[E385]Fudge-ocracy|经济学人
本文音频及原文摘自杂志The Economist《经济学人》2016年第13期，Finance and economics版块。
Chinese economic data
The way to get ahead in China is to manipulate statistics
Mar 26th 2016 | SHANGHAI
IN THEORY[1] Chinese officials receive promotions[2] based on their performance against a range of targets: delivering strong growth[3], maintaining social stability[4] and, until recently, enforcing the one-child policy[5]. But scholars debate whether the system really rewards those who excel according to these (in any case flawed) metrics[6]. Some believe the emphasis on merit[7] is real, and helps explain China’s stunning economic progress over the past 35 years. Others reckon that[8] connections to the right leaders matter more for those trying to advance their careers[9]. New research, however, suggests a third option: that those who get ahead[10] are adept[11] not at stimulating growth[12] nor at currying favour[13], but at cooking the books[14].
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注释
[1]理论上
[2]获得晋升
[3](经济)实现强劲增长//deliver economic growth
[4]保持社会安定;维护社会稳定
[5]执行/实施独生子女政策
[6]学者对这一制度是否能真正根据这些(多少都有缺陷的)指标来奖励完成度好的官员而表示质疑。
[7]merit 优点;价值;功绩
[8]reckon (to think or believe) 想;认为,以为
I reckon it's going to rain.
我觉得天要下雨了。
[9]其他人认为，跟对的领导搞好关系比发展自己的事业更重要。
[10]get ahead 取得进展;获得成功
(to be successful in the work that you do)
It's tough for a woman to get ahead in politics.
一个女性在政界获得成功是很困难的。
[11]be adept at 擅长于,精于,善于
[12]stimulate growth促进增长;刺激(经济)增长;刺激(经济)发展,拉动经济
[13]curry favour (尤指对当权者)讨好,奉承,拍马屁
(to praise someone, especially someone in authority, in a way that is not sincere, in order to get some advantage for yourself)
He's always trying to curry favour with the boss.
他总是想方设法拍老板马屁。
[14]cook the books (尤指为偷钱而)篡改账目
(to keep false financial records for an organization)
(to change numbers dishonestly in the accounts (= financial records) of an organization, especially in order to steal money from it)
做假账,伪造账目,伪造(或窜改)财务报表
生词
▷stunning ['stʌnɪŋ]
or very
震惊；惊讶All the have a stunning .所有的想法都简单得出奇。
or
极漂亮的，极迷人的a stunning 漂亮的连衣裙a stunning over the of Saint Tropez俯瞰圣特罗佩湾的迷人景色
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A recent paper from America’s National Bureau of Economic Research[1] uses fertility rates[2] as a way to test this theory. Economists have found a relationship between GDP growth in an official’s fiefdom and subsequent promotion[3], but it is difficult to know how accurate the GDP figures are (a question that haunts anyone following the Chinese economy). Population data are different: in addition to the figures provided by local officials, China conducts a census every ten years[4], revising population data all the way down to the village level. That makes it possible to pinpoint where bureaucrats[5] have been fiddling the statistics.
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注释
[1]NBER美国全国经济研究所
[2]fertility rates 生育率;人口出生率
[3]fiefdom(=fief) 封地,采邑
(an area of land, especially one that is rented and paid for by work)
经济学家发现了官员所管辖地区的GDP增长和官员后续的晋升之间存在一定的关系。
[4]census 人口普查(每10年一次)
[5]bureaucrat 官僚
生词
▷haunt [hɔːnt]
to or
使经常苦恼；不断困扰Fighting in Vietnam was an that would haunt him for the of his .越南战争的经历给他日后的生活留下了挥之不去的阴影。Thirty after the he is still haunted by of and .那场火灾过去30年之后，死亡和毁灭的场景仍在他脑海中挥之不去。
▷pinpoint ['pɪnpɒɪnt]
to out or say the in or of something
准确指出，确定（位置或时间）It is not to pinpoint the of .准确地确定死亡时间是不可能的。
to or the about something
查明；准确描述Emergency at the are still to pinpoint the of the .现场的急救人员仍然无法确定爆炸的原因。
▷fiddle ['fɪd(ə)l]
to in to get something for yourself, or to something , to
（尤指为个人利益而）用诡计获得，篡改，伪造She to fiddle a to .她想办法骗取了一趟去美国的免费旅行。He had been fiddling the // for .多年来他一直在伪造账目／账簿／财务状况
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Examining data on 967 mayors in 28 provinces from 1985 to 2000, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Xiao Yu Wang of Duke University[1] and Shuang Zhang of University of Colorado, Boulder[2], find that officials who claimed to have suppressed population growth[3] were rewarded. Mayors who reduced the local birth rate by one child per 1,000 people per year by their own count had a 10% greater chance of being promoted.
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注释
[1]Duke University杜克大学
[2]University of Colorado, Boulder 科罗拉多大学博尔德分校
[3]suppress population growth抑制/控制人口增长
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But the relationship between fertility rates and career trajectory[1] disappears when using the census data rather than the figures reported by the local officials themselves[2]. Mayors who received promotions were no better or worse at curbing population growth[3] than those who did not. The way to get ahead in the Chinese bureaucracy, it seems, is to falsify statistics[4]. It makes you wonder what other data have been doctored[5].
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注释
[1]career trajectory职业轨迹
[2]如果用人口普查的数据而不是当地官员发布的数据来研究的话，就找不出出生率和官员职业轨迹之间的关系了。
[3]curb population growth
=上文的suppress population growth
[4]falsify statistics伪造统计数据
=上文的fiddle the statistics
=cook the books
=下文的doctor[熟词僻义]
生词
▷doctor ['dɒktə]
to a in to
窜改，涂改He was to have the with doctored .他被发现向法庭提供了窜改过的证据。
to put a or into or
下（毒），投（毒）Bottles of doctored with were in the .厨房里发现了几瓶掺了老鼠药的柠檬汁。
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以上言论不代表本人立场。
原文摘自《经济学人》，仅外语学习之用。
其中生词解释来源于Cambridge Dictionaries
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