别以为很寻常！未来一周，将是世界疫情最关键的一周！

克莱因瓶是一个不可定向的二维紧流形，而球面或轮胎面是可 克莱因瓶 克莱因瓶 定向的二维紧流形。如果观察克莱因瓶，有一点似乎令人困惑－－ “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太 CHAPTER X. TOBACCO OFFERINGS. 1808. It was a beautiful moonlight evening in August. A shadowy haze lingered over the river, which glistened and sparkled in the moonlight. The Chief and several members of his family were seated on the beach in front of the Wigwam listening to the Honorable Joseph Papineau, who, with his son, Louis Joseph, had come up in a canoe to see the falls. The former had recently purchased from Bishop Laval the unsettled seigniory of Petit Nation, and had erected an unpretentious cottage, which he occupied during the summer months. HON. LOUIS JOSEPH PAPINEAU AND MADAME PAPINEAU. From Morgan\\'s "Types of Canadian Women" (copyright, 1903), by permission. HON. LOUIS JOSEPH PAPINEAU AND MADAME PAPINEAU. From Morgan\\'s "Types of Canadian Women" (copyright, 1903), by permission. "It was a lovely vision," said Mr. Papineau, who had just performed the feat of canoeing to the foot of the Chaudiere Falls for the first time. "On our return we climbed the rugged cliff on the south side, and never shall I forget the panorama that spread out before us. The sun, sinking slowly behind the Laurentian hills, had clothed himself with a robe of splendor. The long reflections lay soft on the waters of the river below. The clouds of ascending mist from the Chaudiere took a thousand shades of color as the western sky faded slowly from crimson into gold and from gold to green and gray, and finally displayed dark shapes, out of which imagination might well have formed a thousand monsters.* * Louis Joseph, afterwards known as the Demosthenes of Canada, and who almost succeeded in making Canada a Republic, with himself as President, was evidently much impressed with the scene, which he described as follows: "Le soleil etait pret decendre sous l\\'horison, la mureille tout limpide etait d\\'une transparence vivre, tout penetree de lumiere vaguement prismatiseé." "As we watched the gathering shadows my thoughts went back two hundred years, to the time when Champlain went on his first trip up the \\'Riviere des Algoumequins,\\' as he called it. About two years before he took the trip he sent Nicholas de Vignan, a young Frenchman, up the river with some friendly Indians, and Nicholas had returned with the marvellous story that he had reached the North Sea. He said that the journey could be made in a few days. He also gave an account of having seen the wreck of an English ship. "Champlain was completely taken in, and lost no time in starting off to verify the discovery for which the world had been looking for some time. His fleet consisted of two canoes with two Indians and three Frenchmen, one of whom was De Vignan. It was in May, when the river was at its height. When they reached the Gatineau the Indians told him that their tribe were often compelled to conceal themselves amid the hills of the Upper Gatineau from their dreaded enemies, the Iroquois. When Champlain beheld the twin curtain falls yonder, \\'like a slow dropping veil of the thinnest lawn,\\' he exclaimed, \\'Le Rideau! Le Rideau!\\' The Indians told him that the waters formed an arcade under which they delighted to walk, and where they were only wet by the spray. As they rounded the lofty headland opposite he saw the cloud of mist rising from the falls, which the Indians called the \\'Asticou,\\' which means \\'Chaudiere\\' in French, or \\'kettle\\' in English, for the water has worn out a deep basin into which it rushes with a whirling motion which boils up in the midst like a kettle. "You have probably been close enough to have seen it, Madame?" he said, addressing Mrs. Wright. "No," she replied, "I have always been too timid to venture so near to it in a canoe." "Champlain said," continued Mr. Papineau, "that he paddled as near as possible to the falls, when the Indians took the canoes and the Frenchmen and himself carried their arms and provisions. He described with great feeling the sharp and rugged rocks of the portages to pass the falls and rapids until at last, in the afternoon, they embarked upon the peaceful waters of a lake where, he said, there were very beautiful islands filled with vines and with walnut and other agreeable trees." "There are no walnuts on the islands of Lake Chaudiere," interrupted Bearie, "I am quite sure." "He probably saw a butternut tree," said young Louis Joseph, "and thought it produced walnuts." "Champlain\\'s journey came to an abrupt close a few days afterwards," said Mr. Papineau, "when he reached Allumette Island, about seventy miles farther up the river. There was a large settlement of friendly Algonquins, called \\'Les Sauvages de l\\'Isle,\\' and Champlain tried to obtain several canoes and guides to proceed farther. They, however, had their own commercial reasons for keeping the French from the upper country, and they warned him of the danger of meeting the terrible tribe of the Sorcerers. Champlain said that De Vignan had passed through all these dangers. The head Chief then said to the impostor: "\\'Is it true that you have said that you have been among the Sorcerers?\\' "After a long pause he said: \\'Yes, I\\'ve been there.\\' "The Indians at once threw themselves upon him with fierce cries as if they would have torn him to pieces, and the Chief said: "\\'You are a bold liar. You know that every night you slept by my side with my children. How have you the impudence to tell your chief such lies?\\' "The upshot was that Champlain returned down the Ottawa, followed by an escort of fifty canoes. "When the party reached the Chaudiere the savages, he said, performed their mystic rites. After having carried their canoes to the foot of the Falls, they gathered in a certain spot where one of them, provided with a wooden dish, passed it round, and each one placed in the dish a piece of tobacco. "The collection finished, the dish was placed in the midst of the band and all danced around it, chanting after their fashion. Then one of the chiefs delivered a harangue, explaining that from olden times they had always made such an offering, and that by this means they are protected from their enemies and saved from misfortune, for so the devil persuades them. Then the same chief took the dish and proceeded to throw the tobacco into the Chaudiere, amid the loud shoutings of the band. \\'They are so superstitious,\\' said Champlain, \\'that they do not believe that they can make a safe journey if they have not performed this ceremony in this particular place.\\' "The Chief proceeded to throw the tobacco into the Chaudiere." "The Chief proceeded to throw the tobacco into the Chaudiere." "Ah, Monsieur," Mr. Papineau continued, "it stirred my soul as I stood on that rocky cliff and thought of how many canoes of heroic missionaries, Indian braves and cheery voyageurs have paddled these waters and torn their feet on the rocky shores, going, some of them to death and some to tortures worse than death. As we drifted down with the current in the moonlight the gentle breeze in the pines along the shore seemed to be whispering sad tales of other days." Mr. Papineau, who had spoken with such animation and fluency, relapsed into silence for several minutes, then, rousing himself, said, with even greater enthusiasm and vigor: "Providence has crowned our lives with great blessing since the heroic Daulac struck the death-blow to the power of the Iroquois in this country, and since the English undertook the responsibility of its government. Though I am proud of the fact that every bone and muscle, nerve and sinew within me is French, though I dearly love my Mother Country and my fellow countrymen, I have no hesitation in making the solemn assertion that our country has enjoyed a greater degree of prosperity under the new regime than it ever did under the old. But it must ever be remembered that much of the foundation of that prosperity was laid in the blood of the early French martyrs and in the heroic achievements of the early French settlers." It seemed incredible to the visitors that in a settlement of so recent date their host should have been able to show them a grist-mill, a saw-mill, a vegetable alkali factory, a tannery, a small foundry, a tailor shop, a bakery, a general store, and a hemp-mill, giving employment to over one hundred men. Fortunately for the pioneers of the Ottawa, they were not dependent upon the small revenue derived from the cultivation of the land, but had other resources which afforded them much greater remuneration. The British Navy, which hitherto had been dependent upon Russia for its cordage and lumber, had to look elsewhere for its supply of hemp and timber, owing to the ports of the Baltic having been closed to British ships. The price of hemp having risen from ￡25 to ￡118 per ton, they undertook the cultivation of it, and raised over three-fourths of the amount raised in Lower Canada at that time. The exportation of lumber and vegetable alkali, or potash, were also great sources of revenue. In the new clearances were tons of wood ashes from which the lye was extracted and boiled till it looked like molten iron, a barrel of which sold at that time for thirty dollars. Prosperity and success crowned every commercial enterprise upon which they ventured until fire swept every mill, factory and dwelling in the thriving little village out of existence, including thousands of dollars in cash in a small safe in the office, quantities of wheat, hemp, sawn lumber, laths and general merchandise. As there was no compensation in the way of insurance, the loss was much felt. Philemon Wright was not the man to be deterred from climbing the ladder of success, even though he had to mount it by the rungs of adverse circumstances. Though the loss sustained was great, almost overwhelming, he rose above it with a courage which yielded not to disappointment or failure. The cause of the fire long remained a mystery. That it was the work of an incendiary was beyond question. Various theories were advocated by the settlers, but suspicion rested upon Machecawa, who, it was alleged, had been seen by the bookkeeper at a late hour lingering about the mills, a suspicion which gained no credence with the Chief and his family.阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”。星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石。其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系，这就是彗 [76]  在超新星爆发的过程中所释放的能量，需要我们的太阳燃烧900亿年才能与之相当。[77]  超新星研究有着关乎人类自身命运的深层意义。如果一颗超新星爆发的位置非常接近地球，目前国际天文学界普遍认为此距离在100光年以内，它就能够对地球的生物圈产生明显的影响，这样的超新星被称为近地超新星。有研究认为，在地球历史上的奥陶纪大灭绝，就是一颗近地超新星引起的，这次灭绝导致当时地球近60%的海洋生物消失。[78]

克莱因瓶是一个

（一）

新冠肺炎疫情，正在改变世界。别以为很寻常，未来这一周，将是全世界疫情最关键的一周，从某种意义上说，这也可能是改变世界的一周。

请注意，我指的是全球疫情。当然，这肯定也包括中国。

让世卫组织都有些惊喜的，中国的数据正持续向好。连续两天，WHO总干事谭德赛都提到，中国以外的新增确诊数，已经超过了中国的新增确诊数。

今天（29日）早上公布的疫情数据，更可以用惊喜来形容。

第一，累计出院人数39002>现有确诊数37414。这还是首次啊！

第二，如果不把湖北计算在内，全国新增确诊病例，只有4例。

14亿人口的中国，扣掉湖北还有13亿多，只新增确诊了4例。

这是什么概念？

我就不用多说了。

即使是重灾区的武汉，姗姗来迟的春天，似乎也终于要来了。

国新办昨天在武汉发布会透露的信息，武汉的每日新增确诊，也已由最高峰2月13日的3910例，下降至2月27日313例；相关的病亡率，也从1月26日的最高点9.0%，下降到现在的4.4%。

好事啊。

更要看到，新增确诊病例，百分之八九十，都是从疑似转过来的，那意味着都在隔离状态；死亡率下降了一半，意味着治疗产生了积极效果。

未来一周，对中国非常关键。

如果数据继续向好，将有更多省份下调应急响应机制，即将一级调到二级、三级甚至更低；更多地方的生活工作秩序，将得到恢复。

流动的中国，又将逐步流动起来。

当然，领导人也都明确说了，疫情形势仍然复杂严峻，防控正处于吃劲的关键阶段，中国还丝毫大意不得。

毕竟，现在的成功，很大程度是宅在家里的成功。人员一旦大规模流动起来，风险就会增加。稍有疏忽，很可能前功尽弃。

而且，还要考虑国际因素。

正如昨天说的，随着海外疫情的加重，未来一周甚至多周，中国又增加一项重要任务：防止海外输入。

精彩推荐：中医输给西医，是中国输得最惨的一场战争

（二）

未来一周，世界最担忧的，已经是中国以外。

一个最明显的信号，就是2月28日，WHO将疫情全球风险级别，由此前的“高”上调至“非常高”。上一次调整是在1月22日，当时全球风险评估为“高”，只有中国“非常高”。

现在，全球都“非常高”。

形势，确实不容乐观。

对一些国家来说，下一周非常非常关键。

其中，就包括日本，包括韩国，包括意大利，也包括伊朗。

按照日本专家的共同意见：未来一到两周，是决定日本命运的关键时期。扛过去了，日本或许太平无事；扛不过去，全国疫情就将失控，弄得不好，东京奥运会也没戏。

所以，我们看到，安倍才会突然下令，从下周一开始，全国中小学都停课。但体制不同，安倍的决定遭到日本一些地方的强烈反对。这不是本文的重点，但安倍心头的焦虑，我们可想而知。

还有韩国。韩国的确诊病例，已经超越日本成为世界第二，大邱成了韩国的武汉。但韩国还在暴发期，从中国经验看，哪怕采取封城等断然举措，初步遏制还需要一段时间。

未来一两周，对韩国非常关键。既要迅速控制好大邱等重灾区的疫情，还要防止疫情向首尔扩散。作为首都的首尔，人口占到韩国总人口的约20%。首尔市长朴元淳曾警告：“一旦首尔失守，整个韩国都将沦陷。”

还有意大利。意大利事实上已成为西方疫情最严重的国家。现在每天新增确诊，都是以百为单位在增加。累计确诊达到889例时，死亡有21例，比韩国和中国绝大多数省份的死亡率都高。

更糟糕的是，欧洲各国流动性大，意大利疫情同时正向欧洲其他国家蔓延，按照谭德赛的说法，丹麦、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、荷兰和尼日利亚报告的第1例，都与意大利有关。

但最让人忧心的，其实是伊朗。

就不说数据了，看看这一些VIP吧。

伊朗副总统玛苏梅·埃卜特卡尔确诊，这是全世界所有确诊者中，职位最高的一个。

伊朗卫生部副部长哈利其确诊，这是全世界所有确诊者中，职位最高的卫生官员。

伊朗国会国家安全与外交政策委员会主席祖努尔确诊，这是全世界所有确诊者中，职位最高的议会人物。

伊朗前驻梵蒂冈大使霍斯罗沙希确诊，这是全世界所有确诊者中，职位最高的外交官员。

伊朗五人制女足国家队成员伊尔哈姆·谢赫因新冠肺炎去世，这是世界足坛第一位新冠肺炎的死亡病例……

更重要的，伊朗是全世界新冠肺炎死亡率最高的国家。

韩国死亡率不到1%，意大利和日本死亡率约2%左右。伊朗官方公布的确诊病例338例，死亡病例34例，死亡率超过了10%。

10%的死亡率，比武汉最糟糕时都要高了。

伊朗卫生部长也坦言，未来一周，对伊朗来说“非常艰难”。

全球性的“高风险”，其中也自然包括美国。美国官员也已警告：疫情在美国蔓延不可避免。

所以，在过去这个星期，美国投资者真是欲哭无泪，黑色星期一之后是黑色星期二，黑色星期二之后又是黑色星期四，黑色星期四之后还有黑色星期五，多年来未有之连续暴跌。

中国上半场，世界下半场。

精彩推荐：形势正在发生重大变化！这几点需特别警惕！

（三）

未来一周，将是世界疫情最关键的一周！

对世界来说，至少到目前为止，更糟糕的可能还没到来。

心情有点沉重，就简单说两点吧：

1，现在是全人类共同抗疫的时候了。

不得不佩服WHO官员的判断。记得她此前曾明确警告：得益于中国对武汉的彻底封锁，短期内海外患者发生数出现了大幅减少，但这个成果，最多只能保持到2月底为止！

现在，2月底到了。真是一言成谶！

中国悲壮的抗疫举措，为世界赢得了一个时间窗口。有些国家抓住了，但种种原因，有些心大的国家错过了。真是太可惜了。

未来一周，最好的结果，更多国家将出现疫情，一些国家局势将会恶化，但还在掌控之中。

最可怕的，是最糟糕的结果，全面恶化，一些国家将陷入全面危机。我们也必须做好充分准备。

毕竟，病毒针对的不是一个国家，而是整个人类。我们别无选择，只有共同迎战这个敌人。

WHO总干事谭德赛说的，政治化操作不会真正帮到我们，这个病毒会攻击任何人，这是全体人类在和不了解的病毒作斗争。如果全人类不从梦中醒来，并把这个病毒当做第一公敌，我觉得我们永远不会吸取教训！

2，未来一周，我们要继续咬紧牙关。

对中国来说，形势向好，但风险仍在，千万不能功亏一篑啊。

在继续防范内部扩散的同时，下一阶段的主要任务之一，可能是防止外部输入了。

按照一位朋友的说法，如果疫情真在全球扩散，考虑到中国的决策效率和体制优势，不排除到最后，中国是世界上为数不多能有效控制疫情的国家，转身帮助其他国家渡过危机。

很简单的一点，如果全球疫情加重，防护物资成为刚需，如果中国能尽快腾出手来，世界工厂能量迸发，会给各国极大的支持。某些国家甚至可能不得不降低关税，要求中国多出口一些。

至于最近美股暴跌，看到有段子这样说：

中国疫情最严重时候，美股没有跌，说明美国资本市场对中国控制疫情有信心。中国疫情开始控制住的时候，美股暴跌，说明美国资本市场对中国以外地区控制疫情没有信心。

嗯，分析得如此有道理，我竟然无法反驳……

这当然是段子，我们也不必当真。但这更提醒我们，全球化的时代，共赢才是王道，以邻为壑必然害人害己。

未来一周，很多人可能还要宅在家里，很多人已开始复工复产，中国又要流动起来了。但对世界其他地方来说，防控正进入最关键阶段，焦虑可能才刚刚开始。

这将是一个可能改变世界的一周。悲观中我们要看到希望，但乐观中我们要更加谨慎。

没有什么可以压垮中国人民。但，痛定思痛，该反思的必须深刻反思，不然，真对不起这么好的人民！

牛弹琴

（放到你圈子里，朋友们会感激你）