【双语社评】美企设在中国的工厂为何搬不回去
"It would not be profitable to build the Focus Active in the U.S. given an expected annual sales volume of fewer than 50,000 units," automaker Ford Motor Company said in a statement on Sunday.
美国汽车业巨头福特公司9日在一份声明中说，鉴于在美国的年销量不超过5万辆，在美国生产福特福克斯(Focus Active)不会有利可图。
US President Donald Trump tweeted earlier on Sunday that "'Ford has abruptly killed a plan to sell a Chinese-made small vehicle in the US because of the prospect of higher US Tariffs.' CNBC. This is just the beginning. This car can now be built in the USA and Ford will pay no tariffs!" Ford quickly clarified the facts, evidently rebuffing Trump's tweet.
9日早些时候，特朗普总统在一个推文中称：“CNBC说，因为美国的关税将要提高，福特公司砍掉了在美国销售中国产汽车的计划。这就是个开始哦，福特以后会在美国生产了。”福特迅速澄清，被认为是对总统推文的“打脸”。
Likewise, tech giant Apple Inc. wrote a letter to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, saying that a proposed 25 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports would cover a "wide range of Apple products."
无独有偶，苹果公司日前致信美国贸易代表莱特希泽，表示美国新的针对中国产品加征关税计划可能影响苹果智能手表、无线耳机等一系列产品。
In another tweet, Trump told Apple to make their products in the US instead of China. Apple hasn't responded.
特朗普总统8日在一个推文中呼吁苹果将在中国的生产迁回美国，苹果尚未对总统的主张做出回应。
According to the US media, the price of iPhone may increase to $2,000 if the company does as told.
不过美国媒体的分析指出，苹果如果那样做，将面临手机成本的大幅上升，售价将高达2000美元。
The multinational companies that produce automobile and mobile phones have different manufacturing and sales layouts. Car manufacturers tend to produce their products where they are sold, while mobile phone manufacturers optimize their production chain costs worldwide. That's the natural law of economic globalization which can't be easily changed by a country's government.
汽车和手机是两大类型消费产品，生产这两类商品的跨国公司往往有着不同的全球产销布局原则，汽车厂商一般倾向于在哪销售在哪生产，手机厂商则倾向于在全球范围内进行生产链成本优化，力争产品的最低价格。这已是全球化时代经济的自然法则，不是一国政府想变就能变的。
The White House lacks understanding of the global production and value chains. "Make your products in the United States instead of China" seems naive. Instead of coercing companies to follow demands, imposing tariffs will only scare them off.
白宫显然对全球生产链及价值链的了解太少了，把工厂迁回美国的口号显得过于天真。加征关税不是一条运筹帷幄的鞭子，可以把企业的羊群赶到一个指定的方向，它更像突入羊群的狼，只会把羊群惊得四散奔逃。
Simply making US companies produce in the US can't deal with the complicated global industry today. We have also learnt from history that neither side will gain in a trade war.
让美国厂商回美国生产，这个看似很简单且有道理的想法，是个简单的掰手指头算术思维，它根本应对不了今天全球化微积分水平的复杂产业布局。而打贸易战必将导致两败俱伤，这是对人类现代通商无数经验教训反复总结的至理名言。这个道理在逐渐显示它的威力。
China is the world's largest automobile and mobile phone market. Setting tariff barriers between Beijing and Washington won't make US companies give up on China for the sake of their own country. As long as China doesn't make things hard for US companies, it's unavoidable that they will place production operations in China. The Chinese market can help them make money, but the White House can't.
中国是全球最大的汽车和手机市场，在中美之间设置严重贸易壁垒，不可能让美国厂商响应白宫号召做保美弃中的二选一，从长远看，只要中国不给那些厂商穿小鞋，它们把更多生产放到中国来将是大势所趋。它们要挣钱，白宫给不了它们，但中国市场可以给它们。
Most American high-tech companies will face difficulties if they leave China. The larger the market is, the higher return the companies will get from their research and development. High-tech companies, if they can't grow to be giant, don't usually survive for long, and it would be fatal for many of them to lose the Chinese market.
离开中国市场，美国大多数高科技企业将面临困难，因为市场越大，它们的高投入研发才能得到越大的回报，市场缩小将对它们新的研发投入形成打击。做不大的高科技企业往往难以持久，一旦失去中国市场对美国很多高科技企业将是致命的。
There hasn't been a previous US government that dares to instruct multinational companies in production layouts, and the current administration has overestimated its executive power. The global industrial chain today is formed by market rules established over decades and can't be easily changed by one government.
从来没有一届美国政府敢于对美跨国公司的生产布局进行“指令性指导”，现任美国政府严重高估了其行政权力对调整全球产业布局所能发挥的作用。今天的全球产业链是在最近几十年按照市场规律自然形成的，其惯性之强大绝非一国政府的权力所能匹敌。
It would be the White House's dream to expect that the US is not only the world's technology and financial center, but also the world's factory that sells its products globally. If the US doesn't want to wake up from this dream, then the outside world has to step in and rouse Washington.
所以，美国不仅是全球技术中心、金融中心，而且重新成为世界工厂，各国不仅使用美国品牌的产品，那些产品还都在美国本土制造，向全球倾销，这只能是21世纪白宫的一个梦。这个梦实在太美了，做了它就不想醒来。那么只能由来自外部的触动唤醒了。
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