TED学院 | 霍金TED演讲——浩瀚宇宙究竟是什么样的？我们从何而来

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TED简介：2008 地球科学 | 以TED2008的主题为出发点，史蒂芬·霍金教授提出了一些关于我们宇宙的重要问题──宇宙如何开始？生命何起源？宇宙中只有我们吗？。与此同时，霍金教授也讨论了我们探究破解这些问题的途径。

演讲者：Stephen Hawking 史蒂芬·霍金

片长：10：09

https://v.qq.com/txp/iframe/player.html?width=500&height=375&auto=0&vid=j03107lw3ln

中英文对照翻译

There is nothing bigger or older than the universe. The questions I would like to talk about are: one, where did we come from? How did the universe come into being? Are we alone in the universe? Is there alien life out there? What is the future of the human race?

没什么比宇宙更广大更久远的了。你们的问题中我想聊一下的是：你我何从？宇宙何来？宇宙中就只有我们？有外星异生物么？人类的未来将会如何？

Up until the 1920s, everyone thought the universe was essentially static and unchanging in time. Then it was discovered that the universe was expanding. Distant galaxies were moving away from us. This meant they must have been closer together in the past. If we extrapolate back, we find we must have all been on top of each other about 15 billion years ago. This was the Big Bang, the beginning of the universe.

上世纪20年代之前，所有人都以为宇宙基本上是处于稳态，流金岁月，持恒不变。之后我们发现原来宇宙正在膨胀中。辽远星系一直飞离我们，这意味着它们必定曾相靠近。我们若往后推算，就会发现我们必都曾於约150亿年前，互相堆叠在一起。正是这 "霹雳大爆炸" ——宇宙之起始。

But was there anything before the Big Bang? If not, what created the universe? Why did the universe emerge from the Big Bang the way it did? We used to think that the theory of the universe could be divided into two parts. First, there were the laws like Maxwell's equations and general relativity that determined the evolution of the universe, given its state over all of space at one time. And second, there was no question of the initial state of the universe.

然而大爆炸前可有什么吗？若是没有，又是什么创造宇宙呢？宇宙缘何要从大霹雳中冒出呢？过往我们都认为宇宙论可分成两部分，首先，是定律。像“麦克斯韦方程组”'和 “广义相对论”以其于同一刻设定整个时空之状态，而决定了宇宙之演化进程。次之，是对宇宙雏形的疑问。

We have made good progress on the first part, and now have the knowledge of the laws of evolution in all but the most extreme conditions. But until recently, we have had little idea about the initial conditions for the universe. However, this division into laws of evolution and initial conditions depends on time and space being separate and distinct. 

第一部分我们取得良好进展，除了“至极端境况”'以外。现在已对演化规律于所有境况下之进程有所掌握。可直至最近，我们仍对宇宙初生当时之周围条件不甚了了。然而，这演化律及初始条件之界分，乃囿于"时 空分明"之概念内。

Under extreme conditions, general relativity and quantum theoryallow time to behave like another dimension of space. This removes the distinction between time and space, and means the laws of evolution can also determine the initial state. The universe can spontaneously create itself out of nothing.

而於极端条件下，广义相对论及量子论容许“时间”如同“空间”的另一维度般运作。这就将“时.空”之间区别移除了，即是说演化律 亦可决定初始状态。宇宙可以由无变有自我创生！

Moreover, we can calculate a probability that the universe was created in different states. These predictions are in excellent agreement with observations by the WMAP satellite of the cosmic microwave background, which is an imprint of the very early universe. We think we have solved the mystery of creation. Maybe we should patent the universe and charge everyone royalties for their existence.

我们甚至可以计算出宇宙在不同情况下诞生的可能性。这些推论与WMAP卫星所观测到的宇宙微波背景辐射（即大爆炸之痕迹）相当一致。我们相信已勘破了创造奥秘或许我们应将“宇宙”给注册，然后向每个生存于世的人收“生活费”。

I now turn to the second big question: are we alone, or is there other life in the universe? We believe that life arose spontaneously on the Earth, so it must be possible for life to appear on other suitable planets, of which there seem to be a large number in the galaxy.

现在我转到第二个大问题去，宇宙中就只有我们，还是另有其它生物？我们相信生命从地球自我衍生，故此生命确有可能出现於其它合适星球——星河中看来可有不少呢。

But we don't know how life first appeared. We have two pieces of observational evidence on the probability of life appearing. The first is that we have fossils of algae from 3.5 billion years ago. The Earth was formed 4.6 billion years ago and was probably too hot for about the first half billion years. So life appeared on Earth within half a billion years of it being possible, which is short compared to the 10-billion-year lifetime of a planet of Earth type. This suggests that the probability of life appearing is reasonably high. If it was very low, one would have expected it to take most of the ten billion years available.

但我们仍未搅通生命是如何生成：对於生命诞生的可能契机，我们有两项观测得来的佐证。首先我们有来自35亿年前的海藻化石。地球于46亿年前形成，头约5亿年相信仍太热了。故此生命于其变得可能后的5亿年间方出现，这相对于像地球之类百亿年期的星体，只算是一段短时间。这意味着生命出现的概率是颇高的。若是低的话，就可预期要花尽百亿年的绝大部分才会出现。

On the other hand, we don't seem to have been visited by aliens. I am discounting the reports of UFOs.Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos? If there is a government conspiracy to suppress the reports and keep for itself the scientific knowledge the aliens bring, it seems to have been a singularly ineffective policy so far. Furthermore, despite an extensive search by the SETI project, we haven't heard any alien television quiz shows. This probably indicates that there are no alien civilizations at our stage of development within a radius of a few hundred light years. Issuing an insurance policy against abduction by aliens seems a pretty safe bet.

另一方面，我们似乎从未见有外星人到访。我不信那些什么“不明物体的报导”。它们干吗要单向那些古古怪怪的人现身呢？若真有一个甚麽政府阴谋要将报导打住，从而将外星人所带来之科学识据为己有，那可真像个既离奇，亦从未见效的举措。再说，即便SETI计划已进行广泛探索，我们还没有收听到任何外太空电视答问节目。这可能昭示在我们现阶段文明发展之方圆数百光年范围之内，并没有其它外星异文化。卖保险给那些怕被外星人绑架的人，看来是个不错的选择。

This brings me to the last of the big questions: the future of the human race. If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy, we should make sure we survive and continue. But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history. Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth are growing exponentially, along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill. But our genetic code still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts that were of survival advantage in the past. It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand or million.

这送我到了最后一个大问题：人类的前途。若我们是星河里唯一智能生物，就必须确保自己能存活并延续下去。但我们正迈入历史中一个愈发危险的时段。我们的人囗和对地球有限资源的耗用，正以几何级数增长，相随的是我们将环境或弄好或弄垮的技术才能，至于我们的基因指令则仍带着那自私和好斗的本质，这或有利于我们过往求存，却又让我们于往后数百年内人祸难逃。更别说未来千百万年了。

Our only chance of long-term survival is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth, but to spread out into space. The answers to these big questions show that we have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years. But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years, our future is in space.That is why I am in favor of manned — or should I say, personned — space flight.

我们长活下去的唯一机会，不是一直呆着在地球而是冲出太空去。这些大问题之解答显示我们于过去数百年取得可观进展。可若要超越未来数百年，们的前途在于太空。正因此，我较倾向于 "人" 控——( man 于英语中可单指'人“”或“男人”) 或许我应说，由人驾驶之太空旅航。

All of my life I have sought to understand the universe and find answers to these questions. I have been very lucky that my disability has not been a serious handicap. Indeed, it has probably given me more time than most people to pursue the quest for knowledge. The ultimate goal is a complete theory of the universe, and we are making good progress. Thank you for listening.

我一生都在探究想要了解宇宙并找出这些问题之答案。我一直都非常幸运，我的残疾并没造成严重障礙；说真的，这反倒让我比大部分人获得更多时间以从事知识之追求。终极目标是一套完备的宇宙论，而我们已有良好进展。感谢您们的聆听。

Chris Anderson: Professor, if you had to guess either way, do you now believe that it is more likely than not that we are alone in the Milky Way, as a civilization of our level of intelligence or higher? This answer took seven minutes, and really gave me an insight into the incredible act of generosity this whole talk was for TED.

安德森：教授，若您必须二选其一作猜测，此刻您是较相信还是较不相信我们是天河中唯一现水平或更高水平之智能文化？准备这答案已花了7分多钟，真让我深切体会到这整个演讲为TED所付出之，让人难以置信之慷慨。

Stephen Hawking: I think it quite likely that we are the only civilization within several hundred light years; otherwise we would have heard radio waves. The alternative is that civilizations don't last very long, but destroy themselves.

霍金：我想我们应该是数百光年范围内之独一文明；否则我们应已收听到电波。另一种可能是，该等文明都维持不久，就自我毁灭掉。

CA: Professor Hawking, thank you for that answer. We will take it as a salutary warning, I think, for the rest of our conference this week. Professor, we really thank you for the extraordinary effort you madeto share your questions with us today. Thank you very much indeed.

安德森： 霍金教授，谢谢您的解答。我想，我们会将之作为这一周余下会谈之座右铭。教授，我们衷心感谢您今天为与我们分享您的问题所作出之卓越贡献。真的非常感谢您。

(Applause) 

(掌声)

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