Oil Market Weekly Review | 石油市场周回顾 -11/05/2017
Contents | 目录
U. S. | 美国
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | 美国能源署石油周报
Refinery & Production | 原油精炼与产出量
Supply | 供给量
Import & Export | 进出口
Inventories | 库存量
Price | 价格
Remarks | 评点
China | 中国
Trump's China trip to reap energy deals | 川普中国行带来能源大单
Bangladesh signs deal with China | 中国援建孟加拉国石油管道
Remarks | 评点
OPEC | 石油输出国组织
Russia&S.Arabia ready for more work | 俄罗斯沙特等国准备进一步行动
Recent Highlights | 近期要闻
Venezuela to restructure foreign debt | 委内瑞拉将重组债务
Remarks | 评点
The Week Ahead | 核心原油数据日期
Appendix | 附录
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U.S. | 美国
Refinery & Production | 原油精炼与产出量
As shown in table 1, by 10/27, U.S. crude oil input to refineries was 15.934 million barrels/day. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.0 million barrels/day during last week, 10,000 barrels/day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.1% of their operable capacity on average. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging over 10.2 million barrels/day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging over 5.0 million barrels/day.
如图1所示，截止到10月27号， 上周美国原油精炼原料投入为1593.4万桶／天。一周平均值超过1600万桶／天， 比前一周相比减少1万桶/天。原油精炼产量为实际产能的88.1%。上周汽油产量有所增加，一周平均值超过1020万桶／天。馏分油产量也有所增加，一周平均值超过500万桶／天。（参见图1）
Table 1 Source: EIA. Numbers shown above are ending stocks.
Table 2 Source: Bloomberg Baker Hughes United States Crude Oil Rig Count Data
As in table 2, by November 3, the U.S. crude oil rotary rigs number was 729, decreasing by 8 compared to 737 last week, another drop after last week’s slight increase. This is the 7th drop in the recent 10 weeks.
如图2所示，上周美国的活跃原油钻井数减少了8，为729。 这是此项数据在10周内出现的第7次下降，也是继上周小幅增长后的又一次下降。
Table 3 Source: Bloomberg DOE crude oil total production data.
Supply | 供给量
As in table 4, by 10/27, total products supplied was 19.513 million barrels/day. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 19.5 million barrels/day, down by 3.4% from the same period last year. Motor gasoline supplied was 9.348 million barrels/day. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.3 million barrels/day, up by 2.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied was 3.69 million barrels/day, averaged 3.7 million barrels/day over the last four weeks, down by 9.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 4% compared to the same four- week period last year.
如图4所示， 截止到10月27号，石油产品总供应为1951.3万桶／天， 过去四周平均值超过1950万桶／天，与去年同期相比减少了3.4%; 汽油产品供应为934.8万桶／天， 过去四周平均值超过930万桶／天，比去年同期增加2.8%; 馏分油产品供应为369万桶／天， 过去四周平均供给为370万桶／天，比去年同期减少9.3%。航空燃油产品供给增加了4%。
（图1与图4的差值部分为出口量）
Table 4 Source: EIA.
Import & Export | 进出口
As mentioned in EIA's weekly report, by 10/27, U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 552,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.7 million barrels per day, remaining unchanged from the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 540,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 137,000 barrels per day last week.
如EIA周报中所提到的，截止到10月27号，上周美国原油进口数平均约为760万桶／天，与前一周相比减少了552，000桶／天。在过去的四周里，原油进口平均为770万桶／天，与去年同期相比未见变化。车用汽油(包括成品油和混合组分油)总进口为平均54万桶／天。馏分油进口为平均13.7万桶／天。（详细细节参见图5-7）
The details of imports, exports and net imports are shown in table 5-7 below:
Table 5 Source: EIA.
Table 6 Source: EIA.
Table 7 Source: EIA.
Inventories | 库存
As in table 8, by 10/27, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 454.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased 4.0 million barrels last week, but are in the middle of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels last week.
如图8所示，截止到10月27号，上周美国的原油库存（不包含战略原油库存）减少了240万桶，为45490万桶。原油库存量接近于年同期平均数的最高值。车用汽油的库存减少了400万桶，仍处于年同期平均中间位置水平。 成品汽油库存和混合组分油库存都有所减少。 馏分油库存减少了30万桶，处于年同期平均数的较低位水平。丙烷／丙烯存量减少了70万桶。商业原油及产品油总数减少了580万桶。（参见图8）
Table 8 Source: EIA.
Table 9 Source: Bloomberg DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory data (excluding SPR)
Table 10 Source: Bloomberg DOE Total Change IN Crude Oil Total Inventory data (excluding SPR)
Price | 价格
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude future price increased last week. Starting from 52.18 $/barrel on Oct 25, WTI crude future price kept boosting until it reached the highest level in the week, 55.66$/barrel on this Friday. Overall, WTI crude future’s price increased relatively a lot since last EIA report’s release and ended up with the highest price level in the past 2 years.
WTI原油价格上周持续波动 ,12月到期的WTI原油期货价格在美东时间10月25号为52.18美元／桶，之后持续上涨至本周五的55.66美元／桶的一周最高价格。经过一周的持续上涨后，WTI原油期货价格与上周相比变化较大，最终达到11月3号55.66美元／桶的两年内最高值。
Table 11 Source: Bloomberg WTI crude future price for the past 6 months.
Table 12 Source: Bloomberg WTI crude future price for the past month.
Remarks | 评点Oil prices rose on Friday, with U.S. crude touching a two-year high, strengthening after U.S. rig data suggested drilling in the United States would throttle back. The latest rig data supported the market's view that a global supply glut is receding. Throughout the week, prices have been bolstered by rising global demand data and expectations that OPEC and other producing countries will extend a deal to cut output. U.S. energy companies cut eight oil rigs this week, the biggest reduction since May 2016, extending a drilling decline that started over the summer when prices slipped below $50 a barrel.
本周五，在活跃原油钻井数数据再次下降，预示美国未来国内原油产量仍会下降之后，油价上升到了近两年内的最高值。最新的油价反映了市场对全球供给将会持续下跌的预期。在过去的一周内，原油价格因持续增长的全球需求和人们对OPEC等国仍会延长减产计划的预期而快速增长。美国的石油公司们上周总计关闭了8个原油钻井，这是从2016年5月以来这一数据最大的一次下跌，这标志着今年夏天油价跌破50美元／桶以来的减产仍会继续。
China | 中国
Trump's China trip to reap energy deals | 川普中国行带来能源大单
U.S. President Donald Trump will visit China November 8-10 for a series of bilateral and commercial events, including a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.On that trip, President Trump’s first visit to China—the country that he has repeatedly criticized the administration will be taking some 40 U.S. companies on a trade mission to forge deals and discuss Chinese investments in the U.S.
One of the biggest deals up for discussion is an investment of around $7 billion by an alliance including China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, for an oil pipeline in Texas and an expansion of an oil storage facility in the U.S. Virgin Islands, Bloomberg reports, quoting a person familiar with the proposal. Sinopec, in partnership with ArcLight Capital Partners—a Boston-based private equity firm focused on energy infrastructure assets—and with Connecticut-based Freepoint Commodities, is expected to propose a project for building a 700-mile-long pipeline from the Permian to the Gulf Coast and a storage facility at the Coast, according to Bloomberg’s source. Sinopec also wants to expand an oil storage facility on St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.
美国总统川普将于11月8-10日访问中国，进行一系列的双边贸易商定并和中国国家主席习近平进行一次会谈。这次访问中的贸易会谈将涉及到40家美国公司，吸引中国资本到美国投资。而会谈中的重头戏则是中石化公司在美国德克萨斯州维京群岛的石油管道设施建设项目，据Bloomberg援引的消息透露。
Bangladesh signs deal with China | 中国援建孟加拉国石油管道
Bangladesh with the assistance of China will construct a 220 km (138 miles) pipeline that includes a 146-km offshore stretch to unload imported oil from ships, a government minister said on Monday.
"Bangladesh and China signed an agreement on Sunday to build this pipeline in the southeast of the country to unload oil from ships in the Bay of Bengal and deliver it onshore," Nasrul Hamid, Bangladesh's junior minister for power, energy and mineral resources told Reuters.
State-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corp currently unloads imported oil via ship-to-ship transfers into small coastal tankers. Once the pipeline project is completed the government will save about 10 billion taka ($120 million) annually on shipping and transfer costs, the minister said.
孟加拉国的一名政府官员透露，中国将帮助孟加拉国建设一条长220公里（146公里位于海面上）的管道用于从油轮上卸装进口的原油。孟加拉国的国有石油公司现有的操作办法是油轮与邮轮的对接，即使用更小的游轮把进口油从孟加拉湾上的巨型油轮上转移过来。而此次的合作项目建成后，孟加拉国每年将节省120亿美元的运输费用。
The potential Sinopec investment in U.S. energy assets and creation of jobs in hurricane-hit areas will not be President Trump’s only mission on his Chinese visit.
According to Reuters, energy firms dominate the provisional list of U.S. companies picked to accompany President Trump in China. A total of ten firms are listed—few of them confirmed to Reuters that they were getting ready to travel to China, but most declined to comment. The companies are Delfin Midstream LLC and Alaska Gasline, etc. Considering this lineup, it’s very probable that President Trump and the Commerce trade mission delegation will negotiate boosting U.S. LNG exports to China.
川普的目的不仅仅是来自中石化的潜在投资和其将为被飓风袭击的地区带来的新工作机会。据信被选中参加贸易的公司大部分是能源公司，尽管具体名单仍待定，它们的总数已经确定（40）。包括Delfin Midstream LLC 和阿拉斯加天然气公司在内的许多潜在公司拒绝发表评论。考虑到这些公司，川普很有可能会与中方协商液化天然气的出口问题。
OPEC | 石油输出国组织
Russia&S.Arabia ready for more work | 俄罗斯沙特等国准备进一步行动
Russia, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are ready to do more work to reduce global oil inventories, the Russian energy ministry said in a statement on Saturday after a meeting of officials from the four countries. "The states-participant signified satisfaction of reducing commercial stocks of oil and stated their readiness to continue (to make) join efforts towards such a direction", the statement said.
OPEC, Russia and other oil producers are due to meet at the end of November in Vienna to decide whether to extend the current supply-cut pact.
According to the Russian Energy Ministry, the formerly Soviet state Turkmenistan will take part at the meeting as an observer. Saudi Arabian oil minister Khalid al-Falih said after the meeting that more work was needed to cut inventories.
“Everybody recognizes that (the) job is not done yet by any means, we still have a significant amount of work to do to bring inventories down. Mission is not yet complete, more needs to be done," he added. He said members of the global pact he had spoken with have expressed the same views.
俄罗斯，沙特，乌兹别克斯坦及哈萨克斯坦等国在周六表示，它们已准备好与其他国家一起为减少全球原油库存而做出更多努力。据俄罗斯能源部长透露，原苏联的加盟国土库曼斯坦也表示将作为旁听者加入会议。沙特能源部长Khalid al-Falih则在四国的会议结束后说会议各方已认识到减少全球原油总库存的工作还远未结束，并表示其他成员国们也表达了相同的看法。
Venezuela to restructure foreign debt | 委内瑞拉将重组债务
Venezuela on Thursday announced plans to restructure its burgeoning foreign debt, a move that may lead to a default by the cash-strapped OPEC nation whose collapsing socialist economy has left its population struggling to find food and medicine.
President Nicolas Maduro vowed to make a $1.1 billion payment on a bond maturing on Thursday, but also created a commission to study "restructuring of all future payments" in order to meet the needs of citizens. Venezuela has few avenues to do that though because of sanctions by the United States that bar American banks from participating in or even negotiating such deals. Thus, Maduro's most readily available resource to ease payments is unilaterally halting them.
The next hard payment deadline for PDVSA (The government and state oil company) is an $81 million bond payment that was due on Oct 12 but on which the company delayed payment under a 30-day grace period. Failing to pay that on time would trigger a default, investors say. That would likely make countries less willing to do business with Venezuela, aggravating shortages of food and medicine and creating further problems for its all vital oil industry that is already hobbled by under-investment.
OPEC成员国委内瑞拉在周四透露了重组其国外债务的计划，这一计划则被认为可能会最终指向信用违约。总统马杜罗宣称将会在本周四一份债券到期后支付11亿美元，但他同时也宣布将就未来到期债务的支付进行重组。外界认为受到美国制裁的委内瑞拉并没有多少条路可以选择，而最终的结果很可能就是委内瑞拉单方面的信用违约。若该情况发生，委内瑞拉国内的食物和医疗短缺情况将进一步恶化，其赖以生存的石油产业也将因缺乏投资而受到打击。
Wall St. for years pumped billions of dollars into Venezuela by way of bond purchases, passing off the revolutionary rhetoric of the ruling Socialist Party as bluster that belied an iron-clad willingness to pay its debts.
Maduro surprised many by maintaining debt service after the 2014 crash in oil prices, diverting hard currency away from imports of food and medicine toward Wall St. investors. They carried out a debt renegotiation in 2016.But that option was taken off the table after U.S. President Donald Trump levied sanctions blocking the purchase of new debt issued by Venezuela and government-owned entities.
多年来华尔街帮助上百亿美元的资金流入瑞内瑞拉，并说服债权人相信委内瑞拉会偿还债务。在2014年油价大幅下跌之后，马杜罗成功的通过进口食物药品转移了硬通货，这使很多人非常惊讶。然而现在这一选项因为总统川普禁止购买任何由委内瑞拉政府发行的债务而不复存在。
The Week Ahead
核心原油数据日期
Glossary 术语表
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (or simply OPEC), is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela). As in 2016, it has extended to 14 countries accounted for an estimated 44 percent of global oil production and 73 percent of the world's "proven" oil reserves, giving OPEC a major influence on global oil prices.
Brent Crude is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. This grade light and sweet, extracted from the North Sea and comprises Brent Blend, Forties Blend, Oseberg and Ekofisk crudes. It is also known as Brent Blend, London Brent and Brent petroleum.
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), also referred to as the OPEC Basket, is a weighted average of prices for petroleum blends produced by OPEC members. It is used as an important benchmark for crude oil prices.
Table 13 Source: Bloomberg ICE Brent future price.
Table 14 Source: Bloomberg NYMEX WTI Futures minus ICE Brent Futures Monthly Oct17.
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Sources