马丁·雅克：世界俨然一杯可怕“鸡尾酒”，新秩序何在？

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编者按：5月6日晚，中国公共外交协会、中国人民大学主办，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院承办召开“求和平、促发展：全球20国智库在线对话会”。外交部副部长乐玉成作特别演讲并现场问答。英国著名学者、中国问题专家、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员马丁·雅克作主题演讲，以下为讲话实录。本文刊于5月8日北京日报app。

美国衰落、全球疫情、气候变化三者混合成了一杯可怕的“鸡尾酒”。

马丁·雅克5月6日会议发言视频（中英双语字幕）国际环境已经发生了重大转变。我们已经进入了深度动荡时代，未来极其难以预测。而造成当前局面最重要的原因正是美国的衰落。美国长期以来的全球霸权一旦开始失去权威，所有的国家都开始不同程度地改变行为方式。美国领导下的世界秩序进入衰落的初始阶段，而这很可能会持续多年。历史上与此最相近的情形是1918至1939年，英国的全球霸权快速衰落，并在大萧条期间彻底衰败，世界则分裂成为基于货币的保护主义区块，最终迎来了第二次世界大战。在这样的时期内，不仅国际形势难以预测，而且世界和平遭受严重威胁。当然，美国的衰落不是动荡唯一的来源。比如新冠疫情的影响，或许超过了1945年以来任何单一、重大经济或政治事件的影响。再比如在未来四十年或更久的时间内，气候变化问题将是所有国家的重大变数。美国衰落、全球疫情、气候变化三者混合成了一杯可怕的“鸡尾酒”。接下来的时期，国际环境会充满更加重大的挑战，与中国过去40年改革开放时期所经历的世界局势将完全不同。在全球经济整体孱弱、经济危机阴云笼罩的情况下，如何能够尽量保障经济发展？在世界充斥冲突、尤其中美之间矛盾重重的形势下，如何能够尽量维持减碳任务的全球共识？在战争再度折磨欧洲的时候，如何能够维系和平？如何能够建立“护栏”以避免中美关系的恶化影响世界和平？美国或许已经开始衰落，但任何人都不应低估美国维持其霸权地位的决心。这也几乎是美国两党唯一达成共识的问题了。美国在不断寻求使中国发展“脱轨”的方法。甚至我担心，更糟糕的情况仍未到来，比如在某个时刻，中国持有的美债可能会被美国认为是“公平游戏”（的筹码）。世界面临着重大挑战。如何取得共识、和解、对话，以及在这三者可能缺乏的条件下着力寻求共同点？如何在深度动荡中寻求稳定？如何在“堡垒心态”支配的情形下促进对话？构建人类命运共同体不仅仅是一个美好的理念，更是我们这个时代迫在眉睫的头等大事。这就要求我们拥有耐心、恒心、交流、妥协，要求我们将长期利益置于短期利益之前。这也正是一带一路传递的精神和讯息。过去的方法与秩序已经在衰退，时代的动荡正是过去秩序滋生危机的产物，全新的世界秩序即将到来。

以下为英文版

Facing a Dangerous Cocktail, a New World Order Awaits

马丁·雅克

The global climate has changed greatly. We have entered an era of profound instability. The future has become highly unpredictable. The most important single reason for this is the decline of the US. Once the long-standing global hegemon begins to lose its authority, all countries in varying degrees behave differently. This phase is set to last many years: the twilight phase of the US-led global order is likely to be protracted. The nearest parallel to this situation was between 1918 and 1939 with the rapid decline of Britain as the global hegemon which culminated in the Great Depression, the division of the world into protectionist currency-based blocs, and ultimately the Second World War. Such periods are not just unpredictable, they pose a serious threat to world peace. Of course, America’s decline is not the only cause of instability. The pandemic probably had a greater impact than any other major event, economic or political, since 1945. And then, of course, there is climate change which will transform every country and the entire world over the next forty years and beyond. US decline, the pandemic and climate change make up a formidable cocktail.

The next period will be profoundly different from the forty years of China’s reform period. It will pose a far greater challenge. How to secure economic growth when the global economy is likely to be weak and the threat of a major new economic crisis at some point quite likely? How to maintain a global consensus on carbon reduction at a time when the world is riven with conflict, especially between the US and China. How to maintain peace with war once again afflicting Europe? And how to ensure that there are guard rails in the deteriorating relationship between the US and China which can prevent it threatening world peace. America may be in rapid decline, but no one should underestimate America’s determination to hold on to its position as the global hegemon. This is close to being the only bipartisan issue in America today. The US is on the search for ways of derailing China. Worse, I fear, is still to come; even China’s US Treasury Bills may at some point be considered fair game.

The world is confronted with a huge challenge. How to achieve consensus, conciliation, dialogue, and common ground at a time of widespread retreat from such values. How to find stability at a time of profound instability. How to foster dialogue at a time when a fortress mentality has become so prevalent. Building a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind is not just a nice idea, it is the urgent, overarching imperative of our time. It will require patience, persistence, dialogue, compromise, the prioritisation of the long term over the short term. It will require new thinking and great imagination. That is the spirit and message of Belt and Road. The old way and the old order are in retreat. The instability of our time is a product of the growing crisis of the old order. A new kind of world awaits.

// 人大重阳    

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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