Oil Market Weekly Review | 石油市场周回顾 -12/10/2017
Contents | 目录
U. S. | 美国
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | 美国能源署石油周报
Refinery & Production | 原油精炼与产出量
Supply | 供给量
Import & Export | 进出口
Inventories | 库存量
Price | 价格
Remarks | 评点
China | 中国
U.S. became China's 9th crude oil supplier | 美国成为中国第九大原油进口国
China needs new LNG import terminals | 中国急需新增液化天然气进口口岸
Remarks | 评点
OPEC | 石油输出国组织
OPEC extends cuts to the end of 2018 | OPEC 延长减产至2018年年底
Recent Highlights | 近期要闻
OPEC output falls to lowest since May | OPEC原油产量创新低
Remarks | 评点
The Week Ahead | 核心原油数据日期
Appendix | 附录
Add Wechat, Get Bonus | 添加微信送福利 🎁
关注公众号回复【宏观】领取第三季度投资策略 💹
添加管理员微信不定期分享研报福利 🎉
讨论全球金融热点, 每日分享优质文章 📘
· AlphaNYC Admin | 管理员 ·
U.S. | 美国
Refinery & Production | 原油精炼与产出量
As shown in table 1, by 12/01, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending December 1, 2017, 192,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging about 9.8 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.4 million barrels per day.
如图1所示，截止到12月01号， 上周美国原油精炼原料投入为1691.9万桶／天。一周平均值约为1720万桶／天， 比前一周相比增加19.2万桶/天。原油精炼产量为实际产能的93.8%。上周汽油产量有所减少，一周平均值约为980万桶／天。馏分油产量有所增加，一周平均值为540万桶／天。（参见图1）
Table 1 Source: EIA. Numbers shown above are ending stocks.
Table 2 Source: Bloomberg Baker Hughes United States Crude Oil Rig Count Data
As in table 2, by December 8, the U.S. crude oil rotary rigs number was 751, increasing by 2 compared to 749 last week, another rise after last week’s slight increase. It’s at the highest level since early September.
如图2所示，上周美国的活跃原油钻井数增加了2，为751。 这是继前一周增长后的又一次小幅上升，也是这一数据自9月初后的最高水平。
Table 3 Source: Bloomberg DOE crude oil total production data.
Supply | 供给量
As in table 4, by 12/01, total products supplied was 19.664 million barrels/day. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged about 19.7 million barrels per day, up by 0.5% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels per day, up by 0.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 0.6% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 3.6% compared to the same four-week period last year.
如图4所示， 截止到12月01号，石油产品总供应为1966.4万桶／天， 过去四周平均值约为1970万桶／天，与去年同期相比增加了0.5%; 汽油产品供应为909.7万桶／天， 过去四周平均值超过910万桶／天，比去年同期增加0.5%; 馏分油产品供应为392.6万桶／天， 过去四周平均供给超过390万桶／天，比去年同期增加0.6%。航空燃油产品供给增加了3.6%。
（图1与图4的差值部分为出口量）
Table 4 Source: EIA.
Import & Export | 进出口
As mentioned in EIA's weekly report, by 12/01, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.2 million barrels per day last week, down by 127,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.6 million barrels per day, 4.9% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 488,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 145,000 barrels per day last week.
如EIA周报中所提到的，截止到12月01号，上周美国原油进口数平均约为720万桶／天，与前一周相比减少了127，000桶／天。在过去的四周里，原油进口平均为760万桶／天，与去年同期相比减少4.9%。车用汽油(包括成品油和混合组分油)总进口为平均48.8万桶／天。馏分油进口为平均14.5万桶／天。（详细细节参见图5-7）
The details of imports, exports and net imports are shown in table 5-7 below:
Table 5 Source: EIA.
Table 6 Source: EIA.
Table 7 Source: EIA.
Inventories | 库存
As in table 8, by 12/01，U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 448.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 6.8 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week.
如图8所示，截止到12月01号，上周美国的原油库存（不包含战略原油库存）减少了560万桶，为44810万桶。原油库存量处于年同期平均数的较高位水平。车用汽油的库存与前一周相比增加了680万桶，仍处于年同期平均中间位置水平。 成品汽油库存有所减少而混合组分油库存有所增加。 馏分油库存增加了170万桶，但处于年同期平均数的较低位水平。丙烷／丙烯存量增加了130万桶。商业原油及产品油总数与前一周相比减少了250万桶。（参见图8）
Table 8 Source: EIA.
Table 9 Source: Bloomberg DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory data (excluding SPR)
Table 10 Source: Bloomberg DOE Total Change IN Crude Oil Total Inventory data (excluding SPR)
Price | 价格
Overall, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude future price fluctuated this week. Starting from 57.47 $/barrel on Dec 04, WTI crude future price decreased to under 56$/barrel first and then rose back until it rose back to 57.34$/barrel on Friday, Dec 8st.
WTI原油价格本周持续波动 ,1月到期的WTI原油期货价格在美东时间12月4号为57.47美元／桶，之后先降低到低于56美元/桶的价格，后又回升直至达到本周五的57.34美元／桶的水平。总的来说，WTI原油期货价格上周变化不大。
Table 11 Source: Bloomberg WTI crude future price for the past 6 months.
Table 12 Source: Bloomberg WTI crude future price for the past month.
Remarks | 评点Oil prices dipped on Friday when market opened, weighed down by a strengthening U.S. dollar, although China's relentless thirst for crude and OPEC-led supply cuts prevented further falls. Traders said a stronger dollar, which has gained over 0.9 percent this month against a basket of other leading currencies, was weighing on prices.
Preventing prices from sliding further was booming oil demand from China, which will this year overtake the United States as the world's biggest crude importer. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, said healthy global demand and tight supplies should see Brent crude oil rise to $70 per barrel by mid-year.
本周五早些时候，油价与周四闭市相比有所下降，这是受到美元升值和OPEC延长减产计划的决定的影响 。美元在过去的一个月内相比于一篮子其他货币升值了9%，投资者们认为这是油价被打压的原因。阻止油价进一步下跌的是来自中国的强劲需求，和持续增长的世界原油总需求量。
China | 中国
U.S. became China's 9th crude oil supplier | 美国成为中国第九大原油进口国
Chinese crude oil purchases from the United States jumped by 77.3 percent from September to average 208,000 bpd in October, helping the U.S. to become China’s ninth largest crude oil supplier, according to data by China’s General Administration of Customs.
The U.S. had not exported crude oil to China in October last year. However, this year, China has been a consistent buyer of U.S. oil, and it even outranked Canada as America’s biggest buyer in April, according to the latest available monthly EIA data through August.
据中国海关的统计数据显示，中国从美国进口的原油自9月增加了77.3%至10月的平均208，000桶每天，也使得美国成为中国的第九大原油进口国。去年10月中国并没有从美国进口原油，而今年中国则持续从美国进口原油，美国也在今年4月至8月成为了中国在美洲最大的原油进口国。
China needs new LNG import terminals | 中国急需新增液化天然气进口口岸
China needs new LNG import terminals so that the import pace can keep up with rising demand, according to a new report by S&P Global Platts.
Capacity at northern and eastern terminals is currently at 130 percent despite high prices from rising winter demand. Chinese players told Platts they were cautious about authorizing new shipments since the import terminals had reached bottlenecks and other constraints. One possible solution to the LNG shortage is transporting gas from southern regions to areas with high needs. But another source said this may be a logistical nightmare because the poorly built pipeline infrastructure connecting both ends can't afford a surge in winter gas demand.
Between January and October, Chinese purchases of North American crude oil soared to 150,000 bpd from 15,500 bpd for the same period last year, driven by increased imports from the U.S. On the other hand, China is also boosting its natural gas demand.
In July, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that China would account for 40 percent of the global annual growth in natural gas demand over the next five years. Chinese imports of natural gas are running at record rates as Beijing pushes on with its cleaner energy agenda that should see the country satisfy 10 percent of its energy needs with gas in 2020, up from what was only 5.9 percent in 2015.
今年1月至10月之间，中国从北美洲进口的原油从去年的150，000桶/天增加到155，000桶/天，这其中主要增长的是从美国的进口。另一方面，中国的天然气需求也在飞速增长。据IEA在7月预测，未来5年内中国将占据世界天然气需求增长的40%。中国正以创纪录的速度进口天然气，这是因为北京已经定下了目标，规定截止到2020年中国能源总需求的10%将由天然气供应，这一数据现时为5.9%。
OPEC | 石油输出国组织
OPEC extends cuts to the end of 2018 | OPEC 延长减产至2018年年底
OPEC and its allies outside the group agreed to maintain oil production cuts until the end of 2018, extending their campaign to wrest back control of the global market from America’s shale industry.
After a day of talks in Vienna on Nov 30, the decision showed the strength of the unprecedented alliance between the world’s top two oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, and confounded Wall Street analysts who’d predicted Moscow would be reluctant to keep going. The deal was even beefed up through the inclusion of Nigeria and Libya, two members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries originally exempted from the curbs.
为使油价能从美国页岩油产业的影响中脱离出来，OPEC与其盟友上周宣布将延长减产计划至2018年年底。经过11月30日在维也纳一天的商讨，这一决定显示了世界最大的两个产油国家：沙特和俄罗斯之间的同盟协作关系，也回击了那些宣称俄罗斯不会继续减产的预测。这次延长减产甚至包括了尼日利亚和利比亚，这两个国家原本被豁免于此前的减产计划。
OPEC output falls to lowest since May | OPEC原油产量创新低
OPEC oil output fell in November by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its lowest since May, a Reuters survey found, pressured by a drop in Angolan and Iraqi exports, strong compliance with a supply cut deal and involuntary declines. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reducing output by about 1.2 million bpd as part of a deal with Russia and other non-member producers, which have also committed to production cuts.
OPEC's adherence to pledged supply curbs rose to 112 percent from October's 92 percent, the survey found. Top exporter Saudi Arabia pumped below its OPEC target, as did all other members except Ecuador, Gabon and the United Arab Emirates.Venezuela on Thursday announced plans to restructure its burgeoning foreign debt, a move that may lead to a default by the cash-strapped OPEC nation whose collapsing socialist economy has left its population struggling to find food and medicine.
据路透社透露消息 ，OPEC11月的原油产量下降了30万桶/天，达到今年5月以来的最低值。这其中的主要原因是安哥拉与伊拉克减少了出口，各国为遵守减产协约付出的努力和一些其他不可抗因素。OPEC正与俄罗斯等国一起，以120万桶/天的速度减少产量。路透社同时透露，OPEC 减产计划的完成比例已从10月的92%上升至11月的112%，除厄瓜多尔，加蓬和阿联酋以外的成员国都在以比计划目标更低的速度生产原油。而委内瑞拉于上周四宣布重组外债，这也加大了其信用违约的可能性。
Remarks | 评点Oil is trading near a two-year high supported by falling inventories, strong demand and high compliance with the promised curbs. The producers at a Nov. 30 meeting extended the deal until the end of 2018, as expected.
OPEC last year announced a production target of 32.50 million bpd. The target includes Indonesia, which has since left OPEC, and does not include Equatorial Guinea, the latest country to join. According to the Reuters survey, output in November has averaged 32.35 million bpd, about 600,000 bpd above the target adjusted to remove Indonesia and not including Equatorial Guinea.
由于全球库存减少，需求的增加和OPEC的减产，原油价格已达到接近两年内的最高值，而OPEC也已如预期的于上月底决定延长减产至2018年年底。OPEC去年宣布的目标产量为3250万桶/天，这一数字包括了已经推出组织的印尼，没有包含最新加入组织的赤道几内亚。该组织11月的产量为3235万桶/天，考虑到印尼和几内亚，比预期目标高了约60万桶/天。
The Week Ahead
核心原油数据日期
Glossary 术语表
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (or simply OPEC), is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela). As in 2016, it has extended to 14 countries accounted for an estimated 44 percent of global oil production and 73 percent of the world's "proven" oil reserves, giving OPEC a major influence on global oil prices.
Brent Crude is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. This grade light and sweet, extracted from the North Sea and comprises Brent Blend, Forties Blend, Oseberg and Ekofisk crudes. It is also known as Brent Blend, London Brent and Brent petroleum.
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), also referred to as the OPEC Basket, is a weighted average of prices for petroleum blends produced by OPEC members. It is used as an important benchmark for crude oil prices.
Table 13 Source: Bloomberg ICE Brent future price.
Table 14 Source: Bloomberg NYMEX WTI Futures minus ICE Brent Futures Monthly Oct17.
·END·
Contact: askalphanyc@gmail.com
Sources