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泽米尔·阿万教授：巴基斯坦新的战略贸易政策框架
由于新冠肺炎疫情，世界经济陷入困境，几乎没有国家陷入衰退。即使是像美国和欧盟这样最发达的国家也面临着经济危机。然而，很少有国家的影响力比中国和巴基斯坦更小。
巴基斯坦采取了创新的智能封锁方法，避免了对其经济的不利影响。巴基斯坦的经济指标是积极的。情况还不理想，但令人鼓舞。巴基斯坦的决策者对形势进行了很好的评估，并采取了创新的方法来克服大流行，同时保持经济不受干扰。
巴基斯坦联邦内阁批准了《2020/25战略贸易政策框架》。STPF 2020/25旨在提高巴基斯坦企业生产、分销和销售产品和服务的能力，或比其竞争对手更有效。
巴基斯坦产品享有良好的声誉，在国际市场上具有竞争力。巴基斯坦是世贸组织的创始成员国，信奉贸易自由化。它促进全球化和多边主义。我们认为，保护主义不是国际贸易的健康趋势，可能会限制市场准入。这可能会对自由和公平贸易造成障碍。
在研究了国际需求趋势和巴基斯坦不同出口部门的能力和能力后，在框架下确定了以下优先部门。巴基斯坦正在探索新的市场，并有能力参与国际竞争。巴基斯坦的优势在于其庞大的劳动力，大约70%的人口是40岁以下的年轻人。丰富的原材料、丰富的矿藏和矿产是巴基斯坦强大的工业基础。农业也是我们的力量，肥沃的土地、充足的水资源和强大的劳动力使巴基斯坦农业成为巴基斯坦的主要收入来源。
在该政策下，传统行业包括纺织和服装、皮革、手术器械、体育用品、地毯、水稻、餐具、药品、大理石和矿物质、加工食品和饮料、鞋类、宝石和珠宝、化学物质、肉类和家禽、水果和蔬菜、海鲜和服务业，特别是资讯科技、运输、物流和旅游业；发展领域是工程产品，包括汽车零部件。战略贸易政策框架的主要重点将是地理和产品多样化，通过关税合理化降低制造成本，追求区域互联互通和着眼于非洲政策，通过自贸协定/PTA提高市场准入，为物流和跟踪提供便利，并加强区域连接，以进入中亚共和国、土耳其和伊朗，并进一步进入欧洲和俄罗斯。巴基斯坦期待与其他国家签订更多的自由贸易协定，特别是与欧盟成员国。
该框架在性质上是动态的，并将根据不断监测和评估进行航向修正。将会有一个制度化的机制来强有力地监督和执行STPF，以尽量减少政策执行差距。由于出口生态系统中的多组织角色，政策执行差距传统上仍然是一个薄弱环节。
正在采取一种全面的方法来加强与其他国家的贸易，以促进出口。目前，巴基斯坦的出口占其进口的一半。贸易逆差给巴基斯坦的外汇需求带来了巨大压力。由于巴基斯坦货币贬值，这也导致了通货膨胀和价格上涨。
为了监督STPF 2020/25的实施，已经成立了一个跨职能的国家出口发展委员会(NEDB)，由总理担任主席，成员包括相关组织的公共部门高级官员和私营部门代表。新开发银行定期举行会议，以确保各项政策措施的落实。
预计随着新框架的引入，将会加强出口，并对巴基斯坦经济作出积极贡献。这将为巴基斯坦和世界其他国家之间的合作和协作创造许多渠道。
PS：本文由泽米尔阿万（教授）供稿。
作者：Zamir Awan，泽米尔阿万（教授），笔名：巴铁泽米尔。现任巴基斯坦国立科技大学中国研究中心副主任。巴基斯坦驻中国大使馆原科技参赞。泽米尔生于1962年3月1日，80年代在中国留过学。在上海大学获得学士与硕士学位，机械专业。他为巴中两国人民之间的友谊做了不少的工作，特别一带一路与巴中经济走廊方面。
本文由泽米尔·阿万（教授）供稿。
Pakistan’s New Strategic Trade Policy Framework
Due to the Pandemic, the global economy is suffering and few nations have already entered into recession. Even the most developed nations like the US and EU countries are facing economic crises. However, few countries have less impact, among them are China as well as Pakistan.
Pakistan adopted an innovative approach of smart lockdown and averted adverse impact on its economy. Economic indicators in Pakistan are positive. The situation is not aideal, yet, encouraging. The policy makers in Pakistan has assesssessed situayion well and adopted innovatiove approach to overcome Pandemic, while keeping economy less disturbed.
The Federal Cabinet of Pakistan approved the Strategic Trade Policy Framework (STPF) 2020/25. The STPF 2020/25 aims at enhancing the ability of Pakistani enterprises’ capacity to produce, distribute and sell products and services as or more efficiently than their competitors.
Pakistani products enjoy a good reputation and yet are competitive in the international market. Pakistan is a founding member of WTO and believes in trade liberalization. It promotes globalization and multilateralism. We believe protectionism is not a healthy trend in international trade and may limit market access. It might create hurdles in free and fair trade.
The following priority sectors have been identified under the framework after studying the international demand trends, on one hand, and the capacity and capabilities of different export sectors of Pakistan, on the other. Pakistan is exploring new markets and capable of competing Internationally. The strength of Pakistan is its huge workforce, around 70% of its population is youth under the age of 40. The abundance of raw material and rich mines and minerals makes a strong industrial base for Pakistan. Agriculture is our strength too, the fertile land, penty of water, and strong work force transformed Pakistan agriculture a major source of earning for Pakistan.
Under the policy, the traditional sectors included textiles and apparel; leather; surgical instruments; sports goods; carpets; rice; cutlery; pharmaceuticals; marble and minerals; processed food and beverages; footwear; gems and Jewellery; chemicals; meat and poultry; fruits and vegetables; seafood; and services sector with special focus on IT, transport, logistics and tourism.
The developmental sectors are engineering goods, including auto parts. The main focus of the Strategic Trade Policy Framework will be geographical and product diversification, manufacturing cost reduction through tariff rationalisation, pursuit of regional connectivity and Look Africa Policy, enhancement of market access through FTA/PTA, facilitation of logistics and tracking under TIR and enhancement of regional connectivity for access to Central Asian Republics (CARs), Turkey and Iran, and further towards Europe and Russia. Pakistan is looking forward to more Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with other countries, especially with EU member states.
The framework is dynamic in nature and will be subject to course correction based on constant monitoring and evaluation. There would be an institutionalised mechanism for robust monitoring and implementation of the STPF to minimise the policy implementation gaps, which have traditionally remained a weak link due to multi-organisational roles in the export ecosystem.
A comprehensive approach is being adopted to enhance trade with other nations , aiming to boost exports. Currently, Pakistani exports stand at half of its imports. The trade deficit has exerted a huge pressure on demand of foreign exchange for Pakistan. It also caused inflation and price hike, due to devaluation of Pakistani currency.
To oversee the implementation of STPF 2020/25, a cross functional National Export Development Board (NEDB) had already been constituted under the chairmanship of the prime minister, comprising senior public sector officials of the relevant organisations and private sector representatives. Regular meetings of the NEDB are being held to ensure the implementation of various policy measures.
It is expected that with the introduction of new framework will enhance exports and contribute toward Pakistani economy positively. It will create many avenues of cooperation and collaboration between Pakistan and the rest of the world.
Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan – Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.