纽约时报:转基因作物承诺的"增产与减少农药"好处令人质疑
Doubts About the Promised Bounty of Genetically Modified Crops
对转基因作物承诺的好处令人质疑
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/business/gmo-promise-falls-short.html?_r=0
By
A version of this article appears in print on October 30, 2016, on page A1 of the
这篇文章发表于2016年10月30日《纽约时报》第A1版，标题：承诺的好处令人质疑。
Fig1 Arnaud Rousseau, a sixth-generation farmer in France, in a field of rapeseed. Twenty years ago, Europe largely rejected genetic modification at the same time the United States and Canada were embracing it.
LONDON — The controversy over
【伦敦报道】对于转基因作物的争议长期以来集中关注很大程度未得到实证证实的食用不安全恐惧。
【译者评论：《纽约时报》无视独立科学家众多研究结论，作出这样偏听偏信监管机构的误导性评论。】
But an extensive examination by The New York Times indicates that the debate has missed a more basic problem — genetic modification in the United States and Canada has not accelerated increases in crop yields or led to an overall reduction in the use of chemical
但是《纽约时报》深入的审查表明，对于转基因的争论遗漏了一个更为基本的问题 -- 在美国与加拿大种植的转基因作物并没有加速作物单位产量提高，也没有导致总体减少化学农药使用量。
The promise of genetic modification was twofold: By making crops immune to the effects of weedkillers and inherently resistant to many pests, they would grow so robustly that they would become indispensable to feeding the world’s growing population, while also requiring fewer applications of sprayed pesticides.
推出转基因作物时产业界当初作出双重承诺：通过让农作物对除草剂的作用免疫以及使其内在对许多害虫具有抗虫性，转基因作为将生长的如此茂盛以至使其对于喂养不断增长的人口不可缺少，同时只要求喷洒更少的农药。
Twenty years ago, Europe largely rejected genetic modification at the same time the United States and Canada were embracing it. Comparing results on the two continents, using independent data as well as academic and industry research, shows how the technology has fallen short of the promise.
二十年前，欧洲在很大程度上拒绝了转基因作物，在此同时美国与加拿大热烈欢迎它们。比较这两个大陆的结果，使用独立数据以及学术性与产业界的研究，表明“转基因技术”未能够实现这两个方面的承诺。
Fig2 The New York Times |Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | Note: Western Europe is France, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Austria.
《纽约时报》数据来源：联合国世界粮农组织（FAO）。注：“西欧”指法国、德国、比利时、卢森堡、瑞士、荷兰与奥地利。
Fig3 The New York Times|Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | Note: Western Europe is France, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Austria.
《纽约时报》数据来源：联合国世界粮农组织（FAO）。注：“西欧”指法国、德国、比利时、卢森堡、瑞士、荷兰与奥地利。
Meanwhile, in the last decade sugar beet yields in Western Europe have increased more sharply than those in the United States.
在此同时，过去十年西欧的甜菜单位产量比美国提高更为快速。
Fig4 The New York Times|Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | Note: Genetic modification penetration reached 95 percent by 2010, according to the United States Dept. of Agriculture.
G.M.O.s Were Supposed to Lessen Pesticide Use
原本宣传转基因作物将减少农药使用量
Manufacturers also said that genetically modified crops would reduce the need for pesticides. In France, where G.M.O.s are not permitted, pesticide use has significantly declined.
转基因作物企业宣传转基因作物将减少农药使用量。然而，在不允许种植转基因作物的法国，农药使用量显著下降。
Fig5 The New York Times|Source: U.S. Geological Survey
《纽约时报》数据来源：《美国地质调查》（USGS）
Much of the growth in the use of weed killers has come in Monsanto’s Roundup, in which the active ingredient is glyphosate.
美国90年代以来增加的农药使用量很大部分来自孟山都农达除草剂，其活性成分是草甘膦。
Fig6 The New York Times|Source: U.S.D.A. National Agricultural Statistics Service
《纽约时报》信息来源：美国农业部国家农业统计服务
*One hectogram per hectare equals 100 grams (3.5 ounces) per 10,000 square meters (2.5 acres.)
注：每公顷一百克等同于每10,000平方米（2.5英亩）100克（3.5盎司）。
An analysis by The Times using United Nations data showed that the United States and Canada have gained no discernible advantage in yields — food per acre — when measured against Western Europe, a region with comparably modernized agricultural producers like France and Germany.
《纽约时报》用联合国的数据所做的分析表明，（大力推广转基因作物）美国与加拿大与采用类似现代化农业生产国法国与德国为代表的（禁止或极少种植转基因作物）西欧相比，在每英亩生产的粮食收益率方面没有明显优势。
Also, a recent National Academy of Sciences report found t
hat “there was little evidence” that the introduction of genetically modified crops in the United States had led to yield gains beyond those seen in conventional crops.
此外，美国科学院最近的报告发现“有很少证据”认为美国引入转基因作物导致超过传统（非转基因作物）的单位面积产量。
At the same time, herbicide use has increased in the United States, even as major crops like corn, soybeans and cotton have been converted to modified varieties. And the United States has fallen behind Europe’s biggest producer, France, in reducing the overall use of pesticides, which includes both herbicides and insecticides.
在此同时，在主要大豆、玉米与棉花这样的农作物普遍转换为转基因品种后，在美国的除草剂使用量增加了。而且，在减少包括除草剂与杀虫剂农药总使用量方面，美国落在欧洲粮食作物最大生产国（禁止转基因作物种植）法国。
One measure, contained in data from the United States Geological Survey, shows the stark difference in the use of pesticides. Since genetically modified crops were introduced in the United States two decades ago for crops like corn, cotton and soybeans, the use of toxins that kill insects and fungi has fallen by a third, but the spraying of herbicides, which are used in much higher volumes, has risen by 21 percent.
《美国地质调查》数据中包括的检测数据表明农药使用方面的巨大差异。二十年前在美国引入大豆、玉米、棉花等转基因作物以来，杀虫剂与杀真菌剂下降了1/3，但是总使用量更的多的除草剂喷洒量却增加了21%。
By contrast, in France, use of insecticides and fungicides has fallen by a far greater percentage — 65 percent — and herbicide use has decreased as well, by 36 percent.
与此相反，在法国，杀虫剂与杀菌剂使用量减少量为更大的65%，而且除草剂使用量也下降了36%。
Profound differences over genetic engineering have split Americans and Europeans for decades. Although American protesters as far back as 1987 pulled up prototype potato plants, European anger at the idea of fooling with nature has been far more sustained.
对于转基因技术的不同态度造成美国人与欧洲人过去二十年深刻的差异。尽管美国人早在1987年发生了拔除转基因土豆研发品种的抗议，欧洲对欺骗自然想法的愤怒更为浓厚。
In the last few years, the March Against Monsanto has drawn thousands of protesters in cities like Paris and Basel, Switzerland, and opposition to G.M. foods is a foundation of the Green political movement. Still, Europeans eat those foods when they buy imports from the United States and elsewhere.
过去几年，《反对孟山都游行》在法国巴黎、瑞士巴塞尔等城市吸引了成千抗议者，而且，反对转基因食品成为绿色政治运动的基础。尽管如此，欧洲人购买从美国或者其他地方进口的食品时，依然也食用那些食物。
Fig7 In Rowland, N.C., a worker loads G.M. corn seed into a planting machine on Bo Stone’s farm. Mr. Stone values genetic modifications to reduce his insecticide use.
在北卡州罗兰，一位工人在斯通先生的农场将转基因玉米种子装入下种机。斯通显示赞赏减少杀虫剂用量的转基因作物。摄影：Jeremy M. Lange
Fears about the harmful effects of eating G.M. foods have proved to be largely without scientific basis.
食用转基因食品危害性影响的恐惧被证实很大程度上缺乏科学依据。
【译者评论：《纽约时报》无视独立科学家众多研究结论，作出这样偏听偏信监管机构的误导性评论。】
The potential harm from pesticides, however, has drawn researchers’ attention. Pesticides are toxic by design — weaponized versions,
然而，（转基因作物捆绑喷洒的）农药的潜在危害，引起了研究者们的关注。农药从设计上就有毒性 -- 德国纳粹研发的萨林毒气这样的武器化版本 -- 与发育延迟和癌症关联。
“These chemicals are largely unknown,” said David Bellinger, a professor at the Harvard University School of Public Health,
“人们对这些化学品的作用很大程度上缺乏了解”，大卫-贝林格教授说。他是哈佛大学公共卫生学院教授，依据他的研究，美国5岁与以下年龄儿童受到至少一类杀虫剂的危害造成他们的总共丧失1700万智商分。“我们正在对我们的人口做自然实验”，他说，指的是民众接触农业化学品，“我们正在等待恶果显示”。
The industry is winning on both ends — because the same companies make and sell both the genetically modified plants and the poisons. Driven by these sales, the combined market capitalizations of Monsanto, the largest seed company, and
产业界在两方面双赢 -- 因为相同的公司制造与推销转基因作物及其捆绑使用的毒性农药。在这些销售的推动下，孟山都，最大的种子公司，与先正达，瑞士农药巨头的市场资本化合在一起，过去十五年扩大了六倍。孟山都公司与先正达公司分别涉及不同的合并协议，将把他们合并后新的价值各自提高到1000亿美元以上。
When presented with the findings,
见到《纽约时报》提交的分析结果后，孟山都首席技术官罗伯特-T-傅拉雷说，《纽约时报》有选择性采集数据来反映产业差劣。“每位农民都是一位精明的商人，如果不认为提供主要好处的话，农民不会为一种技术支付费用”，他说。“生物技术手段清楚推动单位产量巨大增加。”
Regarding the use of herbicides, in a statement, Monsanto said, “While overall herbicide use may be increasing in some areas where farmers are following best practices to manage emerging weed issues, farmers in other areas with different circumstances may have decreased or maintained their herbicide usage.”
关于除草剂使用量，在一项声明中，孟山都声称，“尽管除草剂的总使用量在农民面临正在出现的野草问题遵从最佳治理操作方式的某些地区可能有所增加，不同情况下的其他地区农民可能减少或者维持其除草剂使用状况。”
Genetically modified crops can sometimes be effective. Monsanto and others often cite the work of Matin Qaim, a researcher at Georg-August-University of Göttingen, Germany, including
转基因作物有时可能有效。孟山都与其他企业往往援引马丁-奎艾姆的工作，德国哥廷根大学研究员。他帮助撰写的一项多项研究的荟萃分析报告发现转基因作物实现了显著产量增加。但是在采访与邮件哦那个，奎艾姆博士说他看到的显著影响大部分来自发展中国家的抗虫品种，特别是印度。
“Currently available G.M. crops would not lead to major yield gains in Europe,” he said. And regarding herbicide-resistant crops in general: “I don’t consider this to be the miracle type of technology that we couldn’t live without.”
“现有的转基因作物在欧洲不会导致重大产量增加”，他说。至于抗除草剂转基因作物一般而言：“我不考虑这是对我们必要的神奇性技术。”
A Vow to Curb Chemicals
承诺抑制化学物质
First came the
头一个转基因作物是1994年的Flavr Savr西红柿，应该更长久保持新鲜。第二年出现的是少量防虫褐色土豆。到1996年，（大豆、玉米、棉花）主要转基因作物在美国开始规模种植。
Monsanto, the most prominent champion of these new genetic traits, pitched them as a way to curb the use of its pesticides. “We’re certainly not encouraging farmers to use more chemicals,” a company executive told The Los Angeles Times in 1994. The next year, in a news release, the company said that its new gene for seeds, named Roundup Ready, “can reduce overall herbicide use.”
孟山都，这些转基因新品种最突出的冠军，鼓吹它们有助于抑制农药使用的手段。“我们当然不鼓励农民使用更多的化学品”，孟山都的一位高官1994年这样告诉《洛杉矶时报》。第二年，在新闻发布稿中，孟山都说它们种子称之为抗草甘膦的新基因，“可以减少除草剂总使用量。”
Originally, the two main types of genetically modified crops were either resistant to herbicides, allowing crops to be sprayed with weedkillers, or resistant to some insects.
起初，两种主要的转基因作物或者抗除草剂，允许作物喷洒草甘膦除草剂，或者对某些虫有抗虫性。
Fig8 Arnaud Rousseau holds non-G.M. corn seed, produced by Pioneer, a unit of DuPont. Credit Ed Alcock for The New York Times
Figures from the
但是，来自美国农业部的数字表明，最主要的转基因大豆使用的除草剂总量过去二十年增加为2.5倍，这种农作物同期种植面积仅增加了不到1/3。
Use in corn was trending downward even before the introduction of G.M. crops, but
then nearly doubled from 2002 to 2010, before leveling off. Weed resistance problems in such crops have pushed overall usage up.
引入转基因玉米前，美国玉米种植用的除草剂趋于减少。引入转基因玉米后，除草剂使用量从2002年到2010年几乎增加了一倍，而后趋于平稳。转基因玉米田中的野草抗除草剂问题推动总体用量上升。
To some, this outcome was predictable. The whole point of engineering bug-resistant plants “was to reduce
State University researcher who studied the environmental risks of pesticides. But the goal of herbicide-resistant seeds was to “sell more product,” he said — more herbicide.
对某些人而言，这种结果是可预测的。研发抗虫作物的主要目的“是减少杀虫剂使用量，而且确实做到了”，约瑟夫-阔瓦彻说，他是俄亥俄州立大学研究农药环境风险的一位退休的研究者。但是研发抗除草剂种子的目标是“卖更多产品”，他说 -- 卖更多的除草剂。
Farmers with crops overcome by weeds, or a particular pest or disease, can understandably be G.M. evangelists. “It’s silly bordering on ridiculous to turn our backs on a technology that has so much to offer,” said Duane Grant, the chairman of the Amalgamated Sugar Company, a cooperative of more than 750 sugar beet farmers in the Northwest.
农作物遭到野草，或某种具体害虫或者疾病的农民，可以理解地成为转基因布道师。“背对提供如此多好处的技术是愚蠢而且近乎荒谬”，端纳-格兰特说。他是与美国西北部750多位甜菜种植农民建立合作社的Amalgamated糖公司董事长。
He says crops resistant to Roundup, Monsanto’s most popular weedkiller, saved his cooperative.
他说，抗草甘膦除草剂农达转基因甜菜，挽救了他的合作社。
But weeds are becoming resistant to Roundup around the world — creating an opening for the industry to sell more seeds and more pesticides. The latest seeds have been engineered for resistance to two weedkillers, with resistance to as many as five planned. That will also make it easier for farmers battling resistant weeds to spray a widening array of poisons sold by the same companies.
但是野草正在全世界对孟山都草甘膦除草剂农达产生抗性 -- 为产业界开辟了销售更多转基因种子与更多农药的机会。最新的种子被转基因抗两种除草剂，研发计划中的转基因作物甚至抗五种除草剂。这样将便于农民对付抗性野草时能够喷洒同一家公司生产的越来越多种类毒性除草剂。
Growing resistance to Roundup is also reviving old, and contentious, chemicals. One is
野草对草甘膦除草剂农达发展的抗性同时推动农民恢复使用旧的、有争议的化学成分，例如2,4-D-丁酯，越南战争中使用的臭名昭著落叶剂橙剂中的一种成分。其潜在的风险长久以来造成科学家的对立并让环保维权团体警觉。
Another is dicamba. In Louisiana, Monsanto is spending
另外一种除草剂是麦草畏。在路易安娜，孟山都投资了近10亿美元建立工厂开始它们。尽管孟山都配方的麦草畏在美国的应用尽管还没获得批准，孟山都公司已经开始销售抗麦草畏的转基因种子 -- 导致已经有报道说，某些农民非法喷洒这种毒素的老版本对邻居造成损害。
High-Tech Kernels
Fig9 Bo Stone, a sixth-generation farmer, in Rowland, N.C. The seeds on Mr. Stone’s farm brim with genetically modified traits.
Two farmers, 4,000 miles apart, recently showed a visitor their corn seeds. The farmers, Bo Stone and Arnaud Rousseau, are sixth-generation tillers of the land. Both use seeds made by DuPont, the giant chemical company that is merging with
To the naked eye, the seeds looked identical. Inside, the differences are profound.
In Rowland, N.C., near the South Carolina border, Mr. Stone’s seeds brim with
genetically modified traits. They contain Roundup Ready, a Monsanto-made trait resistant to Roundup, as well as a gene made byBayer
Another big difference: the price tag. Mr. Rousseau’s seeds cost about $85 for a 50,000-seed bag. Mr. Stone spends roughly $153 for the same amount of biotech seeds.
For farmers, doing without genetically modified crops is not a simple choice. Genetic traits are not sold à la carte.
Mr. Stone, 45, has a master’s degree in agriculture and listens to Prime Country radio in his Ford pickup. He has a test field where he tries out new seeds, looking for characteristics that he particularly values — like plants that stand well, without support.
“I’m choosing on yield capabilities and plant characteristics more than I am on G.M.O. traits” like bug and poison resistance, he said, underscoring a crucial point: Yield is still driven by
That said, Mr. Stone values genetic modifications to reduce his insecticide use (though he would welcome help with stink bugs, a troublesome pest for many farmers). And Roundup resistance in pigweed has emerged as a problem.
“No G.M. trait for us is a silver bullet,” he said.
By contrast, at Mr. Rousseau’s farm in Trocy-en-Multien, a village outside Paris, his corn has none of this engineering because the
“The door is closed,” says Mr. Rousseau, 42, who is vice president of one of France’s many agricultural unions. His 840-acre farm was a site of World War I carnage in the Battle of the Marne.
As with Mr. Stone, Mr. Rousseau’s yields have been increasing, though they go up and down depending on the year. Farm technology has also been transformative. “My grandfather had horses and cattle for cropping,” Mr. Rousseau said. “I’ve got tractors with motors.”
He wants access to the same technologies as his competitors across the Atlantic, and thinks G.M. crops could save time and money.
“Seen from Europe, when you speak with American farmers or Canadian farmers, we’ve got the feeling that it’s easier,” Mr. Rousseau said. “Maybe it’s not right. I don’t know, but it’s our feeling.”