[E449]Prophets and profiteers
本文音频及原文摘自杂志The Economist 2016年第27期，Finance and Economics版块。
Contrarian investing
Who made money from the Brexit vote?
Jul 2nd 2016
FOUR out of five hedge-fund[1] managers had expected Britain to vote to remain in the European Union, according to a poll[投票;民意测验] by Preqin, a data firm. But a handful saw Brexit coming and invested accordingly. They made hundreds of millions by betting against assets that were likely to suffer from an Out vote. Crispin Odey’s London-based fund, which manages around $10 billion and has had a terrible year, jumped nearly 15% on the day after the vote. That was thanks to short positions[2] on the shares of a number of British firms (including Aberdeen, an asset manager, and Berkeley Group, a builder) and a big investment in gold. Others, such as Atlantic Investment Management, prospered[3] by betting against sterling[英国货币;标准纯银], which fell this week to its lowest value against the dollar since 1985.
Another successful approach was to do what hedge funds were originally set up to do: hedge (not many do these days). “Did we see it coming? No,” admits Lukas Daalder of Robeco, a Dutch asset manager, who says he was able to limit damage by recognising the vote was too close to call[4]. He tried to surprise-proof his portfolio[5] by betting that sterling would fall against the dollar and by investing in so-called “flattener trades” (in his case, offsetting bets on 30-year bonds[债券] and ten-year ones).
Many of the funds that rely on quantitative models[量化模型,定量模型] or automatic trading seemed to perform better than those at which humans were in charge. The NuWave Matrix Fund, whose trades are based on historical market patterns, surged[陡增,剧增,急剧上升] by around 12% on Friday. Some funds simply did well because they always do well in volatile times. Quadratic Capital Management’s unusual strategy of investing almost exclusively[唯一地;专有地;排外地] in options[期权] means that it makes money during upheaval[6] because the price of options[期权] increases with volatility. And then there was a tried-and-tested approach to uncertainty: sit it out and look for buying opportunities in the aftermath[7]. Michael Hintze of CQS, another asset manager, had advised those without a view on the outcome of the vote to raise cash[集资] and be ready to buy.
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注释
[1]hedge-fund 套利基金;对冲基金;避险基金;套头基金
hedge fund：a financial service where money is invested (= given to companies hoping to get more back) in a way which tries to make very big profits, but which has a big risk 对冲基金（一种公司采取的高风险，高回报的投资方式）
a hedge fund manager
对冲基金经理人
[2]short position 证券或外汇交易中未补抛空差额，欠缺的头寸
[3]prosper ['prɒspə]
(of a person or a business) to be or become successful, especially financially （人或企业）成功；（尤指经济上）繁荣，昌盛
A lot of microchip manufacturing companies prospered at that time.
摉时许多生产芯片的公司都非常兴旺。
[4]too close to call：if the result of a competition or election is too close to call, it is not clear who the winner is until the competition has ended or until all the votes have been counted势均力敌；难分伯仲；过于接近以至无法预告
[5]portfolio [pɔːt'fəʊlɪəʊ]
a collection of company shares and other investments that are owned by a particular person or organization （个人或机构的）投资组合
[6]upheaval [ʌp'hiːv(ə)l]
(a) great change, especially causing or involving much difficulty, activity or trouble 激变；动荡；剧变
Yesterday's coup brought further upheaval to a country already struggling with famine.
昨天的军事政变使这个正在饥荒中挣扎的国家更加动荡不安。
[7]in the aftermath 在…之后;创伤之后;挫折之后
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以上言论不代表本人立场。
原文摘自The economist，仅外语学习之用。
其中生词解释来源于Cambridge Dictionaries
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