[E485]Law of averages | 经济学人
本文音频及原文摘自杂志The Economist 2016年第35期，Finance and Economics版块。
Hedge funds
Star funds rarely outperform for long
Aug 27th 2016 | NEW YORK
WHEN Citadel, a Chicago-based hedge fund[1], was bleeding money[严重亏损] during the global financial crisis, its boss, Ken Griffin, says CNBC, a broadcaster, parked a van outside its doors to chronicle[2] its demise[3]. Last year CNBC crowned[4] Mr Griffin “King Ken”; in recent years he has done spectacularly[壮观地;引人注目地;引人入胜地] well.
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Such abrupt twists of fortune[财富/命运突然的起伏不定] appear dramatic. In fact, they are predictable. Novus, an analytics firm, has crunched numbers[5] from Hedge Fund Research, a data provider, to suggest that hedge-fund performance shares a trait[特性,特点;品质] boringly familiar from other forms of investment: funds that do poorly then do better, and outperformers then underperform. In other words, past performance is not a guide to future returns (see chart).
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The study filters data for two periods: from June 1st 2008 to February 28th 2009, when equity[(公司的)股本,股票值;股票] and credit markets[信贷市场] were crashing, and from March 1st 2009 until the end of 2015. The funds are anonymised but show plenty of Citadel-like cases. One fund that lost 91% during the crash returned an annualised 42% afterwards. Conversely[相反地], among the 93 funds that finished in the top decile during the crash, only three remained star performers. Perhaps they were dazzlingly[耀眼地;灿烂地] smart back then. Perhaps they were just lucky.
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The study is not perfect. The database includes 928 firms that are still around; others may have closed their doors. But the dots also reveal that quite a few funds performed poorly during both periods, belying[6] the claim that hedge funds optimise returns during good times and minimise damage when things turn nasty[糟糕的;令人不快的]. That may explain why this year is expected to be the first since the crisis when investors pull more money out of hedge funds than they put into them.
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注释
[1]hedge fund 对冲基金
A hedge fund is an investment fund that invests large amounts of money using methods that involve a lot of risk.
采用对冲交易手段的基金称为对冲基金，也称避险基金或套期保值基金。
[2]chronicle ['krɒnɪk(ə)l]
to make a record or give details of something 记述，记录（大事）；把…载入编年史
The book chronicles the writer's coming to terms with his illness.
这本书记述了作者慢慢学会忍受自己病痛的前后过程。
[3]demise [dɪ'maɪz]
the end of something that was previously considered to be powerful, such as a business, industry, or system 倒闭；败落；垮台
The demise of the company was sudden and unexpected.
该公司出人意料地突然倒闭了。
[4]crown：to put a crown on someone's head in an official ceremony that makes that person king or queen 为…加冕；立…为君主
Queen Elizabeth II was crowned (queen) (= made queen in a special ceremony) in 1953.
伊丽莎白女王二世于1953年加冕。
[5]crunch：To crunch numbers means to do a lot of calculations using a calculator or computer. (用计算器或电脑) 运算
[6]belie：to show something to be false, or to hide something such as an emotion 给人以假象；掩饰（感情等）
Her calm face belied the terror she was feeling.
她平静的表情掩盖了内心的恐惧。
[7]Law of averages 平均律；平均法则 the principle that over the long term laws of probability will influence all events that are subject to them
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以上言论不代表本人立场。
原文摘自The economist，仅外语学习之用。
其中生词解释来源于Cambridge Dictionaries
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