Did Donald Trump keep his promise？

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Photo：BBC News

It's been four years since Donald Trump made a string of promises during his long 2016 campaign to be the 45th president of the United States. Four years later, his supporters often cite "promises made, promises kept" as a reason why they're backing him again.

Many of them made headlines - from banning all Muslims entering the US, to building a border wall paid for by Mexico.

But others went a little under the radar, like his pledge to eliminate the national debt.

Trump says he built the greatest ever US economy prior to the coronavirus outbreak .

01

Photo：Getty Images

It's true the economy was doing well prior to the pandemic - continuing a trend which began during the Obama administration - but there have been periods when it was much stronger.

The US economy was then hit by the biggest economic contraction ever recorded as a result of the pandemic. It has since bounced back strongly, but hasn't regained all its losses.

We've looked at the economy in six key charts.

Photo：BBC News

The latest numbers show economic output surged by an annualised 33% in the third quarter of 2020, following a record fall as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic.

The recovery, although strong, hasn't yet brought economic activity back to pre-pandemic levels.

Mr Trump has said the recent recovery in growth is "the biggest in the history of our country by almost triple...that's bigger than any nation".

Yes, it is the biggest quarterly increase, but by more like double - outdoing the previous peak of 16.7% in the first quarter of 1950.

However, Mr Trump's comparison with other countries isn't right. From July to September this year, the economy grew by 7.4% in the US (33.1% is the annualised figure). This is less than Germany, Italy and the eurozone as a whole.

If you look at economic growth from the start of the pandemic to the present, the US has done better than Europe but "worse that China and some other Asian economies" such as South Korea, says Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.

Photo：BBC News

Prior to the pandemic, President Trump claims to have delivered the lowest unemployment rate in half a century.

This is true. In February this year, the rate stood at 3.5%, the lowest for more than 50 years.

However, the Obama administration added more jobs to the economy, comparing similar time-frames.

Under Trump, in the three years prior to the pandemic, there were an additional 6.4 million jobs. In the last three years under Obama, seven million jobs were added.

As in many parts of the world, coronavirus lockdown measures very quickly led to soaring levels of unemployment in the US.

The rate jumped to 14.7% in April, the highest level since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The US Labor Department says more than 20 million people lost their jobs, eliminating a decade of employment gains in a single month.

Since the peak in April, unemployment has fallen back significantly to 7.9% in September.

02

Could Trump contest the result and other questions answered

Photo:Getty Images

"Could Donald Trump try to contest the results of the election?" 

Yes, he could.

Both candidates have a right to demand a recount in most states, usually if the result there is tight.

There's been a surge in postal voting this year, and it's also possible that the validity of these ballots could be challenged in court.

Both campaigns have said they're already preparing for legal disputes after election day.

When will we get a result and could it be contested?

These lawsuits could make their way up to the US Supreme Court - the ultimate legal authority in the US.

This happened in 2000, when the Supreme Court stopped a recount in Florida and ruled in favour of Republican George W Bush who became president.

"What influence does the national vote have on the way the electoral college votes?" 

US presidents are not decided by the national popular vote, but by winning in enough states.

The winner in each state gets the support of a number of electors based roughly on its population.

These electors meet a few weeks after polling day - forming the electoral college - to vote to officially nominate the next president.

To win the White House, 270 electoral votes are needed.

"What happens in Nebraska and Maine where the electoral college works differently?" 

Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that divide up their electoral votes.

In every other state, it's winner takes all - whether the margin is one or one million votes.

Maine and Nebraska instead divvy up their electoral votes - four and five respectively - based on the share of the popular vote each candidate receives.

These states allocate two electoral votes to the state-wide winner, and then one vote to the winner in each congressional district (two in Maine, and three in Nebraska).

"How long can the US go without knowing their next president?"

The electoral college - whose job it is to formally nominate the next president - meets on 14 December this year.

Electors are put forward by each state for their winning candidate.

If the election results are still disputed in certain states and they can't decide which candidate to give their electors to, then it would be up to the US Congress to step in.

The US Constitution imposes a final deadline - the term of the president (and vice-president) expires on 20 January at noon.

If Congress has been unable to choose the winner by then, there's a line of succession set out in law.

First in line is the Speaker of the House of Representatives, currently Nancy Pelosi, followed by the second highest ranking member of the Senate, currently Charles Grassley.

This has never happened before so it's unclear how, under these exceptional circumstances, this would work in practise.

03

As the U.S. votes

Europe holds its breath

As Americans cast their votes in Tuesday’s presidential election, the world is watching closely, especially allies in Europe and rivals such as Russia, China and Iran, which could expect a very different U.S. foreign policy depending on the outcome.

Photo：Getty Images

Here are the latest developments:

Analysts around the world expressed fears for America’s political system, speaking in terms often reserved for fragile democracies.

Some commentators in China hope that a Joe Biden win could usher in a diplomatic respite, but fear that the deepened U.S.-China rivalry could persist, whoever wins.

Pro-Kremlin media warn elections could lead to chaos and street fighting, predicting that President Trump will be forced to retreat to his White House bunker.

Many European leaders fear Trump would weaken or destroy NATO if reelected.

In Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made much of his close ties with Trump, analysts wonder if a Democratic win might weaken the Israeli leader’s long hold on power.

Photo：Twitter

The choice of a U.S. president is always a matter of global importance — to allies, rivals, trading partners, and the web of treaties and institutions that bind countries together. This time, however, the stakes are exceedingly high.

Over the past four years, Trump has upended the principles that have guided U.S. foreign policy for decades, preferring a transactional, personality-driven approach that has at times angered and unnerved some of America’s closest allies.

He has withdrawn the United States from multilateral agreements, including the Paris climate accord and Iran nuclear deal, started several trade wars, restricted immigration and curtailed refugee resettlement.

Trump knows the world is watching. “China wants me out, Iran wants me out, Germany wants me out, they all want me out,” he said at a campaign rally Saturday. “But here we are, right?”

Photo：BBC News

If Joe Biden wins, the election will mark a crucial pivot for U.S. foreign policy. He has said that one of his first acts as president would be to “get on the phone with the heads of state and say, ‘America’s back, you can count on us.’ ”

04

What we’ve learned from the vote count of the presidential race Wednesday

People gather to protest President Trump’s threat to contest the election results during a “count every vote” rally in Boston on November 4.

Photo：Joseph Prezioso/AFP

The key swing states remaining in the presidential contest still hadn’t been called as of 11 pm Eastern Wednesday. But as the count has continued, there have been some interesting results in a few states.

The expected electoral map right now is below. As you can see, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is 17 electoral votes away from the 270 he needs to win the presidency. President Donald Trump, however, is further away — he’ll need to pick up 53 of the remaining electoral votes to win.

So Biden is in a good position, but he hasn’t yet quite nailed down what he needs for victory.

Biden’s easiest path to a victory is by winning Pennsylvania — its 20 electoral votes would get him over the top. And as the count in the Keystone State has continued to come in, analysts believe it looks increasingly good for Biden.

As was expected, Trump led Pennsylvania in the election night count. But that was purely an artifact of which votes were counted first. 

Democrats voted heavily by mail, and unlike many other swing states, Pennsylvania was not permitted to start the time-intensive work of processing mail ballots until Election Day. So the heavily Republican in-person votes, cast on Election Day itself, were counted first. That’s why Trump had a large-seeming lead.

Photo：Andrew Prokop/Vox

But as more votes have been counted throughout Wednesday, that lead has gotten smaller and smaller — and analysts believe Biden is on track to win the state fairly handily.

The Upshot’s Nate Cohn wrote Wednesday morning that “the remaining vote in Pennsylvania appears to be overwhelmingly for Biden.” And the count since then has confirmed that analysis. Trump’s lead shrank from 700,000 votes in the morning to about 167,000 votes in the evening, with hundreds of thousands of ballots still to be counted.

Photo：Financial Times

“If the absentee votes continue to break for Biden by the margins they have so far—and as we have every reason to expect—then Biden would win by around 2 points,” Cohn tweeted in the afternoon. “And if anything, I’m conservatively rounding down on 2,” he added.

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, looking at counties that have completed their votes, concurred, tweeting: “At these rates, Biden should finish with a healthy lead in PA.”

And FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tweeted that Biden has been winning the recent Pennsylvania votes counted by about 50 points — and he just needs to win them by 22 points going forward to win the state.

来源：BBC News , CNN , VOX News , Bloomberg News , Washington Post .

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实习记者：俞梦婕监制：李璨
责任编辑：刘薇禛平

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