外媒揭秘：美国谈判节骨眼儿上突然强硬，意欲何为 | 外媒说
谈判的节骨眼上突然强硬，
美国究竟想要什么？
第十一轮中美经贸高级别磋商进行之际，美方为何突然态度转变？来看看《华盛顿邮报》专栏作者尤金·罗宾逊（Eugene Robinson）怎么说：
据报道，特朗普政府与中国的贸易谈判一直进展顺利，且本已临近尾声。特朗普指责中国试图在最后一刻违背承诺，但是，从这位总统的过往历史看，并非如此。
The administration's trade talks with China had reportedly been going well and were supposed to be nearing an end. Trump accused the Chinese of trying to renege on concessions at the last minute, but the president's history suggests otherwise.
纽约房地产行业资深人士给我分享了他们所谓的“特朗普标准谈判惯例”——当对方认为事情马上就要解决了的时候，特朗普会卡在最后一刻大发雷霆，希望以特朗普式欺凌来达成更好的协议。Veterans of the high-stakes world of New York real estate have told me about what they described as Trump's standard negotiating practice — pitching some kind of fit at the very last minute, when the other party thought things were settled, in hopes of bullying his way to a better deal.
5月13日，尤金·罗宾逊在《华盛顿邮报》撰写了一篇题为《特朗普根本不知道自己在做什么》的评论文章。
文章中，尤金·罗宾逊称：
这招可能对无权说“不”的分包商奏效，更甚者可能适用于当场发誓绝不再与特朗普谈生意的开发商。
That might work with a subcontractor who doesn't have the power to say no, or even with a fellow developer who vows on the spot never to do business with Trump again.
但是，有哪位有经验的谈判者会认为这点小手腕会对中国，世界第二大经济强国，奏效呢？
But would any skilled negotiator think such a stunt would work with China, the world's second-greatest economic power?
难道中国政府不会以同样的方法回击吗？难道惊慌失措的投资者们不会因此得出结论：那场让他们提心吊胆的，没有胜者全是输家的大规模贸易战已经打响？Wouldn't the Chinese government have to react in kind? And wouldn't startled investors conclude that their fear of a serious trade war — the kind with no winners, only losers — had been realized?
我猜，特朗普意识到，中国并没有真正“支付”关税，而这些成本实际上是由美国消费者承担的，他们将为中国制造的商品支付更高的价格。总统不断在他的推特上撒谎，要么是希望愚弄那些容易上当受骗的人，要么就是他对贸易的无知比我想象的还要严重。
I assume Trump realizes that China isn’t really “paying” the tariffs and that the cost is in fact borne by U.S. consumers, who will pay higher prices for made-in-China goods. Either the president constantly lies about this on his Twitter feed, hoping to fool the gullible, or he’s even more clueless about trade than I imagined.
5月10日，特朗普称，正在继续与中国进行亲切友好的谈判，完全没必要着急，因为中国正在为2500亿美元的商品支付25%的关税。这些巨额支付将直接进入美国财政部。
Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner - there is absolutely no need to rush - as Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products. These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S.
“关税将为我们的国家带来更多财富，甚至超过通过传统方式达成的某个哪怕非常惊人的交易量，而且更容易，更快捷。”
Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our Country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind. Also, much easier & quicker to do.
“如果我们从农民手中购买150亿美元的农产品，远多于中国购买的数量，我们将有超过850亿美元可以用于新的基础设施、医疗以及其他项目。中国会大大减速，我们会自动加速！”
If we bought 15 Billion Dollars of Agriculture from our Farmers, far more than China buys now, we would have more than 85 Billion Dollars left over for new Infrastructure, Healthcare, or anything else. China would greatly slow down, and we would automatically speed up!
5月13日，他重申自己的观点，表示加征关税实际上是由中国来买单。
“让美国消费者负担在中国生效的关税没道理。最近有证据表明，只有4个百分点由美国负担，而21个百分点由中国负担，因为中国对产品的补贴程度非常之高。”
There is no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs, which take effect on China today. This has been proven recently when only 4 points were paid by the U.S., 21 points by China because China subsidizes product to such a large degree.
此外，如果从非关税国家或从美国国内（最好的办法）购买商品，关税就能完全避免。这就是零关税！很多被征收关税的公司会离开中国，前往越南或亚洲其他类似的国家。这就是为什么中国非常想要达成协议的原因！
Also, the Tariffs can be completely avoided if you buy from a non-Tariffed Country, or you buy the product inside the USA (the best idea). That's Zero Tariffs. Many Tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia. That's why China wants to make a deal so badly!
CNN也在报道中指出，特朗普在推文中称“让美国消费者支付关税没道理”的说法，只是想给自己对中国产品加征关税的做法“找理由”。
CNN：事实检查特朗普为避免关税提出的购买美国战略
Fact-checking Trump's Buy America strategy of avoiding tariffs
文章解释道，大多数受到关税影响的中国产品，包括服装和电子元件等，并非在美国制造。对于那些有美国制造可作为替代品的产品，还存在规模化的问题：来自中国的商品数量庞大，而美国公司缺少制造如此大量商品的能力。从这个方面看，特朗普认为“美国消费者负担关税没道理”是错误的。
Most of the Chinese products subject to tariffs simply aren't made in the US, including apparel and electronic components. For those few items where there is an American made alternative, there is also the problem of scalability: US companies simply lack the capacity to create the number of products that come from China. In that regard, Trump's suggestion that there is "no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs" is false.
牛津经济学院首席美国经济学家格雷格·达科称，“这（特朗普的推文）具有误导性。从我们进口中国商品的类型和规模来看，要找到替代品，几乎是不可能的，至少短期内是这样。”
"That's misguided," said Greg Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, on Monday of Trump's notion that US companies can produce the same products at the same scale as China. "The type of imports that we bring in from China and the scale of the imports ... make substitution, at least immediate substitution, nearly impossible."
特朗普称21个百分点的关税由中国人负担，事实真的如此吗？美国媒体和经济学家的研究恐怕要打脸特朗普了！
美国国家经济研究局（The National Bureau of Economic Research）发现，美国消费者承受了关税增长的冲击，该机构在其官方推特上发布了一张图表，清楚显示自2018年贸易摩擦开始，消费者已经累计付出约3030亿美元的关税。
推特空喊都是虚的，来看看这个事实。
MRT：中美贸易战升温，不会很快降温的3个理由
China-US trade war heats up: 3 reasons it won't cool down anytime soon
特朗普政府曾在今年1月份对进口洗衣机征收关税时，提出了一个计算成本的方法，认为由于征收关税，美国创造了1800个就业岗位，而这正是该政策的预期结果。
In fact, the Trump administration inadvertently provided an ideal test case for the calculation of these costs when it imposed a tariff on imported washing machines in January. As it turns out, approximately 1,800 jobs were created in the U.S. as a result of this policy, which was exactly its intended effect.
征收关税还能增加就业岗位？听起来这是一项划算的买卖。但事实上，这简直是无稽之谈！
该报道表示，洗衣机和烘干机的价格上涨实际上让消费者多支出超过15亿美元，这意味着，每增加一个就业机会的成本是81.5万美元。真是一个昂贵又低效的促进就业的方式！
However, the rise in the price of washing machines and, incidentally, dryers, cost consumers over $1.5 billion. This means each job cost $815,000, which is an expensive and inefficient way to boost U.S. employment.
单方面打响贸易战是因为“ 不公平”？
耶鲁大学斯蒂芬·罗奇：美国政客想为自己无能找个替罪羊罢了。
近日，世界报业辛迪加网站刊登一篇题为《美国对中国的错误描述》的文章，作者斯蒂芬·罗奇是美国耶鲁大学杰克逊全球事务研究所高级研究员。
文章称：如今，美国共和党人与民主党人罕见地在一个关键问题上达成了共识：把困扰美国的所有问题都归咎于中国。痛批中国从来没有像现在这样有着如此广泛的号召力。
In a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, America's Republicans and Democrats are now on the same page on one key issue: Blaming China for all that ails the United States. China bashing has never had broader appeal.
斯蒂芬·罗奇认为，美国政客无非是想找中国给自己当“替罪羊”罢了。
说到贸易。2018年，美国是同中国有着4190亿美元的商品贸易逆差。但特朗普——以及大多数美国政界人士不会承认的是，2018年美国同102个国家之间存在贸易逆差。
Consider trade. In 2018, the US had a $419 billion merchandise trade deficit with China. But what Trump – and most other US politicians – won't admit is that the US ran trade deficits with 102 countries in 2018.
这反映了美国国内储蓄严重不足。而国内储蓄不足在很大程度上正是国会和总统不计后果地批准预算赤字造成的。
This reflects a profound shortfall of domestic saving, owing in large part to the reckless budget deficits approved by none other than Congress and the president.
也没有人承认供应链扭曲的问题。这个问题源于，有些进口产品是其他国家制造的，只是在中国组装和出货而已。仅这点估计就将美中贸易不平衡夸大了35%到40%。
Nor is there any recognition of supply-chain distortions – arising from inputs made in other countries but assembled and shipped from China – that are estimated to overstate the US-China trade imbalance by as much as 35-40%.
显然，把中国说成是“让美国再次伟大”的主要障碍会轻松容易得多。
Apparently, it is much easier to vilify China as the major obstacle to making America great again.
再来看看美国提出的“知识产权盗窃”问题。
耶鲁大学斯蒂芬·罗奇认为，有两个关键点非常值得质疑：
1. 数据到底有多少水分；
2.“强制”？精明大美国商人会把核心技术转给竞争对手？
现在大家普遍接受的“真相”是中国每年都在窃取价值数千亿美元的美国知识产权，如同一把尖刀插进了美国高超创新技艺的核心。
It is now accepted “truth” that China is stealing hundreds of billions of dollars of US intellectual property each year, driving a stake into the heart of America's innovative prowess.
美国知识产权防盗委员会估计，2017年，知识产权盗窃让美国经济付出了2250亿到6000亿美元的代价。
According to the accepted source of this claim, the so-called IP Commission, in 2017 IP theft cost the US economy between $225 and $600 billion.
撇开大得离谱的数字估算范围，上述数字所依据的“代理模型”是不可靠的。该模型试图通过毒品走私、贪污腐败、职业欺诈和非法资金流动等不法活动来评估被窃取的商业机密。
Leaving aside the ridiculously broad range of such an estimate, the figures rest on flimsy evidence derived from dubious “proxy modeling” that attempts to value stolen trade secrets via nefarious activities such as narcotics trafficking, corruption, occupational fraud, and illicit financial flows.
中国盗窃知识产权的数据来自美国海关与边境巡逻部门。该部门报告说，它们2015年总计缴获了13.5亿美元的盗版和假冒商品。美国用同样可疑的模型在这个小数目的基础上进行推测，从而得到了全国范围的总估计值，并将总数的87%归罪于中国。
The Chinese piece of this alleged theft comes from US Customs and Border Patrol data, which reported $1.35 billion in seizures of total counterfeit and pirated goods back in 2015. Equally dubious models extrapolate this tiny sum into an aggregate guesstimate for the US and impute 87% of the total to China.
怎么个归罪法，跟CD君一起来看看吧！
为了把中国窃取美国知识产权的“罪名”坐实，美国又搬出“301条款”，从中寻找为向中国加征关税的基本依据。
2018年3月，美国贸易代表公布了“301调查”结果报告，并在其中大肆渲染了转移注意力的次要事实：美国企业与其中国合资伙伴之间的强制技术转让。
Then there is the red herring emphasized in the Section 301 report published by the US Trade Representative (USTR) in March 2018, which provides the foundational justification for tariffs levied on China: forced technology transfer between US companies and their Chinese joint venture (JV) partners.
这里的关键词是“强制”，暗示那些与中国同行自愿签订合同协议的无辜美国企业是被迫放弃其专有技术，以求在中国开展业务。
The key word is “forced,” which implies that innocent US companies that enter willingly into contractual agreements with Chinese counterparts are coerced into surrendering their proprietary technologies in order to do business in the country.
可以肯定的是，合资企业毫无疑问需要共享人员、业务战略、运营平台和产品设计。但指控称这些都是强制的，而且是基于这样一种假设：成熟的美国跨国公司蠢到把核心专有技术交给它们的中国合作伙伴。
To be sure, JVs obviously entail a sharing of people, business strategies, operating platforms, and product designs. But the charge is coercion, which is inseparable from the presumption that sophisticated US multinationals are dumb enough to turn over core proprietary technologies to their Chinese partners.
这是另一个令人震惊的弱证据强指控的例子。令人难以置信的是，美国贸易代表办公室实际上在301条款报告（第19页）中承认，没有确凿的证据可以证实这些“隐性操作”。
This is another shocking example of soft evidence for a hard allegation. Incredibly, the USTR actually admits in the Section 301 report (on page 19) that there is no hard evidence to confirm these “implicit practices.”
一系列操作，让贸易“不公平”变成了最冠冕堂皇的理由。
5月13日，特朗普再次搬出“不公平”的论调，又重复了一遍，中国如何长期占美国便宜，才得以有今天的发展。
China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job).
美国作为世界贸易规则的主要制定者，又拥有成熟的商业体系，双方买卖全靠自愿，完全市场选择的中美贸易怎么就变成“不公平”了。
过去40多年，美国人与中国人做生意都是亏本买卖？资本从来就是逐利的，资本主义国家的商人会做亏本买卖，还一干就40多年？站得住脚么？
爱荷华州参议员：美国上次贸易战结局，至今挂在耻辱柱上
据《今日美国》（USA TODAY）报道，5月15日，爱荷华州参议员查克·格拉斯利(Chuck Grassley)言辞激烈地说，全球经济大萧条、二战、希特勒，我就是想提醒特朗普，翻翻历史看看贸易战究竟带来了什么！
1930年的关税法带来的是全世界的经济萧条，希特勒的崛起和二战的爆发。
Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley on Wednesday blamed a 1930 tariff law for bringing about the Great Depression, the rise of Adolf Hitler and World War II.
“总统先生说他喜欢关税是吧。我想提醒他，斯姆特·霍利关税法导致了经济大萧条，导致了希特勒，导致了二战。结果是什么？6000万人丧生，”格拉斯利说。
"As I like to tell the president when he says he likes tariffs, I try to remind him that Smoot-Hawley brought about the Great Depression, brought about Adolf Hitler, brought about World War II, brought about 60 million people losing their lives as a result of it," Grassley said.
格拉斯利扒开了血淋淋的历史教训：
1930年，时任总统赫伯特·胡佛签署了斯姆特·霍利关税法，提高了各个领域产品的关税（该法案将2000多种进口商品关税提升到历史最高水平）。美国参议院网站将其描述为“国会历史上最具灾难性的法令之一”，并介绍称美国的贸易伙伴对美国采取了报复性关税措施，加剧了经济大萧条。
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which President Herbert Hoover signed in 1930, raised tariffs on a variety of products. The U.S. Senate's website describes the law as "among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history" and said that the United States' trading partners retaliated with their own tariffs, worsening the Great Depression.
格拉斯利谈到同为爱荷华共和党人的胡佛：“他签署了斯姆特·霍利关税法。然后呢，美国变成了贸易保护主义者，全世界都成了贸易保护主义者。这一举措让世界贸易停滞不前，甚至可能是全球经济大萧条的罪魁祸首。
Grassley said of Hoover, a fellow Iowa Republican: "He signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill, and the United States became protectionist, the world became protectionist. It shut down world trade and probably contributed more than any other decision to the Great Depression becoming worldwide.
斯姆特·霍利关税法（The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act）于1930年6月17日经签署成为法律，该法案将2000多种进口商品关税提升到历史最高水平。当时在美国，有1028名经济学家签署了一项请愿书抵制该法案；而在该法案通过之后，许多国家对美国采取了报复性关税措施，使美国的进口额和出口额都骤降50%以上。
我想告诉总统先生，全球化帮了所有人，自由贸易帮了所有人。
"I like to tell the president that globalism has helped everybody. Freeing up trade has helped everybody," Grassley said.
桩桩件件的案例，触目惊心的数据，鲜血淋漓的历史……美国媒体和经济学家们披露的这些事实，美分们能听进去多少？
编辑：王瑜、胡雨濛
实习生：戚琦、陈玉琪
中国日报（ID：chinadailywx）综合华盛顿邮报、CNN、美国报业辛迪加、今日美国等报道