Why do arguments change people’s minds in some cases and backfire in others? Hugo Mercier explains how arguments are more convincing when they rest on a good knowledge of the audience, taking into account what the audience believes, who they trust, and what they value.
Lesson by Hugo Mercier, animation by TED-Ed.
为什么争论在某些情况下会改变人们的想法，而在另一些情况下会适得其反呢？ 雨果·梅西耶（Hugo Mercier）解释说，当论点建立在对听众有充分了解的基础上时，他们将如何提高说服力，同时考虑到听众的信念，所信任的人以及所重视的东西。
演讲题目：How can you change someone's mind?
Three people are at a dinner party. Paul, who’s married, is looking at Linda. Meanwhile, Linda is looking at John, who’s not married. Is someone who’s married looking at someone who’s not married? Take a moment to think about it. 三个人正在参加晚宴。已婚的保罗正盯着琳达看。与此同时，琳达却盯着未婚的约翰。有没有谁已经结婚却盯着未婚的人看呢？花点时间想一想。
Researchers presented participants with a news article that showed no weapons of mass destruction had been found. Yet many participants not only continued to believe that WMDs had been found, but they even became more convinced of their original views. 研究员们展示给参与者一篇新的文章，内容是说没有找到大规模杀伤性武器。但是许多参与人员不仅继续相信大规模杀伤性武器存在，并且甚至更坚定自己原来的想法。So why do arguments change people’s minds in some cases and backfire in others? Arguments are more convincing when they rest on a good knowledge of the audience, taking into account what the audience believes, who they trust, and what they value. 为何观点有时能改变人们的想法而有时却起到反作用？观点若要更具说服力需要建立在充分了解受众的基础上，考虑到他们相信什么，他们信任谁，以及他们在乎什么。
Mathematical and logical arguments like the dinner party brainteaser work because even when people reach different conclusions, they’re starting from the same set of shared beliefs. In 1931, a young, unknown mathematician named Kurt Gödel presented a proof that a logically complete system of mathematics was impossible. 对于晚宴问题这样的趣味智力题，数理逻辑的观点之所以行得通。在于即便人们得到不同的结论，他们是基于相同的价值观进行思考。1931年，一位年轻而默默无闻的数学家Kurt Gödel证明了，一个逻辑上完备的数学体系是不可能的。
they were presented with data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in this case showing that the answer was 11 of the 12 years. Being provided with these reliable statistics from a trusted official source made people more likely to accept the reality that the earth is warming. 他们会看到来自气候变化政府小组的数据，数据会先显示出答案是11年。当看到这些来自值得信任的官方数据，人们更倾向于接受全球变暖的事实。
Finally, for disagreements that can’t be definitively settled with statistics or evidence, making a convincing argument may depend on engaging the audience’s values. For example, researchers have conducted a number of studies where they’ve asked people of different political backgrounds to rank their values. 最后，对于完全不能靠数据或证据解决的不同意见来说，给出令人信服的观点可能在于抓住受众所在乎的东西。例如，研究人员进行了一些研究，他们询问了不同政治背景的人们，让他们对自己的价值观进行排位。
Liberals in these studies, on average, rank fairness— here meaning whether everyone is treated in the same way—above loyalty. In later studies, researchers attempted to convince liberals to support military spending with a variety of arguments. 平均来看，在这项研究中自由党人士认为，人人平等比忠诚更重要。在之后的研究中，研究者们试图用各种观点说服自由派人士支持军费开支。
These can help you make your own arguments and reasoning more convincing and sometimes, you may even end up being the one changing your mind. 这些可以帮助你完善自己的观点和推理，甚至有时候，最终改变你想法的人可能就是你自己。 Remark：一切权益归TED所有，更多TED相关信息可至官网www.ted.com查询！