弹劾落定，巴西何从？| 纽约时报

With Impeachment Over, Brazil’s Next Challenge Is Its Flailing Economy

BRASÍLIA — Brazilians booed him as he presided over the  of the Olympics in Rio. He has been accused of taking bribes. The economy  is on the cusp of a depression.

巴西利亚。他主持里约奥运会开幕式时，巴西人报以嘘声。他被指控受贿。他要挽救的经济体近乎萧条。

, ’s new president, may have just vanquished his rival, , in the bruising impeachment battle that resulted in .

巴西新总统米歇尔·特梅尔兴许击溃了他的对手罗塞夫 ——历经一场弹劾血斗，终于罢免了罗塞夫。

But for Mr. Temer, the hard part is just beginning.

可对特梅尔而言，艰难的事才刚刚开始。

“Get yourselves into the trenches,” urged Roberto Requião, a senator from Mr. Temer’s party who rebelled by siding with Ms. Rousseff in the impeachment vote. 

与特梅尔同处一党的参议员罗伯托·雷吉昂敦促说：“自己跳进战壕吧。”雷吉昂在弹劾投票中反水，与罗塞夫站在一起。

“Conflict will be inevitable,” he added, warning that Ms. Rousseff’s ouster had cleared the way for an era of intense division in Brazilian society.

“争端不可避免。”他警告说罢黜了罗塞夫，就等于扫清了道路，让巴西社会进入大分裂时代。

The biggest challenge facing Mr. Temer, who largely operated in the  as Ms. Rousseff’s  earlier this year, is evident: the economy.

特梅尔一度是罗塞夫的副总统，屈居其下，今年初与她决裂。特梅尔面临的最大挑战显而易见：经济。

Brazil’s gross domestic product has plunged 9.7 percent on a per-capita basis in the last nine quarters. The downturn, which Goldman Sachs likens to a depression, has even exceeded the 7.6 percent decline during the so-called lost decade of the 1980s, when Brazil fought hyperinflation.

前九个季度，巴西人均国内生产总值下跌9.7%。下滑幅度超过八十年代巴西人抗击高通胀时所谓“失落的十年”，当时经济下滑了7.6%，高盛把当下的情况比作萧条。

Broad swaths of the population are , especially now that unemployment has  to 11.6 percent, from 6.5 percent at the end of 2014. More than 1.7 million Brazilians have lost their jobs in the last year while politicians like Mr. Temer have been battling for power.

各个阶层的人民对整个政治体系怒不可遏，尤其当失业率从2014年底的6.5%攀升至11.6%。去年超过170万巴西人丢掉工作，在这种背景下，特梅尔这样的政治家攫夺权力。

“His attack on our democracy will sink the country even further,” said Judson Albino Coswosk, 25, a university biology student who has accused Mr. Temer of ousting Ms. Rousseff for his own political gain.

修生物专业的25岁大学生Judson Albino Coswosk说：“他攻击我们的民主制度，这将让国家更快沉没。”他指控特梅尔为了实现自己的政治目的而罢黜罗塞夫。

Amid the anger and economic turmoil, Mr. Temer is vowing to push ahead with a range of politically risky economic reforms, including privatization of public companies, limits on public spending and an overhaul of a pension system that currently allows Brazilians to retire at an  of 54.

在怒火与经济动荡中，特梅尔表示要推动一系列具有政治风险的经济改革，包括国有公司私有化、限制公共支出以及彻底改革养老制度，目前这一制度允许巴西人平均54岁退休。

Mr. Temer first took over the presidency on an interim basis in May,  to face impeachment charges. But even with broad support in a fractious Congress, the early results of Mr. Temer’s ambitious agenda have been underwhelming, perplexing some who had expressed support for his new economic team.

五月罗塞夫因弹劾指控被停职时，特梅尔首先就任临时总统。尽管在吵成一团的国会中获得广泛支持。特梅尔雄心壮志的早期收获平平，让那些声言支持他新经济团队的人感到困惑。

“Temer’s government is requesting sacrifice from the population, but has pushed for wage increases for public servants who already enjoy job stability,” said Marcos Lisboa, the president of Insper, one of Brazil’s top business schools.

巴西顶级商业学校之一Insper的校长Marcos Lisboa说：“特梅尔政府要求人民做出牺牲，却给工作本来就稳定的公务员加薪。”

After the move drew criticism from allies seeking to curb public spending, Mr. Temer suspended the wage increases. But some analysts still expect the plan to advance at some point because it enjoys support from many legislators in the president’s Brazilian Democratic Movement Party.

这一举动招致主张削减公共支出的同盟者的反对，于是特梅尔叫停了涨薪计划。但分析人士认为这一计划仍将有所推进，因为总统所在的巴西民主运动党中，许多立法议员支持它。

Despite doubts about Mr. Temer’s government, many Brazilians place the blame for the country’s economic woes squarely on Ms. Rousseff and her Workers’ Party, which .

尽管许多巴西人对特梅尔政府疑虑重重，但他们将经济问题归罪于罗塞夫和他的工人党，工人党执政超过13年了。

“To put it simply, the left failed in Brazil,” said Jacques Kfouri, 62, a businessman in São Paulo. “Temer is fantastic compared with the alternatives. What he needs now is for others to support him.”

62岁的圣保罗商人Jacques Kfouri说：“说白了，左翼在巴西失败了。特梅尔相比其他人更棒，他现在需要的众人的支持。”

Others point out that Mr. Temer could get a boost in the coming months. The economy is still bad, with the authorities reporting on Wednesday that it contracted 0.6 percent from April to June. But some economists drew consolation from data that showed a rise in investments for the first time since 2013, perhaps signaling a floor to Brazil’s most severe economic crisis in decades.

有人指出特梅尔在未来几个月会有所收获。经济依旧糟糕，周三的官方报道称经济4到6月收缩了0.6%。但有经济学家认为数据显示投资自2013年以来第一次增长，这令人欣慰，可能标志着巴西数十年来最严重的经济危机见底了。

Either way, the fate of Mr. Temer’s ambitions will hinge on public sentiment and his ability to bargain with Congress. His approval ratings, which are almost as dismal as Ms. Rousseff’s, have been heavily influenced by the scandals swirling around him and his party.

不管怎么说，特梅尔雄图大略成败与否，要看公众情绪和他与国会的谈判能力上。他的支持率和罗塞夫一样令人沮丧，他和他所在党的丑闻对此有很大影响。

Earlier this year, Mr. Temer was convicted of violating limits on campaign financing. In something of a paradox, he is allowed to occupy the presidency as a result of Ms. Rousseff’s impeachment, but the conviction against him could make him ineligible to run for office for eight years.

今年初，特梅尔被控违反竞选筹资限额。这有点矛盾，罗塞夫被弹劾下台，他获准成为总统，可对他的指控可能让他8年内失去竞选竞选总统的资格。

Separately, various political figures and businessmen have tied Mr. Temer to colossal graft schemes around large public energy companies. 

另外，不同的政治人物和商人表明特梅尔与大型公共能源公司的诸多巨贪案有关。

A construction executive has testified that Mr. Temer was the beneficiary of a $300,000 bribe related to contracts at Eletronuclear, Brazil’s state-controlled  producer. Mr. Temer denies that.

一名工程总裁作证说，特梅尔是30万美元贿赂的受益人，这与电核集团的合同有关，该集团是国有控股的核能生产者，特梅尔否认了指控。

As Mr. Temer seeks to dispel doubts about his legitimacy, the corruption investigations that have shaken nearly the entire political class are steadily advancing. Several ministers in Mr. Temer’s cabinet over revelations that they sought to thwart the inquiries, raising the possibility that new scandals could emerge.

特梅尔试图打消对他合法性的怀疑，但几乎震撼整个政治阶层的腐败调查仍在稳步推进。特梅尔内阁的几个部长已因被披露试图阻挠调查而辞职，这增加了爆出新丑闻的可能。

“The biggest problem for this administration is the absolute unpredictability of what the investigations are still going to reveal because we are far from the end of this process,” said Rubens Ricupero, a retired diplomat and former finance minister.

退休外交官和前财政部长Rubens Ricupero说：“本届政府最大的问题是，调查仍在继续，这一进程远未结束，因此结果绝对没法预测。”

While Mr. Ricupero supported the impeachment process and considered Ms. Rousseff incompetent, he noted that new information coming out posed a risk that Mr. Temer is “going to run all the time because most of the people who are around him, in one way or another, have been under investigation for some time.”

Ricupero支持弹劾，认为罗塞夫不称职，他指出，新披露的信息也会给特梅尔带来风险，他要“不断撇清自己，因为他周围的多数人都或多或少的曾经接受调查。”

On Wednesday, in his first televised address after the Senate’s vote to oust Ms. Rousseff, Mr. Temer seemed to acknowledge the difficult road ahead, singling out the unemployment rate as an alarming problem.

周三，参议院投票罢黜罗塞夫后，特梅尔在第一场电视讲话中，承认前路艰险，特别指出失业率敲响了警钟。

“We have a horizon of two years and four months,” he said, referring to the time left in his current presidential term. “As of today, the demands will be much greater on this government.”

“我们有两年零四个月可供作为，”他说的是这一总统任期。“自今天起，对本届政府的要求会更高。”