在俄最大论坛，中国学者疾呼须防世界大战
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编者按：俄罗斯年度最大论坛第25届圣彼得堡国际经济论坛于2022年6月15-18日举行。来自141个国家13500名代表、43国政要参会，俄总统普京、哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫等出席开幕式。中国国家主席习近平应邀致辞。俄顶级智库瓦尔代俱乐部承办主题为“自给自足与合作：政治经济学的新形态”分论坛，邀请中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文做主题发言。王文在发言中讲述“美国将金融、贸易武器化，迫使新兴国家不得不寻求经济自主”、“防止世界大战”等观点受到了在场人士的广泛肯定。观察者网、北京日报客户端报道此次会议。人大重阳君将现场发言视频与讲稿发布如下：
我们的确没料到，在“全球化”概念提出40年后，还在讨论“自给自足”的问题。这真是世界发展的悲剧，也是政治经济学的思想困境。
以上为王文在第25届圣彼得堡国际经济论坛“自给自足与合作：政治经济学的新形态”分论坛上的发言视频，时长约8分20秒
政治经济学的新议题
谢谢瓦尔代俱尔部再次邀请我。
我们的确没料到，在“全球化”概念提出40年后，还在讨论“自给自足”的问题。这真是世界发展的悲剧，也是政治经济学的思想困境。
在政治经济学的理论逻辑下，通过社会分工和协作，社会化生产不断增长，必然会突破一国边界，形成世界大市场。然而，很可惜，现在科技、能源大宗商品的国际市场都出现了裂痕与脱钩迹象，导致越来越多的人担心全球化是否会倒退。
全球化出现倒退可能性的风险，最主要原因是美国的胁迫。近年来，美国拿高科技、美元、贸易当武器，对俄罗斯、中国等新兴国家进行封锁、制裁，迫使越来越多的发展中国家考虑“自给自足”的问题。从这个角度看，美国是全球化的最大麻烦制造者。
中国正在超越美国，成为全球最大的消费市场。两年前，中国提出“构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”战略，简称“双循环战略”。中国希望利用国内大市场的优势，使中国有实力在关键技术领域实现自主创新，比如，大飞机制造、芯片、汽车发动机等等，减少对西方的依赖，也防止被美国不断威胁，推动更平等的合作。
但中国“双循环”战略，不是重回封闭经济，或者说是自给自足的经济，也不是要与西方脱钩，而是希望通过国内大市场的优势更好地推进高水平开放，提升经济自主性，比如，扩大进口、再平衡贸易与经济的关系。
在中国特色政治经济学的理论框架中，全球化是必然趋势，尤其是数字经济时代，没有人能阻挡经济全球化。从国际贸易、投资、人流、信息的数据看，每年仍在呈现增长的速度。中国是全球化的受益者，也是捍卫者、建设者与贡献者。
“自给自足与合作：政治经济学的新形态”分论坛现场
目前我们需要思考的全球化变化趋势是，全球化的速度，以及全球化由谁来引领？就此，我想分享关于政治经济学的四个观点：
第一，全球化动力的变化。过去，全球化的动力源于西方；现在，已转为发展中国家，尤其是金砖国家。2021 年金砖国家同比增长 7.6%，高于5.5%的全球平均增速。金砖国家增长对全球的贡献已经连续10年超过50%。新兴国家的研发投入、服务贸易、基建投资的增长速度都高于西方国家，多种数据说明，金砖国家正在成为全球化新的火车头。
第二，没有国家有能力完全封锁他国。目前看来，西方制裁俄罗斯的战略已经失败。过去40年，制裁没有打垮伊朗、朝鲜，也不可能遏制住中国、俄罗斯的发展。制裁只会暴露西方的自私，以及倒逼新兴经济体更重视在技术、金融上的自给自足。从这个角度看，“西方中心主义”将会终结。未来的全球化会是更均衡、更平等、更普惠的全球化。
第三，要有最坏的准备，要有底线思维，但努力避免世界重回自给自足经济。近年来，国际秩序出现了封闭、对抗、强权的政治力量。美国印太战略则进一步加剧了阵营化的趋势。目前我们需要努力阻止“完全脱钩”，需要阻止新的世界大战，需要抵御美国霸权的压制，在这方面，新兴经济体须在关键技术上推动国产化替代，在粮食、能源储备上实现必要的自主性，与同此时，也要维持人口、投资、贸易的国际合作上保持必要的增长速度。
第四，需要有更广的视野，防止未来的地球灾难，探索更广的宇宙空间。当下大国关系的紧张，一个被忽视的原因在于全球资源的有限性。地球的资源不足以支撑80亿人口的现代化生活，国家争夺资源的目标应该转向更广的宇宙、更高的科技领域。人类应该团结，探索太空，探索新型核能技术，创新低碳减排技术，规范人工智能技术，这样既能防范未来的气候危机、病毒危机和粮食危机，也能够拯救人类未来的命运。
以下为英文版
New Issues in Political Economy
——Keynote presentation at the sub-forum "Self-sufficiency and Cooperation: New Forms of Political Economy" at the St. Petersburg Forum of the Valdai Club
By Wang Wen
Many thanks Valdai Club for having me again.
We did not expect that 40 years after the concept of "globalization" was proposed, the issue of "self-sufficiency" was still being discussed. This is truly a tragedy of world development and an ideological predicament of political economy.
Under the theoretical logic of political economy, through social division of labor and cooperation, the continuous growth of socialized production will inevitably break through the boundaries of a country and form a large world market. However, It is a pity that there are now signs of cracks and decoupling in the international markets of high-tech and energy commodities, leading to more and more people worrying about whether globalization would go backwards.
The risk of the possibility of retrogression in globalization is mainly due to the coercion of the United States. In recent years, the United States has used high-tech, dollars, and trade as weapons to block and sanction emerging countries such as Russia and China, forcing more and more developing countries to consider the issue of "self-sufficiency". From this perspective, the United States is the biggest troublemaker of globalization.
China is overtaking the US as the world's largest consumer market. Two years ago, China proposed the strategy of "building a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body, the domestic & international dual cycles promoting each other", referred to as the "dual cycle strategy". China hopes to take advantage of its large domestic market to enable China to achieve independent innovation in key technological fields, such as large aircraft manufacturing, chips, car engines, etc., to reduce its dependence on the West, and to prevent the constant threats from the United States and promote more equal cooperation.
However, China's "dual circulation" strategy is not to return to a closed economy, nor a self-sufficient economy, nor to decouple from the West, but to better promote high-level opening and enhance economic autonomy through the advantages of a large domestic market, for example, expanding imports and rebalancing the relationship between trade and the economy.
In the theoretical framework of political economy with Chinese characteristics, globalization is an inevitable trend, especially in the era of digital economy, no one can stop economic globalization. Judging from the data of international trade, investment, flow of people and information, it is still showing a growth rate every year. China is a beneficiary of globalization, as well as a defender, builder and contributor.
At present, the changing trend of globalization that we need to think about is the speed of globalization and who will lead it? In this regard, I would like to share four points of view about new issues in Political Economy:
First, changes in the dynamics of globalization. In the past, the driving force of globalization originated from the West; now, it has turned to developing countries, especially the BRICS countries. In 2021, the BRICS countries grew by 7.6% year-on-year, which is higher than the global average growth rate of 5.5%. The contribution of BRICS growth to the world has exceeded 50% for 10 consecutive years. The growth rate of R&D investment, service trade, and infrastructure investment in emerging countries is higher than that of Western countries. Various data show that the BRICS countries are becoming a new locomotive of globalization.
Second, no country has the ability to completely block other countries. At present, the Western strategy of sanctioning Russia has failed. In the past 40 years, sanctions have not crushed Iran and North Korea, nor can they contain the development of China and Russia. Sanctions will only expose the selfishness of the West, and force emerging economies to pay more attention to self-sufficiency in technology and finance. From this perspective, "Western-centrism" will come to an end. The future globalization will be more balanced, more equal and more inclusive.
Third, prepare for the worst, think bottom-line, but try to keep the world from returning to a self-sufficient economy. In recent years, closed, confrontational and powerful political forces have emerged in the international order. The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy further exacerbates the trend of camping. At present, we need to work hard to prevent "complete decoupling", to prevent a new world war, and to resist the repression of US hegemony. In this regard, emerging economies must promote localized substitution in key technologies and achieve necessary food and energy reserves independence, and at the same time, it is necessary to maintain the middle growth rate in terms of international cooperation in people, investment, and trade.
Fourth, it is necessary to have a broader vision, prevent future disasters on Earth, and explore a wider universe. One of the neglected reasons for the current tension between major powers is the limited global resources. The earth's resources are not enough to support the modern life of 8 billion people. The country's goal of competing for resources should turn to a wider universe and higher technological fields. Human beings should unite to explore space, explore new nuclear energy technologies, innovate low-carbon emission reduction technologies, and standardize AI technologies. This can not only prevent future climate crises, virus crises and food crises, but also save the future destiny of mankind.
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// 人大重阳
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RDCY
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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