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自从Jegadeesh和Titman首先在1993年Journal of Finance上发表了动量因子(Momentum Factor)的研究成果之后(Jegadeeshand Titman, Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency, 1993,简而言之,动量因子就是采取逢高买进,逢低卖出的策略所取得的回报),由于它显著的超额回报率(market excess return),数十年来一直是学术界经久不衰的研究课题之一,研究范围包括各个资本市场,各种资产类型,各种时间跨度。例如:
关于S&P的: Style Momentum Within the S&P 500 Index (Chen and De Bondt, 2004) 和 Cross-Asset Style Momentum (Kim,2010)
美国行业/板块: Do Industries Explain Momentum? (Moskowitz and Grinblatt, 1999), Understanding the Nature of the Risks and Sources of Rewards to Momentum Investing (Grundy andMartin, 1998)
美国小盘股: Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies (Hong et al, 1999)
欧洲股票市场: International Momentum Strategies,(Rouwenhorst, 1997)
英国股票市场: The Profitability of Momentum Investing, (Lui et al, 1999), Momentum in the UK Stock Market (Hon and Tonks,2001)
中国股票市场: Contrarian and Momentum Strategiesin the China Stock Market: 1993-2000 (Kang et al, 2002), The “Value” Effect and the Market for Chinese Stocks (Malkiel and Jun, 2009), Momentum and Seasonality in Chinese Stock Markets (Li, Qiu, and Wu, 2010) 和 Momentum Phenomenon in the Chinese Class A and B Share Markets (Choudhry and Wu, 2009)
日本股票市场: Eureka! A Momentum Strategy that Also Works in Japan (Chaves , 2012)
澳洲股票市场: Do Momentum Strategies Work?: Australia Evidence, (Drew, Veeraraghavan, and Ye, 2004)
瑞士股票市场: Momentum and Industry Dependence (Herberger, Kohlert, and Oehler, 2009)
新兴股票市场: Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets, (Rouwenhorst, 1999)
前沿新兴股票市场: The Cross-Section of Stock Returns in Frontier Emerging Markets (Groot, Pang, and Swinkels, 2012)
全球股票市场: Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole, (Griffin et al, 2002), International Momentum Strategies (Rouwenhoust, 1998), The Case for Momentum (Berger, Isael, Moskowitz, 2009)
外汇市场: Do Momentum Based Strategies Still Work In Foreign Currency Markets? (Okunev and White, 2003), Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations (Schulmeister, 2006), Momentum in Stock Market Returns: Implications for Risk Premia on Foreign Currencies (Nitschka, 2010), 和 Currency Momentum Strategies (Menkhoff et al, 2011)
大宗商品市场: Momentum Strategies in Commodity Futures Markets (Miffre and Rallis, 2007), The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures (Erb and Harvey, 2006)
技术分析: 52-Week High and Momentum Investing (Georgeand Hwang, 2004).
公司盈利: Momentum Strategies (Chan et al, 2006), Firm-specific Attributes and the Cross-section of Momentum (Sagi and Seasholes, 2007)
在时间维度上: Market States and Momentum (Cooper, Gutierrezand Hameed, 2003), Time-Varying Momentum Profitability (Wang and Xu, 2010), Time Series Momentum (Moskowitz et al, 2011), 212 Years of Price Momentum (Gezcy, 2013), A Century of Evidence on Trend Following (Hurst, Ooi, Pedersen, 2012), Two Centuries of Trend Following (Lempérière, 2014).
还有各种从价格动量 (price momentum)衍生出的变体,例如:
“新鲜”动量: Fresh Momentum (Chen, Kadan and Kose, 2009)
“残余”动量: Residual Momentum (Blitz, Huij and Martens, 2011)
CAPM/Fama-French“残余”动量:Some Tricks to Momentum (SocGen, 2012)
“双重”动量:Risk Premia Harvesting Through Dual Momentum (Antonacci,2013)
“共同”动量: Comomentum: Inferring Arbitrage Activity from Return Correlations (Lou and Polk, 2012)
趋势因子: Trend Factor: A New Determinant of Cross-Section Stock Returns (Han and Zhou, 2013)
在跨多种资产的研究中,人们通常把动量因子(Momentum Factor)和价值因子(Value Factor)放在一起研究,例如: Global Tactical Cross-AssetAllocation: Applying Value and Momentum Across Asset Classes (Blitz and VanVliet, 2007), Value and Momentum Everywhere (Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen,2009), Using a Z-score Approach to Combine Value and Momentum in Tactical Asset Allocation (Wang and Kohard, 2012), 和 Size, Value, and Momentum in International Stock Returns (Fama and French, 2011)
也有和反转(Reversal/Mean Reversion)一起研究,例如:Momentum– Reversal Strategy (Yu and Chen, 2011), An Institutional Theory of Momentumand Reversal (Vayanos and Woolley, 2010), Momentum and Mean Reversion across National Equity Markets (Balvers and Wu, 2006), Macromomentum: Returns Predictability in International Equity Indices (Bhojraj, 2001)
至于动量因子产生的原因至今没有定论,投资者的行为偏差(behavior bias)算是其中一个,主要体现在投资者对于自己掌握的信息过于自信,从而导致资产价格对于新信息反应不足(underreaction): Investor Psychology and Security Market Under-and Over-Reactions (Daniel, Hirshleifer, Subrahmanyam, 1998), Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing (Daniel, Hirshleifer, Subrahmanyam,2001)
其他类似的解释例如:
When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction? (Lo and Mackinlay, 1990), A Model of Investor Sentiment (Barberis,Shleifer, Vishny, 1997), A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets (Hong and Stein, 1997), Price Momentum andTrading Volume (Lee and Swaminathan, 1998), Underreactions and Overreactions:The Influence of Information Reliability and Portfolio Formation Rules (Bloomfieldet al, 1998), Rational Momentum Effects (Johnson, 2002)
除此之外,还有从其他不同角度进行解释的,例如:
交易成本(Trading Cost): The Illusory Nature of Momentum Profits (Lesmond, Schill, and Zhou,2004), Trading Cost of Asset Pricing Anomalies (Frazzini, Israel and Moskowitz, 2012)
横截面预期收益(Cross-sectional Expected Returns):Momentum is Not an Anomaly (Dittmar et al, 2007)
知情交易(Informed Trading): Momentum and Informed Trading (Hameed et al, 2008)
市场情绪(Sentiment): Sentiment and Momentum(Doukas et al, 2010)
经济周期 (Business Cycle): Momentum, Business Cycle, and Expected Returns (Chordia and Shivakumar,2002)
文化差异 (Cultural Difference): Individualism and Momentum around the World (Chui, Titman and Wei,2009)
过度协方差(Excess Covariance): Momentum and Autocorrelationin Stock Returns (Lewellen, 2002)
避税 (Tax Loss Harvesting): PredictingStock Price Movements from Past Returns: The Role of Consistency and Tax-LossSelling (Grinblatt and Moskowitz, 2004)
宏观风险溢价 (Macroeconomic Risk Premium): Momentum Profits, Factor Pricing and Macroeconomic Risk Factor (Zhang, 2008)
前景理论(Prospect Theory ): Prospect Theory, Mental Accounting, and Momentum (Grinblatt and Han,2004)
处置效应(Disposition Effect): The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News (Frazzini, 2006),其中前景理论与处置效应均指投资者在处理股票时,倾向卖出赚钱的股票、继续持有赔钱的股票。
回报预期 (Return Expectation): Momentum Trading and Performance with Wrong Return Expectations (Gatev and Ross, 2009)
推定预期 (Extrapolative Expectation): Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns (Greenwood and Shleifer, 2012),Extrapolative Expectations and the Equity Premium (Choi and Mertens, 2013),X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model (Barberis, Greenwood, Jin, Shleifer, 2013),推定预期是行为金融学中专门为解释动量因子而提出的假设,即指人们往往根据最近的变化来预测未来的变化,并不断改变对未来的预期。
另外,动量因子也可以用Fama-French三因子模型来解释: Explaining Momentum within an Existing Risk Factor (Liu, 2012), 或者用风险溢价来解释: Asymmetric Risks of Momentum Strategies (Dobrynskaya, 2014), 或者用动态beta来解释: Dynamic Beta, Time-Varying Risk Premium, and Momentum (Zhang, 2003)
虽然动量策略能够带来市场超额回报(market excess return),但要承担风险,有时候这个风险是巨大的。这就是所谓的“动量崩盘”(Momentum Crash): Momentum Crashes (Daniel and Moskowitz, 2011), Tail Risk in Momentum Strategy Returns (Daniel,Jagannathan and Kim, 2012)。如下两图所示,动量因子在市场触底反弹时的收益率最低。
学者们对此有不同的解释,有的认为是拥挤交易 (Crowded Trades) 造成的: Crowded Trades, Short Covering, and Momentum Crashes (Yan, 2014), 而有的认为是由动量因子本身的性质决定的:Momentum Has Its Moments (Barroso_Clara,2013)
总而言之,动量因子与价值因子是各种资本市场中普遍存在的现象,而且跑赢大盘的时机各有不同。一些我们通常对动量因子的认知都是错误的(Fact, Fiction and Momentum Investing,Asness and Frazzini, 2014)。在投资组合中利用这两者的负相关性,便可获得较高的风险调整后收益 (risk-adjusted return) 和 Sharpe 比率。
作为投资异象(Anomaly)中的成员,动量因子与价值因子的存在(尤其是前者)是对有效市场假设(Efficient Market Hypothesis) 的一个巨大挑战。(Dissecting Anomalies, Fama and French, 2007; On Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance, Carhart, 1997)尽管有效市场假设支持者认为这些异象可以用风险溢价(risk premium)来解释,但是资本市场归根到底是“人”的市场,人的本性在市场交易里暴露无遗,所以投资者的行为偏差(behavior bias)是一个大家比较能接受的解释。
世界知名对冲基金AQR的基金经理Clifford Asness和John Liew(都是Gene Fama的学生)用他们连续数十年稳定优异的基金收益表现告诉我们:有效市场与投资异象共存于这个复杂的真实世界中。有时候,投资者的非理性行为使得资产价格超过了合理模型所能解释的范围,从而打破了有效市场假设。但并不是所有的投资异象都能始终盈利(例如动量崩盘),从而又佐证了有效市场假设。事实上,市场有效是常态,只有少数时候才会出现极端情况。长期来看,要想通过主动管理(active management)取得稳定优异的回报是很困难的,投资过程会受到各种情况影响,稍有不慎,所有可盈利的机会都将付之东流。
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