刘珺：中国需要彻底改革金融业以实现经济再平衡

浙江大学互联网金融研究院（浙大AIF）“中资银行国际化报告”的专家咨询委员会成员、中国投资有限责任公司副总经理刘珺博士，近期发表《中国需要彻底改革金融业以实现经济再平衡》一文，针对当前中国经济增长趋势提出建议。

当前，中国经济增长有放缓的趋势。实际上，中国经济增长的放缓主要由于中国产出结构的改善，即消费占国内生产总值的比重正在上升，而投资和出口的比重逐步下降。这表明中国经济正在转型，由从前的高速增长转向为高质量发展，进而实现经济的再平衡。

研究表明，知识密集型服务业的增长速度高于劳动密集型服务业。近年来，中国也逐渐意识到了这一点，逐渐加大了科技创新投入的比重，而这也在一定的程度上导致了近几个月零售销售额增长的下降。中国正处在发展共享经济和数字经济的最前沿，大数据和人工智能也蓬勃发展，这些理念、技术的进步重塑了传统的产品、服务的观念，并改变了供求双方的关系。

相对于解决零售销售额增长下降的问题而言，保持中国消费和整体经济的销售势头更为重要，对此，央行制定了积极的财政政策和中性至宽松的货币政策。但更为重要的是，中国应该大幅改善融资结构。首先，企业融资应该降低对商业贷款的过度依赖，这一方面符合数字经济时代的要求，另一方面也符合科技型创业公司的实际融资能力。此外，中国还迫切需要一个运作良好的资金市场，形成对上市公司、信息披露的有效监管。

英文原文

China needs to overhaul its financial sector to ease rebalancing

Companies in burgeoning technology require new sources of funding

     Liu Jun, Member of IMI Academic Committee, Vice President, China Investment Corporation

China's economy is slowing down. Both official statistics and people's daily experience appear to tell the same story. Disappointing retail sales figures for November spooked investors, deepening anxiety about the economy.

However, closer scrutiny reveals that the structure of Chinese output is actually improving, with consumption growing as a share of gross domestic product, while investment and exports fall. The trends show that China is on the right path, rebalancing its economy away from high-speed growth to high-quality development.

Recent research from the OECD also suggests that knowledge-intensive service sectors are growing faster than labour-intensive ones. Investment in science, technology and innovation has grown steadily, with China overtaking Japan and the EU in 2014 to become the world's second-largest spender on research and development.

The poor retail sales figures can partly be attributed to the effects of technological progress. The new digital economy is substantially reshaping traditional notions of product and service. Intermediate products and services that were once indispensable are now cut off from the value chain, and end users no longer need to pay for the considerable cost of those mediating links.

China is at the forefront of the so-called sharing economy and digital transformation more broadly, leading the way in the development of Big Data and artificial intelligence. It is a pioneer in technologies that allow customers' needs to be identified more precisely and satisfied more quickly, without them necessarily having to pay any more.

There is a cultural aspect to this, too. A do-it-yourself ethos and an emphasis on self-sufficiency run deep in the Chinese national character. This is one reason why the sharing economy, peer-to-peer models of market exchange and ecommerce platforms have already been so successful in China, and why they are set to go from strength to strength in the future. It is clear that Chinese consumers will continue to play the roles of producers and service providers themselves quite happily.

While slowing retail growth should not be a big concern, the real issue for policymakers in Beijing is to maintain the momentum of consumption and of the economy as a whole.

Classical economic theory stresses the importance of credit creation and money supply. Given that China's real economy currently relies heavily for financing on commercial bank lending, credit expansion and the injection of liquidity ought to benefit both the retail sector and the wider economy.

Hence proposals from policymakers, including a stimulus package of active fiscal policy and neutral-to-loose monetary policy. However, it is important to see the bigger picture. Substantial improvements to China's financing structure are essential.

First, reducing the overdependence on commercial bank lending is central. Commercial banking was a product of the industrial revolution and was the major engine of financing throughout the industrial age. But it is clearly less relevant in the digital era, which is characterised by increasing "disintermediation", in which investors and borrowers bypass banks to tap capital markets directly.

In China, bank loans account for a substantial proportion of corporate funding. Most bank liabilities are individual savings and corporate deposits. But tech-oriented start-ups tend to fund themselves using equity investment, meaning they are not a good match for commercial banks.

While commercial banks should continue to service basic financial needs, they must also seek to develop capabilities in trading, investment banking and digital banking. Equipping banks to offer comprehensive financial solutions should be a priority.

Furthermore, the recent decline in equity funding for Chinese corporates highlights the urgent need for a well-functioning capital market. Although China has set up several stock exchanges to optimise the funding mix, equity is still not a significant source of capital. Investors tend to focus almost entirely on the ups and downs of the indices. Fundamental issues such as the quality of listed companies, the need for a streamlined process for initial public offerings, effective information disclosure and a well-defined regulatory framework are neglected.

Reshaping the structure of corporate financing and reforming the banking system are essential if the rebalancing of the economy towards consumption is to be achieved without too much disruption.

本文来源：公众号“IMI财经观察（imi_ruc）”

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