretation of globalization, which must indeed become more inclusive. In this respect, the G7 Summit does bring something good, although it is nothing new. Seeing the eruption of declarations about how it is going to be equal and fairer, more efficient and safer, more honest and cleaner, one might get the impression that this is a congress of international socialists and not a meeting of rich countries where money rules.It is very good that there is a desire to support education in poor countries, so that more children and young people, especially girls, are educated. It is just fine that the mighty of this world are recognizing that excessive income inequality must be tackled. It is excellent that they finally want to put an end to the tax avoidance excesses that have been tolerated for years. It is even better that they have understood that it is necessary to fight poverty effectively and to reduce social exclusion. However, I suppose that it is not due to deep conviction, but rather in the wake of the Yellow Vest protests and the Black Lives Matter movement that neoliberals and conservatives have become frightened of their own shadow and are beginning to understand that the situation is getting dangerous to them. Is it not because the so-called liberal democracy, which they love so much, is in crisis?The situation has become dangerous because of China, which, although it has a per capita income just approaching the world average, has managed to completely eradicate extreme poverty. It has been able to do this while in neighboring democratic India, there are more than 100 million destitute people living-and dying-in abject poverty.The situation has become dangerous because, although some in the West do not like it, China is pursuing its giant transnational Belt and Road Initiative with great vigor and consistency. President Biden's call for Western democracies committed to "our shared values" to oppose this initiative is astonishing. If the real issue is to increase the rich countries' commitment to investing in human capital and infrastructure in developing countries, this should not be done with anti-Chinese intentions, the existing network of global and regional structures-from the World Bank to the continental development banks, such as the Asian Development Bank or African Development Bank-should be improved and these banks must be recapitalized. China must not be treated as an enemy in co-financing the development of the world economy but must be pragmatically cooperated with.Similarly, there should be no rivalry with China (or with Russia) in helping to vaccinate the populations of less developed countries against the novel coronavirus. The G7's intention to give them a billion vaccines is commendable, but it would be even more so if the aid declared was combined with the actions of others, especially China. It was President Xi Jinping who called on others to make vaccines a global public good. This requires sound global coordination, and no one is better equipped to do this than the World Health Organization. Unfortunately, even when it comes to this humanitarian issue, the G7 has failed to call for global cooperation, and instead, it relies on harmful competition to show who is "better".The US is increasing its wasteful spending on arms and putting pressure on others to follow this path, as if our prosperity depended on it, rather than providing financial assistance to help the world's poor. What if this zeal was transferred to the decarbonization of the economy? In this respect, the G7 Summit went far, at least in terms of assurances. It will now be crucial that the politicians from these and other countries-including China, India and Russia-will come to Glasgow in November for the COP 26 climate summit. If these are no longer just empty declarations-like the one made by the G7 in 2009, to give the less developed countries $100 billion per year starting from 2020 to combat global warming-but responsible commitments, then the Cornwall pledges will be written on the right side of history.Let us treat the British G7 Summit not just as group's swan song, but as working consultations ahead of the G20 Summit, which, with 19 countries and the European Union, is also not the whole world, but certainly no longer the usurper of the G7, and, thanks to its diversity, is much more representative. If the accents of social concern expressed this time are sincere and carried forward to the upcoming G20 Summit then it will be a good thing. For the time being, the great politicians are back in their capitals, telling their finance ministers to borrow huge amounts of money and central banks to print even more, so that nothing on the long shopping list will be unavailable.


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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)成立于2013年1月19日,是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。


作为中国特色新型智库,人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员,旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前,人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来,人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。






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