【专访】“简史三部曲”作者：永远不要低估人类的愚蠢程度

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从讲述人类在几十万年间自猿类走到今天的《人类简史》，到审视千百年后人类终极命运的《未来简史》，再到直面21世纪人类所面临的重大现实性议题的《今日简史》，以色列历史学家尤瓦尔·赫拉利的作品虽不乏争议，但其宏大、独特的视野和丰富的想象力不能不让人叹服。

尤瓦尔·赫拉利。  于天骄 摄

10月下旬，尤瓦尔·赫拉利在来北京宣传新书期间，接受了《环球时报》英文版记者的采访。

他认为，“构建和平需要一群智者协作才能达到，但有时只要一个傻子就足够发起一场战争。”人类的愚蠢决定，将导致战争以前所未有的恶化形式卷土重来——尤其是核战争。

"It takes a lot of wise people to cooperate to make peace, but sometimes it is enough to have just one fool in order to make war."

"if humans start making unwise decisions, then wars can return and even in worse form than ever before, especially a nuclear war."

视频制作：于天骄

许多人忘记了核战争的危险？

一个傻子就足以发动一场战争

GT：美国总统特朗普近日宣布将退出《中导条约》，同时有报道称美国要全面升级核武库。您在《今日简史》中表示，“一些民族主义领导人虽然嘴上咄咄逼人，但对于实际发动战争却非常谨慎”。特朗普会成为一个例外吗？

GT: US President Donald Trump recently said he intended to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. In your latest book, you said "some world leaders tend to talk loud but are very careful about actually launching wars". Do you think Trump is becoming an exception? 

赫拉利：我个人不了解特朗普，也不是美国问题专家。目前，世界仍处于我们曾看到的最和平时期，更多人死于暴饮暴食而非人类暴力。这是非常了不起的成就。但我们要谨记，这并非源自神赐的奇迹，而是人类做出明智决定，尤其是广泛的国际合作的结果。一旦人类开始轻率做决定，国际合作恶化，那么战争就会卷土重来。

Harari: I don't know about Trump in person. I am not specialist on the US. But so far, the world is still in the most peaceful era that we have ever seen. More people die today from eating too much than from human violence, which is an amazing achievement. But we need to remember that the current era of peace is not the result of some divine miracle. It is the result of humans making wise decisions, especially about greater international cooperation. 

If humans start making unwise decisions and if international cooperation deteriorates, war can return and even in a worse form than ever before, especially nuclear war.

如今，许多人都已忘记核战争的危险。但在上世纪五六十年代，每个人都非常担心核战争不可避免，最终冷战以和平方式结束。1945年以来没有任何国家再使用核武器，人们几乎认为和平理所当然，并已遗忘过去。可是，危险仍在，如果我们不谨慎行事，那么更紧张的国际局势就有可能带来一场最严重的冷战，甚至第三次世界大战。

By now, many people around the world forget about the danger of nuclear war. In the 1950s and 1960s, everybody was very much afraid that nuclear war is inevitable. But the Cold War ended peacefully and nobody used nuclear weapons since 1945. So people almost take it for granted and forget about it. But the danger is still there. If we are not careful, the result of greater international tensions might be a worst Cold War or even the eruption of the WWIII. 

就战争而言，智慧和愚蠢之间存在一种内在失衡。和平需要很多有智慧的人共同努力，但有时，一个傻子就足以发动一场战争。我并非特指任何一位领导人。世界的这种不幸的失衡属性使开展合作比发动战争更难。

When it comes to war, there is a built-in imbalance between wisdom and stupidity. It takes a lot of wise people to cooperate to make peace. But sometimes it is enough to have just one fool in order to make war. I am not referring to any leader in particular. The unfortunate imbalance in nature of the world makes it more difficult to have cooperation than war.

GT：我们现在有足够多明智的政治家吗？

GT: Do we have enough wise politicians now?

赫拉利：当下政治智慧稀缺，尤其因为政客们对未来缺乏积极有意义的远见。

Harari: I think political wisdom now is in short supply, especially because politicians lack a meaningful and positive vision for the future. 

审视当今世界，你会看到许多国家的政治人物无法为未来做出有意义的构想，例如：三四十年后我们将走到哪一步？相反，他们提供的唯一东西是对过去的怀旧幻想。他们想象过去的某个黄金时代，并向人们承诺将让昔日重现。这只是幻想。过去根本没有那么美好——我是历史学家，我可以告诉你，生活在过去并没有那么多乐趣可言，何况我们无论如何也无法回到过去。

When you look at the world today, you see that in many countries, politicians are no longer able to create meaningful visions for the future. Where will we be in 30 or 40 years? Instead, the only thing they offer people is nostalgic fantasies about the past. 

They imagine some golden era in the past and promise people that we'll go back there. This is just a fantasy. Both because the past wasn't great at all - I am a historian, I can tell you, it wasn't a lot of fun to live in the past - and because in any case we cannot go back there.

新技术正在彻底改变世界，尤其是人工智能（AI）和生物科技。面对未来，我们需要新构想，并且要将新技术和气候变化带来的新危险考虑进来。不幸的是，世界上太多政客要么不了解这些新挑战，要么不知道如何应对。

New technologies are completely changing the world, especially artificial intelligence (AI) and biotechnology. We need to build a new vision for the future, which takes into account the new technologies and the new danger of climate change. 

Unfortunately too many politicians around the world either don't understand the new challenges or they don't know what to do about it. So they retreat to these nostalgic fantasies. This is a great danger. Unless we are able to formulate a global positive vision for the future, we will not be able to deal with the problems of nuclear war, climate change and technological destruction.

GT：眼下很多人为美中贸易战担忧，有人说它像一场较量哪方先让步的“胆小鬼游戏”，您认为会如何发展？

GT: In China, many people are concerned about the trade war between China and the US. Where do you think it is headed? 

赫拉利：目前的趋势是孤立主义上升，合作减少，从贸易开始，然后蔓延到其他领域。更诡异的是，这并非仅发生在中美之间，目前的美国正在攻击其盟友，破坏其与加拿大、墨西哥、西欧、日本和韩国之间的传统同盟关系。

Harari: At present the trend is greater isolationism and less cooperation, first in trade and then in other fields. 

What I find even more peculiar is not the trade war between the US and China, which you can say it's natural because they are rivals in many ways, but the current US government attacking its own allies. It's undermining the traditional alliances that the US had with Canada, Mexico, Western Europe, Japan and South Korea. 

我真的不理解美国为何这么做，但结果是，过去几十年几代人建立的整个合作架构正失去平衡并遭到破坏。即便美国改弦易辙，人们也不太可能再信任它。假设特朗普在2020年选举失败，新总统迅速改变政策并试图加强与加拿大、德国及中国的关系，届时人们会说，谁知道再下届总统会做什么？如果每次不得不等待4年才能知道发生什么，那么在任何领域都无法进行长远规划。

I really don't understand why the US government is doing it. But the result is the entire structure of cooperation, that was built over the decades, in the last generations, is being destabilized and undermined. Even if the US government changes its policies now, people are unlikely to trust it again, the way they did before. Let's say in 2020, Trump loses the election, the new US president does a U-turn and tries to strengthen ties with Canada, Germany and China. This time, people will not be able to trust the US like before. Because they will say, how can we know what the next president will do? If we have to wait every four years to know what will happen, we cannot build anything long-term. 

我认为做出改变的方式之一是，打造一种相对不以美国为中心的国际合作和信任机制。所有其他国家都不坐等美国领导它们，而是构建一个无论谁成为美国总统都能正常运作的全球共识。

The basic trust between countries is being undermined, not just between the US and China, but also between the US and Canada, the US and Germany. This is very problematic and I guess one of the ways forward is to forge international cooperation and trust which is less focused on the US. All the other countries don't wait for the US to lead them and create global consensus, but to build a global consensus that can function no matter who is the president of the US.

GT：可是，今天依然有相当多外国媒体和政客无视中国的发展，而是紧盯与北京的意识形态分歧。您如何看待这一现象？

GT: Quite a few foreign media, politicians and observers tend to ignore China's development over the past decades while focusing on their ideological divergences with Beijing. What's your take on the issue?

赫拉利：这种状况正在发生变化。每个人都意识到中国的巨大发展，如今中国无论在经济还是政治上都变得与美国平起平坐。人类21世纪的未来在很大程度上取决于这两个超级大国间的关系。倘若两国进入军备竞赛或新冷战，尤其是在人工智能领域，那么它将是人类面临的最严峻状况。

Harari: I think it's changing now. Everybody is realizing the immense development of China, that is becoming both economically and politically equal of the US. And the future of humankind in the 21st century depends to a large extent on the type of relations between these two superpowers. If they get into an arms race or a new kind of Cold War, especially in fields like AI, it will be the worst thing for the world. If there is an AI arms race, it means nobody will be able to regulate AI. Nobody would like to stop dangerous developments because they would fear the other side winning. This is the greatest danger that we are now facing. 

我希望两国能克服意识形态分歧和紧张关系，至少一定程度上在对人类生存至关重要的领域开展合作。上个月（9月）我在美国，眼下我在中国，我正尝试告诉人们：看，我并非研究美国或中国的专家，我也知道双方都有合理关切，但你们需要在某种程度上将视线投向这些矛盾之外。就真正的大问题而言，比如气候变化或人工智能，除非两国找到合作方式，否则整个人类都会遭殃。

I hope that the US and China are able to overcome ideological differences, their tensions and so forth. At least to some extent, they should be able to cooperate in fields that are crucial for the survival of humankind. 

At present, tensions between the US and China have increased and there is less and less cooperation. I don't know how this can be reversed. Last month, I was in the US and now I am in China. What I try to do is to tell people, look, I am not an expert on US or China, there are legit concerns on both sides. But you need to, to some extent, look beyond all these controversies. When it comes to the really big issues, climate change or AI, unless we find a way to cooperate, it will be very bad for all of mankind.

越来越多政客宣扬“本国优先”？

需要改变这种“对话模式”

GT：中国古语称，“天下大势，分久必合，合久必分”。作为历史学家，您如何看待世界战争与和平的周期规律？

GT: An old Chinese saying goes: "Those long divided shall be united; those long united shall be divided: such is the way of the universe." It describes the cycle of intense warfare at regular intervals. As a historian, what is your view about this cycle?

赫拉利：这话并非完全正确。回顾历史长期发展趋势，你将看到“合”比“分”的力量更强大。是的，你看到帝国起起伏伏，看到合作后狼烟又起，但从长期看，你会看到更大的趋势是合作。

Harari: It's not completely accurate. If you look at the long-term development of history, you see that unity, in the long run, is stronger than division. Yes you see the empires rise and fall. You see cooperation and war again. But over the long run, you see greater and greater cooperation. 

一万年前，人类被分成众多几乎没有任何联系的小部落。如今，全世界是一个文明的一部分，国家间有非常紧密的经济联系和不少政治文化协议。当然，分歧依然存在，但最大的分歧通常存在于家庭成员之间。我们与家人之间的“斗争”远多于与陌生人。国际舞台上也是如此。

10,000 years ago, mankind was divided into many small tribes, which had very little connection or cooperation. Now the entire world is part of a single civilization with very strong economic ties, a lot of agreements about political or cultural issues. Of course, there are disagreements, but the greatest disagreement we have is usually with our family members. We fight with our own family much more than with complete strangers. In the international arena, it is also like that. 

GT：过去几十年，人们纷纷讨论全球化的好处，如今反全球化力量快速上升。是什么导致了这样的剧变？

GT: Decades ago, people were discussing the advantages of globalization. But now a growing number of divergences among countries across the globe are seen and anti-globalization forces are rising. What caused such a dramatic change?

赫拉利：原因太多。正如所有重大历史性发展一样，全球化并非完美无瑕。在20世纪，全球化的领军者多为西方国家，尤以美国最突出，之前是英国。它们从全球化、自由贸易等领域中获益颇丰，但现在这些国家环顾四周，意识到“我们或许也曾受益，但中国等其他国家的受益程度其实远超我们，（所以）我们不再那么想要它了”。如今，那些曾经的全球化领军者反而成为反全球化的领军者。

Harari: There are too many reasons. 

Like every major historical development, globalization is not all good. It has its down side. Some people lose their livelihood. Once people move from a dream about globalization to the reality, they realize it's not as good as we thought. There are problems, so opposition is growing. 

In the 20th century, the leaders of globalization are mostly the Western powers, first and foremost the US, and previously Britain. They gained a lot from globalization, free trade and so forth. But now they look around and realize, "yes, maybe we gained, but actually other countries like China gained far more, we don't want it so much." Now the previous leader of globalization is becoming the leader of the forces opposing globalization. 

从长期看，包括美国人在内的每个人都应意识到，良好的全球关联符合所有人利益。倘若全球化分崩离析，大家都得吃苦头。这并非仅仅因为由此产生的经济困难，还因为我们在21世纪面临三大全球问题——核战争、生态崩溃和科技颠覆。缺乏全球合作，我们就无法解决这些问题中的任何一个。你不可能靠一个国家的力量应对气候变化，也不可能仅在一国内对人工智能和生物科技进行规范。这是比贸易更应引起美国关注的问题。

But I think in the long run, everybody including the Americans should realize that good global connections serve the interests of everybody. If globalization falls apart, everybody will suffer, including Americans, not just because of economic hardships, but also because the three major problems of the 21st century, our global problems-nuclear war, climate change and technological destruction. If we don't have global cooperation, we cannot solve any of these problems. You cannot deal with climate change on the level of a single nation, and also cannot regulate AI and biotechnology just in one country. 

GT：但未来开展有效合作的前景似乎有些悲观，越来越多的政客为赢得选举而宣扬“本国优先”。

GT: But the future outlook of effective cooperation seems to be a bit pessimistic because more and more politicians are advocating "their own country first." What do you think?

赫拉利：你说得对。这种状况正在发生，而且极其危险。当我说我们需要全球合作以解决全球问题时，无法确保人们真会这么做。历史上，人类破坏性的行为方式比比皆是。我希望我们能克服目前民族主义和孤立主义愈演愈烈的趋势，这正是我写这本书（《今日简史》）的目的——改变目前的对话模式。

Harari: I think you are right. This is really happening and is very dangerous. 

When I say we need global cooperation to solve global problems, it doesn't guarantee that people will actually do it. You have a lot of examples from history that people behave in destructive ways, in ways that don't really serve their best interests. So I hope we will be able to overcome this current trend of growing nationalism and isolationism. 

This is a part of what I try to do with my books - to change the conversation. 

那些民族主义政客试图通过谈论移民、恐怖主义、一个国家的工作流向另一个国家等话题来赢得支持，我想尝试改变这种对话并告诉人们，移民和恐怖主义都是重要问题，但不是最重要的问题。最重要的是核战争、生态崩溃和科技颠覆，应对这三大问题的唯一有效方式是全球合作。因此，如果你将票投给那些破坏全球合作的政客，或许能有效应对移民问题和恐怖主义，但注定会使我们无法应对气候变化和科技颠覆。

When you have all these nationalist politicians that try to convince people to support them by talking about things like immigration, terrorism, one country losing jobs to another country… I try to change the conversation and tell them, yes, immigration and terrorism are all important problems, but they are not our most important problems. The most important problems are nuclear war, climate change and technological destruction. The only way to do something effective about theses three problems is global cooperation. So if you vote for some nationalist politicians, who undermine global cooperation, maybe this is effective against immigration and terrorism. But this guarantees that we will not be able to solve climate change and technological destruction.

来源：环球时报－环球网

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