【双语社评】日欧签EPA，没谁愿做美国的“伪军”
The EU and Japan signed the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on Tuesday, which will eliminate tariffs on 99 percent of their goods after taking effect. It has attracted wide attention as the US government launches a trade war against nearly the whole world. Tokyo and Brussels have been negotiating the EPA for five years, but its signing is interpreted by many as a move to pressure the US.
欧盟和日本星期二签署经济伙伴关系协定(EPA)，一旦生效，日欧99%的产品最终将相互零关税。在特朗普政府几乎与全世界大打贸易战的时候，日欧EPA的签署颇受关注。尽管双方为这一协定已经谈判了5年，但很多人从该协定中读出“对美国的压力”。
Signing the EPA allows Japan and the EU to gain more confidence in face of the trade war by the Trump administration and should prompt Americans to wonder: Will the trade war isolate Washington?
这可能不是一种凭空想象。不难想见，签署该协定使日欧在面对特朗普政府的贸易战时多了一分自信，这一协定也会让更多美国人闪过这样的念头：贸易战是否会让华盛顿陷入孤立呢？
A trade war is used to pursue self-interest through coercing and exhausting others. It is undoubtedly not very efficient compared with cooperation and consultation. The trade war at present is small in scope, but it demonstrates a mindset that runs counter to globalization. The world must choose between globalization and protectionism.
贸易战是通过相互恫吓和消耗来争取己方利益，与通过合作和协商实现利益相比，前者无疑是低效的。贸易战目前实际开展的规模还不大，但它展现了与全球化逆向而动的思路，未来一段时间是不同思维的激烈博弈期，世界面临继续全球化还是朝着保护主义退潮的选择。
As the staunchest ally of the US, Japan has made a low-key response to Trump's tariff threats. But its persistence in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the EPA clearly indicates that Japan will protect its trade interests and won't trample on the multilateral trade system as Washington has been doing.
日本是美国最铁杆的政治、安全盟友，它对特朗普政府关税政策的公开回应相对低调。但它对TPP的坚持和对日欧EPA的签署再清楚不过展示了自己的态度：它会维护自己的贸易利益，而且它不想跟着华盛顿一起踹多边贸易体系一脚。
The EPA suggests that free trade will go forward even without US participation. It may slow down, but won't step back in an earth-shaking manner. If the US deems the trade war as its primary way of communicating, it will unavoidably isolate itself.
日欧EPA显示，即使没有华盛顿的参与，自由贸易还会继续往前走，即使它的速度慢下来，但不会颠覆性大倒退。如果贸易战成为美国的首要对外沟通方式，它慢慢自我孤立不可避免，美国将成为自由贸易海洋中保护主义的“美国岛”。
The rest of the world didn't intend to unite against the US. But Washington put itself in an adversarial position to all others so that any of their moves would look like they are working together against the US.
世界本来没想联合抗美，但华盛顿把自己置于与全世界作对的位置上，使得其他国家哪怕彼此抛个眼神，交头接耳，都看上去像在联合对付它。
Japan and the EU are seemingly engaged in a silent anti-US demonstration by enhancing bilateral free trade. And more such cases will arise.
日欧就像是在做通过加强彼此自由贸易无声抗议美国的示范。疑似联手对抗美国的双边及多边活动今后将层出不穷。
The economies of the EU and Japan combined make up 30 percent of the world's total and they are both among the largest trading partners with the US. If they waive tariffs for each other while their trade disputes with the US escalate and tariff as well as non-tariff barriers increase, their bilateral goods trade will grow to exceed their trade with the US. This may have limited impact on the US. But when such impacts accumulate, it will overwhelm the superpower. US media will track and magnify the impacts, shaking the US will for trade protectionism.
欧盟和日本的经济规模加起来约占全球30%，听上去蛮吓人的。双方都在美国的最大贸易伙伴名单上。想想看，如果日欧相互降为零关税，而它们与美国贸易摩擦不断加剧，关税及非关税壁垒增多，那么日欧货物流通的增长速度超过它们与美国产品的交易增长速度将会成为趋势。也许这一件事的影响有限，伤不到美国的根本。但再强大的美国也经不起这种负影响的不断累积。敏感的美国舆论会跟踪、放大这些负影响的发展，导致美国整体贸易保护主义意志的动摇。
The Trump administration has started a protracted trade war that the US is bound to lose. Like previous traditional wars that it launched, Washington is confident at the beginning that it can swiftly crush opponents with its advantage in strength. But when the aggression turns into long exhausting warfare, it will be dragged into a strategic disadvantage.
特朗普政府开启了一场一旦演变成持久对抗它必将输掉的贸易战争。美国像所有传统战争发动者一样，一开始实力雄厚，自信爆棚，以为可以迅速压垮对手，取得战争胜利。而一旦侵略演化成持久的消耗战，战略主动就逐渐变成战略被动。
The Japan-EU EPA is the latest sign that the world isn't overwhelmed by Trump's trade threats. So far, few countries have yielded to US trade pressure while most have imposed retaliatory tariffs. In the meantime, countries are increasing their collaboration on trade.
日欧EPA是世界没有被特朗普贸易战吓倒、各方准备按照既有战略处理贸易关系的最新迹象。到目前为止，鲜有哪个国家对来自美国的贸易施压忍气吞声，对美加征关税实施对等报复成为各国不约而同的反应。与此同时，各方横向加强贸易联系的动向正在形成。
Such global resistance is an instinctive reaction to trade hegemony. The resistance doesn't need someone to organize it. The Trump administration has significantly underestimated the resistance that his bullying will encounter.
这样的世界性抵抗不用有谁号召和组织，它们是这个时代对贸易霸凌主义的条件反射，也是坚定的法则。特朗普政府大大低估了它搞霸凌主义遭遇全球抵抗的风险。
There are countries which hit back with tough measures, or quiet defiance, but none that side with the Trump administration's trade hegemony. When Washington's advantage is diminishing quickly, how long can the Trump administration hang on?
有的国家强硬回击，有的国家软顶，就是没有国家帮着特朗普政府的贸易霸凌政策扛旗，给它当“伪军”。美国的优势将面临对存量的严重消耗，而无法得到有效的补充。看看特朗普政府能够坚持多久。
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