Oil Market Weekly Review | 石油市场周回顾 -11/29/2017
Contents | 目录
U. S. | 美国
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | 美国能源署石油周报
Refinery & Production | 原油精炼与产出量
Supply | 供给量
Import & Export | 进出口
Inventories | 库存量
Price | 价格
Remarks | 评点
China | 中国
China takes aim at the Petrodollar | 人民币支付挑战美元地位
China refineries run at record high in Sept | 中国9月炼油增速
Remarks | 评点
OPEC | 石油输出国组织
Ecuador to request output cut exemption | 厄瓜多尔寻求退出减产计划
Recent Highlights | 近期要闻
OPEC favors 9-month extension to output cut | OPEC期望再度延长减产计划
Remarks | 评点
The Week Ahead | 核心原油数据日期
Appendix | 附录
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U.S. | 美国
Refinery & Production | 原油精炼与产出量
As shown in table 1, by 10/13, U.S. crude oil input to refineries was 15.975 million barrels/day. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.4 million barrels/day during last week, 819,000 barrels/day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 84.5% of their operable capacity on average. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging over 10 million barrels/day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels/day.
如图1所示，截止到10月13号， 上周美国原油精炼原料投入为1597.5万桶／天。一周平均值超过1540万桶／天， 比前一周相比减少81.9万桶/天。原油精炼产量为实际产能的84.5%。上周汽油产量有所增加，一周平均值超过1000万桶／天。馏分油产量有所减少，一周平均值为480万桶／天。（参见图1）
Table 1 Source: EIA. Numbers shown above are ending stocks.
Table 2 Source: Bloomberg Baker Hughes United States Crude Oil Rig Count Data
As in table 2, by October 20, the U.S. crude oil rotary rigs number was 736, decreasing by 7 compared to 743 last week. This is the 6th drop in the recent 7 weeks and the 3rd consecutive decrease.
如图2所示，上周美国的活跃原油钻井数减少了7，为736。 这是此项数据在7周内出现的第6次下降，也是近期连续的第3次下降。
Table 3 Source: Bloomberg DOE crude oil total production data.
Supply | 供给量
As in table 4, by 10/13, total products supplied was 19.918 million barrels/day. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 19.9 million barrels/day, down by 0.7% from the same period last year. Motor gasoline supplied was 9.345 million barrels/day. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.3 million barrels/day, up by 2.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied was 3.72 million barrels/day, averaged over 3.7 million barrels/day over the last four weeks, down by 6.4% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 2.5% compared to the same four- week period last year.
如图4所示， 截止到10月13号，石油产品总供应为1991.8万桶／天， 过去四周平均值超过1990万桶／天，与去年同期相比减少了0.7%; 汽油产品供应为934.5万桶／天， 过去四周平均值超过930万桶／天，比去年同期增加2.9%; 馏分油产品供应为372万桶／天， 过去四周平均供给超过370万桶／天，比去年同期减少6.4%。航空燃油产品供给增加了2.5%。（图1与图4的差值部分为出口量）
Table 4 Source: EIA.
Import & Export | 进出口
As mentioned in EIA's weekly report, by 10/13, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.5 million barrels/day last week, down by 134,000 barrels/day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.4 million barrels/day, 1.9% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 690,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 107,000 barrels per day last week.
如EIA周报中所提到的，截止到10月13号，上周美国原油进口数平均为750万桶／天，与前一周相比减少了134，000桶／天。在过去的四周里，原油进口平均超过740万桶／天，比去年同期相比减少1.9%。车用汽油(包括成品油和混合组分油)总进口为平均69万桶／天。馏分油进口为平均107，000桶／天。（详细细节参见图5-7）
The details of imports, exports and net imports are shown in table 5-7 below:
Table 5 Source: EIA.
Table 6 Source: EIA.
Table 7 Source: EIA.
Inventories | 库存
As in table 8, by 10/13, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 456.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased 0.9 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased last week, but blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 8.7 million barrels last week.
如图8所示，截止到10月13号，上周美国的原油库存（不包含战略原油库存）减少了570万桶，为45650万桶。原油库存量接近于年同期平均数的最高值。车用汽油的库存增加了90万桶，仍处于年同期平均较高位置水平。 成品汽油库存有所增加，但混合组分油库存则有所减少。 馏分油库存增加了50万桶，处于年同期平均数的较低位水平。丙烷／丙烯存量减少了10万桶。商业原油及产品油总数减少了870万桶。（参见图8）
Table 8 Source: EIA.
Table 9 Source: Bloomberg DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory data (excluding SPR)
Table 10 Source: Bloomberg DOE Total Change IN Crude Oil Total Inventory data (excluding SPR)
Price | 价格
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude future price fluctuated last week. Starting from 51.60 $/barrel on Oct 11, WTI crude future price kept fluctuating until it reached the highest level in the week, 52.26$/barrel on Wednesday. Overall, WTI crude future fluctuated, but barely changed compare to last week and ended up with a price level of 51.99$/barrel on Friday, Oct 20.
WTI原油价格上周持续波动 ,11月到期的WTI原油期货价格在美东时间10月11号为51.60美元／桶，之后在本周三上涨至52.26美元／桶的一周最高价格。经过一周的小幅波动后，WTI原油期货价格与上周相比变化不大，最终达到 10月20号 的51.99美元／桶的价格。
Table 11 Source: Bloomberg WTI crude future price for the past 6 months.
Table 12 Source: Bloomberg WTI crude future price for the past month.
Remarks | 评点U.S. commercial stocks of crude oil have dropped 15 percent from their March records, to 456.5 million barrels, below levels seen last year. Part of this drawdown has been due to rising exports as a result of the steep discount of U.S. crude to Brent, which makes it attractive for American producers to export their oil. Shipping data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that overseas U.S. crude oil shipments have soared from virtually zero before the government loosened export restrictions in late 2015 to around 2.6 million bpd in October. Additionally, crude futures price curves are in backwardation, which makes it attractive to sell produced oil immediately rather than store it for later dispatch.
美国的商业原油库存与今年3月的数据相比已经下降了15%，这是去年同期所没有的现象。造成这一现象的部分原因是美国日益增长的原油出口。由于WTI原油与Brent相比所具有的价格优势，使得美国的原油生产商们加大了出口力度。 从Thomson Reuters Eikon的数据可以看到，美国在2015年底放宽出口后，从美国向外的原油出口从几乎为0增加到了今年10月的260万桶／天。另外，由于原油期货的价格曲线正处于现货升水的状态，使得生产商们更倾向于把原油立刻卖掉，而不是堆积库存。
China | 中国
China takes aim at the Petrodollar | 人民币支付挑战美元地位
China, the world’s top crude oil importer and key oil demand growth driver is now determined to get as many oil exporters as possible on board with accepting yuan payments for their oil. China is now trying to persuade OPEC’s kingpin and biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, to start accepting yuan for its crude oil. If the Chinese succeed, other oil exporters could follow suit and abandon the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Some experts believe that the Chinese will “compel” the Saudis to accept to trade oil in yuan.
Other analysts warn that the true test of China’s push for a yuan oil trade will be if the Saudis are willing to risk the anger of the U.S. by accepting yuan payments. The other option isn’t much better for the Saudis—if they continue to resist trading in yuan, they risk losing further market share of the world’s top crude oil importer and possibly the snub of Chinese investors for the much-hyped IPO of Saudi Aramco next year. Chinese sovereign wealth funds and major state companies have deeper pockets than major institutional investors in the West.
中国作为世界上最大的原油进口国和推动石油需求增长的重要力量，已下定决心要说服原油出口国家们接受使用人民币作为支付交易的货币。鉴于沙特在OPEC中的重要地位，中国正试图说服沙特率先接受使用人民币来进行原油交易。如果中国成功说服沙特，其他国家也很可能跟随沙特的脚步放弃使用美元，转而使用人民币。一些专家认为中国会“强迫”沙特接受这一条件。
其他分析师们则警告若接受中国在石油交易中推行的人民币支付，沙特则会承担惹怒美国的风险。然而沙特若选择拒绝，则沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司有可能会失去来自中国的投资并进一步失去在中国市场的市场份额。毕竟，中国政府和国有企业资金的雄厚是其他西方投资者们无法比拟的。
China refineries run at record high in Sept | 中国9月炼油增速
China’s oil refineries increased their run rates by 12.7 percent to a record for September, data showed on Thursday. Processing volumes in September were up 12.7 percent compared with the same month a year ago at 49.34 million tonnes, or 12 million barrels per day (bpd). That was also an increase on August’s 11.1 million bpd, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
China National Offshore Oil Co’s 200,000-bpd Huizhou plant, in southern Guangdong province, started test runs in late September, becoming the second new major refinery brought on stream this year. PetroChina started trial production at its 260,000 bpd Yunnan plant, near the southwestern city of Kunming, at end of June. For the first three quarters of the year, refinery output rose 4.7 percent from the same period last year to 418.4 million tonnes.
据中国国家统计局数据显示，中国的原油精炼厂在今年9月的生产投入率增加了12.7%。与去年同期相比，生产投入的原油量增加了4934万吨（约1200万桶），年同期增量为12.7%。 这一数据与8月相比也有1110万桶的增长。中国海洋石油公司在广东惠州的油田，具有20万桶每天的产能，在上月底刚刚投入生产。而中国石油在云南昆明的油田，具有26万桶／天的产能，也在6月底刚投入试生产。今年的前3个季度中国的原油精炼产品产量从去年的41840万吨增长了4.7%。
Remarks | 评点For China, an Aramco investment could increase Beijing’s bargaining power to convince Aramco to accept yuan payments. Although there’s no indication yet that Aramco would want yuan for its oil, the Saudis say they’re willing to consider issuing yuan-denominated bonds, in what could be a break from the practice to issue debt only in U.S. dollars. Another fact worth attention is that though China’s refined products grew at a record high speed in September, its domestic crude oil production fell 2.9 percent on year to 15.53 million tonnes, or 3.78 million bpd.
对中国来说，想沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司进行投资能增加说服沙特接受使用人民币进行支付的筹码。尽管没有证据显示沙特方面会接受使用人民币，但他们表示会考虑发行人民币债券，这可能会打破沙特方面只发型美元债券的惯例。另一值得关注的事实则是，虽然中国9月份的原油精炼产品大幅增产，他们的原油产量却下降了2.9%，为1553万吨（378万桶／天）。
OPEC | 石油输出国组织
Ecuador to request output cut exemption | 厄瓜多尔寻求退出减产计划
Ecuador's oil minister said on Thursday the Andean country would ask in November to be exempt from OPEC production quotas, citing fiscal problems because of lower crude prices.
Ecuador is seeking support for its request from OPEC members including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, as their oil minister Carlos Perez told journalists during a visit to a jungle oil field, "Ecuador will request authorization to give us the possibility of not complying with the goals set by OPEC." OPEC's smallest member faces a huge fiscal deficit and funding needs because of low oil prices and a devastating earthquake last year. The Andean country plans to increase crude production by 50,000 barrels per day by 2018, with the addition of new reserves to be exploited in the Tiputini and Tambococha fields.
OPEC favors 9-month extension to output cut | OPEC期望再度延长减产计划
OPEC members are reportedly forming a consensus around extending their production cutting deal with other crude exporters by nine months, a move that would help to put a floor under oil prices. This would prolong the agreement among OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing nations to keep 1.8 million barrels a day off the market through the whole of next year. The exporters reached the deal last December and have already extended the agreement once through March of 2018.
Reuters that OPEC may not agree to the extension at its next policy meeting in November. Instead, they may wait until early next year to make a final decision.
据可靠消息OPEC的成员国们正就延长减产计划9个月这一事项达成共识。若这一决定通过，则有助于OPEC和其他原油出口国于下一年减少180万桶／天产量的计划。这些原油出口国家们此前已经将原定于今年12月到期的减产计划延长了3个月。据路透社透露，OPEC可能不会选择在11月的峰会上通过这一计划，而是等到下一年再做出最后决定。
Remarks | 评点OPEC may put off the decision at its Nov. 30 meeting if demand for crude oil and petroleum products remains strong. OPEC and the International Energy Agency have recently reported that demand has improved, though the IEA raised concerns about future consumption growth in its latest report.
若原油和产品油的需求能持续走高，则OPEC很可能会在11月30的会议上选择推迟作出决定。尽管世界能源署对未来原油的消耗增长抱有疑问，OPEC和世界能源署最近都认为对于原油的需求已有所增长。
The Week Ahead
Glossary 术语表
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (or simply OPEC), is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela). As in 2016, it has extended to 14 countries accounted for an estimated 44 percent of global oil production and 73 percent of the world's "proven" oil reserves, giving OPEC a major influence on global oil prices.
Brent Crude is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. This grade light and sweet, extracted from the North Sea and comprises Brent Blend, Forties Blend, Oseberg and Ekofisk crudes. It is also known as Brent Blend, London Brent and Brent petroleum.
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), also referred to as the OPEC Basket, is a weighted average of prices for petroleum blends produced by OPEC members. It is used as an important benchmark for crude oil prices.
Table 13 Source: Bloomberg ICE Brent future price.
Table 14 Source: Bloomberg NYMEX WTI Futures minus ICE Brent Futures Monthly Oct17.
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