G20前瞻 | 央妈们的烦恼
Five big problems facing central bankers
9月4日G20杭州大会前，发达国家的央行行长先在美国怀俄明州开了个小会，耶伦大妈长袖善舞，多财善贾，只肖引导预期，就不战而屈人之兵，提早替中国给G20定调。不得不承认，无论哪种版本的“全球经济治理”方案，终究逃不出美元政策，而所谓美元政策——当然说到底有政治军事的支撑——从技术层面看，更多反映了美元金融市场不可比拟的深度与广度。
Central bank governors are gathering at the fishing resort of Jackson Hole in Wyoming to discuss how they can dig themselves out of the monetary hole caused by the 2008 financial crash.
中央银行行长们正在怀俄明州渔村杰克逊霍尔开会讨论如何从2008年金融危机导致的货币洞穴中爬出来。
The to zero and beyond, they have pumped trillions of dollars into the global financial system and devised novel ways to make sure most of the money is used to cut the cost of credit to ordinary consumers and businesses.
中央银行把利率降至零，甚至更甚，把数万亿美元打进全球金融市场，以创新手段确保大部分资金用于降低普通消费者和企业的借贷成本。
The aim has been to boost growth and jobs at a time when governments of all colours have refused to ditch their austerity programmes and support productivity enhancing investment.
其宗旨在于促进增长，保障就业，毕竟立场不同的政府都已拒绝通过放弃紧缩政策以支持投资，促进生产力。
译注：并非所有政府都采用紧缩政策以平衡预算，推行安倍经济学的日本就主张积极的财政政策。
Before the conference, deputy US Federal Reserve governor, Stanley Fischer, said monetary policy was not equipped to boost productivity growth. But governments have ignored the pleas of central bankers, , the Bank of England’s Mark Carney, Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank and Haruhiko Kuroda at the Bank of Japan to carry the burden.
会前，美联储副主席斯坦利·费雪表示货币政策的调整目的并非促进生产率增长，但政府无视中央银行家的恳求，让美联储主席耶伦、英格兰银行行长卡尼、欧洲央行行长的垃圾和日本银行的黑田东彦背黑锅。
译注：熟悉经济史的读者应该知道，费雪的意思是货币主义者用来反对凯恩斯主义的主要论点。货币主义大佬米尔顿-弗里德曼主张，一切通货膨胀都是货币的结果，央行的职责就是保证合理的货币总量，而不是刺激经济，但在后危机时代，所有央行行长都在政府压力下成为凯恩斯主义者，央行追求的重要目标似乎是……就业，于是央行的独立性再次受到拷问。
In Jackson Hole, Yellen, Carney’s deputy Nemat Shafik and many others will debate how to piece back together the monetary system so it bears some resemblance to the one that existed before the crash. Under the title Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future, attendees will discuss the hurdles they must leap before they can achieve their stated aim. These include:
在杰克逊霍尔，耶伦、卡尼的副手沙菲克和其他同行将讨论如何收拾残局，重塑货币体系，让其恢复到危机前的某种形态。会议主题是“设计面向未来的有弹性的货币政策框架”，与会者将讨论实现这一目标必须越过的障碍。这些障碍包括：
Markets addicted to low rates
市场依赖低利率
Financial markets sank like a stone in the summer of 2013 when the Fed, believing the world had recovered from the Greek crisis the year before, hinted that it would begin to tighten monetary policy.
2013年夏，金融市场犹如石头沉底，当时美联储认为世界已从一年前的希腊危机中恢复，暗示将开始收紧货币政策。
The so-called “taper tantrum” revealed that several major economies, including Turkey and Brazil, were still addicted to cheap debt after borrowing heavily in the US currency. They faced crippling interest bills if dollar interest rates went up.
所谓“削减恐慌”反映了包括土耳其和巴西在内的几个主要经济体对获取便宜的贷款依然成瘾，此前他们大量借入美元。如果美元利率上调，它们会被利息账单压垮。
Last year the Fed was poised to try again but this was scuppered after the Chinese authorities bungled a depreciation of the yuan, triggering a stock market plunge. Such was the severity of the market reaction, the Fed only managed a 0.25% rise in December.
去年美联储摩拳擦掌，再次准备加息，但中国当局毛手毛脚地让人民币贬值并引发股市跳水后，这一计划被搁浅。市场反应如此严峻，美联储只能在12月加息25个点。
, possibly in September, but the huge volume of borrowing by governments and private corporations, especially among the emerging markets, Brexit, and the slowing US economy continues to make the Fed wary.
费雪说2016年是再次加息的沃土，可能在九月，但政府和私人企业的大规模借贷——尤其是新兴市场，退欧以及美国经济放缓等因素将继续让美联储保持谨慎。
Negative interest rates
负利率
Kuroda recently said he would not rule out a “deepening cut” to the country’s . Draghi has followed the Japanese into negative territory, dragging the Swedish, Danish and Swiss national banks with him.
黑田东彦最近表示他不排除“进一步降低”该国的负利率。德拉吉紧随其后，推行负利率，瑞典、丹麦和瑞士的国家银行也一致行动。
Negative rates mean that commercial banks must pay to keep their funds on deposit with a central bank. The policy aims to encourage commercial banks to do other things with the money – lend it or invest it in riskier assets.
负利率意味着商业银行把钱存在央行要付钱。这一政策鼓励商业银行把钱用在别的地方——贷出或投资风险更高的资产。
But the effect has been to squeeze the gap between lending and borrowing rates, hitting bank profits. Even the Bank of England’s recent interest rate cut to 0.25% is expected to hit the profits of high street lenders.
可结果却是挤压借贷剪刀差，压缩银行利润。英格兰银行最近只降了25个点，也会对伦敦高街的银行家利润产生影响。
Carney has vowed to avoid negative interest rates for just this reason and alongside the base rate cut to 0.25%, he set aside £100bn of cheap loans for the banks with the express aim of maintaining their profit margins.
卡尼承诺不会采纳负利率，原因正在于此。将基准利率下调0.25%的同时，他搁置1000亿英镑银行贷款，明确表明要保证利润率。
Stagnant eurozone
欧元区停滞
Draghi is expected to release further funds later this year to boost lacklustre growth in the eurozone. The 19-member currency zone is trundling along with GDP growth just above 1% but this anaemic rate of expansion is unlikely to improve the dire jobs situation across much of the continent or push inflation closer to the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
预计德拉吉今年将释放更多资金促进停滞的欧元区增长。拥有19个成员国的欧元区步履维艰，GDP增长刚刚超过1%，这种贫弱的扩张速度不可能改善欧洲大陆严峻的就业形势，不可能推动通胀率达到欧洲央行设定的2%目标。
Central bankers worry that for all Draghi’s optimism, Europe is going to be on monetary life support for a generation, as the the wealthy baby boomers of Germany, France and Italy stash their savings rather than spend it. For every euro the boomers stash away or invest in property, the central bank will need to print two just for the economy to inch ahead.
央行担忧，尽管德拉吉很乐观，欧洲一代人都要靠货币来延续生命了，德国、法国和意大利富有的婴儿潮人民存钱，不花钱。婴儿潮存储或投进地产1欧元，央行需要印出2欧元来推动经济。
The latest figures show France beginning to recover and generate some private sector growth but with several countries still in recession and Greece ready to erupt at any time, the eurozone remains a a long-term problem.
最新数据表明，法国开始复苏，私人部门开始增长，可不少国家仍处于衰退之中，希腊随时会爆发危机，欧元区问题长期难以解决。
Fragile emerging markets
新兴市场脆弱
Brazil and Turkey are case studies in how strong emerging market economies can flip into recession, undermining the confidence among global investors that the recovery from 2008 is nearing completion.
巴西和土耳其很典型，它们展示了强劲的新兴市场何以转眼间陷入衰退，让全球投资者失去信心，人们本以为2008年后的复苏正接近完成。
Brazil suffered from the knock-on effects of a slowdown in China, along with a string of domestic scandals, while Turkey found its corporate sector facing extra credit costs following its heavy borrowing in dollars.
巴西受累于中国经济放缓及一系列国内丑闻带来的连锁反应，土耳其则在大量贷入美元后发现企业部门面临着信贷成本的增加。
Both economies were roaring in 2013 at a time when the west was struggling, propping up global growth. Within a couple of years they were in recession while Russia and China’s growth rate had slumped, leaving central banks to delay any return to normality.
2013年，西方陷入困境，这两个经济体则一马当先，推动全球增长。俄罗斯和中国经济减速，巴西和土耳其几年内就陷入衰退，让中央银行推迟回归常态。
货币战争
Some central banks are frank about their determination to make exports more competitive by driving down the value of the local currency. Japan is a case in point.
也有中央银行直言不讳，表明决心通过贬值货币以促进出口，日本就是一例。
Kuroda was appointed by prime minister Shinzo Abe to fire two of the three arrows designed to rescue a stagnant economy – a cut in the cost of credit and a lower yen. A recent rise in the yen against the pound, the yuan and euro is likely to bring further monetary easing this year.
安倍晋三任命黑田东彦，引弓射出安倍经济学三箭中的两支，试图拯救停滞的经济：削减借贷成本，让日元贬值。最近日元兑英镑升值，今年人民币和欧元可能进一步宽松。
Draghi, despite his denials, has embarked on the same mission at the ECB. Almost all the rise in Italian and French exports in the last couple of years can be attributed to a cheaper euro.
尽管拒绝承认，德拉吉也在欧洲央行效仿了，过去几年意大利和法国出口增长的主要原因是欧元贬值。
In London the lower value of the pound was widely seen as a positive post-Brexit benefit, not least by the .
在伦敦，英镑的贬值被很多人视作后退欧时代的好处，尤其英格兰银行。
China has followed the same policy over the last year, sometimes clumsily, at other times without the world taking much notice.
中国去年也执行这一政策，有时笨手笨脚，有时则暗度陈仓。
For all of them the target is the same: the US. They want to drive down the value of their currency to compete with American businesses, which have enjoyed a stellar recovery riding on the back of a cheap dollar.
这些操作的目标都是一样的：美国。他们想通过贬值货币与美国企业竞争，后者借助廉价的美元强势归来。
The fear is that a rise in US interest rates and the value of the dollar is not a step towards normality but a shock that will upset the applecart again.
令人担忧的是，美元利率和美元价值抬高并非回归正常的一步，反而再次打乱了计划，造成冲击。
词汇
scupper
To thwart or ruin 被破坏
例句：The union is calling on the party to find an alternative contractor for the event in Liverpool to avoid it being "scuppered". （BBC，8月18日）
工会要求党派为利物浦的赛事另找一个合同商，避免项目搁浅。
bungle
spoil by behaving clumsily or foolishly 笨手笨脚
例句：It was worsened by an equally epic bungling by regulators when the bubble popped. （《华尔街日报》8月16日）
泡沫破裂后，监管者的拙劣同样令形势恶化。
trundle
move heavily 步履维艰
例句：At the height of summer some 10,000 holidaymakers per day trundle off cruise ships into the alleyways of Santorini, a Greek island. （《经济学人》8月11日）
在夏季高峰期，每天约10000名度假者拖着行李从游船上走向圣托里尼岛的道路上。
applechart
the planning that is disrupted when someone `upsets the applecart' 打乱原定计划
例句：Salveson promises to “upset the applecart” with his candidacy, and he believes he has an outside chance of winning. (《新闻周刊》)
萨尔凡森承诺通过参选来“打乱计划”，他认为他不大可能获胜。
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