【双语社评】对华贸易战在美国形成强烈排异效应
According to data released by the US Commerce Department on Wednesday, the US trade deficit increased 9.5 percent to $50.1 billion in July, widening for a second straight month and surging to a five-month high since the trade war started.
美国商务部星期三公布的数据显示，美国贸易赤字7月较上月增长9.5%，达到501亿美元。这是美国贸易赤字连续第二个月扩大，创下贸易战爆发5个月来的新高。
Ironically, the US trade deficit with China swelled 10 percent to a record $36.8 billion, a head-on blow to the US policies in the trade war.
尤其讽刺的是，美国对中国货物贸易逆差7月份大涨10%，达到创纪录的368亿美元。这个数字像是对美国贸易战政策的当头一棒。
The shortfall is a result of the country's economic structure and a strong dollar. As the US economy turns for the better and the dollar strengthens, imports are inevitably expanded. That the White House raises tariffs will only add costs to US imports without curbing consumers' demands for imported goods.
美国对外贸易逆差是美经济结构和强势美元导致的。美国经济好转，美元汇率上升，必然带动扩大进口，白宫提高关税只会增加美国进口的成本，但无法消除进口背后的那些消费需求，因此基本属于瞎折腾。
When the import and export data for July was released, it was just one day before the end of tariff hearings on the $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The White House threatened to implement the proposed tariffs right away, but most of the tariffs target daily consumer goods of Americans.
7月份美国进出口数据出来，正值美就对2000亿中国输美产品加征关税听证截止日的前一天。白宫威胁准备立即让该征税计划生效，但这一计划针对的大部分是美国民生所需的消费品。
The trade war against China launched by an aggressive US will not go as smoothly as the White House had expected. The July data proved once again that trade between China and the US benefits both, even trade in which the US has a deficit with China. If Washington wants China to suffer, it will feel the pain as well.
嚣张的美国对华贸易战决不会像白宫预期的那样顺利。7月份的数据再次证明了，中美贸易是互利的，即使美国的逆差部分，也是互利的。美方要割中方一块肉，它会发现自己的身体同样疼。
The US government sounds heroic announcing to the American people that it is going to put an end to China earning $500 billion every year from the US. However, this is nonsense that goes against the logical functioning of the world economy in a globalized era. In the beginning, the White House did not realize this, and now it finds itself in an embarrassing position.
向美国人民宣传，说中国每年从美国赚5000多亿美元，我们这届政府要把这种局面扳回来，这听上去充满英雄主义气概，但这是个虚假的故事，违反全球化时代世界经济业已形成的基本逻辑。一开始白宫可能是没搞明白，大话说出去了，到逐渐搞明白，又已经骑虎难下。
If Washington insists on the extreme path of a trade war, it will encounter great opposition. Besides frontal opponents like China, the internal structure of the US economy will also reject it.
如果华盛顿坚持贸易战的极端路线，那么会有无数因素与这条路线作对。除了中国等正面对抗者，美国经济的内在结构也会对它产生强烈的排异效应。
Both the Chinese and US economies are tied to the global value chain. Such a structure can't be easily changed by a trade war unless the US makes the rash decision to break the global value chain.
中美经济与全球价值链绑在一起，贸易战无法轻易改变这种结构，除非美国要做些“自杀式”的决定，来拆散全球生产链。
Trade stems from the public. The government can only play a guiding role rather than imposing peremptory norms. Now with planned-economy directives, Washington is trying to stipulate the market factors in China-US trade.
贸易首先是民间的东西，政府只能引导，不能强制规范。华盛顿现在是以计划经济的指令性方式规定中美贸易的市场性指标。
If the US economy continues to expand, its trade deficit is likely to increase. Only when the economy experiences a downturn, with a weakening dollar and a drop in domestic demand, can the trade deficit narrow. But at that time, the White House will likely have lost most of its courage for the trade war. This trade war will not go anywhere. It is little more than a propaganda tool in the US midterm elections.
如果美国接下来的经济形势继续好下去，它的贸易赤字很可能要继续扩大。只有它的经济往下走，美元也疲软了，国内需求也降低了，逆差才会自然缩小。不过到那时候，白宫对外打贸易战的底气也会比现在掉一大半。这场贸易战注定要虎头蛇尾，它的实际价值是给美国中期选举增添了一场宣传战。
US trade data shows that the trade war is exhausting the US. With the looming imposition of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, the negative economic impact will worsen. But the decline in trade will affect both China and the US. It is not only China that will bear the consequences.
我们需要做的就是同美国这样耗下去。随着2000亿美元关税的加上，影响肯定会上升，但由于贸易减少对中美双方都有冲击，美方能忍受，中方就能忍受，这不会是中方被动挨打的过程。
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