【双语社评】昨夜美国突然变脸，中国将如何应对？
白宫北京时间29日晚上发声明说，特朗普总统决定对从中国进口的500亿美元商品征收25%的关税，其中包括与“中国制造2025”相关的技术，有关清单将在6月15日公布。另外，对中国向美国的投资限制和加强对中国的出口管制措施将于6月30日公布。
白宫北京时间29日晚上发声明说，特朗普总统决定对从中国进口的500亿美元商品征收25%的关税，其中包括与“中国制造2025”相关的技术，有关清单将在6月15日公布。另外，对中国向美国的投资限制和加强对中国的出口管制措施将于6月30日公布。
这不仅是让中国惊讶，而且肯定也是会让全世界为之诧异的声明。中美不到两周前刚刚在华盛顿就搁置贸易战达成框架协议，双方发表了联合声明，美方宣布搁置对中国产品加征关税的计划。美国商务部长罗斯计划6月2日至4日访问中国，进一步商谈落实该框架协议。在这之间什么也没有发生，但是白宫突然就变卦了。
美方想重新开打贸易战？显然不是。应该是经过白宫的内斗，强硬派观点占了上风，为得到更多好处，又抛出新的要价筹码，进一步向中国挥舞大棒施压。
不能不说，今天的世界面临一个极不确定的美国政府。已经达成的伊朗核协议、巴黎气候协定它都宣布退出了，将要举行的美朝峰会它一会儿说举行，一会儿说不举行，然而转瞬之间又宣布举行了。抬高要价是华盛顿这样做的共同逻辑。从这个意义上说，华盛顿如今反悔刚与中国达成的贸易框架协议，也就不奇怪了。
白宫的最新宣布尤其释放了一个信号，中美贸易摩擦将是长期的，这很可能不是一个一次性就能谈成的贸易协定可以加以长期管控的，至少在特朗普政府期间，美方有可能不断提高要价。
好在中美协议还没有开始落实，美方出尔反尔，展现了它同中国处理贸易问题的一种方式。我们相信，中国政府应当有智慧和能力加以应对。
美方搞错了一点，那就是贸易战不是一般的战争。后者可以打到对方的国土上，如果顺利的话，甚至可以有“零伤亡”的奇迹。但是贸易战一定是相互损失的，一方对一方压倒性胜利的贸易战决不会有，更何况当美国面对中国这个市场规模与它差不多的对手时。
罗斯几天后就要来中国。按说如果美方已经决定对中国产品加征关税，双方就不用谈了，直接准备打一场“史诗级的贸易战”就可以了。但美国代表团还是要来，看来中美要从一开始互相亮棍子，到中间坐下来谈，再进入边亮棍子边谈判的新阶段了。
然而白宫的新姿态告诉我们，美方的要价是随行就市、水涨船高的。与这样的政府举行谈判，唯一要做的就是坚守底线，决不退让。
中国在一开始就表明了不想打贸易战，但也决不怕打的坚定立场，我们今天的态度一如既往。面对美方谈成了框架协议后还能反悔的新情况，相信中国政府会用两手对付它的两手，陪它慢慢玩。
可以肯定地说，如果美国6月15日出台对500亿美元包括科技产品在内的中国商品加征关税的方案，意味着之前达成的什么协议都将失效，中国必将对等反击，中美从此进入全面贸易战模式。
从大幅扩大向中国出口的前景重新回到被中国加征报复性关税的贸易战，这对美方同样是天旋地转的过山车，美国的农民、汽车生产商、能源开采者都将无所适从。白宫咄咄逼人的背后，是这些难以驾驭内乱的空虚。中国人对此看得清清楚楚，我们因此更有决心对华盛顿强硬政策奉陪到底。
以美国的实力做后盾，可以用强硬政策包打天下，这是今日白宫的错觉。要谈判就要有相互妥协的诚意，就要在已经达成的协议基础上相向而行。达成一个协议，然后就提高要价，力图再要一个对自己更有利的协议，这不是文明世界的规则，中国也决不会做惯美国这个坏习惯的配合者。
（社评原标题：美方出尔反尔，中国不会随之起舞）
英文全文
The Trump administration said on Tuesday that it would proceed with plans to impose a series of punitive trade-related measures aimed at China next month. The statement said the US would levy 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion in imported Chinese goods, and will target items "containing industrially significant technology" related to the "Made in China 2025" program. The new tariffs will be announced June 15.
White House officials said the Trump administration would move forward with restrictions on Chinese investment and on the access of Chinese companies and investors to American technology. Those restrictions will be announced by June 30.
The statement is nothing less than shocking for both China and the world as it was two weeks ago that both countries had reached a framework agreement on their economic and trade issues, while pledging not to engage in a trade war and to end slapping new tariffs on each other.
It was also announced that US Department of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is scheduled to visit Beijing next week to continue discussions on the economic and trade issues. The White House has just made an abrupt change on the deal right when the situation was taking a turn for the better for both sides.
Does the US want to reignite the trade war with China? Obviously not. It's likely that White House hardliners now have the whip in their hands after internal debate, and have proposed new tariffs on Chinese imports in an effort to apply more pressure.
The world faces an extremely mercurial White House administration. The Trump administration recently quit the Iran nuke deal and last year exited the Paris Agreement. It has also gone back and forth on the Trump-Kim summit. The fundamental logic of Washington is to raise the stakes in their negotiations with other countries. From that perspective, it is not abnormal that they would rescind its trade framework agreement with China.
Tuesday's statement sends a clear message from Washington that the Sino-US trade dispute will be a long-term issue. It is not a problem that can be solved with a once-and-for-all agreement. It is expected the Trump administration will continue to raise the stakes in their future talks with China.
Fortunately, the China-US trade agreement has yet to be implemented. With the US going back on its word, they have displayed one of their methods on how they deal with China-US trade issues. The Chinese government has the ability and wisdom to handle such situations.
The US could have trouble understanding the difference between a trade war and a real war. It is possible to win an actual war without casualties, but that wouldn't happen in a trade war.
There is no such thing as a landslide victory in a trade war, and trade losses can be guaranteed for everyone involved. This principle applies to the US as well, especially when confronting China, a country as strong as the US in terms of market size.
In a few days, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will arrive in Beijing. If by then the US has decided to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, then it would be superfluous for both sides yet again to discuss the trade dispute. Let them prepare for an "epic trade war."
The US delegation has not announced a cancellation of the upcoming visit. The US learned that its trade showdown with China did not work well in the previous talks, forcing them to return to the negotiating table. As Ross' arrival draws near, it seems that Sino-US trade talks have entered a new stage where the White House has now decided to use a higher level of toughness and bargaining chip negotiating to fight for a more favorable agreement.
This latest statement from Washington reveals a US side unwilling to keep their word on any agreement as it could fluctuate according to market conditions. As a result, China must remain steadfast with its bottom line and take a firm stance to safeguard national interest in the coming trade talks.
China has demonstrated that it does not want a trade war, while at the same time revealing that it is not afraid of one either. China's attitude on a trade war remains the same and will always be consistent. The Chinese government will have the necessary measures in place to deal with a US withdrawal from any settled agreement. If the US wants to play games, then China would be more than willing to play along and do so until the very end.
A full-scale trade war would be inevitable if the US imposes $50 billion in tariffs on imported Chinese goods and tech products beginning June 15. The move would also mean that any previous agreements reached by both sides would be rendered invalid, and China would then respond with similar punitive measures.
The sudden switch from guaranteed exports to China to a full-blown trade war must be a painful rollercoaster of a ride for the US.
Almost immediately, farmers, automobile manufacturers, and the nation's energy workforce would be at risk. Behind Washington's tough façade lies its failure to handle divided opinions within their Oval Office, and China is fully aware of this.
If the US continues to take this same protectionist stance and implements stronger trade policies regardless of opposition from Beijing, then China is confident it can fight to the end.
Washington suffers from a delusion whereby it feels the US is strong enough to force other countries to accept their unreasonable demands. The US needs to show a level of sincere compromise when negotiating, and meet China halfway by addressing their concerns and agreements previously reached.
The rules of any civilized society mandate that one country should not tolerate the actions of another country that randomly violates any agreement or treaty. Breaking a promise for the purposes of landing a better deal is a bad habit for Washington to develop, and it is something China won't allow.
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