【双语社评】美拟扩大技术出口限制，中国需从容
环球时报GlobalTimes
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The Bureau of Industry and Security under the US Department of Commerce released an advance notice on Monday and are seeking public comment concerning likely the strictest ever technology export restriction. The planned export controls include 14 advanced technology categories such as artificial intelligence, microprocessors, quantum computing and robotics. The notice didn't refer specifically to China, but it is believed the restriction is primarily targeting the country.
美国商务部工业安全署星期一出台了一份大概是史上最严厉的技术出口管制先期通知，征询公众意见。计划进行管制的出口技术领域包括了人工智能、芯片、量子计算、机器人、面印和声纹技术等14个前沿科技类别。通知没有点中国的名字，但舆论的最初分析都认为它的首要出口管制方向就是中国。
US tech stocks suffered a fall on the same day, indicating that the Commerce Department's plan dealt a blow to the market.
同在星期一，美国科技公司的股票全线下跌，美商务部公布的计划给了市场信心最新一击。
It is a simple rule that the bigger the market, the more likely US high-tech companies can reap handsome returns, which is necessary to support research and development and maintain its leadership in the global technology field. In technology, market scale is closely connected to research capability, yet the US Commerce Department is directing US high-tech companies to beat competitors by cutting the market.
一个所有投资者都懂的道理是，市场越大，美国高科技公司越能收回丰厚的资金，从而支持新一轮的研发，保持全球领先地位。科研能力和市场规模在这里是绑定的关系。美商务部的新计划是要美国高科技公司走通过缩小市场来打击潜在竞争者、从而实现自保的另一条路。
This approach may be applicable to non-technology companies. But for science and technology research programs that are highly dependent on market return for sustainable growth, it is business suicide to abandon a market as big as China.
对于非高度市场竞争的科技公司来说，加上政府的支持，这不失为一种办法。但对于依靠大规模量产才能自我蓄能的科研项目来说，主动放弃中国这样的大市场，无异于自我断腕。
The US government's expansion of the export restriction list is out of fear of intellectual property "theft". It seems to US officials that the US will suffer losses as long as it engages in trade with other countries.
美向中国出口高技术零件，这是买卖，不是偷了吧？但美商务部大规模拉长技术出口限制的清单，其心理还是“防偷”，好像美国与外界接触，就是吃亏的。
Such a mentality will bring the US no good. In the era of globalization, the US has built success and retrieved benefits from combining the best various elements of the world. Now the US is changing the basic rules of globalization, and will inevitably incur great loss because of it.
这样的心态终将对美国有害无益。如今毕竟是全球化时代，美国的成功本质上是在全球化进程中的胜出，美国社会的福祉来源于对全球化各种要素的编织。对全球化的一些基本规则动刀，美国自己的损失不可避免，而且认定美国的损失会小于其他方，目前没有证据可以支持这样的估算。
China will face difficulties if the US expands export restrictions on technologies. But the results may not turn out as US policymakers imagined.
美若扩大技术出口限制，无疑会给中国造成一些困难，但这些困难将导致什么样的博弈结果，未必会符合美国这一规划编制者的想象。
The US has long restricted technological exports to China. Americans didn't lend much help to building China's scientific research capability. Chinese people made their own technological breakthroughs from national defense to civil use. That is to say, China's high-tech is generally Chinese people's own intellectual property. Instead of selling high-tech to China, the US forced China to develop high-tech itself.
首先，美国一直都在对中国进行技术出口限制，今天中国的科研能力构架肯定不是美国人帮着建立的，中国从国防到民用很多关键技术的突破，也是中国人自己搞出来的。也就是说，中国高科技在整体上的确属于中国人自己的“知识产权”，中国从美国买过一些东西，但中国高科技在更大程度上是“逼”出来的，而非买来的。
China's industrial and technological foundation can support the country in comprehensively developing homegrown technological programs. Compared with the time when China started the "two bombs, one satellite" project, the China-US technological gap is much smaller. China's development potential is unstoppable, and both countries will benefit if US companies join China's development progress. If US companies give it up, then both sides will bear the loss.
中国的工业和科技基础已经能够支持中国在各个方向上开展自主研发的工程，中国与美国的技术差距已经大大小于我们搞“两弹一星”的时代。中国释放发展潜力不可阻挡，美国公司参与中国的这一进程，双方都受益。美国公司放弃参与，双方的损失半斤八两。
The US doesn't have a monopoly on the world's high-tech regardless of its existing advanced technology. De-globalization disrupts the logic of world economic development, and won't win people's support. China's reciprocal technological exchanges with other countries will carry on.
美国技术先进，但它毕竟不是这个世界高新技术的垄断者。逆全球化而为将打乱世界经济业已形成的发展逻辑，难得人心，中国与其他国家互利共赢的技术交流还将继续。
Beijing needs to remain calm while Washington is impulsive. It has become a trend in the US to expand technological export restrictions against China, but it's uncertain to what extent Washington will enforce the restrictions. China shouldn't be swayed from the course of opening-up because of Washington's restrictions.
我们想在此提醒中国人，美方一段时间以来不断出台一些带有某种冲动色彩的计划，我们还需在对方冲动时，保持自己的冷静。美方扩大对华技术出口限制看来是大趋势，但鉴于上文所说的原因，美方的限制扩大到什么程度，是不确定的。从我方来说，无需就此与美方对着干，我们的对外开放决心不能因此而动摇。
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